Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Iran’s army chief says that US was involved in the attack on its consulate in Damascus, despite Washington clear rejections of these accusation.
Iran said it asked the US to “step aside” as the country prepares a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria, Bloomberg reports
There is a nasty RUMOR out there that the US cut a deal with Iran. If the US does not intervene to stop the attack, Iran will not attack American forces in Iraq. U.S. official: U.S. is on high alert in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli raid in Damascus
US has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack against Israel that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week
RUMINT. Movement of Iranian-backed militias has been noted in Southwestern Syria towards the border with Lebanon and on the outskirts of Damascus.
Any sign some of the thousands of Iranians who 'crossed the border' illegally into the US are mobilizing?
What a crazy 48 hours. In a way glad I didn’t post yesterday, as I would have spent more time today retracing my steps on a number of items.
Today is the big eclipse day. Will the world end (/sarc).
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Anti-Israel protesters in Dearborn, Michigan, closed out Ramadan by chanting, “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” during an International Al-Quds Day rally.
Video of the protest went viral on social media Sunday, showing activists condemning both Israel and America in the harshest of terms. Activist Tarek Bazzi of the Hadi Institute said chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” were only logical.
OBSERVATION - This growing aspect of future CW2 scenarios - islamic uprisings has been inflamed by the recent Gaza war. One need only to look to Europe to see the impacts of the flipping of the European culture to that of Islam. The upper midwest is ground zero for the invasion and it has grown to other major metro areas - bolstered by the usual white liberal suspects.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
Ramadan ending
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has stated US involvement in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This big hit took out a lot of key IRGC top leaders - the ones Iran would look to in order to manage any Hezbollah war with Israel. Technically, hitting the diplomatic compound constitutes an attack on sovereign territory as well. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly.
“While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said in prepared remarks for a speech to a group of Fed watchers in New York. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run.”
OBSERVATION - A CYA move by some on the Fed board?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
In an effort to push back China’s influence and expand its presence in Oceania, the U.S. is renovating Lombrum Naval Base on the Island of Los Negros in Papua New Guinea.
The U.S. recently announced that the U.S. Navy is looking at three projects for Lombrum: a 7,556-square-foot Regional Maritime Training Center; a 7,351-square-foot small Boat Team and Boson Facility; and overhauling a 118-foot-long deteriorated small boat jetty. The combined expected price tag for these projects ranges from $11 million to $25 million.
“These…projects will support the PNGDF (Papua New Guinea Defence Force), maritime security operations, U.S. military personnel participating in joint exercises, and USINDOPACOM Theater Campaign Plan with various critical facilities located at Lombrum Naval Base.” reads the announcement.
The U.S. announced plans to redevelop Lombrum naval base in 2018, when former Vice President Mike Pence, announced that the U.S. would partner with both Australia and Papua New Guinea on the initiative.
Currently, Lombrum naval base is one of six facilities on Papua New Guinea to which U.S. personnel have an unimpeded access under the Defense Cooperation Agreement signed between Washington and Port Moresby in 2023.
https://news.usni.org/2024/04/06/u-s-set-to-expand-naval-base-in-papua-new-guinea
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Another study, this time by Pfizer affiliated researchers, indicates a substantially increased risk of spontaneous miscarriages/abortions following the jab for pregnant women. This correlation was know as far back as 2020, but was kept swept under the rug. Even this report the ‘researchers’ do all they can to try to separate the jab from the miscarriages/abortions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
A group of white farmers in Texas is asking a federal judge to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture from using race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits to determine who gets disaster and pandemic farm aid and how much, arguing the agency’s current administration of eight emergency funding programs is unconstitutionally discriminatory.
“When natural disasters strike, they don’t discriminate based on race and sex. Neither should the Department of Agriculture,” the group of farmers wrote in a court filing made public Monday.
The farmers, represented the nonprofit legal firm called the Southeastern Legal Foundation, asked a judge to issue an emergency injunction from the U.S. District Court in Amarillo, Texas, to stop any additional awards from being made on the basis of race and gender or other liberal standards.
“Enjoining USDA from using race, sex, or progressive factoring when administering the programs is warranted because Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits of their claims that: (1) the programs, as currently administered, are unconstitutional; (2) USDA lacks statutory authority to run the programs in their current form; and (3) USDA failed to adequately explain changes in calculating payments when implementing progressive factoring,” the motion stated.
The farmers said the Biden administration has taken roughly $25 billion in disaster and pandemic aid approved by Congress for farmers in eight programs and devised a system to make awards based on race, gender or other “socially disadvantaged” traits. Such decision-making violates the Constitution’s Fifth Amendment and the Administrative Procedures Act.
“The Constitution promises equal treatment to all Americans regardless of their race or sex,” the court filing also reads. “It also promises the separation of powers. USDA broke both promises through the disaster and pandemic relief programs challenged here.”
OBSERVATION - Preferential treatment = buying votes. Also linkage to CW2 as the govt is purposefully trying to put a wedge in between blacks and whites.
Illegal Immigration –
The Governor of Texas is sounding the alarm about a potential “drone war” erupting between the US and Mexican cartels across the border.
Gov. Abbott:
“Let me foreshadow also another concern we’re gonna have really soon, it’s already kind of beginning right now, and that’s gonna be drone wars.
The capability of the cartels about getting things across the border through drones already is extraordinary and they’re gonna be more aggressive, more sophisticated in the drone attacks.”
Source: Newsweek
OBSERVATION - This is also linked to Terrorism and CW2 topics as well. biden et al have basically surrendered the border region to cartels and those cartels are starting to fight each other for control.
China –
Six warships and four aircraft from Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States conducted a joint patrol in the South China Sea on Sunday following Chinese harassment of Philippine Navy resupply missions in the region.
Officially dubbed the Australia – Japan – Philippines – United States Maritime Cooperative Activity, these joint patrols began last November in response to violent incidents between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea, particularly around Scarborough Shoal and the resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal.
Sunday’s joint patrol not only marks the first combined multinational patrol but also the first time Japanese vessels and aircraft participated. Tokyo and Manila have expanded their defense ties over the last year, most notably through trilateral exchanges with the U.S. and the provision of naval radars to the Philippine Navy via Japan’s new military aid program. According to the Financial Times, the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. are expected to strengthen their security cooperation during this week’s trilateral summit in Washington.
Alongside the number of involved nations, the joint patrol also included the most assets to date. Warships included Littoral Combat Ship USS Mobile (LCS-26), HMAS Warramunga (FFH-152), JS Akebono (DD-108), BRP Gregorio Del Pilar (PS-15), BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) and BRP Valentin Diaz (PS-177). Shipborne helicopters as well as Two P-8 Poseidon aircraft from Australia and the U.S. were also involved.
OBSERVATION - I posted this exercise a couple days ago, this brings more information on the size and extent. This is a growing shot across the bow of China and its aggressive tactics in the South China Sea region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said Friday it had carried out a test of an underwater nuclear weapons system, claiming it was facing severe security threats from the allies. Claim was made by Kim Son Gyong, North Korea’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, as cited by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency on Monday.
OBSERVATION - There is no reported evidence of such a subsurface nuclear test being reported by either SK or Japan. It is likely referring to a recent announcement that NK has developed a torpedo shaped drone capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Pacific Fleet warships are starting to arrive in the Mediterranean with increased activity of the Admiral Grigorovich, Ufa and Kildin. These vessels were noted last week passing though the Red Sea region.
