Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

A far-left radical who has online posts suggesting support for Antifa extremism was outed by internet sleuths as a Secret Service agent. He deleted his account “endon40” after his identity and name was posted.

The Secret Service agent is a fan of Portland Antifa propagandist and disinfo influencer Robert Evans. He posts regularly on Evans’ subreddit. The agent says he feels dejected about the incoming Trump administration and would like to go work for the ACLU or SPLC.

One of the SPLC’s staffers in Atlanta is a suspect in a RICO and domestic terrorism case involving violent attacks by Antifa-linked extremists.

30- year-old Thomas Jack “J” Hamil - an 1811 employee for the Department of Homeland Security reportedly is the individual. He reportedly has about six years of experience and is in Phase 2 of his career is assigned to Vice President Kamala Harris’s protective detail.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1857561514338824420?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Democrat from North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel openly proposes a SHADOW CABINET.

He pleads with Democrats to challenge every lawful order and policy from Trump and his cabinet.

He even goes as far as to give a list of potential picks for a SHADOW CABINET:

•Senator-elect Adam Schiff, D-Calif. – Shadow Attorney General
•Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash. – Shadow Defense Secretary
•Rep. Suzan Delbene, D-Wash. – Shadow Commerce Secretary
•Rep. Rosa Delauro, D-Conn. – Shadow Health and Human Services Secretary
•Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn. – Education Secretary
•Rep. Gregory W. Meeks, D-N.Y. – Shadow Secretary of State
•Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo. – Shadow Treasury Secretary
•Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. – Shadow Veterans Affairs Secretary
•Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla. – Shadow Environmental Protection Agency administrator

OBSERVATION - These words are approaching insurrection levels. The course of some of his speech indicate that the leaders of the shadow positions will take the lead in opposing the respective portions of the Trump agenda in congress and in the public sphere of discourse.

The call for a shadow cabinet indicates that the core elements of the progressive left are not thru with their quest to retain power but willing to continue to burn it down if they can’t rule.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Pentagon has just failed its 7th audit and says it cannot account for what its $824B budget is spent on.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

Should be buzzing on the talk shows today with the recent picks for Trump’s cabinet on the agendas.

Fingers are now being pointed at pelosi in the dust down over who should be blamed for the election fiasco.

Biden / Harris Watch –

For the group photo at the APEC Summit, biden was relocated to the second tier country row - away from the prominent front and center positions common for a US president.

Illegal Immigration –

Rumors that human traffickers are attempting to move more illegals into the US before Trump takes over and they revenue source runs dry.

China –

President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Lima, Peru, during the APEC Summit. Biden raised concerns over Chinese support for Russia’s Military Activities, including aid from North Korea, and emphasized maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. He also criticized China’s actions in the South China Sea.

Xi also said he would ‘work’ with Trump.

Russia -

Logistics –

(ISW). Russian forces are innovating their long-range strike packages to include decoy Shahed drones and Shahed drones with thermobaric warheads, likely to confuse and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses and increase the damages of long-range strikes.

The Ukrainian military and electronics expert stated that the thermobaric drones, which Russian forces began fielding in Summer 2024, account for between three and five percent of the long-range strike drones Russia has been launching at Ukraine recently.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russian channels are currently reporting that a large-scale leadership purge is underway within Russia’s 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army.

Per reports, the command staff of the 3rd CAA has been fired, and the commanders of the 7th and 123rd Brigades have been arrested. Commanders were reportedly arrested due to “deceiving senior commanders in terms of taking lines that are in fact still under enemy control”

The 3rd CAA is primarily engaged in Donetsk and southern Luhansk Oblasts.

More reports coming in, appears that a massive purge of Russian army leadership is ongoing within the 3rd Combined Arms Army:

-3rd CAA commanding general fired
-Entire 3rd CAA command staff fired
-6th and 7th Brigade commanders arrested
-123rd Brigade commander on the run

OBSERVATION - May be RUMINT, however, Russia has conducted similar purges in the past.

Economic Impact –

The Biden administration is considering adding Russia’s Gazprombank to its sanctions list. As the 3rd largest bank in Russia, it plays a key role in gas settlements between Russia and Europe. The move, expected by the end of November, would prohibit Gazprom from any transactions with American banks.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1857853743942803746?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine, hitting the capital Kyiv as well as multiple targets in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lviv and Odesa regions.

