Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The Irish people overwhelmingly rejected two referendums to erase “woman” and “mother” from the Constitution and to make it gender neutral.
OBSERVATION - This is a repudiation of the WEF/globalist continued efforts to tear down the nuclear family via the whole ‘gender’ attack. Ireland is already swamped by migrants - mostly from N Africa - causing another attack on the Irish culture.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Palestinian protesters blocked the entrance to Cleveland airport on Saturday. They caused massive delays and traffic. People had to get out of their cars and walk to make their flights.
***
Additional thoughts on the NYC deployment of NG and State police to patrol the subway system. This is an incipient reading of the public (in NY anyway) of the establishment of a police state. Wait, what?. Tyranny creates the problem - rampant crime due to lack of police, lax prosecution and no jail for crimes - then ‘solves’ it via a militaristic solution, a creeping police state where the ‘police’ eventually have no accountability to the public for the rights lost, and as the NY governor openly stated - you don’t like to have your bags checked to ride the subway, find your own way to work.
Now project this onto national level chaos that is being created by the left. See the trend. The lawlessness is deliberate - necessary to ‘justify’ the police state.
***
With the declining pro-hamas protests ‘energy’, the radical, Antifa left is back down to lowered levels of operation. Spotty attempts to spread the ‘Stop Cop City’ vandalism and protests to other areas is seeing only sluggish responses.
However, I fully expect that things will kick into high gear once spring - fall better weather kicks in and the 2024 election approaches.
The pro-hamas supporters continue to be a plague to democrats more than republicans, since biden and the senate are maintaining a nominally pro-israel stance. But so far nothing has really kicked in to take the protests to the next level. Ramadan may trigger the islamic components - but the predominantly white, areligious liberals that have supplied much of the protest bodies knows or cares little about the holiday.
Speaking of Islam, globally the pro-hamas protests have increasingly morphed into islam to take over governments and cultures. Similar trend in some cases here. Oct7 triggered something globally, igniting the massive numbers of Muslims who’ve swarmed into Europe and the US (and other countries as well, but to a lesser extent) into pushing for dominance over the country they’ve planted themselves in. This is a very rapidly growing trend that may be the driver of further protests/riots and misc violence.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Economy-
Analysts are becoming concerned because on March 11, the Federal Reserve will end the bank term funding program (BTFP), a year after it began in response to the failures of regional banks Signature, Silvergate and Silicon Valley. These banks were brought down by customers withdrawing deposits en masse, both because many were tech or crypto businesses that needed money to cover losses, and because there were better savings rates available elsewhere.
Banks have had a year to adjust to higher interest rates, plus they can still borrow from the Fed through another facility called the discount window.
Nonetheless, the BTFP’s closure is likely to increase banks’ borrowing costs, meaning their profit margins will fall.
https://theconversation.com/why-economists-are-warning-of-another-us-banking-crisis-224092
IN RELATED! American banks saw their profits almost halve in the last quarter of 2023, with institutions facing more downside risk this year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Fourth-quarter net profits of 4,587 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the FDIC came in at $38.4 billion, a decline of $30 billion, or 43.9 percent from the previous quarter, according to a Thursday press release from the organization. Full-year 2023 net profit dropped by 2.3 percent from the previous year.
“Ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, continuing inflationary pressures, volatility in market interest rates, and emerging risks in some bank commercial real estate portfolios pose significant downside risks to the banking industry,” said FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg.
“These issues, together with funding and earnings pressures, will remain matters of ongoing supervisory attention by the FDIC.”
The decline in quarterly earnings was driven by “non-recurring, non-interest expenses” at large banks, which could refer to the special assessment fee that large banks had to pay the FDIC.
Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and two other larger financial institutions last year, the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund lost $16 billion. The FDIC then directed banks to pay a special assessment fee to recoup these losses and replenish the fund.
OBSERVATIONS - The above two articles should bring a great deal of concern. I’ve noted before that smaller banks are feeling the pinch as the Fed keeps the rate high - placing them at risk. Further reflections found in the touchstone housing and even commercial real estate sectors.
