CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In the face of NYCs mayor adams claiming that violent crime is down, NY Gov has deployed NG troops into the NY subway system - setting up TSA equivalents of checkpoints.
***
The federal government has been illegally surveilling and building profiles for Americans in secret portal called DSAC for those who oppose firearm restrictions, lockdowns & vaccine mandates, and or support border security and are labeling them as domestic extremists.
OBSERVATION - Covert surveillance of the citizens of a nation is a huge red flag when it comes to the govt on the brink of going tyrannical. This is apparently just another method the regime has been using to compile data for its list of enemies. There is no doubt that this list will be used to target civilians when the regime decides to turn the corner and go full blown tyrannical. There is no other reason for the compilation of such data.
***
As will be noted below under politics, hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters shut down Pennsylvania Ave right outside the US Capitol, sitting down around a giant Palestinian flag. This was an effort to block the motorcade route as biden heads to the US Capitol for the State of the Union address in Washington, D.C. The protesters are demanding a permanent ceasefire.
***
Many commentators have noted that biden’s SOTU was a call to move towards a civil war, by declaring essential legislative and regulatory war on half the country. It is a bleat that he has repeated many times over the past couple years. How will will it carry in the anti-2A base? They will expect the military of the police to do their fighting for them I imagine.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
U.S. Embassy in Russia alert: The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
NOTE - Exact nature of the threat is not known, but some speculation it may be associated with ISIS or similar islamic terrorist group. Based in part on a report that FSB exposed an ISIS cell, plotting attack on the synagogue in Moscow, several suspected killed in Kaluga region
Economy-
The tax plan announced by the Biden White House would charge U.S. corporations a higher tax rate than the rate corporations are charged in Communist China.
On Thursday, Biden’s tax plan was posted on the White House website, in the form of a “Fact Sheet,” which details the president’s goal of raising the corporate tax rate to 28%:
“Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and the corporate minimum tax to 21%. President Biden believes large corporations should pay their fair share, and is committed to reversing the massive tax giveaway to big corporations that Republicans enacted in 2017. President Biden would raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. He would also ensure that billion-dollar corporations pay at least 21% of their income in taxes, building on the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) corporate minimum tax.”
In response, Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) published an analysis explaining that, under Biden’s tax scheme, corporations would pay a higher rate (28%) than they’re charged in Communist China (21%).
What’s more, “Industry sectors of strategic use to the Chinese government pay an even lower rate of 15% or 10%” – and, once state corporate taxes are added in, the U.S. corporate tax rate would be around 32%, according to the analysis.
America’s workers would be hard hit by the tax hike, since they’d end up absorbing about a quarter of the additional burden, in the form of lower wage growth, ATR notes.
OBSERVATION - This tax proposal will go over like a lead balloon. If the republicans can fix the discussion on how it will raise the cost of living for the middle and lower class - biden’s oft repeated no one making under $400K will hit the rocks harder.
***
biden continues to claim it created 15 million jobs, a number. Recovering jobs lost to pandemic shutdowns is not job creation. Almost 22 million jobs were lost in April and May of 2020. Even CNN cried foul
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended that adults aged 65 and above get an additional dose of the updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine following a heated debate by an advisory panel on the issue.
***
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Tuesday introduced a bill that would allow Americans to sue the manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines for vaccine-related adverse events, including deaths by removing the vaccine makers’ liability shield.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The democrats have a serious problem with their base with last night’s interesting plot twist where leftist pro-hamas protestors blocked the main path from the WH to the capitol building - delaying the speech for nearly an hour was juicy. Just like Portland, the left is eating its progressive leadership to push matters even farther to the left.
Biden / Harris Watch –
I could only stomach some of the short SOTU clips this morning, having avoided the nightmarish meltdown in its entirety.
By all accounts, biden’s SOTU was a raging dumpster fire. From being over drugged to attacking Americans for not appreciating is wonderful ‘economy’ to unintelligent ramblings. I don’t have the time to address all but here are a few other comments and thoughts i’ve gleaned.-
Brandon threatened the SCOTUS. “With all due respect, Justices, Women are not without electrical power! Excuse me, electoral or political power. You’re about to realize just how much you’re...”
Tucker Carlson calls President Biden’s SOTU speech the most un-American speech in U.S. history.
“That was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech ever given by an American president. In fact, it wasn’t a speech, it was a rant, entirely lacking in decency or generosity to his fellow Americans.”
