Note that this starts with ALL GOVERNMENTS, usually it's one or two at a time, but not this time...
Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
That has been a component of the great migration of the past few years. Migrants to the snow covered Redoubt has also jacked home prices to infinity and beyond.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In the face of NYCs mayor adams claiming that violent crime is down, NY Gov has deployed NG troops into the NY subway system - setting up TSA equivalents of checkpoints.
***
The federal government has been illegally surveilling and building profiles for Americans in secret portal called DSAC for those who oppose firearm restrictions, lockdowns & vaccine mandates, and or support border security and are labeling them as domestic extremists.
OBSERVATION - Covert surveillance of the citizens of a nation is a huge red flag when it comes to the govt on the brink of going tyrannical. This is apparently just another method the regime has been using to compile data for its list of enemies. There is no doubt that this list will be used to target civilians when the regime decides to turn the corner and go full blown tyrannical. There is no other reason for the compilation of such data.
***
As will be noted below under politics, hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters shut down Pennsylvania Ave right outside the US Capitol, sitting down around a giant Palestinian flag. This was an effort to block the motorcade route as biden heads to the US Capitol for the State of the Union address in Washington, D.C. The protesters are demanding a permanent ceasefire.
***
Many commentators have noted that biden’s SOTU was a call to move towards a civil war, by declaring essential legislative and regulatory war on half the country. It is a bleat that he has repeated many times over the past couple years. How will will it carry in the anti-2A base? They will expect the military of the police to do their fighting for them I imagine.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
U.S. Embassy in Russia alert: The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
NOTE - Exact nature of the threat is not known, but some speculation it may be associated with ISIS or similar islamic terrorist group. Based in part on a report that FSB exposed an ISIS cell, plotting attack on the synagogue in Moscow, several suspected killed in Kaluga region
Economy-
The tax plan announced by the Biden White House would charge U.S. corporations a higher tax rate than the rate corporations are charged in Communist China.
On Thursday, Biden’s tax plan was posted on the White House website, in the form of a “Fact Sheet,” which details the president’s goal of raising the corporate tax rate to 28%:
“Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and the corporate minimum tax to 21%. President Biden believes large corporations should pay their fair share, and is committed to reversing the massive tax giveaway to big corporations that Republicans enacted in 2017. President Biden would raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. He would also ensure that billion-dollar corporations pay at least 21% of their income in taxes, building on the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) corporate minimum tax.”
In response, Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) published an analysis explaining that, under Biden’s tax scheme, corporations would pay a higher rate (28%) than they’re charged in Communist China (21%).
What’s more, “Industry sectors of strategic use to the Chinese government pay an even lower rate of 15% or 10%” – and, once state corporate taxes are added in, the U.S. corporate tax rate would be around 32%, according to the analysis.
America’s workers would be hard hit by the tax hike, since they’d end up absorbing about a quarter of the additional burden, in the form of lower wage growth, ATR notes.
OBSERVATION - This tax proposal will go over like a lead balloon. If the republicans can fix the discussion on how it will raise the cost of living for the middle and lower class - biden’s oft repeated no one making under $400K will hit the rocks harder.
***
biden continues to claim it created 15 million jobs, a number. Recovering jobs lost to pandemic shutdowns is not job creation. Almost 22 million jobs were lost in April and May of 2020. Even CNN cried foul
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended that adults aged 65 and above get an additional dose of the updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine following a heated debate by an advisory panel on the issue.
***
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Tuesday introduced a bill that would allow Americans to sue the manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines for vaccine-related adverse events, including deaths by removing the vaccine makers’ liability shield.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The democrats have a serious problem with their base with last night’s interesting plot twist where leftist pro-hamas protestors blocked the main path from the WH to the capitol building - delaying the speech for nearly an hour was juicy. Just like Portland, the left is eating its progressive leadership to push matters even farther to the left.
Biden / Harris Watch –
I could only stomach some of the short SOTU clips this morning, having avoided the nightmarish meltdown in its entirety.
By all accounts, biden’s SOTU was a raging dumpster fire. From being over drugged to attacking Americans for not appreciating is wonderful ‘economy’ to unintelligent ramblings. I don’t have the time to address all but here are a few other comments and thoughts i’ve gleaned.-
Brandon threatened the SCOTUS. “With all due respect, Justices, Women are not without electrical power! Excuse me, electoral or political power. You’re about to realize just how much you’re...”
Tucker Carlson calls President Biden’s SOTU speech the most un-American speech in U.S. history.
“That was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech ever given by an American president. In fact, it wasn’t a speech, it was a rant, entirely lacking in decency or generosity to his fellow Americans.”
This is not a State of the Union speech. This is a war time address against half the country. This is a signal to crush political dissent.— Charlie Kirk
The optics appear to be that Pro-Hamas protestors get to block traffic with impunity and Gold Star parents are led away in handcuffs.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Several U.S. government websites went down for a short period as the SOTU started. The outages were minimal.
Other problems were noted on some of the contra-internet social sites.
Illegal Immigration –
This has been floating out there for a few days, but it has taken me that long to get around to looking at it more deeply.
Chinese gangs known as “Snakeheads” are working with Mexican cartels to smuggle illegals into the United States.
According to the Daily Mail, Chinese people are flying from China to Mexico and other central American cities and then meeting up with smugglers to lead them into the United States.
Former intel officer Todd Bensman says the Chinese migrants are very well coached by the Snakeheads and know exactly what to say to US officials.
“They’re so well coached and, we would get the same story from all of them, and not one variation,” Bensman said.
The Chinese have changed their tactics in Mexico. Previously, they specialized in drugs and money laundering. Now they specialize in human trafficking thanks to Biden.
“The Chinese just can’t go over there and cut the Mexican cartels out. That just doesn’t happen. They’ve got to be paying the Mexican cartel some kind of a percentage, quota or tax,” said cartel expert Robert Almonte.
OBSERVATION - For now they are cooperating with cartels. How soon before they start pushing them aside?
***
Carlos Obed Yepez-Bedoya, age 40, was apprehended at the Texas-Mexico border by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month. He is on the terror watchlist.
On February 21, just days before former President Trump visited Eagle Pass and President Biden went to Brownsville, Yepez-Bedoya was caught by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) crossing near Eagle Pass. He is a Colombian national. He was a “positive match” with the terror watchlist, according to an internal agency memo.
