Whoops, forgot to add the ping list to yesterday’s post, sorry.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The European Parliament today approved the EU’s new “Asylum and Migration Pact” and the “right to asylum”.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
An organization calling itself “A15 Action group “ is reportedly calling for global protests against Israel on April 15th. Cities targeted include London, Barcelona, Taipei, Montreal, Seattle, Athens, Detroit, Genoa, Miami, Oakland, Melbourne, Catalonia and “dozens of other cities across the world,” according to a video released by the group. “We are organizing and coordinating, and on April 15, we will disrupt global logistical hubs, and we will clog flows of capital worldwide,” continues the ad, adding that “symbolic actions are not enough.”
OBSERVATION - A new group on the radar, reportedly popping up on the inter webs this past March. From its postings, it appears to be a marxist based anti-Israel group. It also seems to be targeting commercial commerce potentially associated with Israel trade.
***
(FO) The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF) published a rule yesterday that will require private individuals who “sell guns for profit” to register as Federal Firearms License (FFL) holders.
(FO) Pro-gun control Democrats use the term “gun show loophole” to mean private sales between private citizens who do not hold FFLs. This new rule is an attempt to curtail private sales by more tightly defining who is “in the business” of selling firearms and allowing the BATF to target Americans who sell even a single firearm “for a profit.” The so-called “gun show loophole” that protected private sales was a compromise in the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act that created the requirement for FFLs to conduct background checks
OBSERVATION - Notes from Forward Observer capture the nature of this new rule. Doesn’t do squat to curb crime but is totally directed at law abiding citizens as part of its incremental attempts to control and eventually disarm America.
***
Weekend incoming and I expect more pro-hamas protests scattered around the nation. Be alert.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
The FBI and Homeland Security are increasingly worried about threats from ISIS and “lone wolves” in the U.S.
The intel bulletin specifically warns people to be cautious at “mass gatherings such as sports stadiums, concert venues, or houses of worship in the United States.”
Of particular note - U.S. intelligence officials are warning of violence targeting mass gatherings days before millions gather to watch the eclipse.
The warning is reportedly similar to the one U.S. officials gave in Russia on March 7, warning U.S. citizens to stay away from large gatherings for 48 hours due to “imminent plans” from extremists.
However, there are no official National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) alerts posted on this threat.
***
Iran has continued to say that US was involved in the Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran in the past has launched attacks against US interests globally in response to Israeli strikes. In that Zahedi is the replacement for Suleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike, this action likely crossed many red lines for Iran.
Retaliation may come in many forms. Physical attacks on US interests globally, concentrated in Europe and Syria/Iraq. Cyber attacks increased probability.
In the US, Iranian terror groups may be activated and conduct terror ops here. Pro-hamas protest supporters may try to utilize this to increase hatred for Jewish interests in the US.
NOTE - there have been no formal terrorism threat alerts from any of the alphabet agencies in Washington. However, events are breaking fast and one may be soon to come.
Economy-
Wall street still rumbling following the inflation rate numbers that now seem to threaten any kind of a ‘soft landing’ and Fed rate lowering potentially pushed farther into the year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Receiving mixed news about the status of the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG plans. Yesterday it was indicted that it was enroute to CENTCOM’s area to relieve the Eisenhower. Now USN reports have it moving out of the South China Sea eastward into the Philippine Sea.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Federal agencies were directed on Thursday to “immediately” address a cyber threat by Russian-linked hackers targeting Microsoft corporate email accounts.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued an emergency directive mandating urgent steps for federal agencies to mitigate the risk posed by the hacker group.
Specifically, the directive applies to federal civilian executive branch agencies (FCEB) targeted by Midnight Blizzard, a Russian state-sponsored actor that accessed Microsoft corporate email accounts.
The group is also known as Nobelium, the same Russian hacking team behind the SolarWinds breach.
CISA’s Thursday directive told federal agencies to take “steps to identify the full content of the agency correspondence with compromised Microsoft accounts and perform a cybersecurity impact analysis.”
They were also told to analyze potentially compromised emails, reset compromised credentials, and enhance security measures for privileged Microsoft Azure accounts.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Russia continues to buy weapons from North Korea. This includes about 60 North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. They have been used in 10 separate attacks this year.
The Hwasong-11 is a 3.4 ton missile that carries a warhead with half a ton of explosives. Range is 450 kilometers and accuracy is nominally 100 meters. That means the missile will detonate within 100 meters of the point it was aimed at. This is adequate if the targets are civilian infrastructure.
So far Russia has used about 50 North Korean Hwasong-11s against targets in Ukraine during ten separate attacks. Russia has been unable to build enough of its own missiles to continue attacks against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is reconstituting its army far faster than initial estimates suggested - US Army General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
The top American military commander in Europe told the House Armed Services Committee in a hearing on Wednesday that the Russian army “is actually larger by 15 percent” than it was when it invaded Ukraine back on February 24, 2022.
“Over the past year, Russia increased its front-line troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000,” Cavoli continued, adding that the bolstered numbers stemmed from Russia raising its conscription age from 27 to 30.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 16 of 17 Shahed drones overnight.
Russia continues to make incremental gains along the eastern front.
Outlook —
Ukraine is still staggering from the very successful Russian attack against power plants.
Inspire of inflicting high losses, Russia is making gains because Ukraine doesn’t have the forces to drive Russians back from territory captured during these attacks. Subsequent Russian attacks see 30% losses, but the remnant links up with elements from previous attack, making it even more difficult to be driven out.