This is not a State of the Union speech. This is a war time address against half the country. This is a signal to crush political dissent.— Charlie Kirk
The optics appear to be that Pro-Hamas protestors get to block traffic with impunity and Gold Star parents are led away in handcuffs.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Several U.S. government websites went down for a short period as the SOTU started. The outages were minimal.
Other problems were noted on some of the contra-internet social sites.
Illegal Immigration –
This has been floating out there for a few days, but it has taken me that long to get around to looking at it more deeply.
Chinese gangs known as “Snakeheads” are working with Mexican cartels to smuggle illegals into the United States.
According to the Daily Mail, Chinese people are flying from China to Mexico and other central American cities and then meeting up with smugglers to lead them into the United States.
Former intel officer Todd Bensman says the Chinese migrants are very well coached by the Snakeheads and know exactly what to say to US officials.
“They’re so well coached and, we would get the same story from all of them, and not one variation,” Bensman said.
The Chinese have changed their tactics in Mexico. Previously, they specialized in drugs and money laundering. Now they specialize in human trafficking thanks to Biden.
“The Chinese just can’t go over there and cut the Mexican cartels out. That just doesn’t happen. They’ve got to be paying the Mexican cartel some kind of a percentage, quota or tax,” said cartel expert Robert Almonte.
OBSERVATION - For now they are cooperating with cartels. How soon before they start pushing them aside?
***
Carlos Obed Yepez-Bedoya, age 40, was apprehended at the Texas-Mexico border by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month. He is on the terror watchlist.
On February 21, just days before former President Trump visited Eagle Pass and President Biden went to Brownsville, Yepez-Bedoya was caught by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) crossing near Eagle Pass. He is a Colombian national. He was a “positive match” with the terror watchlist, according to an internal agency memo.
The memo said that he was flagged as a “group member,” which indicates he is associated with a terror organization. No specifics were given about which group he is suspected to have affiliation with. DPS arrested him and CBP picked him up.
The suspected terrorist was arrested thanks to Operation Lone Star. Texas uses the Texas National Guard and law enforcement to assist CBP in securing the border with Mexico.
OBSERVATION - How many other terrorists have gotten in that have not been stopped?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
U.S. Embassy in Russia alert: The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned France that Russia has “no more red lines” for the country.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned France that Russia has “no more red lines” for the country.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 37 Shahed drones overnight. Most targeted the Odesa region.
Russian Ministry of Defense says 4 drones were shot down over Kursk and Belgorod regions. 5 flights were delayed at Volgograd airport after Russian Ministry defense claimed 15 drones were shot down over the region
Ground action is still generally stable, with no significant Russian attacks or territory changes.
Outlook —
The Russian tactical ‘pause’ continues. How soon they will lumber back into more intensive offensive operations is not certain. With wet weather in bound, any delay will make forward movement much more difficult.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Ramadan truce unlikely as Hamas walks away from the bargaining table.
- biden threatens Israel with weapons denial if it proceeds to enter Rafah
- US to build a pier in Gaza to facilitate relief supply delivery.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
SOTU -
Biden: The only real solution is a two- state solution. I say this as a lifelong supporter of Israel. There is no other path that guarantees Israel’s security and democracy. There is no other path that guarantees peace between Israel & its Arab neighbors – including Saudi Arabia
Biden: We’ve been working non-stop to establish an immediate ceasefire that would last for at least 6 weeks. It would get the hostages home – ease the intolerable humanitarian crisis and build toward something more enduring
Biden: Israel has the right to eliminate Hamas
US to build a pier at a Gazan port to facilitate food and emergency supply delivery to
Gaza.
***
The Washington Post published a report Wednesday that the Biden Administration may limit arms transfers to Israel if it attacks the remaining four Hamas battalions in Rafah
***
“Iran has managed to join the humanitarian aid deliveries in Gaza. The Iranian Red Crescent has established shelters in southern and northern Gaza for Gazans, where food is distributed,” Israel’s Channel 11 reported, citing “documents coming out of Gaza in recent days.”
***
Israel will push on with its offensive against Hamas despite growing international pressure, including into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
***
IAF struck targets throughout Gaza overnight. These targets are likely pockets of Hamas et al that have been ID’d and cornered by IDF elements as part of their clearance operations.
Silence on matters of evacuating non-combatants out or Rafah, nor timeline for the commencement of operations. The action in Rafah has the potential of encountering most of the remaining hostages (dead and alive), so the tactical operations have to be finely tuned to minimize any casualties.