***
There seem to be growing concerns about interest rate hikes (!)) this year due to the risk of inflation and better-than-expected economic data. This would be a BIG pivot by the Fed, as expectations for a while now are that a drop in the prime rate would occur. If interest rates continue the developing trend to rebound - another hike could knock the legs out from under the economy in general. The “non” political Fed is aware of this to some degree, trying to stage a semblance of a ‘good’ economy in support of biden, but may find themselves painted into the corner.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
“Effective immediately, the issuance of reenlistment bonuses is suspended,” the March 1 memo said. The suspension is for bonuses that would have a payout between now and the end of 2025, effectively including anyone who would reenlist now, though existing contracts are not impacted, according to the document.
The sudden suspension is due to a miscalculation by Army National Guard planners who forecast the amount of funds needed and the anticipated volume of troops planning to continue their service, a spokesperson said. Guard officials are aiming to have bonuses back on track in April, meaning service members who reenlist now won’t be entitled to incentives, but could be in a few weeks if they wait.
This requires a pause to assess fiscal resources that will determine when we can resume offering new bonuses with the issuance of new reenlistment contracts,” Paul Swiergosz, a National Guard Bureau spokesperson, told Military.com in a statement.
The Army National Guard is facing a retention slump, missing its goal of keeping 36,000 soldiers from leaving the force by 1,000 last year. Meanwhile, the active-duty component of the Army has met its retention goals for the past half-decade with relative ease, and is already showing early signs of meeting its goal this year.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
Biden on Saturday signed a package of six government funding bills, narrowly averting a partial government shutdown, though a second tranche of bills has yet to be finalized ahead of a looming March 22 deadline.
***
The Jan. 6 select committee suppressed testimony from former White House deputy chief of staff Anthony Ornato that proves former President Donald Trump was “willing to ask for” 10,000 National Guard troops to safeguard the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, according to Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of the Committee on House Administration’s Subcommittee on Oversight.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-jan-6-loudermilk/2024/03/09/id/1156615/
OBSERVATION - We owe Richard Nixon and apology. The corruption uncovered by the democrats (and affiliated anti-Trump republicans) against Trump is unbelievably staggering by comparison. Add to this the fact that this J6 star chamber illegally DELETED files and testimonies just adds more fuel to the fire that this was a political hit.
What is even more aggravating to me is that no one, not a single person, on that committee will be held accountable for this gross breach of public trust and authority.
***
Members of the New York Fire Department (FDNY) who are fed-up with Trump-hating fascist attorney general Letitia James during a recent promotion ceremony are now facing severe consequences.
In response to the incident, FDNY Commissioner Laura Kavanagh has initiated a hunt for those responsible for the outburst. FDNY Chief of Department John Hodges sent an email to the department’s leadership, stating that the Bureau of Investigation and Trials (BITS) would be conducting an investigation into the matter.
He urged those involved to come forward voluntarily, implying that consequences would be less severe for those who did not wait to be “hunted down.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/outrageous-fdny-firefighters-who-booed-tyrant-ag-letitia/
OBSERVATION - Hunted down and re-educated - that is the threat. This in response to a valid, 1st amendment issue - though potentially ill placed at a promotion ceremony. The union is not supporting the action either.
Biden / Harris Watch –
In an interview with MSNBC President Joe Biden said he regretted using “illegal” to describe the illegal immigrant charged for the murder of Laken Riley in the State of the Union address and did not want to “disrespect” any immigrants in the country.
China –
An individual drove his car into Xi’s home overnight. No word on if deliberate or an accident.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has reportedly removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities. The higher percentages represent removal of ‘newer’ tanks like the T72/80/90 series.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 39 Shahed drones across several regions in Central and Eastern Ukraine overnight.
Bakhmut -
Increased action to the south of the city.
Avdiivka -
After a pause in action, fighting has picked up west and northwest of Avdiivka.