Attacks were primarily aimed at energy infrastructure. Kryvyi Rih there was a serious hit to an energy infrastructure target. In the city, there are emergency shutdowns. Water and heat supply is broken.

Russia used its full range of assets in the attack -

- Russian Navy vessels launched Kaliber cruise missiles

- 15 Tu-95MS bombers noted airborne from Olenya and Engels airfields in Russia

- Tu-22 bombers released Kh-22 missiles

- Mig-31K aircraft launched Kinzhal missiles

The Ukrainian Air Force released official numbers from the massive Russian combined missile and drone attack last night and early morning.

Shot down:
1/1 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile
7/8 Kh-47M Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
85/101 Kalibr/Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
4/4 Kh-22/Kh-31P cruise/anti-radar missiles
5/5 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
42/90 Shahed drones and other types

As a result of active electronic warfare, another 41 drones were supressed and landed on Ukrainian territory. Two more flew back to Russia and/or occupied territories.

Russia continues to sustain very high personnel and equipment losses in combat Russian losses per 17/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1640 men
+12 tanks
+27 AFVs
+36 artillery systems

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russia continues to fail to make any significant gains in their counter offensive.

Russian Territory –

Ukraine drones reportedly hit Kupol plant in Izhevsk, producing missiles for air defense systems

Summary —

I almost hate being right in warning that Russia was soon to launch a missile/drone assault as done overnight. I do not think they are done either, as previous major attacks like this had several other waves of attacks before things settled down to a ‘normal’ attack range.

Ukraine’s power/heat grid was already in bad shape from last winter’s attacks. It doesn’t take much for follow on attacks to cause power and heat losses. For those of you unfamiliar with the heat loss component, many European cities have centralized heating system, with a large hot water boiler plant and underground piping taking the heated water to building throughout a district. Affected me when I was stationed in Germany.

High personnel and equipment losses continue with Russia eeking out small gains. Weather starting to turn and will further hamper offensive operations until temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground solid - but then those temperatures have other impacts on soldiers.

Poland –

Polish Air Force F-16s, along with other allied aircraft, were scrambled overnight in response to Russia’s missile attack on Ukraine.
The Polish air defense network was also ordered to the “highest state of readiness.”

Russian cruise missiles reportedly entered Lviv Oblast, bordering Poland.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu’s home attacked

- IDF makes gains in SW Lebanon.

- Questions over the health of Khamenei (see Iran below)

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Two flares were fired at Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea by progressive left protesters. The Prime Minister and his family were not there.

3 Suspects have been arrested by Israeli Police and Shin Bet agents for the attack .

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah confirms IDF ground and armored forces were spotted in the village of Shema, southern Lebanon, marking the first official acknowledgment.

The Lebanese army evacuated their brigade from Al Bayada, creating a path for the IDF to advance through Shaama (Shema).

Below is a link to a map that presents the approximate penetration of the IDF in the western area. Note yellow road that could provide a high speed axis of advance to the Med Sea

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GchsW24aMAULAUt.jpg

***
Israeli raid targets Baath Party office in downtown Beirut. S Beirut also faced another day of IAF air strikes targeting Hezbollah buildings and facilities.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Watching Iran for any confirmation of the health status of Khamenei. If he is incapacitated, then Iran’s way forward may be in for some significant changes. I don’t know if his son will continue his polices or start charting a new course. One aspect would be a change in the policy against the development of nuclear weapons - established by Fatwa by Khamenei. IRGC have prepared everything up to the final enrichment and design/construction of a warhead. Khamenei’s son may have more trust in nukes than Khamenei did in allah.

Hezbollah is losing critical ground in SW Lebanon (see link above) and its forces in that corner of the country are facing being cut off and defeated. Such a maneuver by Israel would permit them to attack Hezbollah defenses from the back side - a side never intended in being used for defense and open for exploitation.

Any reinforcements would be hard pressed to come to their aid because IDF would keep the pressure on other sectors of the front and would jump at any weakening of the Hezbollah units to rescue those trapped.

However, not guaranteed that his is what the IDF has planned - so developing.

In Gaza, Hamas and affiliated continue to be pressured by IDF in the north. If reports are correct, Israel is soon to be ready to declare N Gaza a military district and then direct its efforts towards the south.

The “Resistance” is still around and manage to pop off a few drones or missiles on a daily basis, but is not any really big threat. Rumors of the transfer of hundreds of rockets to Iraqi based militias are still floating around, but I think that any large scale use will bring Iraqi and US/coalitions attacks to bear.