At this stage, it is uncertain how real biden’s threat to prohibit US weapon use in Rafah is. It does appear that Israel is ready to go it alone because if the 4 battalions of Hamas are permitted to survive - hamas will be able to reconstitute itself very quickly. It is essential to enter Rafah to finish the fight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Channel 13 reports that the IDF is preparing for a ground invasion against Hezbollah.
“The IDF’s Chief of Staff assigned Brigadier General Chiko Tamir, who formulated the plan to enter Gaza, the responsibility of preparing several possible plans for ground action in Lebanon on various scales - while drawing lessons from the fighting in the Gaza Strip.”
OBSERVATION- Israel has been preparing for war for years. It is understandable that reviews to tactics and objective are conducted using the most up to date intelligence and tactics observed. How soon? I still postulate Israel won’t initiate it until the fight over Rafah is finished.- several months.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Shin bet operatives killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist who promoted terror acts against the security forces in Silat al-Harithiya, located in the West Bank, the IDF stated on Friday.
The PIJ terrorist killed was Muhammad Adel Muhammad Shelvi. Shelvi was involved in promoting significant terrorist activity for the terror organization, including shooting attacks and explosive usage.
Additionally, nine wanted people from Judea and Samaria were arrested by the IDF throughout Thursday night. Those arrested were transferred for further investigation.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
In eastern Syria/Iraq, there have been no attacks in 32 days.
European Union: We are determined to defend our ships against attacks that undermine freedom of navigation
***
US defense officials have blamed “insufficient intelligence” for Washington’s abortive airstrike campaign against Yemen, which started in mid-January and has so far failed to deter Yemen’s Houthi armed forces from attacking US, UK, and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea in support of Palestine.
During a congressional hearing on US operations in the Red Sea last week, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for West Asia, Daniel B. Shapiro, revealed Washington “did not know” the full capacity of the Yemeni arsenal used for its operations in the Red Sea, adding that the White House was “working to gather that intelligence.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion
Israel continues to make preparations to enter Rafah, likely within the next couple weeks.
Tensions in the north will continue to escalate as Israel progressively takes out Hezbollah leadership and critical sites in S Lebanon in battlefield preparation strikes. Though war talk is on the rise, I don’t see anything sooner than the next few months - unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive attack.
Houthi continue to target shipping with impudence as US / Coalition forces struggle to locate and hit key facilities to cripple the anti-ship campaign. Calls of bad intel are common but there is a plethora of intel the Saudi’s have and should have been tapped. We have a lot of assets that can be used. The bottom line is the military’s hands are tied from really hitting the Houthi like they did the Iranian backed militias in Syria/Iraq.
Said it once, I’ll say it again - they only respect power not posturing.
hochul is leading the charge against the Kulaks.
OBSERVATION - Covert surveillance of the citizens of a nation is a huge red flag when it comes to the govt on the brink of going tyrannical. This is apparently just another method the regime has been using to compile data for its list of enemies. There is no doubt that this list will be used to target civilians when the regime decides to turn the corner and go full blown tyrannical. There is no other reason for the compilation of such data.
On 5th Columns:
Imagine 100,000 muslim jihadis here on H-1B, L-1, refugee and expired student visas working in power plants, fertilizer factories, refineries, chemical manufacturers, hospitals, utilities, dams, pharmaceutical formulators, web hub server farms, municipal water supply facilities, sewage treatment plants, meat packing and food processing plants, driving HazMat trucks...Feel free to update with Venezuelan felons, MS-13 gangs, Cartels, and any third world or communist country trained soldiers...Remember when the Vietcong took over Huế? They were able to round up every government official, march them all off into the jungle and kill every last one of them in one single night.
They knew exactly where they lived, who they visited, where they shopped and where they ate dinner, and when.
How you ask?
The cabbies had been providing the Vietcong daily reports on their every move for years in advance.
Soooo, where do most of the cabbies in your berg come from? In Washington DC, it's Somalia...
Just because we've forgotten the lessons of Huế and the lessons of the Sepoy Rebellion's "The Perfect Day" doesn't mean our enemies have.
Wiki seems mute on The Perfect Day. That information used to be readily available there. Now it's barely mentioned.