Logistics –
The ongoing floodings in the Russian city of Orsk, Region Orenburg, which were caused by collapsing dams, rendered the local oil refinery (Orsknefteorgsintez) inoperable. Orsk oil refinery is the only one in the Orenburg Region with a design capacity of 36 million barrels of oil per year
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Although Russia is suffering severe losses in its current offensive in eastern Ukraine, it appears to be currently able to sustain those losses thru growth of conscription efforts. However, analysts suggest that those efforts may soon be grinding to a halt as they run out of easily conscriptable people.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 24 Shahed drone, launched by Russia overnight. Odesa, Krynky, and Zaporizhzhia appear to be targeted regions with some hits.
Fierce fighting continues to be reported on the Avdiivka and Bakhmut fronts.
Kharkiv continues to be hammered by artillery, missiles and glide bombs.
IAEA experts confirmed physical impact of drone attacks at ZNPP today, including at 1 of its 6 reactors. One casualty reported. Damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, but this is a serious incident with potential to undermine integrity of the reactor’s containment system. Both sides claim it was the others drones that hit the power plant.
Outlook —
Kharkiv is facing the devastation due to shortage of ADA assets. It has been largely without power for more than a week and Russia is not picky about what it hits - mostly civilian apartment complexes and other sites like stores. Kharkiv may also be facing NK ballistic missiles shipped to Russia for use and testing.
Continued good weather for the next couple weeks indicates that the hard Russia armored push in the east is far from over. Russia continues to shoot its self in the foot by charging into armor kill zones with an abundance of mines and lacking artillery support to suppress Ukraine AT fire. Drones and diminished Ukrainian artillery is capable of dispatching Russians that survive the anti-armor hits.
These attacks are generally at a company sized level, though battalion sized assaults have occurred in the past few weeks. They also appear to be solo operations, with no coordinated supporting attacks, just charging across the open fields hoping to get to the other side to offload infantry and get back.
Generally, things have stalled out across the rest of the fronts. The deep war is at a pause as well as Russia may be considering moving their now vulnerable strategic bomber forces even further to the east to get out of range of the new Ukraine long range drones. Absent Black Sea support, the strategic bomber forces have been bearing the brunt of the deep attacks lately.
Innovation of weapons systems are at a much higher pace. Reports of wider deployment of Ukraine jet powered drones is catching the new too. These drones fly very fast and low, making it difficult for ADA guns to hit and forcing ADA units to use previous missiles to attempt to hit them. I expect to see these become even more of a factor in hitting western portions of Russia.
I don’t see any current sector facing imminent collapse from the Russian offensive. It may well have to continue to locally give up terrain, but Russia is having to pay a high price for its gains.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- War is entering its 7th month
- IDF pulling most of its forces out of Gaza
- Rumors of intense US pressures for both sides to agree to a more substantive ceasefire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Reports in Israeli media early Monday morning indicate that significant progress in a hostage release deal in Cairo may have been reached.
N12 News reported “cautious optimism” regarding negotiations as the Israeli delegation returns from Egypt with the latest details. An Egyptian source reported that all sides are close to agreement on the terms of the final deal. The Egyptian state-affiliated Al-Qahera news channel reported that there was broad agreement on the basic points of a deal.
However, soon after those reports were published, a senior Israeli source told the news outlet that a deal may not be imminent, stating: “The distance is still great.”
***
There is reportedly evidence that Hamas tricked Israel into hitting the convoy carrying cooks for relief operations in Gaza. This will have little bearing on the current outcry, but if better substantiate, could get some of the PR bleeding under control.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF on Sunday announced that it had concluded the active invasion stage of the war for now while leaving open the possibility of a future new invasion of Rafah in deep southern Gaza.
In terms of IDF soldiers, this means that the IDF has withdrawn all of Division 98 from Khan Yunis in southern Gaza while maintaining one plus brigades - the Nahal brigade and portions of Brigade 401 – in northern and central Gaza.
Although a top IDF official said that this change had nothing to do with US pressure, the timing was unmistakable in coming right after the IDF’s disastrous mistaken killing of seven humanitarian aid workers last week.
The decision also came less than two days after Israel opened the Erez Crossing and Ashdod port to transfer humanitarian aid, decisions made under threat by the US of potentially losing weapons support after Jerusalem had refused these requests from Washington for months.
Critically, this means that Palestinians can, on one hand, move freely within southern Gaza and Khan Yunis and that there is a complete vacuum for preventing a return of Hamas governance, but the IDF is keeping northern and central Gaza cut off from the south.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-795724
The Israel Defense Forces says it has “declined” the number of its forces in southern Gaza as it regroups for its next stage in the war
Israeli army Chief of Staff Halevi notes that “we are far from finishing” the war in Gaza. He adds that there are still plenty of forces in Gaza and that a war this long can’t involve the same amount of forces at all times
Gallant states that forces are preparing for “follow-up missions”, similar to the one carried out in Shifa Hospital wherever needed, including in Rafah
Haaretz, citing military officials: The army’s withdrawal from combat sites in the southern Gaza Strip was due to combat fatigue and not as signs of good faith toward the prisoner exchange deal negotiations.
***
The discussions between Israeli and US officials regarding an Israeli advance into Rafah are set to continue this week.
The talks are expected to be held on the professional level, while only next week, if at all, the Israeli delegation, which will probably consist of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, will leave.
Diplomatic sources predicted in a conversation with Kan Resht Bet radio that no action would be taken concerning Rafah until the discussions with the Americans ended.
It was further reported that the operation in Rafah would depend on whether a hostage deal is reached. Yesterday, Mossad Director David Barnea spoke and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar met with CIA Director Burns and the Qatari Prime Minister. Before their meeting, the Hamas delegation met with the mediators.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388106
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery continue to conduct strikes throughout S Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks.
Jerusalem Post: The Israeli army is conducting a major maneuver along the coast and in the Western Galilee in northern Israel this morning to prepare for fighting on different fronts.
Israeli Chief of Staff: We are preparing for the possibility of war breaking out with Lebanon
***
Three people killed, including a field commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in an Israeli strike on Al Sultanya village in southern Lebanon, according to several sources.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran reportedly has conveyed a message to America via Oman; threatening to directly attack Israel unless the war in Gaza is halted, displaced people return, and the army withdraws.
***
A report in Jadeh Iran News quoted an unnamed source stating that Iran told the United States it would refrain from retaliating against Israel over the killing of IRGC senior commander Mohammed Zahedi if a ceasefire agreement is reached during negotiations.
Analysts from both Iran and Israel suggest that Iran is hesitant to retaliate against Israel, fearing such actions could lead to further escalation.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hostage-deal/2024/04/08/id/1160111/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
Security forces arrested at least 23 people in several towns in Hebron in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
One moment Israel is poised to enter Rafah, the next they are pulling out of Gaza leaving one brigade to prevent south to north movement.
Israeli and Iranian forces on high alert for war and now rumors that Iran is backing off in order not to disrupt ceasefire talks.
IDK, I don’t think biden has the clout to force these actions by both countries. So what do I think at this stage?