Finally, the attack on Netanyahu’s home is a reflection of the Israeli leftists continued anger at the firing of Gallant from defense minister. 0bama and biden have supported the left over Netanyahu and caused considerable political chaos in the nation. The war effort has granted Netanyahu a great deal of support so the leftist rage is more concentrated in the hard core elements.

Iran –

RUMINT - Overnight significant rumors that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, at the age of 85, has fallen into a coma. Before doing so appointed his son to be his replacement (see below)

Later RUMINT out there is that Khamenei is dead.

OBSERVATION - Khamenei was rumored to have terminal cancer a couple of months or so ago. Tight secrecy of his health is likely to represent efforts to keep opposite in the dark and prevent potential protests/riots over his successor. If dead, much of the dynamics of the region may well be turned on their head.

RELATED -
Iran International television station reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the critically ill Ali Khamenei, will lead the country after his death and possibly even during his lifetime.
The report claims that Iran’s Assembly of Experts convened on September 26 for an unusual discussion conducted under complete secrecy, following the personal request of the Supreme Leader. The assembly included approximately 60 council members, who were urgently summoned without any prior warning.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399277

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Iran’s Foreign Minister: If they issue a resolution against Iran at the IAEA Board of Governors, we will reciprocate by implementing new measures in our nuclear program that will not be liked by them

***
Iran denies the WSJ claim and say revenge on Trump for killing Soleimani is NOT off the table

***
The Financial Times: Trump’s team plans to unveil a new ‘maximum pressure’ strategy designed to financially bankrupt Iran.

Heck of a way to start Monday. Yesterday, biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS against deep targets in Russia. Germany and Britain quickly followed suit with their stealthy cruise missiles. We could be on the brink of the use of nukes by Russia and WW3.
Now we will see if Putin was bluffing or not.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Scrutiny has intensified over the World Bank’s handling of climate funds, with a recent report by Oxfam revealing that between $24 billion and $41 billion in climate finance disbursed by the Bank over the past seven years remains unaccounted for.

This staggering amount, equivalent to nearly 40% of all climate funds disbursed by the Bank during this period, raises serious questions about transparency and accountability.

https://expose-news.com/2024/11/17/scrutiny-of-world-bank-intensifies/

OBSERVATION - This should come as a shock to no one. Globalist bureaucrats in charge skimming the money off to go into their pockets.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

A lot of rumblings yesterday as a group called Sedition Hunters on “X” began to delete their accounts and go dark. While many of these ‘hunters’ were anonymous, some openly operated. Their stated purpose was to identify and report J6 participants to the FBI for prosecution. Apparently for their efforts, the FBI paid them One hunter - Terry Metes “dumped her … FBI handler” and is concerned she won’t be paid on 220 “backlogged” J6er identifications ($55,000-$110,000).

Many see the disbanding of the ‘hunters’ as a move to protect their identification as Trump moves into the WH and has set a goal of defending the J6 participants. These “hunters” are nothing more than modern Stazi collaborators

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

Donald Trump’s MAGA faithful were outraged after it was leaked that Mitch McConnell hatched a plot to stall his Cabinet nominations in the Senate.
The backlash began after a now-deleted tweet from New Yorker staff writer Jane Mayer claimed McConnell told colleagues ‘there will be no recess appointments’ for the president-elect’s cabinet members.
‘Message to Trump Team: “There will be no recess appointments” Sen. Mitch McConnell said tonight at a Washington gathering,’ Mayer wrote on X at around 8 pm Sunday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14094959/MAGA-world-outraged-Mitch-McConnell-secret-plot-derail-Trump.html

OBSERVATION - The democrats are having a civil war of their own, but the establishment (RINOs) republicans are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Thus far, Thune has backed trumps’ nominees but as an underling to McConnell we may soon see just how sincere he is.

Biden / Harris Watch –

President Biden has given the OK to lift restrictions that will allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Sunday.

OBSERVATION - Less than 2 months left in his term and biden has been going into overdrive to get munitions to Ukraine and now this. NOTE Britain and Germany have followed suit with their cruise missiles. Question is will putin blink again. He has laid out many red lines that Ukraine has crossed, but this one seems to be pretty hard set. Use of any nuke by Russia will likely set up counter responses by the west.

Tied to this is Russia’s introduction of about 10K North Korean forces that maybe increasing by another 100K in the near future. This is one of the justifications used by biden et al for the freeing of ATACM use.