The memo said that he was flagged as a “group member,” which indicates he is associated with a terror organization. No specifics were given about which group he is suspected to have affiliation with. DPS arrested him and CBP picked him up.
The suspected terrorist was arrested thanks to Operation Lone Star. Texas uses the Texas National Guard and law enforcement to assist CBP in securing the border with Mexico.
OBSERVATION - How many other terrorists have gotten in that have not been stopped?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
U.S. Embassy in Russia alert: The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned France that Russia has “no more red lines” for the country.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned France that Russia has “no more red lines” for the country.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 37 Shahed drones overnight. Most targeted the Odesa region.
Russian Ministry of Defense says 4 drones were shot down over Kursk and Belgorod regions. 5 flights were delayed at Volgograd airport after Russian Ministry defense claimed 15 drones were shot down over the region
Ground action is still generally stable, with no significant Russian attacks or territory changes.
Outlook —
The Russian tactical ‘pause’ continues. How soon they will lumber back into more intensive offensive operations is not certain. With wet weather in bound, any delay will make forward movement much more difficult.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Ramadan truce unlikely as Hamas walks away from the bargaining table.
- biden threatens Israel with weapons denial if it proceeds to enter Rafah
- US to build a pier in Gaza to facilitate relief supply delivery.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
SOTU -
Biden: The only real solution is a two- state solution. I say this as a lifelong supporter of Israel. There is no other path that guarantees Israel’s security and democracy. There is no other path that guarantees peace between Israel & its Arab neighbors – including Saudi Arabia
Biden: We’ve been working non-stop to establish an immediate ceasefire that would last for at least 6 weeks. It would get the hostages home – ease the intolerable humanitarian crisis and build toward something more enduring
Biden: Israel has the right to eliminate Hamas
US to build a pier at a Gazan port to facilitate food and emergency supply delivery to
Gaza.
***
The Washington Post published a report Wednesday that the Biden Administration may limit arms transfers to Israel if it attacks the remaining four Hamas battalions in Rafah
***
“Iran has managed to join the humanitarian aid deliveries in Gaza. The Iranian Red Crescent has established shelters in southern and northern Gaza for Gazans, where food is distributed,” Israel’s Channel 11 reported, citing “documents coming out of Gaza in recent days.”
***
Israel will push on with its offensive against Hamas despite growing international pressure, including into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
***
IAF struck targets throughout Gaza overnight. These targets are likely pockets of Hamas et al that have been ID’d and cornered by IDF elements as part of their clearance operations.
Silence on matters of evacuating non-combatants out or Rafah, nor timeline for the commencement of operations. The action in Rafah has the potential of encountering most of the remaining hostages (dead and alive), so the tactical operations have to be finely tuned to minimize any casualties.
At this stage, it is uncertain how real biden’s threat to prohibit US weapon use in Rafah is. It does appear that Israel is ready to go it alone because if the 4 battalions of Hamas are permitted to survive - hamas will be able to reconstitute itself very quickly. It is essential to enter Rafah to finish the fight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Channel 13 reports that the IDF is preparing for a ground invasion against Hezbollah.
“The IDF’s Chief of Staff assigned Brigadier General Chiko Tamir, who formulated the plan to enter Gaza, the responsibility of preparing several possible plans for ground action in Lebanon on various scales - while drawing lessons from the fighting in the Gaza Strip.”
OBSERVATION- Israel has been preparing for war for years. It is understandable that reviews to tactics and objective are conducted using the most up to date intelligence and tactics observed. How soon? I still postulate Israel won’t initiate it until the fight over Rafah is finished.- several months.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Shin bet operatives killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist who promoted terror acts against the security forces in Silat al-Harithiya, located in the West Bank, the IDF stated on Friday.
The PIJ terrorist killed was Muhammad Adel Muhammad Shelvi. Shelvi was involved in promoting significant terrorist activity for the terror organization, including shooting attacks and explosive usage.
Additionally, nine wanted people from Judea and Samaria were arrested by the IDF throughout Thursday night. Those arrested were transferred for further investigation.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
In eastern Syria/Iraq, there have been no attacks in 32 days.
European Union: We are determined to defend our ships against attacks that undermine freedom of navigation
***
US defense officials have blamed “insufficient intelligence” for Washington’s abortive airstrike campaign against Yemen, which started in mid-January and has so far failed to deter Yemen’s Houthi armed forces from attacking US, UK, and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea in support of Palestine.
During a congressional hearing on US operations in the Red Sea last week, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for West Asia, Daniel B. Shapiro, revealed Washington “did not know” the full capacity of the Yemeni arsenal used for its operations in the Red Sea, adding that the White House was “working to gather that intelligence.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion
Israel continues to make preparations to enter Rafah, likely within the next couple weeks.
Tensions in the north will continue to escalate as Israel progressively takes out Hezbollah leadership and critical sites in S Lebanon in battlefield preparation strikes. Though war talk is on the rise, I don’t see anything sooner than the next few months - unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive attack.
Houthi continue to target shipping with impudence as US / Coalition forces struggle to locate and hit key facilities to cripple the anti-ship campaign. Calls of bad intel are common but there is a plethora of intel the Saudi’s have and should have been tapped. We have a lot of assets that can be used. The bottom line is the military’s hands are tied from really hitting the Houthi like they did the Iranian backed militias in Syria/Iraq.
Said it once, I’ll say it again - they only respect power not posturing.
hochul is leading the charge against the Kulaks.
OBSERVATION - Covert surveillance of the citizens of a nation is a huge red flag when it comes to the govt on the brink of going tyrannical. This is apparently just another method the regime has been using to compile data for its list of enemies. There is no doubt that this list will be used to target civilians when the regime decides to turn the corner and go full blown tyrannical. There is no other reason for the compilation of such data.
On 5th Columns:
Imagine 100,000 muslim jihadis here on H-1B, L-1, refugee and expired student visas working in power plants, fertilizer factories, refineries, chemical manufacturers, hospitals, utilities, dams, pharmaceutical formulators, web hub server farms, municipal water supply facilities, sewage treatment plants, meat packing and food processing plants, driving HazMat trucks...Feel free to update with Venezuelan felons, MS-13 gangs, Cartels, and any third world or communist country trained soldiers...Remember when the Vietcong took over Huế? They were able to round up every government official, march them all off into the jungle and kill every last one of them in one single night.