Source here
Sometimes it feels scary listening to Biden's hatred of half the American people... his hatred drips from his voice.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Lawmakers in Canada are considering legislation that, if passed, could criminalize quoting Scripture in defense of biblical marriage, sexuality, and other Christian views. Bill C-367 would repeal “religious exemption” in Section 319 of the Criminal Code, which critics say could open up Christians and other religious groups to “hate speech” charges over any comments or criticisms of the LGBT movement.
OBSERVATION - WEF/globlist goals are to silence fundamental Christian beliefs and subordinate under the developing globalist new religion. This is seen in many ways across the globe. Canada is leading the way with it new laws moving to essentially outlaw Christianity in total. Think our 1st Amendment will protect use here - guess again - as efforts are well underway to do similar here.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 10th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
An Aug 22, 2022 USAF memo from Gen C.Q Brown, now biden’s chair of the joint chiefs, directed the service to “develop a diversity and inclusion outreach plan aimed at achieving ‘set numerical quotas for the racial composition of officer applicant pools’. “
OBSERVTION - This is another step in the degrading of the military - moving from merit based promotions and assignments towards a DEI style system that threatens the high standards of leadership necessary for the modern military. Brown now is likely the process to push thru similar onto the other branches of the military.
***
The F-35A Lightning II, has been operationally certified to be equipped with B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs for the first time.
“The F-35A is the first 5th generation nuclear capable aircraft ever, and the first new platform (fighter or bomber) to achieve this status since the early 1990s. This F-35 Nuclear Certification effort culminates 10+ years of intense effort across the nuclear enterprise, which consists of 16 different government and industry stakeholders,” F-35 Joint Program Office spokesman Russ Goemaere told military blog Breaking Defense.
Goemaere said, “The F-35A achieved Nuclear Certification ahead of schedule, providing US and NATO with a critical capability that supports US extended deterrence commitments earlier than anticipated. ”
POLITICAL FRONT –
Ronna McDaniel officially resigned as RNC Chair, Michael Whatley and Lara Trump voted in as new Co-Chairs.
OBSERVATION - Lara Trump is there as a bone to MAGA elements because Whatley is another Bush era establishment republican. One will need to wait and see how quickly Trump will be maneuvered to the sidelines.
***
Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) delivered the Republican response to the State of the Union address Thursday night. She has received rather mixed reviews. Rumored reports that a much sharper response was desired and that Ramaswamy was the one wanted, but McConnell intervened and overruled, playing Britt in front of the camera.
***
The Senate on Friday approved a $460 billion package of spending bills in time to meet a midnight deadline for avoiding a shutdown of many key federal agencies, a vote that gets lawmakers about halfway home in wrapping up their appropriations work for the 2024 budget. The bill is ladened with billions in pork project earmarks by both parties.
RELATED -
House Republican lawmakers who advocate for reducing federal spending to bring down the budget deficit are defending the use of earmarks as Congress passes a spending package that include $13 billion of them.
“When Democrats are in control, if we don’t have the opportunity for our elected representatives to weigh in on these types of issues, then we’re sending our tax dollars to Washington, D.C. and bureaucrats are deciding where it goes,” said Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., during an interview with Just the News.
Rep. Burgess Owens, R-Utah, said he’s thankful for the earmarks process, which is now formally titled, “Community Project Funding,” noting that his “district was not being serviced at all” when earmarks were banned prior to 2021.
There were about 6,000 earmarks taking up 605 pages in the minibus spending package that passed. The package contains 6 appropriations bills.
OBSERVATION - Corruption runs across the board. Even the ‘conservatives’ are diving into the feed trough.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the two of them were headed for a “come to Jesus” meeting over the issue of getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to a video clip posted on Friday.
“I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting,” Biden said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “I’m on a hot mic here. Good. That’s good.”
OBSERVATION - He later denied the comment then went on to blame the ‘media’ for it. From a biblical standpoint, biden is playing with fire.
Illegal Immigration –
Senate Democrats just voted unanimously to defeat an amendment that would have stopped counting illegals for congressional seat apportionment and electoral college (presidential) votes.
OBSERVATION - It has been recognized that one of the goals of the democrat induced illegal tsunami was to eventually force an issue and get a blanket amnesty issued, an act that would likely generate nearly 10 million new democrat voters. A secondary effect was to continue the counting of illegals in the census for the purpose of congressional seat apportionment - tipping the scales into blue regions getting more seats. The resurgence of this effort comes at a time where in 2022, a major shift in legislative seats were made from blue regions to red - as a result of the Great Migration. Now , even if they can’t legally vote, the left is willing to use them to shift the balance of power anyway.