Almost heroic defenses using drones is not making up for the lack are artillery ammunition. Drones take out the armor, but any associated infantry generally can get to a desired location if they move fast enough.
The growth of Russian ground forces in the theatre indicates the success Russia has had among some of the ethnic groups from the east, promising citizenship in exchange for combat service. This has overcome initial resistance to the conscription noted last year.
As far as equipping these forces, Russia is still relying heavily on mothballed tanks and equipment from storage yards. Internal production of new tanks is roughly 200-300/year, not enough to keep up with losses, but with the pull from stores, some analysts suggest that they can sustain the current loss rate thru 2026.
In short, the restrictions on ammo, and in particular artillery and air defense, have the Ukraine army on the ropes.
Russia’s army is still plagued by poor training and equipment and seem incapable of generating a major break out that could be exploited by more mobile troops. They are managing to slog forward, taking terrain and heavy losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel remains on high alert for impending Iranian attack
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
US Defense Secretary Austin complained to his Israeli counterpart Gallant that Israel did not notify the US before its attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which the Pentagon sees as increasing risks to American forces in the region (Washington Post)
***
Iran has signaled to US that it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily: Iranian sources told Reuters.
Rumint. Iran postponed an attack against Israel at the last minute due to American warnings, but it is still expected.
***
Israeli media: The army and Mossad agree on plans to strike Iran if Israel is attacked from Iranian territory
***
US embassy in Israel calls its citizens to stay in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beer Sheva areas amid the anticipated Iranian response.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” the U.S. embassy said in a security alert on its website on Thursday. “U.S. government personnel are authorized to transit between these three areas for personal travel.”
***
The US Navy is moving the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower from the coast of Yemen to the northern Red Sea to deter any potential aggression by the Khamenei regime if it decides to attack Israel! Unconfirmed report
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel’s pullout out of Gaza has caused Hamas et al to crawl out of remnants of tunnel systems and into the open. Israel intelligence closely monitoring the actions then passes the info to IDF who then quickly target them with air, artillery or naval strikes. Having a significant impact in taking remnants of the terrorist forces out.
Over the past day, IDF fighter jets and aircraft struck dozens of terror targets in the Gaza Strip, including military sites, launchers, tunnel shafts, and infrastructure.
In one of the strikes, an IAF aircraft also struck a Hamas terrorist cell that posed a threat to IDF troops operating in the area.
The Israel Defense Forces eliminated a prominent Hamas terrorist responsible for funding operations of the terror group’s “military” wing in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, the IDF announced on Thursday. In December alone, Nasser Yakob Jabber Nasser transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars towards terrorist activities in Rafah, according to the military and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet). …the army has shifted into the targeted raids phase of the war against Hamas,
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel and Hezbollah continue to fire at each other. There are unconfirmed reports of Israeli military units moving towards the border areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT - Two US officials have told CBS News that a major Iranian attack on Israel is expected as soon as tonight, with some 100 UAVs and dozens of missiles intended for attacks on Israeli military infrastructure.
WSJ: “Khamenei has yet to decide on the plans. He is concerned a direct attack could backfire with the projectiles being intercepted and Israel responding with a massive retaliation on Iran’s strategic infrastructure. ‘The strike plans are in front of the Supreme Leader and he is still weighing the political risk,’ an adviser said.”
Iran is reportedly crafting the retaliatory strike to deal a blow to Israel, but won’t be big enough to draw the United States into a conflict.
Rumint. Saudi report: The Assad regime refuses to allow Iranians to attack Israel from Syrian territory.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM - forces successfully engaged and destroyed one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) launched over the Red Sea from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas in Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France calls its citizens to avoid from traveling to Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
Russia’s foreign ministry told citizens on Thursday that they should refrain from traveling to the Middle East, especially to Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Massive psyops and counter intelligence operations at play by both Israel and Iran as the world waits to see just what and how Iran does to take revenge for the loss of key IRGC and Qods force officers from the Damascus strike.
Iran is between a rock and a hard place. The strike caused a serious loss of ‘face’ for Iran and in the islamic world, they were shown to be weak. Delaying a counter attack is a further sign of weakness. Israel’s clear statement that Iran will be hit and hit hard may be in play. I don’t give much credibility to the US threats of intervention much credibility after recent actions and statements by biden.
The biggest factor Iran is working is their goals for a nuclear weapon. If their response is too ‘aggressive’ then Israel is sure to make taking out that program a high priority, and I think the mullah’s recognize that inspire of their efforts to harden facilities, Israel has the capabilities to put the program back many years.
So the current RUMINT that Iran is trying to formulate a response that is strong enough to safe face, yet avoid the Israeli (and potently US) counter strike is more valid at this time. It builds upon the observed reluctance and distance Iran has placed towards Hamas - telling them essentially they are on their own.
We are not out of the woods on this issue, not in the least. The ball is in Iran’s court and they may mess this one up - bigly.
Then don't just issue *warnings*.
Round them up and either deport them or drop them off at Gitmo.
The problem with deporting them is that they come back.
This is why the death penalty is so needed.
Murder someone or terror attack, and forfeit your own life.
With the current feckless administration, would even sinking the Eisenhower suffice?
Alert.
Hezbollah has fired a large number of rockets and drones into Israel at this moment.
Developing.