They knew exactly where they lived, who they visited, where they shopped and where they ate dinner, and when.
How you ask?
The cabbies had been providing the Vietcong daily reports on their every move for years in advance.
Soooo, where do most of the cabbies in your berg come from? In Washington DC, it's Somalia...
Just because we've forgotten the lessons of Huế and the lessons of the Sepoy Rebellion's "The Perfect Day" doesn't mean our enemies have.
Wiki seems mute on The Perfect Day. That information used to be readily available there. Now it's barely mentioned.
Source here
Thanks for that blast from the past.
The Hue massacre shows what determined communists can do hen properly motivated. Its a very disturbing read and should be mandatory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Hu%E1%BA%BF
Note that this starts with ALL GOVERNMENTS, usually it's one or two at a time, but not this time...
Sometimes it feels scary listening to Biden's hatred of half the American people... his hatred drips from his voice.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Lawmakers in Canada are considering legislation that, if passed, could criminalize quoting Scripture in defense of biblical marriage, sexuality, and other Christian views. Bill C-367 would repeal “religious exemption” in Section 319 of the Criminal Code, which critics say could open up Christians and other religious groups to “hate speech” charges over any comments or criticisms of the LGBT movement.
OBSERVATION - WEF/globlist goals are to silence fundamental Christian beliefs and subordinate under the developing globalist new religion. This is seen in many ways across the globe. Canada is leading the way with it new laws moving to essentially outlaw Christianity in total. Think our 1st Amendment will protect use here - guess again - as efforts are well underway to do similar here.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 10th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
An Aug 22, 2022 USAF memo from Gen C.Q Brown, now biden’s chair of the joint chiefs, directed the service to “develop a diversity and inclusion outreach plan aimed at achieving ‘set numerical quotas for the racial composition of officer applicant pools’. “
OBSERVTION - This is another step in the degrading of the military - moving from merit based promotions and assignments towards a DEI style system that threatens the high standards of leadership necessary for the modern military. Brown now is likely the process to push thru similar onto the other branches of the military.
***
The F-35A Lightning II, has been operationally certified to be equipped with B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs for the first time.
“The F-35A is the first 5th generation nuclear capable aircraft ever, and the first new platform (fighter or bomber) to achieve this status since the early 1990s. This F-35 Nuclear Certification effort culminates 10+ years of intense effort across the nuclear enterprise, which consists of 16 different government and industry stakeholders,” F-35 Joint Program Office spokesman Russ Goemaere told military blog Breaking Defense.
Goemaere said, “The F-35A achieved Nuclear Certification ahead of schedule, providing US and NATO with a critical capability that supports US extended deterrence commitments earlier than anticipated. ”
POLITICAL FRONT –
Ronna McDaniel officially resigned as RNC Chair, Michael Whatley and Lara Trump voted in as new Co-Chairs.
OBSERVATION - Lara Trump is there as a bone to MAGA elements because Whatley is another Bush era establishment republican. One will need to wait and see how quickly Trump will be maneuvered to the sidelines.
***
Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) delivered the Republican response to the State of the Union address Thursday night. She has received rather mixed reviews. Rumored reports that a much sharper response was desired and that Ramaswamy was the one wanted, but McConnell intervened and overruled, playing Britt in front of the camera.
***
The Senate on Friday approved a $460 billion package of spending bills in time to meet a midnight deadline for avoiding a shutdown of many key federal agencies, a vote that gets lawmakers about halfway home in wrapping up their appropriations work for the 2024 budget. The bill is ladened with billions in pork project earmarks by both parties.
RELATED -
House Republican lawmakers who advocate for reducing federal spending to bring down the budget deficit are defending the use of earmarks as Congress passes a spending package that include $13 billion of them.
“When Democrats are in control, if we don’t have the opportunity for our elected representatives to weigh in on these types of issues, then we’re sending our tax dollars to Washington, D.C. and bureaucrats are deciding where it goes,” said Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., during an interview with Just the News.
Rep. Burgess Owens, R-Utah, said he’s thankful for the earmarks process, which is now formally titled, “Community Project Funding,” noting that his “district was not being serviced at all” when earmarks were banned prior to 2021.
There were about 6,000 earmarks taking up 605 pages in the minibus spending package that passed. The package contains 6 appropriations bills.
OBSERVATION - Corruption runs across the board. Even the ‘conservatives’ are diving into the feed trough.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the two of them were headed for a “come to Jesus” meeting over the issue of getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to a video clip posted on Friday.
“I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting,” Biden said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “I’m on a hot mic here. Good. That’s good.”
OBSERVATION - He later denied the comment then went on to blame the ‘media’ for it. From a biblical standpoint, biden is playing with fire.
Illegal Immigration –
Senate Democrats just voted unanimously to defeat an amendment that would have stopped counting illegals for congressional seat apportionment and electoral college (presidential) votes.
OBSERVATION - It has been recognized that one of the goals of the democrat induced illegal tsunami was to eventually force an issue and get a blanket amnesty issued, an act that would likely generate nearly 10 million new democrat voters. A secondary effect was to continue the counting of illegals in the census for the purpose of congressional seat apportionment - tipping the scales into blue regions getting more seats. The resurgence of this effort comes at a time where in 2022, a major shift in legislative seats were made from blue regions to red - as a result of the Great Migration. Now , even if they can’t legally vote, the left is willing to use them to shift the balance of power anyway.
This will also be a contributor to CW2 anger in the coming years.
***
Two U.S. National Guard members and a Border Patrol agent were killed and a fourth person was injured when a helicopter went down near Rio Grande City, Texas, on Friday, officials said.
The UH-72 Lakota helicopter crashed around 2:50 p.m. local time while it was “conducting aviation operations” in the area, according to a statement from the Defense Department’s Joint Task Force North.
The helicopter had been assigned to a support mission at the Southwest border of the U.S., the statement said.
OBSERVATION - Some outer fringe websites reporting that it was taken down by a cartel manpads. Seriously doubt it. On the worrysome side, there have been a number of military helicopter accidents lately - and this coincides to an unusual number of civilian air incidents too.
***
The city of Denver is emailing property owners, asking them to house “newcomers” aka illegals over actual citizens. Denver is being overrun by illegals after Democrats made it a sanctuary city.