OBSERVATION - biden knows one of Trump’s key foreign policy efforts will be to end the war in Ukraine. Many can see that this as well as announcements to push as much aid as possible before Jan 20 as efforts to derail his promises to get fighting to end. But to actually push the envelope of potential nuclear war is way outside the envelope.

Illegal Immigration –

Word coming out that Trump has decided to declare a national emergency to facilitate the deportation of millions of illegals. This is not totally unexpected as he said as much during the campaign.

North/South Korea –

North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.

Russia -

*****

Kremlin’s spokesperson: The option of freezing the war in Ukraine along the line of control is unacceptable for Russia

NUCLEAR THREATS –

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the US has sparked a furious response in Russia.
“Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences,” declared the website of the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Monday morning.

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, head of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, predicted that the decision would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.

Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called it “an unprecedented step towards World War Three”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5l1220zxo

Warning from Sep 2024 -

Putin: “We will use NUCLEAR weapons if a mass enemy missile or UAV is launched towards Russia, or when these weapons cross into Russian territory”. This footage is from September 2024, warning Western countries against striking Russia directly.

OBSERVATION - Here is putin’s line in the sand that could trigger a nuclear response from a couple months ago when allowing Ukraine use of these weapons started to increase -

“A new nuclear doctrine would “clearly set the conditions for Russia to transition to using nuclear weapons,” he warned – and said such scenarios included conventional missile strikes against Moscow.

He said that Russia would consider such a “possibility” of using nuclear weapons if it detected the start of a massive launch of missiles, aircraft and drones into its territory, which presented a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.
He added: “It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”

RUMINT-

North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian regions, including the Moscow region, were under drone attacks overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it shot down 59 UAVs across various regions.

Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones. Substantially fewer numbers than previous.

Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
8/11 Shahed drones
3 more Shahed drones were suppressed by electronic warfare and were lost on Ukrainian territory.
Odesa was hit by ballistic missiles not noted above.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novooleksiivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukraine announces nationwide power ‘restrictions’ Monday after major Russian attack

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Minor gains along the line south of Pokrovsk.

Summary —

Escalation is the word for today. There is no reported requirement for US/British/ German target approval either. The area in Russia is target rich, some 100+ strategic sites from airfields, troop concentrations, command centers, etc. One target likely high on the list is the Kerch Bridge, once considered one of the forbidden ‘russian’ targets.

Contrary to Russian claims, these weapons systems are virtually untouchable by ADA systems. So they will be able to do considerable damage, though relatively few in number.

Russian response at this time may be measured against the targets Ukraine hits. They only really have two options - launch massive missile/drone attacks like a couple days ago with limited success and depletion of missiles - or use of tactical nukes, to minimize potential response from NATO. Even the relatively small tactical nukes could bring Ukraine to their knees quickly. That would cross a big red line by the west, and likely inject Poland into combat. The potential for escalation would increase exponentially.
Inversely, the prospects for peace will drop to nil.

Were Russia to initiate the nuclear option, the blow back on sanctions alone could set its already suffering economy into a black hole. Many analysts suggest that Russia’s economy does not have the depth to maintain the war effort thru next year. Nuclear exchanges would kick the legs out from underneath it.

Zelenski has made comments that the first deep strikes will happen some time this week and we may see Russia’s answer by the weekend.

Final, the pause in the drone / missile campaign may well represent post strike analysis that will lead up to another large strike in the next few days.

Europe / NATO General –

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday that the European Union is preparing new sanctions against Iran over its arms supply for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The EU is also looking at the issue of Chinese drone support, she said in Brussels ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hezbollah ‘favorable’ toward cease fire talks.

- Kicked out of Qatar, billionaire Hamas leaders move to Turkey.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he demanded an increase in the payment for returning hostages to $5 million per person. He also called for a reward system for any information, urging it to be widely publicized among Gaza residents.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Relative “quiet” across most of Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The newspaper Al-Akhbar reports that the IDF has taken control of the village of Shema and is advancing toward the town of Al-Bayada. Heavy battles are ongoing in the area.

The Israeli army installs an “artillery battery” in the town of Shamaa (Shema) , south of Lebanon. This is a first for having artillery stage in Lebanon and indicates support for deeper ground operations.