The Gaza pullout make sense in the face of a potential hot war with Iran and Hezbollah. They have Hamas pretty well contained in Rafah and the recent Shifa Hospital operation has Israel sensing that they can get more bang for their buck by launching lighting raids on Hamas concentration that they feel ‘safe’ in. The units pulled out will have some rest, refit and rearm time and likely serve as a ready reserve force for any action against Hezbollah.
Iran appears to be attempting to weasel out of an attack on Israel proper, probably now looking at hitting Israeli embassies and interests in other parts of the world. They probably looked at the tea leaves and realized they don’t have the ADA assets in the quantities and capabilities to adequately defend against an Israeli counter strike. The goodwill ‘gesture’ under the guise of not wanting to affect any of the ongoing ceasefire talks is likely a smokescreen for its public consumption to cover inaction.
Did the biden policy change of recent have any influence? Possibly on the short term. The leverage was the death of the aid workers, now questionably have been used by Hamas to generate such an attack. But that will be short lived, like the hospital uproars. Israel clearly states that Rafah is still in the bulls eye and that the current withdrawal of troops from Gaza is also serving to prepare them to go into Rafah.
So what’s for forecast now?
I expect IDF to continue strikes via air and artillery against Hezbollah positions and Hezbollah to continue sniping at Israel.
Gaza ground action will decline to a degree, but naval, air and artillery fire based on near constant air surveillance and HUMINT will continue to hit identified Hamas targets should they get overconfident that they have ‘won’ and come out of hiding.
The “Islamic Resistance” remains relatively quiet, pending final Iranian/Hezbollah actions.
Yes, the wild card continues to be Iran. It would not be beyond them to issue the declaration that they are not going to hit Israel only to hit Israel - strategic lying is a major component of islam. With Ramadan now over, any constraints from that holiday are over, so this next week is the fish or cut bait moment.
If Iran continues to stand down and the ceasfire/hostage talks break down (and Hamas shows no interest in lowering their demands), I expect that Israel will then make the next step and take out Rafah. Right now the gross global political climate is pushing hard for a ceasefire - regardless of hostage release . When Hamas rejects or demands outrageous concessions that Israel will not agree to, game on in Rafah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
See Israel above for analysis. Clock is ticking and the next week may be decisive for the region.
***
Heavy Fighting is being reported between several Groups of Unknown Gunmen and IRGC Security Forces near the Department of Intelligence within the city of Chah Bahar in Southeastern Iran, with sirens also sounding at the Naval Base in the city.
OBSERVATION — Appears to be a continuation of the scattered fighting reported a few days ago.
Misc of Note –
Enjoy the eclipse if you can. One word about cloud cover, in 1997 when I observed my first total eclipse in SW Montana, the sky was partly overcast - and that worked to our advantage permitting us to observe the initial stages of the eclipse using the clouds as a filter to protect our eyes. Just minutes before totality, the sky cleared and we got an unobscured view of the eclipse. So enjoy.
***
Airliner incidents with parts flying off and other issues are climbing to a level of beyond background noise. Yesterday a cowling on a 737 blew off at takeoff, requiring an emergency landing. With the high visibility of such incidents now on the multiple times per week scale, ground operations for major airlines almost have to be increasingly anal over properly securing and checking the planes out. Only the growing perception is that they aren’t.
Now we have another large cargo ship losing power as it approaches a major bridge. Coincidence? Or is this the potential beginning of a lot of small wrenches being tossed into the gears of key sectors - air transportation and shipping.
For those who’ve followed here over the years, I’m cautious when going down these rabbit holes. In todays modern technology with everyone having a cell phone/camera and such wide spread outlets for ‘news’, the increase in reports may not equal an actual increase above historic instances - because it wasn’t reported.
So IMHO, the boeing airliner incidents are on the verge of crossing out of tinfoil hat into deserving to be followed and examined more closely. The latest shipping incident should be examined very closely and quickly in order to prevent further loss of power incidents at key bridges crossing over harbor entrances. Perhaps an increased requirement for accompanying tug boats for instance until into open water as an example.
Companies that insure ships should have that information on shipping. Hopefully some intelligence groups or journalists will take a look at the numbers.
Well, since you are reading this the world didn’t come to an end. Don’t worry, mankind is doing its level best to make up for the failure of the moon.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Last year, the legislature and governor of Minnesota added a new category of human rights called “gender identity” to the Minnesota Human Rights Act. The result has been an unleashing of tyranny against Christian schools and churches throughout the state.
As of now, the state of Minnesota can tell churches and schools, at least those with 501(c)3 status, what they can and cannot say about “gender identity.” They can also, according to the law, force churches and schools of a religious nature what to say or do on other topics, too.
As it stands, the new law criminalizes the use of truthful pronouns as opposed to the ones constantly being made up by LGBTs. It also criminalizes others perceived as derogatory language that refuses to play along with LGBT delusions, i.e., transgender surgeries and puberty blockers for children.
“If pastors, teachers, or any other Minnesotans speak or write in opposition to the use of wrong-sex hormones, transgender surgery, or puberty blockers for minors, can they be charged with a crime under state law?” asks The Federalist’s Allen Quist about the implications of the new law.
“If parents try to protect their minor children from such practices, can they be charged with a crime? Can their minor children be removed from their custody if parents refuse to follow such laws? And can a transgender-identifying person be denied employment by a Christian school, church, or other Christian organization, such as counseling centers, charities, or pro-life groups?”
OBSERVATION - Back in the “Before Years”, this activity would have been seen simply as ‘culture wars’, however, with the rise of progressive marxism, especially since 2020, the govt and laws have been weaponized against Christians and like thinking individuals. Laws like this one are being pressed forward in other blue states, where free speech is only allowed when it matches the govt mandated narrative. New, it remains to be seen how well this will stand up to constitutional scrutiny, an effort guaranteed to take years. In the interim, barring fed court holds, significant damage can be done, with no repercussions to the governing elites. As noted in the article, Minnesota has become a dangerous zone for Christians.
One has to wonder if they will be as aggressive against the growing islamic population on these same issues?
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 9, 2024
Ramadan has ended
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said his bank has prepared for interest rates to jump because of “persistent inflationary pressures”.
Central banks around the world have been busy raising rates in a bid to dampen rising prices.
But with price rises in some countries now gradually slowing, central banks may begin to lower interest rates.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Mr Dimon said that the bank was ready for a “very broad range” of rates, from 2% to 8% or even higher, potentially pushed up because of high government spending and the need to curb price rises.
“All of the following factors appear to be inflationary: ongoing fiscal spending, remilitarization of the world, restructuring of global trade, capital needs of the new green economy, and possibly higher energy costs,” Mr Dimon wrote.
The US Federal Reserve will make its next decision on which way interest rates will move at the end of the month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68769561
OBSERVATION - “persistant inflationary pressures” Key phrase here. The Fed seems to want to overlook this indicator. Just goes to show how unstable the economy continues to be.
The expectation is that it will hold rates at the current level with the first cut potentially coming in June. The European Central Bank is also expected to make its first cut in June.
***
Persistent news that biden et al want to keep covered is that food prices have gone up on average about 40% overall since 2019. The ruling elite in the WH can only lie about it in order to try to keep it hidden.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The World Health Organization announces they are developing a Bird Flu Vaccine
“The WHO are continuing to engage with manufacturers to make sure of needed, supplies of vaccines would be available for Global use”
OBSERVATION - Again, a wuhan like scenario is developing where a ‘vaccine’ is being created absent the virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Lawfare surrounding Trump is escalating this week with more court hearings and NY rejecting his bond on his appeal on the fraud decision.