OBSERVATION - Denver is among a growing trend of leftist cities trying to get homeowners to house parts of the illegal population - unscreened and unsanitized. Many note that the next likely step is to mandate that homeowners house illegals - like it or not. As this progresses, I’m watching to see what levels of crime and the like start happening, and I’ll be the homeowners will be essentially powerless to remove undesirable tenants.
China –
Border conflict between nuclear powers China and India heats up. India announced a plan to add 10,000 troops to guard the shared border.
OBSERVATION - This still simmers from the ‘rock and stick’ battle of several years ago. China sees the territory it is claiming as essential to maintain a land bridge of sorts to Mongolia and other territories in the Himalayan mountains. India and China have grown more abrasive to each other as economic competition has increased as well.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 12 of 15 Shahed drones overnight. Kryvyi Rih, area was the recipient of most of these drones.
Russian Ministry of Defense says 3 drones were shot down over Volgograd region, 41 over Rostov region, 2 over Kursk region and 1 in Belgorod region.
Advances in Avdiivka area as well as continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact have been in progress.
Avdiivka -
Russia is attempting to push northwest of Avdiivka along a major highway towards Ocheretyne. These are reportedly confirmed advances
Outlook —
Russia has resumed operations along the Avdiivka axis as Ukraine struggles to reestablish a defensive line. Indicators are that Russia managed to push faster and farther than Ukraine had anticipated after the fall of the city, negating defensive lines to the city’s west and northwest. They are now struggling to establish new lines. This axis is also a recipient of Russia air support as evidenced by the number of jets shot down in the region earlier in the month. Russia for once has recognized the advantage they’ve gained and are attempting to exploit it.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Air drops of food continue, even though there have been some killed by standing under the pallets as they come down.
-Houthi launched large anti-ship drone attacks with up to 37 drones.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Biden at the SOTU- “I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting,”
***
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres once again caused an uproar on Friday, after he mentioned the sexual crimes committed by Hamas in its October 7 attack in Israel in the same breath as “reports of sexual violence against Palestinian detainees”.
The UN chief made the remarks in a speech he gave during an event on the occasion of International Women’s Day.
The crimes committed by Hamas were confirmed in a report released by UN Special Rapporteur Pramila Patten on Monday.
UN experts have accused IDF soldiers of raping Palestinian Arab women and girls in detention but have not provided evidence to back those claims.
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, said in response to Guterres’ comparison, “Today at the event to mark International Women’s Day at the United Nations, the Secretary-General once again openly demonstrated his bias and hatred against Israel.”
Ambassador Erdan added, “What kind of twisted conscience does the Secretary-General have to dare to compare evidence of sexual abuse, rape and war crimes that Israeli women went through on October 7 and that our hostages are still going through, and between false and unsubstantiated claims of physical searches of Palestinian women suspected of terrorism?”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-23/
***
The U.S. military port that is intended to provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza is expected to take up to two months to construct and requires over 1,000 U.S. servicemembers to complete, the Pentagon said.
In a press conference on Friday, Press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters that that port would take at least 1,000 U.S. forces.
“We anticipate that it’ll take over 1,000 U.S. forces to participate in building this capability,” Ryder said.
“As far as time frame, several weeks, likely up to 60 days in order to deploy the forces and construct the causeway and the pier,” he said.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lower intensity exchanges of fire by both sides.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian gunmen set off an improvised explosive device near Israel Defense Forces troops in the West Bank town of Silat ad-Dhahr on Friday afternoon, wounding seven soldiers, the military and medics said.
The IDF said soldiers were carrying out “proactive activity” in the town when they came under attack.
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces in the village of Hajjah, east of Qalqilya
Confrontations broke out between rioters and security forces in the town of Osrin, south of Nablus
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s launched 15 drones according to the U.S. Navy with vessels and aircraft along with multiple coalition navy ships and aircraft shooting them down.
The Houthi claim they targeted American war destroyers in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden with 37 drones.
***
Thousands of supporters of Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists staged anti-American and anti-Israeli protests in Yemen on Friday, vowing that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts Sunday night, “is a month of jihad before it is a month of worship.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Peruvian police on Friday reported arresting two individuals – an Iranian and a Peruvian national – over alleged plans to attack an Israeli businessperson at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), scheduled later this year.
***
The Iranian national, Majid Azizi, 56, is reportedly a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is said to have obtained a Peruvian citizenship through marriage.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion.
Be it 17 or 37, the latest drone attack by the Houthis is one of the largest to date. Until the US and coalition decide to get serious and bomb the living daylights out of Houthi positions and command, this will only go further south.
Trying to monitor indicators by either Hezbollah and Israel on the timing or immanency of a ground operation start by either element. Preemptive strike option by Hezbollah grows with Ramadan fervor. However, movement of ground forces by Hezbollah will be a challenge given the intense surveillance Israel has on the region. Israeli preparations will be a little more set piece as I expect to see Reserve call-ups prior.
Misc of Note –
There is considerable speculation across the inter webs as to just how the other shoe will drop here in the US before the elections. Everything from a massive false flag event that the regime can use to justify marital law, to terror/unconventional warfare by terror or national-based (i.e. Chinese) illegals (again with one goal to be disruptions of the elections), to actual war with Russia or China - and everything in between.
In the New Normal setting we find our selves in, many of these scenarios once were considered to be totally unreasonable now have become very possible. My most significant concerns in order are -
1 Illegals inciting violence, either by Chinese or Iranian/islamic elements or by just massive rioting by the unwashed throngs wanting more and more freebies.
2 Assassination of Trump and / or key govt individuals. Besides Trump, conservative USSC members and congressmembers, even governors.
3 Financial collapse - Not a high finance guru, I continually see a lot of behind the doors reporting on banking, the Fed and other aspects of the economy to know that much of what the MSM has put forth as economic good news is lipstick on a pig. Remember back to 2008, how quickly Lehman’s scandal knocked the legs out from under everything. Things can happen very quickly.
4 International conflict - Growing Israel - arab conflict soon to spread to Lebanon and even Iran. US being caught in it and having naval assets targeted and hit by Iran. Another danger zone is Taiwan and if China sees weakness, it will put the screws on to a level of at least a blockade of some form.
5 Items 1,2 and 3 above could trigger a much hotter CW2 scenario with local / state forces lethally engaging rioters or even fed forces.