Russian Territory –
Fire at oil depot in Kursk region after drone strike.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting Rostov Oblast on March 8-9 and may have struck a Russian aircraft plant refurbishing and modernizing Russian A-50 long range radar detection aircraft.
OSINT analysts utilizing satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack say the imagery validates the damage sustained by the facility.
Outlook —
It looks like Russia is trying to resume its efforts to maintain the initiative in its offensive. It appears that the biggest effort is being directed along the Avdiivka front, with secondary efforts on the Bakhumt and Kremenka fronts.
Ukraine, for its part, has greatly expanded its UAV productions and are increasingly attacking un to poorly defended key targets in Russia - oil depots, factories, etc.
Russia in response has largely been limited to Shahed drone strikes and some tactical ballistic missile attacks.. Launches from Black Sea and strategic bombers have disappeared. Again, speculation is that they are trying to conserve their missiles for a series of much larger attacks. This was the theory based on last years assault on Ukraine power supplies. A similar attack has not developed this year. The question I have is whether or not the supplies of Iranian and NK missiles will alter this status.
Wild Card is going - that of potential deployment of French and Polish troops on Ukrainian soil. See below under “Europe / NATO General”
Europe / NATO General –
The increasing rhetoric, especially from France and now Poland, seem to be trending toward actual boots on the ground in Ukraine. This would cause an order of magnitude escalation in the fight and an almost guaranteed expansion of Russian attacks outside of Ukraine. This comes with an overall mobilization of NATO forces to prepare to confront Russia on the battlefield - especially if Ukraine falls.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Spain’s prime minister says he will propose that parliament recognizes a Palestinian state
Israeli PM Netanyahu responds to Turkish President Erdogan comparing Netanyahu to Hitler: we don’t take morality advice from Erdogan. He supports Hamas killers & rapers. He persecutes the Kurds in his own country. We follow the laws of warfare
The Israeli Mossad said in a statement: Hamas is striving to set fire to the area during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip
***
The Hamas terrorist organization is starving Palestinians in Gaza by stealing food that arrives in humanitarian aid shipments and then selling it on the black market, according to Zvika Klein, editor of the Jerusalem Post.
Those who cannot afford to pay the exorbitant prices are going hungry, he said — not for lack of aid deliveries, but because Hamas seizes the aid on entry and uses it to enrich itself and fund its ongoing war against Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army: We bombed Hezbollah sites in Aita al-Shaab, Khirbet Salam, Al-Habaria, and Aitaroun southern of Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Security forces entered the town of Salem, east of Nablus
——— FORECAST ————————-
Ramadan is starting and who knows just what will ensue as islamic fervor rises.
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion.
Overall, things have hit a plateau for the moment. Israel is maintaining steady pressure on Hamas et al and progressing towards the Rafah assault.
Houthi may be assessing the latest barrage in order to adjust its tactics to be more successful.
Central / South America General-
Ha𝗶𝘁𝗶 𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗲 with gangs having essentially taken control of the hellhole country. Prisions have been attacked, releasing more gang members, police and govt buildings are under attack and many set on fire and after declaring a national emergency the PM flees the country.
OBSERVATION - Why worry? Because every other episode of violence like this has initiated a flood of illegal ‘refugees’ into the US. These feed off the public trough and bring with them the same violent tendencies and culture they reported have fled.
Argentina -
Argentine President Javier Milei starts implementing the policies of El Salvador’s Pres. Nayib Bukele’s policies against criminal gangs & drug traffickers
Misc of Note –
A great deal of reporting on the spat of airline incidents - doors blowing off, wheels falling off, engines catching fire, collisions on the tarmac, etc with the question being - is this the result of DEI?
I really don’t have an answer to connect the dots to DEI. I am suspicious in that post-wuhan plandemic “New Normal”, the inability of airline industry in general to (re)hire qualified individuals has suffered like the other industries - suggesting to me that poorly (or shudder, unqualified) hires have moved in.