Illegal Immigration –
“Replacement migration” used to be a conspiracy theory. Now facts are proving it to be real as US businesses are dumping citizens for these illegals who will work for less because the govt is covering most of their bills. However, very few of them want to work once they get fat and sassy in their free living here.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russia warns that a German military presence in Lithuania would escalate tensions. Lithuania views a German force contingent of 5,000 troops by 2027 as a useful bulwark against potential aggression from Russia in the Baltic Sea and from Russia via Belarus This is a first deployment of its for Germany since World War II
Logistics –
Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence took credit for the sabotage which caused the fire on the Russian missile ship Serpukhov at the Baltiysk naval base in occupied Kaliningrad. The incident took place on April 7th, 2024.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 4 S-400 missiles at Druzhkivka.
Ukrainian drones broke past Russian air defense and struck the Borisoglebsk Military Aviation Pilot Training Base in Voronezh region.
Ground assaults by Russia continue and are largely defeated by Ukraine defenses.
Bakhmut -
The battle for Chasiv Yar continues to heat up and Russian forces continue to press on the town, taking heavy losses.
Outlook —
The assaults on the Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar) and Avdiivak fronts continue to be fierce with Russian clawing out gains after heavy losses. The remaining ‘best units’ have been used in these sectors but it is uncertain just how long they can sustain heavy losses of personnel and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas says it has allowed many of the hostages to be killed, complicating ceasefire negotiations.
- Iran continues to threaten retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on IRGC leadership in the embassy compound in Damascus.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
A Hamas official said Monday no progress was made at a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo also attended by delegations from Israel, Qatar, and the U.S., shortly after Egyptian sources said headway had been made on the agenda.
“There is no change in the position of the occupation and therefore, there is nothing new in the Cairo talks,” the Hamas official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. “There is no progress yet.”
A Palestinian official close to mediation efforts told Reuters that deadlock continued to reign over Israel’s refusal to end the war, withdraw its forces from Gaza, allow hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians to return to their homes and lift a 17-year-old blockade to allow speedy reconstruction.
These steps take precedence over Israel’s prime demand for a release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Regarding the exchange of prisoners, Hamas was and is willing to be more flexible, but there is no flexibility over our...main demands,” he told Reuters.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-terrorists-hostages/2024/04/08/id/1160112/
According to Yaron Avraham on Channel 12 Israel news, Hamas has told the mediators that it does not have 40 hostages in the humanitarian category that are still alive. That is a category of women, children, the elderly, and the sick. The number that they say is alive, which is significantly lower, has not been made public.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a short video statement says “there is a date” for an Israeli army offensive in southern Gaza’s Rafah
Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir says Netanyahu will no longer have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister if there is not a ‘large-scale offensive in Rafah’.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
A barrage of 15 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the Hanita area in northern Israel a short while ago, according to the Israeli army.The rockets all hit open areas, the Israeli army says.There are no reports of damage or injuries
Israeli artillery shelling targets at Tal Al-Jabiya and the surroundings of the town of Tasil in the Daraa countryside, according to local sources in the governorate
Four missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Israeli army positions in the Lebanese Shebaa Farms
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army bombed sites in Quneitra, Syria
US intelligence sources estimate that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel directly, preferring instead to rely on its proxies closer to Israel’s borders, CNN reported.
The sources, which CNN did not name, told the news outlet that Iran does not want to significantly escalate the situation, due to concerns regarding potential retaliation both by Israel and the US.
The report, which contradicts previous US and Israeli assessments that an attack by Iran is “inevitable,” also said that Iran is pushing its proxies to launch large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel in the near future.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388175
***
Iranian Foreign Minister: We confirm that the coming days will be difficult for Israel
Iranian Foreign Minister: Punishing Israel is certain and it will receive the necessary response
Iran’s foreign minister: We communicated to the US through appropriate diplomatic means that it is responsible as the full supporter of Israel
***
CNN reports that “U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel, using drones and missiles, and that they could attack as soon as this week.”
****
Iran has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) in its Central Desert for missile activity, urging civil aviation to steer clear of the area. This activity could be related to military exercises, but one can never be too sure. The NOTAM was announced on April 8, 2024, with a specific timeframe for the no-fly zone set between April 10 at 3:30 am and April 12 at 10:30 am.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USCENTCOM forces successfully engaged and destroyed an air defense system with two missiles ready to launch, a ground control station in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, and one unmanned aerial system launched by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists from Yemen over the Red Sea.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey restricts the export of some products to Israel over the invasion of Gaza, including aluminum, steel, cement, and chemical pesticides as of today
——— FORECAST ————————-
Iran is employing a passive/aggressive approach in its threats to Israel. One time they aren’t going to hit , the next time they are. Probably the most certain aspect is that the “Islamic Resistance” will launch just about everything they have that can range Israel in one large blitz. This would give Iran a fig leaf covering to say that they didn’t strike Israel proper.
However, the NOTAM issued by Iran has folk scratching their heads. Are they telegraphing a strike or is this some concurrent display of missile power for arab consumption?
For Iran to make all this bluster and nothing significant happen would cause additional loss of face and prestige. Something is going to happen - count on it. And it will likely happen very soon.
Rafah is not off the hook, it is a key piece of Israeli military goals and should Iran balk in their declared retaliation against Israel, Rafah will be hit. To not do so would grant Hamas a degree of victory and enable an enhanced effort to regain control of regions of Gaza. IMHO once the Iranian issue is dealt with, attention will once again be visited on Rafah.
Hamas is not making their case any easier by holding rigidly to their demands on one hand while admitting that they’ve allowed most of the hostages to be killed. That admission in itself will redouble Israeli fury when the Rafah operation begins.
As for now, Israel continues air, artillery and naval strikes on Hamas et al targets in Gaza, forcing them to keep their heads down. Israel even took out a Hamas rocket launcher embedded in a designated ‘relief’ zone - showing that Hamas prefers to continue to use civilians as shields - and the pious UN turns a blind eye to it.
When will this counter strike occur and how large will it be (in part depending on who participates in it). Seems best guesses are sometime this week. Ramadan is past and pressure is likely building within the islamist fanatics in Iranian leadership to retaliate.
Syria -
RUMINT - Syrian President Assad and his family evacuated from Damascus and transferred to a resort near Khmeimim Russian Military base.
Central / South America General-
Jorge Glas, the detained former vice president of Ecuador, was hospitalized on Monday, barely three days after his arrest during a highly controversial raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito, where he was seeking refuge.
Glas fell ill at a prison in Guayaquil, prison authorities said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.
***
Brazilian head of the Supreme Court has launched a fight with Musk and “X” over the refusal to censor/block internet free speech on X by Brazilians. This is developing into an major, global free speech issue.
Misc of Note –
Now with all the hullabaloo over regarding yesterday’s solar eclipse, I’d like to look at a key point. All the quasi-panic reflects the internal thinkings of the sheeple that something evil this way comes. The ‘new normal’ is not happy days are here again. Unable to rationalize away from the mind numbing propaganda of the MSM, many have grasped at serious tinfoil ideas.