6 Massive vote fraud / election theft - Don’t mistake this for being at #6 at this point. With many months left to go, the above items are poised to make an impact first, and this will rise accordingly the closer we get. Mixed into this are
- Martial law in response to the above
- Riots/protests if Trump manages to be reelected, approaching or meeting CW2 levels and standards
7 And finally, globalist maneuvering under the cover of global chaos to incrementally to rapidly implementing key goals such as digital ID, digital (programmable) money, global medical control, the whole sexual pervasion movement of the LGBT et al community with globalist blessing (now expanding from transgender to a full on push for acceptance of pedophilia) and other global money policies.
To say that the country is at its most dangerous time in history is an understatement. And to fully map out actions with secondary and tertiary impacts is massive, as any one of the above can and likely would trigger another on the list- generating a domino effect.
There are milestones I’m marking as the year progresses now.
- The restless summer - high probability of nation-wide protests/riots - and on what grievance (Gaza, Trump, etc)
- Party national conventions
- Israel -arab war phases
- Illegal immigration and associated crimes and terrorism’
- Fed decisions later this year.
As I conduct my OODA loops, these will become more and more refined. But the outlook is increasing gray - there is a storm coming.
I’m reviewing my preparations and increasing my spiritual readiness, food and ammo stockpiles. reviewing medical and comms readiness (going for my General Ham license). Paying closer attention to locals (leaders and general population) because even here in the Redoubt there are those who are questionable in their love of country.
Thanks
When illegals are asked where they want to go in the US they pull out of piece of paper and read the name of a city.
NOT ONE reporter yet has asked them 'why' that city. The fact they all have pieces of paper with city names on them tells me that the city is being chosen by the cartels or by democrats pr both.
I'm guessing democrat thugs and goons via 'nonprofits' and NGO's are making the choices. With cartels choosing what whore houses and what drug rings...
Yep, it’s deliberate
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The Irish people overwhelmingly rejected two referendums to erase “woman” and “mother” from the Constitution and to make it gender neutral.
OBSERVATION - This is a repudiation of the WEF/globalist continued efforts to tear down the nuclear family via the whole ‘gender’ attack. Ireland is already swamped by migrants - mostly from N Africa - causing another attack on the Irish culture.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Palestinian protesters blocked the entrance to Cleveland airport on Saturday. They caused massive delays and traffic. People had to get out of their cars and walk to make their flights.
***
Additional thoughts on the NYC deployment of NG and State police to patrol the subway system. This is an incipient reading of the public (in NY anyway) of the establishment of a police state. Wait, what?. Tyranny creates the problem - rampant crime due to lack of police, lax prosecution and no jail for crimes - then ‘solves’ it via a militaristic solution, a creeping police state where the ‘police’ eventually have no accountability to the public for the rights lost, and as the NY governor openly stated - you don’t like to have your bags checked to ride the subway, find your own way to work.
Now project this onto national level chaos that is being created by the left. See the trend. The lawlessness is deliberate - necessary to ‘justify’ the police state.
***
With the declining pro-hamas protests ‘energy’, the radical, Antifa left is back down to lowered levels of operation. Spotty attempts to spread the ‘Stop Cop City’ vandalism and protests to other areas is seeing only sluggish responses.
However, I fully expect that things will kick into high gear once spring - fall better weather kicks in and the 2024 election approaches.
The pro-hamas supporters continue to be a plague to democrats more than republicans, since biden and the senate are maintaining a nominally pro-israel stance. But so far nothing has really kicked in to take the protests to the next level. Ramadan may trigger the islamic components - but the predominantly white, areligious liberals that have supplied much of the protest bodies knows or cares little about the holiday.
Speaking of Islam, globally the pro-hamas protests have increasingly morphed into islam to take over governments and cultures. Similar trend in some cases here. Oct7 triggered something globally, igniting the massive numbers of Muslims who’ve swarmed into Europe and the US (and other countries as well, but to a lesser extent) into pushing for dominance over the country they’ve planted themselves in. This is a very rapidly growing trend that may be the driver of further protests/riots and misc violence.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Economy-
Analysts are becoming concerned because on March 11, the Federal Reserve will end the bank term funding program (BTFP), a year after it began in response to the failures of regional banks Signature, Silvergate and Silicon Valley. These banks were brought down by customers withdrawing deposits en masse, both because many were tech or crypto businesses that needed money to cover losses, and because there were better savings rates available elsewhere.
Banks have had a year to adjust to higher interest rates, plus they can still borrow from the Fed through another facility called the discount window.
Nonetheless, the BTFP’s closure is likely to increase banks’ borrowing costs, meaning their profit margins will fall.
https://theconversation.com/why-economists-are-warning-of-another-us-banking-crisis-224092
IN RELATED! American banks saw their profits almost halve in the last quarter of 2023, with institutions facing more downside risk this year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Fourth-quarter net profits of 4,587 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the FDIC came in at $38.4 billion, a decline of $30 billion, or 43.9 percent from the previous quarter, according to a Thursday press release from the organization. Full-year 2023 net profit dropped by 2.3 percent from the previous year.
“Ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, continuing inflationary pressures, volatility in market interest rates, and emerging risks in some bank commercial real estate portfolios pose significant downside risks to the banking industry,” said FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg.
“These issues, together with funding and earnings pressures, will remain matters of ongoing supervisory attention by the FDIC.”
The decline in quarterly earnings was driven by “non-recurring, non-interest expenses” at large banks, which could refer to the special assessment fee that large banks had to pay the FDIC.
Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and two other larger financial institutions last year, the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund lost $16 billion. The FDIC then directed banks to pay a special assessment fee to recoup these losses and replenish the fund.
OBSERVATIONS - The above two articles should bring a great deal of concern. I’ve noted before that smaller banks are feeling the pinch as the Fed keeps the rate high - placing them at risk. Further reflections found in the touchstone housing and even commercial real estate sectors.
***
There seem to be growing concerns about interest rate hikes (!)) this year due to the risk of inflation and better-than-expected economic data. This would be a BIG pivot by the Fed, as expectations for a while now are that a drop in the prime rate would occur. If interest rates continue the developing trend to rebound - another hike could knock the legs out from under the economy in general. The “non” political Fed is aware of this to some degree, trying to stage a semblance of a ‘good’ economy in support of biden, but may find themselves painted into the corner.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
“Effective immediately, the issuance of reenlistment bonuses is suspended,” the March 1 memo said. The suspension is for bonuses that would have a payout between now and the end of 2025, effectively including anyone who would reenlist now, though existing contracts are not impacted, according to the document.
