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A little late today - Dr’s appt this morning.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

BLM activists have clashed with cops outside a Chicago police station after a video was released showing a deadly officer-involved shooting of a black man.
Dexter Reed, 26, was killed during a traffic stop which erupted into a huge shootout also injuring an officer and which cops say Reed started.
Reed opened fire first, striking one officer.

OBSERVATION - The BLM is attempting to expand this into another ‘Floyd’ moment to trigger massive riots like 2020. I don’t think this will grow to that based on the clear video evidence that Reed unloaded his pistol at police first, striking one and the police responding accordingly.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024

The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.

The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”

Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.

The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.

However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.

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Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.

Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.

NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.

Economy-

Inflation is up 3.5% over last year — “hotter than expected.”

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed prices rose 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 percent annual figure notched in February. Prices also rose 0.4 percent between February and March.

The result: The Federal Reserve is very unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months. Officials have been looking for a bit more assurance that inflation is steadily falling before deciding it’s time to trim borrowing costs. But since the start of the year, the data has brought unwanted surprises, with economists and the markets now expecting no cuts until later in 2024.
The Fed “is nowhere near where they’re going to need to be,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “March would not give anyone any confidence.”

OBSERVATION - Wall Street caught the report on the chin and immediately dropped 500 points. They have been drooling over the possibility of reducing rates, now that likelyhood has been stopped cold with this evidence that inflation is heating up.

North/South Korea –

North Korea leader Kim Jong Un says that given the ‘complicated international situation’, now is ‘the time to be more thoroughly prepared for a war than ever before’.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Very rough night for Ukraine -

Overnight, the Russia Air Force launched yet another large-scale missile attack against Ukraine targeting Ukrainian powerfacilities across the country. Several got by ADA and hit targets in the Kharkiv, Lviv, and Zaporizhzhia Region as well as the Capital Region of Kyiv which saw the Total Destruction of Tripilska Power Plant.

Ukrainian air defense wasn’t able to prevent a strike on critical infrastructure such as the Trypilska power station, located south of the capital. One of the largest power generating facilities in the region which is also supplying the Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions. In total, 4 energy facilities were attacked by Russia across Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force says they shot down 57 of 82 missiles and UAVs launched by Russia overnight including:
-16 of 20 Kh-101 / Kh-555
-0 of 6 Kinzhal
-0 of 12 S-300
-39 of 40 Shahed UAVs
-2 of 4 Kh-59

Russia is seeing better success in its missile attacks as Ukraine ADA assets become more and more limited due to lack of missiles and ammo.

Avdiivka -

Russian losses near Chasiv Yar continue to mount. A recent attack in the area of the city was repelled and lead to significant losses. Battalion sized element pretty much wiped out. They rushed into a mine field and got so hammered that one Russian tank shot another in all the confusion.

Outlook —

There will likely be a pause in Russia’s deep attacks as they go through a period of post strike damage assessment. I expect Ukraine to launch a salvo against Russian oil related facilities in return.

Russian artillery has regained some of its superiority in the battle field, now at a 5:1 superiority - due largely to lack of Ukraine ammo. Analysts are forecasting this to rise back to the 10:1 ratio of the first year of the war. Resurgent artillery, combined with unchallenged close air strikes and glide bombing are tipping the scale in a larger way.

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8

Key overnight developments -

- Israel remains on high alert for impending Iranian attack

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Netanyahu - Israel is prepared for all scenarios and challenges on other fronts

As the senior U.S. military commander in charge of the Middle East, Gen. Erik Kurilla plans to travel to Israel Thursday to meet with Israeli officials to coordinate a response to a potential attack on Israel by Iran and its proxy groups, Axios reported. Two Israeli officials told the outlet that the commander of U.S. Central Command, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other senior Israel Defense Forces officials plan to meet.

***
The Flagship Airline of Germany, Lufthansa has announced that it will be suspending any further flights to and from the Iranian Capital of Tehran for the next 24 hours due to the current situation developing in the Middle East, this decision will be analyzed on a day-to-day basis.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israeli Army began an operation on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp began with a series of raids supported by artillery and air strikes.

Three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh were reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike near Gaza City’s Shati Camp on Wednesday. Al Jazeera reports that several grandchildren of Haniyeh were also among those who lost their lives in the strike.The IDF confirmed the killing of Amir, Muhammad, and Hazem Haniyeh on Wednesday evening. The IDF also confirms that the activists are three of the children of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of Hamas.”

***
Massive Israeli airstrikes reported in Gaza; at least 5 killed in Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip; Minister Smotrich says IDF is launching new operation in area.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight Iran’s regime is engaged in a concerted campaign of psychological warfare against Israel to create fear and confusion by hyping an imminent response on social media. Telegram channels were earlier posting references to 1:20 AM—when the U.S. took out Soleimani in 2020; false reports about military drills over Tehran; and propaganda videos about missile launches. Addition misinformation included alleged closure of the airspace over Tehran, embassy evacuations etc.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Yemeni media: American-British aircraft targeted with 4 raids on the Al-Jabanah area in Hodeidah Governorate

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Kremlin: - Everyone must exercise restraint to ensure that stability in the Middle East is not destabilized

——— FORECAST ————————-

There has been a tremendous amount of speculation over the past 24-48 hours about when and how Iran will attack Israel. Best sources continue to indicate it is imminent to within the next several days. The final factor will be - is Iran going to launch missiles from its territory - if so, game on.

The speculation / hype of the past 24 has required more patience sifting thru the flow of raw intelligence. This adds to the fog of war, as such propaganda / psyops is designed to do.
Israel’s sudden raid on the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip, is catching hamas off guard again. Indicating that the raid technique is working, freeing up forces for potential use against Hezbollah.

Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

We are now in the NOTAM window for declared Iranian missile launches - April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024, at 10:30 AM (local time). Whether or not this represents a time frame for potential Iranian missile attacks on Israel remains to be seen.