What we are seeing could also be information bias - sudden fixation and reporting of incidents that have occurred at same levels for a long time - only now being brought to the forefront. I place a lower likelihood on this.
Issues are brewing in the airline industry and the FAA (recent scary job ads for even unqualified and mental cases - in our control towers and radar rooms!)
Let them eat cake.
And yet those idiots will continue to vote democrat.
In a completely staged interview with MSNBC illegal President Joe Biden said he regretted being caught using “illegal” to describe the illegal immigrant charged for the illegal murder of Laken Riley in the illegal State of the Union address and did not want to “disrespect” any illegal immigrants in the country.
I've got a link for you... weill be back in a second or two.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Room
from link:
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday [ed: Jan 24] announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The program will continue to make loans until that time and is available as an additional source of liquidity for eligible institutions.
Congrats on that Oscar!
I hate the spring time change. When will we ever get rid of it - its usefulness expired a long time ago.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Farmer protests are NOT finished against WEF instituted laws in Europe. French and Spanish farmers have BLOCKED their shared border and have given the EU until June 1st to drop fuel taxes.
Farmer protests are now spooling up in Canada.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In response to a new Politico article about how U.S. intelligence officials are allegedly planning to brief Trump but have reservations due to “his handling of classified information,” Brennan told Wallace:
“Now, I’m pretty certain that my former intelligence colleagues will provide briefings that are not going to do any type of damage to sources and methods in terms of providing information to Donald Trump that he could misuse.
But they will provide analytic overviews and briefings about some of the world’s hot spots, letting Donald Trump know what the assessments are at this point.
I think it’s going to be analysis that will be devoid of the sources and methods, the sensitive things that we are most concerned about, the types of things that were in all those documents that he had in the bathroom, and all those areas in Mar-a-Lago.”
Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff (CA) on Sunday echoed John Brennan and said the Intel Community will sabotage Trump by withholding intelligence and ‘dumbing down’ his daily briefings this summer.
OBSERVATION - Posting this here because the CIA has inserted itself into essentially a CW2 situation. That the CIA would even consider to provide Trump something short of factual intelligence - even after the election - is a sign that this portion of the govt is at war with the right. Remember, biden stole and stored highly classified, compartmentalized documents in a cardboard box in the garage next to his car - and he’s not getting a shortened edition of the intel briefing. This is the same Brennan that moved the Russian hoax against Trump as well as getting other stooges to sign on to claim Hunter’s laptop was a fake. The CIA needs to be gutted to get rid of this infestation.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Economy-
The unemployment rate jumped unexpectedly, while the employment numbers reported in the previous two months were revised down significantly, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for February, released Friday.
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, which many market analysists had expected to stay the same or decline, jumped from 3.7% to 3.9%.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 275,000 from January, failing to meet expectations.
Meanwhile, the robust job gains the BLS reported for December and January, which had baffled experts and contradicted other economic indicators, were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs.
The constant downward revisions, from the monthly numbers initially reported, have created distrust of the government’s claims.
“Yeah, I just don’t buy it,” Fox Business’s Cheryl Casone said last month, reacting to the January numbers claimed by the BLS at the time. “Full-time jobs, what do we do with that data? I think, at this point, we wait until next month.”
Indeed, December’s job growth was lowered by 43,000, while January’s was reduced by 124,000, in the following report, released Friday.
According to Friday’s report:
- The 3.9% unemployment rate is up from the 3.6% rate recorded a year earlier (February 2023).
- The number of unemployed persons is up from 6.0 million a year earlier to 6.5 million last month.
- The number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000, compared to January, to 1.7 million.
- The labor force participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month.
By sector, Health care (+67,000 jobs), government (+52,000), and food services/drinking places (+42,000) contributed the highest employment gains to the seasonally-adjusted 275,000 increase from January.
OBSERVATION - Getting to be that time of the month when economic numbers for the previous month start trickling out. Key note is that the December 23 and Jan 24 numbers were significantly lowered - after being touted when they first came out.