The sudden suspension is due to a miscalculation by Army National Guard planners who forecast the amount of funds needed and the anticipated volume of troops planning to continue their service, a spokesperson said. Guard officials are aiming to have bonuses back on track in April, meaning service members who reenlist now won’t be entitled to incentives, but could be in a few weeks if they wait.
This requires a pause to assess fiscal resources that will determine when we can resume offering new bonuses with the issuance of new reenlistment contracts,” Paul Swiergosz, a National Guard Bureau spokesperson, told Military.com in a statement.
The Army National Guard is facing a retention slump, missing its goal of keeping 36,000 soldiers from leaving the force by 1,000 last year. Meanwhile, the active-duty component of the Army has met its retention goals for the past half-decade with relative ease, and is already showing early signs of meeting its goal this year.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
Biden on Saturday signed a package of six government funding bills, narrowly averting a partial government shutdown, though a second tranche of bills has yet to be finalized ahead of a looming March 22 deadline.
***
The Jan. 6 select committee suppressed testimony from former White House deputy chief of staff Anthony Ornato that proves former President Donald Trump was “willing to ask for” 10,000 National Guard troops to safeguard the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, according to Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of the Committee on House Administration’s Subcommittee on Oversight.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-jan-6-loudermilk/2024/03/09/id/1156615/
OBSERVATION - We owe Richard Nixon and apology. The corruption uncovered by the democrats (and affiliated anti-Trump republicans) against Trump is unbelievably staggering by comparison. Add to this the fact that this J6 star chamber illegally DELETED files and testimonies just adds more fuel to the fire that this was a political hit.
What is even more aggravating to me is that no one, not a single person, on that committee will be held accountable for this gross breach of public trust and authority.
***
Members of the New York Fire Department (FDNY) who are fed-up with Trump-hating fascist attorney general Letitia James during a recent promotion ceremony are now facing severe consequences.
In response to the incident, FDNY Commissioner Laura Kavanagh has initiated a hunt for those responsible for the outburst. FDNY Chief of Department John Hodges sent an email to the department’s leadership, stating that the Bureau of Investigation and Trials (BITS) would be conducting an investigation into the matter.
He urged those involved to come forward voluntarily, implying that consequences would be less severe for those who did not wait to be “hunted down.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/outrageous-fdny-firefighters-who-booed-tyrant-ag-letitia/
OBSERVATION - Hunted down and re-educated - that is the threat. This in response to a valid, 1st amendment issue - though potentially ill placed at a promotion ceremony. The union is not supporting the action either.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In an interview with MSNBC President Joe Biden said he regretted using “illegal” to describe the illegal immigrant charged for the murder of Laken Riley in the State of the Union address and did not want to “disrespect” any immigrants in the country.
China –
An individual drove his car into Xi’s home overnight. No word on if deliberate or an accident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has reportedly removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities. The higher percentages represent removal of ‘newer’ tanks like the T72/80/90 series.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 39 Shahed drones across several regions in Central and Eastern Ukraine overnight.
Bakhmut -
Increased action to the south of the city.
Avdiivka -
After a pause in action, fighting has picked up west and northwest of Avdiivka.
Russian Territory –
Fire at oil depot in Kursk region after drone strike.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting Rostov Oblast on March 8-9 and may have struck a Russian aircraft plant refurbishing and modernizing Russian A-50 long range radar detection aircraft.
OSINT analysts utilizing satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack say the imagery validates the damage sustained by the facility.
Outlook —
It looks like Russia is trying to resume its efforts to maintain the initiative in its offensive. It appears that the biggest effort is being directed along the Avdiivka front, with secondary efforts on the Bakhumt and Kremenka fronts.
Ukraine, for its part, has greatly expanded its UAV productions and are increasingly attacking un to poorly defended key targets in Russia - oil depots, factories, etc.
Russia in response has largely been limited to Shahed drone strikes and some tactical ballistic missile attacks.. Launches from Black Sea and strategic bombers have disappeared. Again, speculation is that they are trying to conserve their missiles for a series of much larger attacks. This was the theory based on last years assault on Ukraine power supplies. A similar attack has not developed this year. The question I have is whether or not the supplies of Iranian and NK missiles will alter this status.
Wild Card is going - that of potential deployment of French and Polish troops on Ukrainian soil. See below under “Europe / NATO General”
Europe / NATO General –
The increasing rhetoric, especially from France and now Poland, seem to be trending toward actual boots on the ground in Ukraine. This would cause an order of magnitude escalation in the fight and an almost guaranteed expansion of Russian attacks outside of Ukraine. This comes with an overall mobilization of NATO forces to prepare to confront Russia on the battlefield - especially if Ukraine falls.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Spain’s prime minister says he will propose that parliament recognizes a Palestinian state
Israeli PM Netanyahu responds to Turkish President Erdogan comparing Netanyahu to Hitler: we don’t take morality advice from Erdogan. He supports Hamas killers & rapers. He persecutes the Kurds in his own country. We follow the laws of warfare
The Israeli Mossad said in a statement: Hamas is striving to set fire to the area during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip
***
The Hamas terrorist organization is starving Palestinians in Gaza by stealing food that arrives in humanitarian aid shipments and then selling it on the black market, according to Zvika Klein, editor of the Jerusalem Post.
Those who cannot afford to pay the exorbitant prices are going hungry, he said — not for lack of aid deliveries, but because Hamas seizes the aid on entry and uses it to enrich itself and fund its ongoing war against Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army: We bombed Hezbollah sites in Aita al-Shaab, Khirbet Salam, Al-Habaria, and Aitaroun southern of Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Security forces entered the town of Salem, east of Nablus
——— FORECAST ————————-
Ramadan is starting and who knows just what will ensue as islamic fervor rises.
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion.
Overall, things have hit a plateau for the moment. Israel is maintaining steady pressure on Hamas et al and progressing towards the Rafah assault.
Houthi may be assessing the latest barrage in order to adjust its tactics to be more successful.
Central / South America General-
Ha𝗶𝘁𝗶 𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗲 with gangs having essentially taken control of the hellhole country. Prisions have been attacked, releasing more gang members, police and govt buildings are under attack and many set on fire and after declaring a national emergency the PM flees the country.