This will also be a contributor to CW2 anger in the coming years.
***
Two U.S. National Guard members and a Border Patrol agent were killed and a fourth person was injured when a helicopter went down near Rio Grande City, Texas, on Friday, officials said.
The UH-72 Lakota helicopter crashed around 2:50 p.m. local time while it was “conducting aviation operations” in the area, according to a statement from the Defense Department’s Joint Task Force North.
The helicopter had been assigned to a support mission at the Southwest border of the U.S., the statement said.
OBSERVATION - Some outer fringe websites reporting that it was taken down by a cartel manpads. Seriously doubt it. On the worrysome side, there have been a number of military helicopter accidents lately - and this coincides to an unusual number of civilian air incidents too.
***
The city of Denver is emailing property owners, asking them to house “newcomers” aka illegals over actual citizens. Denver is being overrun by illegals after Democrats made it a sanctuary city.
OBSERVATION - Denver is among a growing trend of leftist cities trying to get homeowners to house parts of the illegal population - unscreened and unsanitized. Many note that the next likely step is to mandate that homeowners house illegals - like it or not. As this progresses, I’m watching to see what levels of crime and the like start happening, and I’ll be the homeowners will be essentially powerless to remove undesirable tenants.
China –
Border conflict between nuclear powers China and India heats up. India announced a plan to add 10,000 troops to guard the shared border.
OBSERVATION - This still simmers from the ‘rock and stick’ battle of several years ago. China sees the territory it is claiming as essential to maintain a land bridge of sorts to Mongolia and other territories in the Himalayan mountains. India and China have grown more abrasive to each other as economic competition has increased as well.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow in the forecast..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 12 of 15 Shahed drones overnight. Kryvyi Rih, area was the recipient of most of these drones.
Russian Ministry of Defense says 3 drones were shot down over Volgograd region, 41 over Rostov region, 2 over Kursk region and 1 in Belgorod region.
Advances in Avdiivka area as well as continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact have been in progress.
Avdiivka -
Russia is attempting to push northwest of Avdiivka along a major highway towards Ocheretyne. These are reportedly confirmed advances
Outlook —
Russia has resumed operations along the Avdiivka axis as Ukraine struggles to reestablish a defensive line. Indicators are that Russia managed to push faster and farther than Ukraine had anticipated after the fall of the city, negating defensive lines to the city’s west and northwest. They are now struggling to establish new lines. This axis is also a recipient of Russia air support as evidenced by the number of jets shot down in the region earlier in the month. Russia for once has recognized the advantage they’ve gained and are attempting to exploit it.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Air drops of food continue, even though there have been some killed by standing under the pallets as they come down.
-Houthi launched large anti-ship drone attacks with up to 37 drones.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
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Biden at the SOTU- “I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting,”
***
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres once again caused an uproar on Friday, after he mentioned the sexual crimes committed by Hamas in its October 7 attack in Israel in the same breath as “reports of sexual violence against Palestinian detainees”.
The UN chief made the remarks in a speech he gave during an event on the occasion of International Women’s Day.
The crimes committed by Hamas were confirmed in a report released by UN Special Rapporteur Pramila Patten on Monday.
UN experts have accused IDF soldiers of raping Palestinian Arab women and girls in detention but have not provided evidence to back those claims.
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, said in response to Guterres’ comparison, “Today at the event to mark International Women’s Day at the United Nations, the Secretary-General once again openly demonstrated his bias and hatred against Israel.”
Ambassador Erdan added, “What kind of twisted conscience does the Secretary-General have to dare to compare evidence of sexual abuse, rape and war crimes that Israeli women went through on October 7 and that our hostages are still going through, and between false and unsubstantiated claims of physical searches of Palestinian women suspected of terrorism?”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-23/
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The U.S. military port that is intended to provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza is expected to take up to two months to construct and requires over 1,000 U.S. servicemembers to complete, the Pentagon said.
In a press conference on Friday, Press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters that that port would take at least 1,000 U.S. forces.
“We anticipate that it’ll take over 1,000 U.S. forces to participate in building this capability,” Ryder said.
“As far as time frame, several weeks, likely up to 60 days in order to deploy the forces and construct the causeway and the pier,” he said.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lower intensity exchanges of fire by both sides.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Palestinian gunmen set off an improvised explosive device near Israel Defense Forces troops in the West Bank town of Silat ad-Dhahr on Friday afternoon, wounding seven soldiers, the military and medics said.