In our post-wuhan world, inflation, jobs, global insecurity/wars, illegals, globalism etc. have affected our perceptions greatly about govt and its involvement in today’s woes - even inclined to view the govt as the source of the problems - deliberately. So it isn’t too much of a surprise to me to see such a widespread glut of over concern over a routine solar eclipse as a sign of impending judgement from God.
Now for those who are more prophetically minded, let me add this. Just as the big “blood moons” talk fell apart like a house of cards a number years ago, seeking ‘omens’ to interpret in place of the bible is fraught with potential errors - errors that make biblical understanding of the ‘times and seasons’ befuddled and unclear. In fact, reading ‘omens’ is forbidden by scripture, but in today’s largely scripturally illiterate masses that gets overlooked by the sensationalism of the claims.
To be straight forward, the bible is very clear that society will disintegrate in the period prior to the return of Christ. All the societal ills we see today, growing at near exponential rates and with clearly demonic support as compared to the trend in the “Before Years” should turn every one’s head. Though America’s founding fathers used scriptural principles to form the foundation for this nation and called for God’s blessing in the endeavor, the bible is also clear as to how God will deal with rebellious peoples and nations - the US is not exempt on that count.
Real life actions tracking with real life biblical prophecies should be the norm. Reading into common astronomical events should not. When God places a sign in the heavens, as prophesied, it will be unmistakable and no speculation will be needed.
Yes, I expect the imminent return of Jesus, and as He clearly stated, there will be no precursors needing to be fulfilled prior to His return in the air for His believers. Reading a solar eclipse as a ‘sign’ likely has done more to hurt this doctrine of imminency that anything recently. And that is not a good thing.
There is a storm coming and we better be ready for it.
I suspect top people in the Sexual Weirdo Community are in kahoots with the people working to destroy our country along with mid level 'leaders' in the 'homeless industry complex' who recruit street level activists. ...
Rampant aberrant sex forced on society is one of the goals of communism- to break down society
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The following point to the emphasis that the WEF and affiliated globalists have to silence Christianity and in particular Biblical Christianity because of the adherence of followers to the absolute truths taught in the bible and how that throws up roadblocks in the global effort to subjugate humanity and replace God with their globalist agendas.
The Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021 has created a new criminal offense of “stirring up hatred” against individuals due to one or more of certain protected characteristics: age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, transgender identity or variations in sex characteristics (intersex individuals).
“The law seems to be designed to stop free speech and impose the LGBTQ agenda on all of Scotland,” Franklin Graham posted on Facebook.
On April 1, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Scottish Parliament to protest the law and its potential effects on free speech.
A person breaks the new law if he or she “behaves in a manner” or “communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive.” Additionally, one of these two requirements must be met: “in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons” with a protected characteristic, or “a reasonable person would consider the behavior or the communication of the material to be likely to result in hatred being stirred up against such a group.”
Many have objected to this law, expressing concern that the wording of it could easily allow transgender activists to weaponize the law against those who disagree with LGBTQ ideology. While there is a section in the bill addressing free speech and expression, the concern is still very widespread.
https://harbingersdaily.com/designed-to-stop-free-speech-new-scotland-hate-crime-law-sparks-outcry/
OBSERVATION - This is but one of many new laws designed to silence Christians on a wide variety of subjects. In this instance, biblical opposition to the LGBT agenda. Similar laws springing up all across the globe. The censorship agenda is very much alive and well here in the US as well. Proponents seek to censor and punish individuals on a wide range of topics from LGBT etc, to global warming, etc.
A closer example is found emerging in Canada -
“Bill C-367 eliminates the “religious exemption” in Section 319 of the Criminal Code, which states: “No person shall be convicted of a [hate crime] offence… if, in good faith, the person expressed or attempted to establish by an argument an opinion on a religious subject or an opinion based on a belief in a religious text.” By eliminating this exemption, Bill C-367 will empower police to treat religious Canadians as hate-criminals if they criticize any identifiable groups.“
from The Peoples Voice:
The Trudeau government has introduced a bill that could land Christians in prison for quoting the Bible or expressing a traditional faith-based opinion if the Canadian government deems it “promotion of hatred or antisemitism.”
OBSERVATION - Definition of terms are purposefully left fuzzy for a reason, so the law can be wrapped around what ever the globalist leftists desire to silence.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Conservative lawmakers are calling for an end to warrantless surveillance of Americans ahead of a House floor vote on Wednesday to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
The bill, titled the “Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act,” would extend section 702 of FISA, which “authorizes the targeted collection of foreign intelligence information from non-U.S. persons located abroad,” according to the FBI.
OBSERVATION - The no warrant provisions of the current FISA laws have been grossly abused by the FBI to spy on Americans, to the tune of hundreds of thousands of times. Wray claims new procedures are in place to prevent abuse, but this is just the fox watching the hen house. Current projections is that FISA will be reauthorized without the warrant requirements. A continuation down the path of tyrannical government spying on citizens at their whim and pleasure.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
Ramadan has ended and today is Eid al-Fitr
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
***
Alexander Mercurio is now facing a federal charge of attempting to provide material support or resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization after the FBI says he devised a plan to “incapacitate his father, restrain him using handcuffs, and steal his firearms to use for maximum casualties” in an attack he had been planning to carry out in the resort city on Sunday, April 7.
“The defendant allegedly pledged loyalty to ISIS and sought to attack people attending churches in Idaho, a truly horrific plan which was detected and thwarted by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a statement.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6814
OBSERVATION - Radicalized ‘lone wolf’ attack. It is important to note that his journey to the dark side began during the wuhan lockdowns forcing the then student Mercurio studying from home.
Economy-
Gasoline prices in the United States have soared to a six-month high, reaching an average of $3.60 per gallon, marking a more than 50% increase since President Joe Biden took office, Breitbart reported.
OBSERVATION - This is one of the often mentioned “upward pressures” on inflation. Increased transportation costs ripple throughout the economy, pushing already high prices even higher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG, currently in the S China sea region, is enroute to the Red Sea region where it is expected to relieve the USS Eisenhower CSG of duties.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
(FO) Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned state public health officials to prepare for possible avian flu outbreaks. However, the threat to the public remains low.
“We have never seen this scale of infections in mammals” and there are few options to intervene in mammal avian flu outbreaks, Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier said.
OBSERVATION - My concern level remains very high given the telegraphing over the past year of disease “X” and the current presidential political season. Mutation of the H5N1 mutates to become more transmissible from human to human, and respiratory infections increase is at the top of the list. Natural or man-made adaptation of the virus both probable.
Illegal Immigration –
Buried under all the other hubris of the day, still going on at record pace.
China –
Taiwan’s annual war game exercises this year will feature simulating a scenario in which China turns one of its frequent military drills around the island into an actual attack, a report says.
Tung Chih-hsing, the head of the joint combat planning department of Taiwan’s defense ministry, made the announcement during a news conference Tuesday, according to Reuters. He reportedly added that the drills would integrate naval, air, coast guard forces, drones and shore-mounted anti-ship weapons to establish an “attack and kill chain” at sea.