OBSERVATION - Why worry? Because every other episode of violence like this has initiated a flood of illegal ‘refugees’ into the US. These feed off the public trough and bring with them the same violent tendencies and culture they reported have fled.
Argentina -
Argentine President Javier Milei starts implementing the policies of El Salvador’s Pres. Nayib Bukele’s policies against criminal gangs & drug traffickers
Misc of Note –
A great deal of reporting on the spat of airline incidents - doors blowing off, wheels falling off, engines catching fire, collisions on the tarmac, etc with the question being - is this the result of DEI?
I really don’t have an answer to connect the dots to DEI. I am suspicious in that post-wuhan plandemic “New Normal”, the inability of airline industry in general to (re)hire qualified individuals has suffered like the other industries - suggesting to me that poorly (or shudder, unqualified) hires have moved in.
What we are seeing could also be information bias - sudden fixation and reporting of incidents that have occurred at same levels for a long time - only now being brought to the forefront. I place a lower likelihood on this.
Issues are brewing in the airline industry and the FAA (recent scary job ads for even unqualified and mental cases - in our control towers and radar rooms!)
Let them eat cake.
And yet those idiots will continue to vote democrat.
In a completely staged interview with MSNBC illegal President Joe Biden said he regretted being caught using “illegal” to describe the illegal immigrant charged for the illegal murder of Laken Riley in the illegal State of the Union address and did not want to “disrespect” any illegal immigrants in the country.
I've got a link for you... weill be back in a second or two.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Room
from link:
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday [ed: Jan 24] announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The program will continue to make loans until that time and is available as an additional source of liquidity for eligible institutions.
Congrats on that Oscar!
I hate the spring time change. When will we ever get rid of it - its usefulness expired a long time ago.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Farmer protests are NOT finished against WEF instituted laws in Europe. French and Spanish farmers have BLOCKED their shared border and have given the EU until June 1st to drop fuel taxes.
Farmer protests are now spooling up in Canada.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In response to a new Politico article about how U.S. intelligence officials are allegedly planning to brief Trump but have reservations due to “his handling of classified information,” Brennan told Wallace:
“Now, I’m pretty certain that my former intelligence colleagues will provide briefings that are not going to do any type of damage to sources and methods in terms of providing information to Donald Trump that he could misuse.
But they will provide analytic overviews and briefings about some of the world’s hot spots, letting Donald Trump know what the assessments are at this point.
I think it’s going to be analysis that will be devoid of the sources and methods, the sensitive things that we are most concerned about, the types of things that were in all those documents that he had in the bathroom, and all those areas in Mar-a-Lago.”
Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff (CA) on Sunday echoed John Brennan and said the Intel Community will sabotage Trump by withholding intelligence and ‘dumbing down’ his daily briefings this summer.
OBSERVATION - Posting this here because the CIA has inserted itself into essentially a CW2 situation. That the CIA would even consider to provide Trump something short of factual intelligence - even after the election - is a sign that this portion of the govt is at war with the right. Remember, biden stole and stored highly classified, compartmentalized documents in a cardboard box in the garage next to his car - and he’s not getting a shortened edition of the intel briefing. This is the same Brennan that moved the Russian hoax against Trump as well as getting other stooges to sign on to claim Hunter’s laptop was a fake. The CIA needs to be gutted to get rid of this infestation.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Economy-
The unemployment rate jumped unexpectedly, while the employment numbers reported in the previous two months were revised down significantly, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for February, released Friday.
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, which many market analysists had expected to stay the same or decline, jumped from 3.7% to 3.9%.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 275,000 from January, failing to meet expectations.
Meanwhile, the robust job gains the BLS reported for December and January, which had baffled experts and contradicted other economic indicators, were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs.
The constant downward revisions, from the monthly numbers initially reported, have created distrust of the government’s claims.
“Yeah, I just don’t buy it,” Fox Business’s Cheryl Casone said last month, reacting to the January numbers claimed by the BLS at the time. “Full-time jobs, what do we do with that data? I think, at this point, we wait until next month.”
Indeed, December’s job growth was lowered by 43,000, while January’s was reduced by 124,000, in the following report, released Friday.
According to Friday’s report:
- The 3.9% unemployment rate is up from the 3.6% rate recorded a year earlier (February 2023).
- The number of unemployed persons is up from 6.0 million a year earlier to 6.5 million last month.
- The number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000, compared to January, to 1.7 million.
- The labor force participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month.
By sector, Health care (+67,000 jobs), government (+52,000), and food services/drinking places (+42,000) contributed the highest employment gains to the seasonally-adjusted 275,000 increase from January.
OBSERVATION - Getting to be that time of the month when economic numbers for the previous month start trickling out. Key note is that the December 23 and Jan 24 numbers were significantly lowered - after being touted when they first came out.
As noted above “The constant downward revisions, from the monthly numbers initially reported, have created distrust of the government’s claims.” is the new word.
***
American billionaires are selling stocks by the boatload - sparking fears of an impending financial disaster.
Jeff Bezos - the third-richest man behind Louis Vuitton’s Bernard Arnaut and Elon Musk - unloaded $8.5billion in Amazon shares this month alone.
Mark Zuckerberg - the fourth-richest - sold about 1.4 million Meta shares worth roughly $638million.
Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan, shilled $150 million this past week, in his first cash-out since taking the reins at the bank nearly two decades ago.
Within days, Apollo Global Management’s Leon Black also enacted his first-ever sale, shedding $172.8million in his equity firm after 34 years. Walmart’s Walton family sold $1.5billion in a week, bringing its total sale proceeds to $2.3billion since December.
The series of transactions were all made within weeks of each other, and have already sparked conversation amongst onlookers.
OBSERVATION - As the article notes, there are several theories being bantered about over the timing and amounts of these transactions. Over all, the guess is that they see ‘uncertainty’ in the economy in the upcoming months due in part to the elections and other potential factors that would stall the economy. Some are saying they are trying to ‘diversify’. What ever the reason, these heavyweights are responding at market highs to something that has appeared on their common radar.
Illegal Immigration –
With Haiti in the mix remember this -
In December 2022, the Biden DHS began a program to allow 30,000 migrants in every MONTH from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
They can enter the US without a visa and indefinitely stay here LEGALLY.