The IDF said soldiers were carrying out “proactive activity” in the town when they came under attack.
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces in the village of Hajjah, east of Qalqilya
Confrontations broke out between rioters and security forces in the town of Osrin, south of Nablus
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s launched 15 drones according to the U.S. Navy with vessels and aircraft along with multiple coalition navy ships and aircraft shooting them down.
The Houthi claim they targeted American war destroyers in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden with 37 drones.
***
Thousands of supporters of Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists staged anti-American and anti-Israeli protests in Yemen on Friday, vowing that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts Sunday night, “is a month of jihad before it is a month of worship.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Peruvian police on Friday reported arresting two individuals – an Iranian and a Peruvian national – over alleged plans to attack an Israeli businessperson at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), scheduled later this year.
***
The Iranian national, Majid Azizi, 56, is reportedly a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is said to have obtained a Peruvian citizenship through marriage.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and destroy operations throughout Gaza as Hamas et al forces are destroyed in piecemeal fashion.
Be it 17 or 37, the latest drone attack by the Houthis is one of the largest to date. Until the US and coalition decide to get serious and bomb the living daylights out of Houthi positions and command, this will only go further south.
Trying to monitor indicators by either Hezbollah and Israel on the timing or immanency of a ground operation start by either element. Preemptive strike option by Hezbollah grows with Ramadan fervor. However, movement of ground forces by Hezbollah will be a challenge given the intense surveillance Israel has on the region. Israeli preparations will be a little more set piece as I expect to see Reserve call-ups prior.
Misc of Note –
There is considerable speculation across the inter webs as to just how the other shoe will drop here in the US before the elections. Everything from a massive false flag event that the regime can use to justify marital law, to terror/unconventional warfare by terror or national-based (i.e. Chinese) illegals (again with one goal to be disruptions of the elections), to actual war with Russia or China - and everything in between.
In the New Normal setting we find our selves in, many of these scenarios once were considered to be totally unreasonable now have become very possible. My most significant concerns in order are -
1 Illegals inciting violence, either by Chinese or Iranian/islamic elements or by just massive rioting by the unwashed throngs wanting more and more freebies.
2 Assassination of Trump and / or key govt individuals. Besides Trump, conservative USSC members and congressmembers, even governors.
3 Financial collapse - Not a high finance guru, I continually see a lot of behind the doors reporting on banking, the Fed and other aspects of the economy to know that much of what the MSM has put forth as economic good news is lipstick on a pig. Remember back to 2008, how quickly Lehman’s scandal knocked the legs out from under everything. Things can happen very quickly.
4 International conflict - Growing Israel - arab conflict soon to spread to Lebanon and even Iran. US being caught in it and having naval assets targeted and hit by Iran. Another danger zone is Taiwan and if China sees weakness, it will put the screws on to a level of at least a blockade of some form.
5 Items 1,2 and 3 above could trigger a much hotter CW2 scenario with local / state forces lethally engaging rioters or even fed forces.
6 Massive vote fraud / election theft - Don’t mistake this for being at #6 at this point. With many months left to go, the above items are poised to make an impact first, and this will rise accordingly the closer we get. Mixed into this are
- Martial law in response to the above
- Riots/protests if Trump manages to be reelected, approaching or meeting CW2 levels and standards
7 And finally, globalist maneuvering under the cover of global chaos to incrementally to rapidly implementing key goals such as digital ID, digital (programmable) money, global medical control, the whole sexual pervasion movement of the LGBT et al community with globalist blessing (now expanding from transgender to a full on push for acceptance of pedophilia) and other global money policies.
To say that the country is at its most dangerous time in history is an understatement. And to fully map out actions with secondary and tertiary impacts is massive, as any one of the above can and likely would trigger another on the list- generating a domino effect.
There are milestones I’m marking as the year progresses now.
- The restless summer - high probability of nation-wide protests/riots - and on what grievance (Gaza, Trump, etc)
- Party national conventions
- Israel -arab war phases
- Illegal immigration and associated crimes and terrorism’
- Fed decisions later this year.
As I conduct my OODA loops, these will become more and more refined. But the outlook is increasing gray - there is a storm coming.
I’m reviewing my preparations and increasing my spiritual readiness, food and ammo stockpiles. reviewing medical and comms readiness (going for my General Ham license). Paying closer attention to locals (leaders and general population) because even here in the Redoubt there are those who are questionable in their love of country.