The Han Kuang exercises are set to begin in April with eight days of tabletop drills followed by combat exercises in July, Reuters is reporting, citing the defense ministry.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/taiwan-war-games-simulate-china-turning-military-drill-attack-report
OBSERVATION - This is not a novel tactic. The arab Egyptian and Syrian armies pulled off a similar surprise attack on Israel in 1973 - the Yon Kipper War. What is still lacking is the build up of transports to carry the hundreds of thousand of Chinese soldiers to the island. China’s air and naval forces could attack Taiwan infrastructure / military targets, but that would trigger global response that could make the follow-on amphibious operation very difficult to do.
My current operation scenario would see such an exercise transition into a blockade of the island. Recent exercises in the past have given glimpses of what that blockade would look like. Probability of a blockade versus invasion are much much higher.
***
Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou on Wednesday that outside inference could not stop the “family reunion” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and that there are no issues that cannot be discussed.
Since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists, no serving Taiwanese leader has visited China.
Ma, president from 2008 to 2016, last year became the first former Taiwanese leader to visit China, and is now on his second trip to the country, at a time of simmering military tension across the strait.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-xi-jinping-taiwan/2024/04/10/id/1160408/
OBSERVATION - Xi views reunification as a juggernaut that cannot be stopped and will be accomplished by hook or by crook.
Ma is a senior member of Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), which in January lost the presidential election for the third time in a row, but has no official party position.
The KMT advocates close ties with China and dialog, but strongly denies being pro-Beijing.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Massive flooding in the Urals and Siberian regions due to a rain on snow event has shut down oil refineries as well as key, strategic early warning radar sites.
Logistics –
Lukoil reports re-launching processing unit at Volgograd refinery after it was attacked by drones on 4th February. Unit at Nizhniy Novgorod refinery set to relaunch 2nd quarter
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 17 Shahed drones overnight. Focus of the attacks appears to have been the Mykolaiv / Odesa region.
Russian aviation continues to launch guided glide bombs towards Kharkiv.
Ukraine is losing its air defense deterrent in the Chaziv Yar region as Russian SU 25 ground attack fighters are now flying unopposed over the city launching air strikes.
Outlook —
The dominance of Russia air power over Chaziv Yar is very concerning. In the past these aircraft would be smoldering piles of metal in a nearby field. Serious lack of manpad AD systems. Russia has also accelerated the development of very large glide bombs - up to 3000 kg of “boom” being used to target Kharkiv as well as key offensive fronts in the Bakhumt and Avdiivka sectors.
The heroic little drone air force Ukraine has continues to nail Russian tanks, APC and other vehicles, stalling and even turning back major Russian attacks. As techniques and technology advances, reports are that Ukraine is shifting to more of the bomb dropping variety over the kamikaze drones - due to supply pressures and efficiency.
Russia’s desperation to counter these drones recently resulted in the now famous ‘turtle’ tank appearance on the front. A Russian tank is covered top and sides by steel plates to stop drone strikes. This may be an attempt to replace the infamous ‘cope cages’ currently over portions of tanks and other armor vehicle.
Russia has also increasingly tried switching to essentially golf cart sized buggies from China to race to offload positions for infantry. Now they are locally attempting the same with motorcycle mounted infantry. Both slightly faster than armor and able to get past mines, but the exposure is severe. War attempts unique innovations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- No progress on ceasefire / hostage talks as Hamas continues to reject proposals.
- Today is Eid al-Fitr
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Biden has called on Israel to unilaterally agree to a six-to-eight week ceasefire, in an apparent retreat from his administration’s stance that conditioned a truce in Gaza on Hamas releasing some of the hostages it’s holding in the Strip
Hundreds of supply trucks are entering Gaza daily, and are almost instantly commandeered by Hamas elements and taken away from the civilians, only to have the contents sold on the black market by Hamas.
Today is the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
U.S. officials say they have not been briefed by Israel on the potential start date of military operations in Rafah, Gaza.
Numerous IAF air strikes on Hamas related targets overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Defense and Intelligence Officials now believe that an Iranian Retaliatory Attack to last Monday’s Airstrike on Damascus won’t come until at least the End of Eid al-Fitr on April 12th
RUMINT. Israel prepared to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if Tehran launches attack
RUMINT? Israeli media is reporting that Hezbollah is moving its members to the border area, and this activity is taking place inside Syrian army positions
NOTE - These RUMINT items may well reflect heightened worries of the impending iranian attack, but they are still well within the realm of real actions so are here to note and track.
Israeli army says it struck Syrian military infrastructure used by Hezbollah, the second strike on Syrian military infrastructure in the past day.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
USS Mason destroyed an inbound anti-ship ballistic missile today launched by Iran -backed Houthis from Yemen over the GulfofAden The ASBM was likely targeting the MV Yorktown, a U.S.-flagged, U.S.-owned vessel being escorted by USS Laboon & USS Mason, per CENTCOM
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN rapporteur - Israel must be forced to comply with international law
Spanish Prime Minister - Recognizing a Palestinian state is a “geopolitical interest for Europe”
——— FORECAST ————————-
All eyes continue to be on Iran and what the final design of its retaliatory strike(s) will take. Common sense suggests that it will avoid hitting Israel from launch sites in Iran in order to avoid Israeli counter strikes that it is poorly postured to defend against. This would shift the main attacks onto the “islamic resistance” and more strongly onto Hezbollah. However, Iranian leaders keep saying that they will strike Israel from Iran proper.
Potential revelation of an attack ‘window’ remains around the NOTAM for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024. This same time frame has been reported by various govt intelligence sources to be current leading time frame for an Iranian attack.
Netanyahu has taken some flack over the sudden change in Gaza operations, especially the delay into entering Rafah. As I noted before, the pullout is more oriented towards being ready in the event of a major Hezbollah attack in conjunction with the iranian retribution attack than anything else. IAF has kept very busy hitting Hamas targets throughout Gaza, making life hard for Hamas. The brigade remaining is tasked to prevent movement back to the north from south Gaza.
Iran can’t delay its attack for too long, or become at risk of losing face. We’ll see if they do so by the 12th.
Final note for today. Hamas’ admission that it no longer has all of the hostages accounted for is almost telling Israel to go a head attack. This war, Hamas has attempted to weigh the hostages for concessions and ceasefires by Israel - a tactic that has worked in the past but this time around hasn’t. Chances are that very few of the hostages are still alive, being killed from abuse at the hands of their Hamas (and Gazan) captors as well as from friendly fire since they are being used as human shields.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
We are now in the NOTAM window for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024, at 10:30 AM (local time). Whether or not this represents a time frame for potential Iranian missile attacks on Israel remains to be seen.
Today's the 10th... could get weird.
These hate crime laws are so deliberately vague as to be applies capriciously at the whim of those in power.
supplemental
Strong reports of irans attack being imminent, but current Iranian weather is pretty bad, improving on Thursday. Alerts reportedly going out to embassies to prepare asap
Thanks Godzilla, appreciate your updates.
Attacks where?
In Iran or elsewhere?
Iranian attack towards Israel
A little late today - Dr’s appt this morning.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
BLM activists have clashed with cops outside a Chicago police station after a video was released showing a deadly officer-involved shooting of a black man.
Dexter Reed, 26, was killed during a traffic stop which erupted into a huge shootout also injuring an officer and which cops say Reed started.
Reed opened fire first, striking one officer.
OBSERVATION - The BLM is attempting to expand this into another ‘Floyd’ moment to trigger massive riots like 2020. I don’t think this will grow to that based on the clear video evidence that Reed unloaded his pistol at police first, striking one and the police responding accordingly.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Inflation is up 3.5% over last year — “hotter than expected.”
Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed prices rose 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 percent annual figure notched in February. Prices also rose 0.4 percent between February and March.
The result: The Federal Reserve is very unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months. Officials have been looking for a bit more assurance that inflation is steadily falling before deciding it’s time to trim borrowing costs. But since the start of the year, the data has brought unwanted surprises, with economists and the markets now expecting no cuts until later in 2024.
The Fed “is nowhere near where they’re going to need to be,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “March would not give anyone any confidence.”
OBSERVATION - Wall Street caught the report on the chin and immediately dropped 500 points. They have been drooling over the possibility of reducing rates, now that likelyhood has been stopped cold with this evidence that inflation is heating up.
North/South Korea –
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un says that given the ‘complicated international situation’, now is ‘the time to be more thoroughly prepared for a war than ever before’.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Very rough night for Ukraine -
Overnight, the Russia Air Force launched yet another large-scale missile attack against Ukraine targeting Ukrainian powerfacilities across the country. Several got by ADA and hit targets in the Kharkiv, Lviv, and Zaporizhzhia Region as well as the Capital Region of Kyiv which saw the Total Destruction of Tripilska Power Plant.
Ukrainian air defense wasn’t able to prevent a strike on critical infrastructure such as the Trypilska power station, located south of the capital. One of the largest power generating facilities in the region which is also supplying the Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions. In total, 4 energy facilities were attacked by Russia across Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force says they shot down 57 of 82 missiles and UAVs launched by Russia overnight including:
-16 of 20 Kh-101 / Kh-555
-0 of 6 Kinzhal
-0 of 12 S-300
-39 of 40 Shahed UAVs
-2 of 4 Kh-59
Russia is seeing better success in its missile attacks as Ukraine ADA assets become more and more limited due to lack of missiles and ammo.
Avdiivka -
Russian losses near Chasiv Yar continue to mount. A recent attack in the area of the city was repelled and lead to significant losses. Battalion sized element pretty much wiped out. They rushed into a mine field and got so hammered that one Russian tank shot another in all the confusion.
Outlook —
There will likely be a pause in Russia’s deep attacks as they go through a period of post strike damage assessment. I expect Ukraine to launch a salvo against Russian oil related facilities in return.
Russian artillery has regained some of its superiority in the battle field, now at a 5:1 superiority - due largely to lack of Ukraine ammo. Analysts are forecasting this to rise back to the 10:1 ratio of the first year of the war. Resurgent artillery, combined with unchallenged close air strikes and glide bombing are tipping the scale in a larger way.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israel remains on high alert for impending Iranian attack
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu - Israel is prepared for all scenarios and challenges on other fronts
As the senior U.S. military commander in charge of the Middle East, Gen. Erik Kurilla plans to travel to Israel Thursday to meet with Israeli officials to coordinate a response to a potential attack on Israel by Iran and its proxy groups, Axios reported. Two Israeli officials told the outlet that the commander of U.S. Central Command, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other senior Israel Defense Forces officials plan to meet.
***
The Flagship Airline of Germany, Lufthansa has announced that it will be suspending any further flights to and from the Iranian Capital of Tehran for the next 24 hours due to the current situation developing in the Middle East, this decision will be analyzed on a day-to-day basis.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli Army began an operation on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp began with a series of raids supported by artillery and air strikes.
Three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh were reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike near Gaza City’s Shati Camp on Wednesday. Al Jazeera reports that several grandchildren of Haniyeh were also among those who lost their lives in the strike.The IDF confirmed the killing of Amir, Muhammad, and Hazem Haniyeh on Wednesday evening. The IDF also confirms that the activists are three of the children of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of Hamas.”
***
Massive Israeli airstrikes reported in Gaza; at least 5 killed in Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip; Minister Smotrich says IDF is launching new operation in area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Overnight Iran’s regime is engaged in a concerted campaign of psychological warfare against Israel to create fear and confusion by hyping an imminent response on social media. Telegram channels were earlier posting references to 1:20 AM—when the U.S. took out Soleimani in 2020; false reports about military drills over Tehran; and propaganda videos about missile launches. Addition misinformation included alleged closure of the airspace over Tehran, embassy evacuations etc.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemeni media: American-British aircraft targeted with 4 raids on the Al-Jabanah area in Hodeidah Governorate
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Kremlin: - Everyone must exercise restraint to ensure that stability in the Middle East is not destabilized
——— FORECAST ————————-
There has been a tremendous amount of speculation over the past 24-48 hours about when and how Iran will attack Israel. Best sources continue to indicate it is imminent to within the next several days. The final factor will be - is Iran going to launch missiles from its territory - if so, game on.
The speculation / hype of the past 24 has required more patience sifting thru the flow of raw intelligence. This adds to the fog of war, as such propaganda / psyops is designed to do.
Israel’s sudden raid on the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip, is catching hamas off guard again. Indicating that the raid technique is working, freeing up forces for potential use against Hezbollah.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
We are now in the NOTAM window for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024, at 10:30 AM (local time). Whether or not this represents a time frame for potential Iranian missile attacks on Israel remains to be seen.
Whoops, forgot to add the ping list to yesterday’s post, sorry.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The European Parliament today approved the EU’s new “Asylum and Migration Pact” and the “right to asylum”.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
An organization calling itself “A15 Action group “ is reportedly calling for global protests against Israel on April 15th. Cities targeted include London, Barcelona, Taipei, Montreal, Seattle, Athens, Detroit, Genoa, Miami, Oakland, Melbourne, Catalonia and “dozens of other cities across the world,” according to a video released by the group. “We are organizing and coordinating, and on April 15, we will disrupt global logistical hubs, and we will clog flows of capital worldwide,” continues the ad, adding that “symbolic actions are not enough.”
OBSERVATION - A new group on the radar, reportedly popping up on the inter webs this past March. From its postings, it appears to be a marxist based anti-Israel group. It also seems to be targeting commercial commerce potentially associated with Israel trade.
***
(FO) The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF) published a rule yesterday that will require private individuals who “sell guns for profit” to register as Federal Firearms License (FFL) holders.
(FO) Pro-gun control Democrats use the term “gun show loophole” to mean private sales between private citizens who do not hold FFLs. This new rule is an attempt to curtail private sales by more tightly defining who is “in the business” of selling firearms and allowing the BATF to target Americans who sell even a single firearm “for a profit.” The so-called “gun show loophole” that protected private sales was a compromise in the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act that created the requirement for FFLs to conduct background checks
OBSERVATION - Notes from Forward Observer capture the nature of this new rule. Doesn’t do squat to curb crime but is totally directed at law abiding citizens as part of its incremental attempts to control and eventually disarm America.
***
Weekend incoming and I expect more pro-hamas protests scattered around the nation. Be alert.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Wall street still rumbling following the inflation rate numbers that now seem to threaten any kind of a ‘soft landing’ and Fed rate lowering potentially pushed farther into the year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Receiving mixed news about the status of the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG plans. Yesterday it was indicted that it was enroute to CENTCOM’s area to relieve the Eisenhower. Now USN reports have it moving out of the South China Sea eastward into the Philippine Sea.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Federal agencies were directed on Thursday to “immediately” address a cyber threat by Russian-linked hackers targeting Microsoft corporate email accounts.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued an emergency directive mandating urgent steps for federal agencies to mitigate the risk posed by the hacker group.