NOTE - 4k gang members just broke out of prison in Haiti in the past week. The senior gang leader is nicknamed “Barbecue” - because of the canablism of his victims.
NOTE - Venezuelan gangs taking over in NYC.
***
Migrant gang members are selling fake American identification and social security cards on street corners in New York City.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
Russia is estimated to be producing about 250.000 artillery shells per month (3 million per year) according to NATO estimates. The US and Europe combined have the capacity to generate only about 100.000 shells a month (1.2 million a year) to send to Ukraine, CNN writes.
However, Russia is running out of functional artillery pieces at a far faster rate that even pulling mothballed pieces can’t keep up with the losses.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy was dismissed, according to Russian media.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 25 Shahed drones overnight. Targeted areas include Odesa and Kharkiv
During the night, 4 drones were destroyed over the territory of the Bryansk region and 2 over the territory of the Oryol region, - Russian Ministry of Defense.
There is increasing evidence that Russia managed to take out a Patriot ADA system with an Iskander missile in recent weeks. They also claim to have taken out several S300 systems as well.
Russian state news agency TASS claimed that three launchers may have been destroyed but other sources reported two.
‘The Iskander tactical missile system presumably wiped out three launchers of the US-made Patriot system near Pokrovsk,’ a source told TASS.
Each battery has five components: The missiles themselves, the missile launcher, a radar antenna, a control truck and a power-plant truck.
NOTE - Russian propaganda has consistently made similar claims about taking out western systems. This claim of taking out the launch vehicles (two to three) has gained some credibility of recent. If so, it would be a serious hit on Ukraine’s ADA network. Because of this, it is not listed under RUMINT.
Robotyne Axis -.
Heavy fighting resumed in Robotyne. Russians that attacked from the west, and were reportedly repelled and finished off when trying to grab a foothold in the ruins. Southwest of Vuhledar on the Zaporizhzia border, Ukraine repelled also another mechanized attack from Russians trying to advance. Several attempts in this direction have been recorded.
Avdiivka -
Russia pressing the attack from Avdiivka southward to Marinka.
Russian Territory –
In St. Petersburg, explosions were heard near the airport from a suspected Ukrainian drone strike. A hangar is reportedly on fire.
Outlook —
The loss of Ukrainian ADA systems is concerning as Russia appears to be returning the favor of Ukraine’s successful attacks against Russian assets. It also means Ukraine has to step up its OPSEC and movements of these resources.
Russia intensifying its efforts on the Avdiivka and Maryinka fronts as these areas have seen the greatest gains of the Russian winter/spring offensive. However, they are taking a beating and I wonder just how much more armor/APCs can be lost before it really boggs down.
Belarus -
Belarus is conducting a large scale military readiness exercise.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launches large rocket barrage
- Ramadan begins, arabs upset Israel won’t unilaterally install a ceasefire.
- Tensions are high in Jerusalem as arabs pressure govt over access to the temple mount.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh released a video in which he threatened that Israel won’t recover any of the 134 hostages unless the IDF leaves Gaza. Haniyeh left Gaza for a life of luxury and comfort in Qatar in 2017.
***
Jordanian Foreign Minister: Israel’s move to restrict worshipers’ access to Al-Aqsa Mosque is pushing towards an explosive situation
***
The Palestinian Authority and Hamas are competing to win the support of large Palestinian clans in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The competition comes in the wake of the talk about handing control over the Gaza Strip to local clans after the removal of Hamas from power.
The P.A. and Hamas understand that the backing of the clans is crucial for maintaining their control over the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. That’s why P.A. and Hamas leaders have always treated the large families and their leaders with utmost respect. In some instances, clan leaders were elevated to the unofficial position of supreme judges and arbitrators, replacing the official judiciary and law enforcement of both organizations.
The Israel-Hamas war has undermined the Iran-backed terror group’s grip over the Gaza Strip. Hamas is no longer functioning as a de facto government in the coastal enclave, and most of its security and civilian institutions are in a state of paralysis.
The assumption among some Israelis and Palestinians is that the decline in Hamas’s power would pave the way for the re-emergence of the clans as significant players in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.algemeiner.com/2024/03/10/pa-hamas-vie-for-support-of-palestinian-clans/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Some 80 rockets were fired overnight from Lebanon by Hezbollah at northern Israel. Largest barrage yet.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian Civilian Aviation has announced the suspension of air traffic between Tehran and Damascus due to special circumstances in Syria, (despite things being normal) which indicates major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah forces both in Lebanon and Southwest Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian Foreign Ministry: Israel is igniting tensions in the West Bank with its security and military measures
Confrontations broke out between youths and security forces in the town of Tuqu’, southeast of Bethlehem
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reuters, from the British Maritime Trade Operations Authority: A report of an incident 71 nautical miles southwest of Al-Salif, Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Pro-Palestine protests took place outside the opening of a National Holocaust museum in Amsterdam, where Israeli President Isaac Herzog is in attendance.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
Plans continue to move forward on entering Rafah to liquidate Hamas forces there. Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza.
Watching Hezbollah, as the recent rocket attack appears to be the largest to date. Could they be testing the waters for a preemptive strike? Israel continues to hammer Hezbollah command and other key sites in Lebanon.
Houthi are relatively quiet after the recent large attacks on coalition naval vessels. US is not doing much to hurt them.
Central / South America General-
U.S. evacuated Haitian staff in middle-of-night as the US flies in Marines to reinforce embassy in Haiti.
Haiti: The current security situation in Haiti is unpredictable and dangerous. We are aware that there are few or no commercial options to depart Haiti safely at this time. As they become available, we urge U.S. citizens to take advantage of them.
The U.S. Embassy’s ability to assist U.S. citizens is severely limited. While the U.S. Embassy is unable to facilitate travel out of the country, U.S. citizens in Haiti who wish to record their presence and provide updated contact information should complete our crisis intake form at:
mytravel.state.gov/s/crisis-intake.
Our Travel Advisory for Haiti remains at Level Four: Do not travel to Haiti.
Misc of Note –
I keep reformulating potential scenarios for the rest of this year because for me, it provides focus for my time in research. A reformulation of intelligence PIRs and IRs. It helps to reformulate and I’m already looking at what I posted a couple days ago, in just a different manner.
I actually pull something wonderful out of this: They are expecting a Trump win.
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