As noted above “The constant downward revisions, from the monthly numbers initially reported, have created distrust of the government’s claims.” is the new word.
***
American billionaires are selling stocks by the boatload - sparking fears of an impending financial disaster.
Jeff Bezos - the third-richest man behind Louis Vuitton’s Bernard Arnaut and Elon Musk - unloaded $8.5billion in Amazon shares this month alone.
Mark Zuckerberg - the fourth-richest - sold about 1.4 million Meta shares worth roughly $638million.
Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan, shilled $150 million this past week, in his first cash-out since taking the reins at the bank nearly two decades ago.
Within days, Apollo Global Management’s Leon Black also enacted his first-ever sale, shedding $172.8million in his equity firm after 34 years. Walmart’s Walton family sold $1.5billion in a week, bringing its total sale proceeds to $2.3billion since December.
The series of transactions were all made within weeks of each other, and have already sparked conversation amongst onlookers.
OBSERVATION - As the article notes, there are several theories being bantered about over the timing and amounts of these transactions. Over all, the guess is that they see ‘uncertainty’ in the economy in the upcoming months due in part to the elections and other potential factors that would stall the economy. Some are saying they are trying to ‘diversify’. What ever the reason, these heavyweights are responding at market highs to something that has appeared on their common radar.
Illegal Immigration –
With Haiti in the mix remember this -
In December 2022, the Biden DHS began a program to allow 30,000 migrants in every MONTH from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
They can enter the US without a visa and indefinitely stay here LEGALLY.
NOTE - 4k gang members just broke out of prison in Haiti in the past week. The senior gang leader is nicknamed “Barbecue” - because of the canablism of his victims.
NOTE - Venezuelan gangs taking over in NYC.
***
Migrant gang members are selling fake American identification and social security cards on street corners in New York City.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Logistics –
Russia is estimated to be producing about 250.000 artillery shells per month (3 million per year) according to NATO estimates. The US and Europe combined have the capacity to generate only about 100.000 shells a month (1.2 million a year) to send to Ukraine, CNN writes.
However, Russia is running out of functional artillery pieces at a far faster rate that even pulling mothballed pieces can’t keep up with the losses.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy was dismissed, according to Russian media.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 25 Shahed drones overnight. Targeted areas include Odesa and Kharkiv
During the night, 4 drones were destroyed over the territory of the Bryansk region and 2 over the territory of the Oryol region, - Russian Ministry of Defense.
There is increasing evidence that Russia managed to take out a Patriot ADA system with an Iskander missile in recent weeks. They also claim to have taken out several S300 systems as well.
Russian state news agency TASS claimed that three launchers may have been destroyed but other sources reported two.
‘The Iskander tactical missile system presumably wiped out three launchers of the US-made Patriot system near Pokrovsk,’ a source told TASS.
Each battery has five components: The missiles themselves, the missile launcher, a radar antenna, a control truck and a power-plant truck.
NOTE - Russian propaganda has consistently made similar claims about taking out western systems. This claim of taking out the launch vehicles (two to three) has gained some credibility of recent. If so, it would be a serious hit on Ukraine’s ADA network. Because of this, it is not listed under RUMINT.
Robotyne Axis -.
Heavy fighting resumed in Robotyne. Russians that attacked from the west, and were reportedly repelled and finished off when trying to grab a foothold in the ruins. Southwest of Vuhledar on the Zaporizhzia border, Ukraine repelled also another mechanized attack from Russians trying to advance. Several attempts in this direction have been recorded.
Avdiivka -
Russia pressing the attack from Avdiivka southward to Marinka.
Russian Territory –
In St. Petersburg, explosions were heard near the airport from a suspected Ukrainian drone strike. A hangar is reportedly on fire.
Outlook —
The loss of Ukrainian ADA systems is concerning as Russia appears to be returning the favor of Ukraine’s successful attacks against Russian assets. It also means Ukraine has to step up its OPSEC and movements of these resources.