Specifically, the directive applies to federal civilian executive branch agencies (FCEB) targeted by Midnight Blizzard, a Russian state-sponsored actor that accessed Microsoft corporate email accounts.
The group is also known as Nobelium, the same Russian hacking team behind the SolarWinds breach.
CISA’s Thursday directive told federal agencies to take “steps to identify the full content of the agency correspondence with compromised Microsoft accounts and perform a cybersecurity impact analysis.”
They were also told to analyze potentially compromised emails, reset compromised credentials, and enhance security measures for privileged Microsoft Azure accounts.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Russia continues to buy weapons from North Korea. This includes about 60 North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. They have been used in 10 separate attacks this year.
The Hwasong-11 is a 3.4 ton missile that carries a warhead with half a ton of explosives. Range is 450 kilometers and accuracy is nominally 100 meters. That means the missile will detonate within 100 meters of the point it was aimed at. This is adequate if the targets are civilian infrastructure.
So far Russia has used about 50 North Korean Hwasong-11s against targets in Ukraine during ten separate attacks. Russia has been unable to build enough of its own missiles to continue attacks against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is reconstituting its army far faster than initial estimates suggested - US Army General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
The top American military commander in Europe told the House Armed Services Committee in a hearing on Wednesday that the Russian army “is actually larger by 15 percent” than it was when it invaded Ukraine back on February 24, 2022.
“Over the past year, Russia increased its front-line troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000,” Cavoli continued, adding that the bolstered numbers stemmed from Russia raising its conscription age from 27 to 30.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 of 17 Shahed drones overnight.
Russia continues to make incremental gains along the eastern front.
Outlook —
Ukraine is still staggering from the very successful Russian attack against power plants.
Inspire of inflicting high losses, Russia is making gains because Ukraine doesn’t have the forces to drive Russians back from territory captured during these attacks. Subsequent Russian attacks see 30% losses, but the remnant links up with elements from previous attack, making it even more difficult to be driven out.
Almost heroic defenses using drones is not making up for the lack are artillery ammunition. Drones take out the armor, but any associated infantry generally can get to a desired location if they move fast enough.
The growth of Russian ground forces in the theatre indicates the success Russia has had among some of the ethnic groups from the east, promising citizenship in exchange for combat service. This has overcome initial resistance to the conscription noted last year.
As far as equipping these forces, Russia is still relying heavily on mothballed tanks and equipment from storage yards. Internal production of new tanks is roughly 200-300/year, not enough to keep up with losses, but with the pull from stores, some analysts suggest that they can sustain the current loss rate thru 2026.
In short, the restrictions on ammo, and in particular artillery and air defense, have the Ukraine army on the ropes.
Russia’s army is still plagued by poor training and equipment and seem incapable of generating a major break out that could be exploited by more mobile troops. They are managing to slog forward, taking terrain and heavy losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel remains on high alert for impending Iranian attack
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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US Defense Secretary Austin complained to his Israeli counterpart Gallant that Israel did not notify the US before its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which the Pentagon sees as increasing risks to American forces in the region (Washington Post)
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Iran has signaled to US that it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily: Iranian sources told Reuters.
Rumint. Iran postponed an attack against Israel at the last minute due to American warnings, but it is still expected.
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Israeli media: The army and Mossad agree on plans to strike Iran if Israel is attacked from Iranian territory
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US embassy in Israel calls its citizens to stay in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beer Sheva areas amid the anticipated Iranian response.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” the U.S. embassy said in a security alert on its website on Thursday. “U.S. government personnel are authorized to transit between these three areas for personal travel.”
***
The US Navy is moving the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower from the coast of Yemen to the northern Red Sea to deter any potential aggression by the Khamenei regime if it decides to attack Israel! Unconfirmed report
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel’s pullout out of Gaza has caused Hamas et al to crawl out of remnants of tunnel systems and into the open. Israel intelligence closely monitoring the actions then passes the info to IDF who then quickly target them with air, artillery or naval strikes. Having a significant impact in taking remnants of the terrorist forces out.
Over the past day, IDF fighter jets and aircraft struck dozens of terror targets in the Gaza Strip, including military sites, launchers, tunnel shafts, and infrastructure.
In one of the strikes, an IAF aircraft also struck a Hamas terrorist cell that posed a threat to IDF troops operating in the area.
The Israel Defense Forces eliminated a prominent Hamas terrorist responsible for funding operations of the terror group’s “military” wing in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, the IDF announced on Thursday. In December alone, Nasser Yakob Jabber Nasser transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars towards terrorist activities in Rafah, according to the military and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet). …the army has shifted into the targeted raids phase of the war against Hamas,
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel and Hezbollah continue to fire at each other. There are unconfirmed reports of Israeli military units moving towards the border areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT - Two US officials have told CBS News that a major Iranian attack on Israel is expected as soon as tonight, with some 100 UAVs and dozens of missiles intended for attacks on Israeli military infrastructure.
WSJ: “Khamenei has yet to decide on the plans. He is concerned a direct attack could backfire with the projectiles being intercepted and Israel responding with a massive retaliation on Iran’s strategic infrastructure. ‘The strike plans are in front of the Supreme Leader and he is still weighing the political risk,’ an adviser said.”
Iran is reportedly crafting the retaliatory strike to deal a blow to Israel, but won’t be big enough to draw the United States into a conflict.
Rumint. Saudi report: The Assad regime refuses to allow Iranians to attack Israel from Syrian territory.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM - forces successfully engaged and destroyed one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) launched over the Red Sea from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas in Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France calls its citizens to avoid from traveling to Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
Russia’s foreign ministry told citizens on Thursday that they should refrain from traveling to the Middle East, especially to Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Massive psyops and counter intelligence operations at play by both Israel and Iran as the world waits to see just what and how Iran does to take revenge for the loss of key IRGC and Qods force officers from the Damascus strike.
Iran is between a rock and a hard place. The strike caused a serious loss of ‘face’ for Iran and in the islamic world, they were shown to be weak. Delaying a counter attack is a further sign of weakness. Israel’s clear statement that Iran will be hit and hit hard may be in play. I don’t give much credibility to the US threats of intervention much credibility after recent actions and statements by biden.
The biggest factor Iran is working is their goals for a nuclear weapon. If their response is too ‘aggressive’ then Israel is sure to make taking out that program a high priority, and I think the mullah’s recognize that inspire of their efforts to harden facilities, Israel has the capabilities to put the program back many years.
So the current RUMINT that Iran is trying to formulate a response that is strong enough to safe face, yet avoid the Israeli (and potently US) counter strike is more valid at this time. It builds upon the observed reluctance and distance Iran has placed towards Hamas - telling them essentially they are on their own.
We are not out of the woods on this issue, not in the least. The ball is in Iran’s court and they may mess this one up - bigly.
Then don't just issue *warnings*.
Round them up and either deport them or drop them off at Gitmo.
The problem with deporting them is that they come back.
This is why the death penalty is so needed.
Murder someone or terror attack, and forfeit your own life.
With the current feckless administration, would even sinking the Eisenhower suffice?
Alert.
Hezbollah has fired a large number of rockets and drones into Israel at this moment.
Developing.
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