Russia intensifying its efforts on the Avdiivka and Maryinka fronts as these areas have seen the greatest gains of the Russian winter/spring offensive. However, they are taking a beating and I wonder just how much more armor/APCs can be lost before it really boggs down.
Belarus -
Belarus is conducting a large scale military readiness exercise.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launches large rocket barrage
- Ramadan begins, arabs upset Israel won’t unilaterally install a ceasefire.
- Tensions are high in Jerusalem as arabs pressure govt over access to the temple mount.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh released a video in which he threatened that Israel won’t recover any of the 134 hostages unless the IDF leaves Gaza. Haniyeh left Gaza for a life of luxury and comfort in Qatar in 2017.
***
Jordanian Foreign Minister: Israel’s move to restrict worshipers’ access to Al-Aqsa Mosque is pushing towards an explosive situation
***
The Palestinian Authority and Hamas are competing to win the support of large Palestinian clans in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The competition comes in the wake of the talk about handing control over the Gaza Strip to local clans after the removal of Hamas from power.
The P.A. and Hamas understand that the backing of the clans is crucial for maintaining their control over the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. That’s why P.A. and Hamas leaders have always treated the large families and their leaders with utmost respect. In some instances, clan leaders were elevated to the unofficial position of supreme judges and arbitrators, replacing the official judiciary and law enforcement of both organizations.
The Israel-Hamas war has undermined the Iran-backed terror group’s grip over the Gaza Strip. Hamas is no longer functioning as a de facto government in the coastal enclave, and most of its security and civilian institutions are in a state of paralysis.
The assumption among some Israelis and Palestinians is that the decline in Hamas’s power would pave the way for the re-emergence of the clans as significant players in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.algemeiner.com/2024/03/10/pa-hamas-vie-for-support-of-palestinian-clans/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Some 80 rockets were fired overnight from Lebanon by Hezbollah at northern Israel. Largest barrage yet.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian Civilian Aviation has announced the suspension of air traffic between Tehran and Damascus due to special circumstances in Syria, (despite things being normal) which indicates major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah forces both in Lebanon and Southwest Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian Foreign Ministry: Israel is igniting tensions in the West Bank with its security and military measures
Confrontations broke out between youths and security forces in the town of Tuqu’, southeast of Bethlehem
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reuters, from the British Maritime Trade Operations Authority: A report of an incident 71 nautical miles southwest of Al-Salif, Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Pro-Palestine protests took place outside the opening of a National Holocaust museum in Amsterdam, where Israeli President Isaac Herzog is in attendance.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
Plans continue to move forward on entering Rafah to liquidate Hamas forces there. Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza.
Watching Hezbollah, as the recent rocket attack appears to be the largest to date. Could they be testing the waters for a preemptive strike? Israel continues to hammer Hezbollah command and other key sites in Lebanon.
Houthi are relatively quiet after the recent large attacks on coalition naval vessels. US is not doing much to hurt them.
Central / South America General-
U.S. evacuated Haitian staff in middle-of-night as the US flies in Marines to reinforce embassy in Haiti.
Haiti: The current security situation in Haiti is unpredictable and dangerous. We are aware that there are few or no commercial options to depart Haiti safely at this time. As they become available, we urge U.S. citizens to take advantage of them.
The U.S. Embassy’s ability to assist U.S. citizens is severely limited. While the U.S. Embassy is unable to facilitate travel out of the country, U.S. citizens in Haiti who wish to record their presence and provide updated contact information should complete our crisis intake form at:
mytravel.state.gov/s/crisis-intake.
Our Travel Advisory for Haiti remains at Level Four: Do not travel to Haiti.
Misc of Note –
I keep reformulating potential scenarios for the rest of this year because for me, it provides focus for my time in research. A reformulation of intelligence PIRs and IRs. It helps to reformulate and I’m already looking at what I posted a couple days ago, in just a different manner.