Link below depicts current status estimates on the IAF advance in SW Lebanon

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GcmMMYwXwAAMs-g.jpg

***
IAF continues to maintain a 100+ bombing attacks per day pace in Lebanon.

***
Israeli army: We detected about 30 rockets crossing from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted and the rest fell in open areas. Rockets were fired towards Nahariya area.

***
Lebanese TV network LBCI NEWS reported that Lebanon informed the Biden administration that Hezbollah gave a positive response to the ceasefire proposal. According to the report U.S. envoy will arrive in Beirut on Tuesday.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Sources associated with the Syrian opposition report that last night Israel attacked Hezbollah trucks in Syrian territory that were trying to enter Lebanon, near the “Al-Zamrani crossing” in the Al-Qalamoun area.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Hamas’s senior leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey, Israel’s Kan News public broadcaster reported on Sunday evening.
The report cited unnamed Israeli sources as confirming the move, which was said to have taken place in “recent days.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is rapidly pushing into SW Lebanon and the establishment of an artillery fire base in Lebanon for the first time is a key indicator of Israeli success.
IAF continues to destroy Hezbollah facilities in S Beirut, Tyre and Bekaa valley.

In Gaza, a pause before the next storm against Hamas.

The situation in Iran is clarifying regarding the health of Khamenei, lending some stability.

Interesting that the IRGC now emphasizing the security of its nuke sites versus attacking Israel. The potential for an Iranian missile attack against Israel continues to be present, but indicators are on a decline.

Iran –

Dispelling death rumors, Iranian state media released footage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meeting yesterday with Iran’s injured ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani.

***
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We have taken all defensive measures to protect our nuclear facilities in light of Israeli threats

***
A report in the New York Times: Iran’s leader Khamenei sent a message to Hezbollah at the end of the week through his advisor Ali Larijani that Tehran calls for agreeing to a ceasefire based on resolution 1701 and a withdrawal beyond the litany, and will continue to support Hezbollah and help it recover from the severe blows it has suffered

OBSERVATION - The devil is in the details. Iran/Hezbollah seem to be implying that they can once again work around the agreement just like the did with 1701 by intimidating and bullying the Lebanese and UN peace keepers to look the other way. Hezbollah will never agree to Israel’s demand to give the IDF freedom to strike terrorists and weapon shipments. The real key from this is the recognition that they are being beat and are seeking a way to get breathing space and rebuild.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A phrase associated with the globalists is that a great crisis is necessary for the world to accept their plans and leadership. Are we stepping into this crisis with the escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia?

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump on Monday confirmed reports that he is planning to declare a national emergency at the southern border in order to use the military to stop “the invasion.”

https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/18/trump-confirms-that-he-plans-to-declare-national-emergency-and-use-military-assets-to-stop-border-invasion/

OBSERVATION - This will be one of the biggest tripwires for domestic violence on the radar screen for 2025 and beyond. Radical leftists and Antifa are already preparing this to be one of their anchor points for violence. Numerous democrat governors have announced that they will attempt to prevent the govt from deporting their ‘citizens’, predominantly by refusing to allow state/local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE to even rumors of some more aggressive measures of protection. ACLU is mounting efforts to wage lawfare to stop the deportations. The pampered princes in the pentagon have been conspiring ways to disobey any Trump activation.

***
Currently, most of the leftist protests/rallies have a pro-hamas / anti -Israel focus. Nothing significant that could produce mass rioting.

***
MY OBSERVATIONS - The democrats are making nicey nice all of a sudden, while behind the scenes reorganizing their new resistance to Trump. Don’t trust them any further than you can throw them. Same too the RINOs who haven’t gotten the message of the American people.

biden’s OK for ATACMs use by Ukraine looks very much like he is trying to hand off a much more serious regional situation - making it more difficult for Trump to try to negotiate any kind of ceasefire and eventual peace treaty. An enlarged war in the region is a big problem by its self.
Second needing watching is any kind of economic resistance and trigger a recession/crash on his way out.

Third as noted above is violence surrounding deportation of illegals. This is the biggest violence scenario on the radar.

My antenna are fully up. It seems we are currently in the eye of the storm and brother the eye-wall is coming back with vengeance and we better be ready.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

The Georgia Court of Appeals has abruptly cancelled oral argument in the Fani Willis Trump RICO disqualification appeal.

https://x.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1858631501132558375

OBSERVATION - it is the belief by the author of the post above that the most likely reason is that the court is going forward with the evidence at hand - and not a good sign for Willis.

***
Pennsylvania Supreme Court slammed the counting of invalid ballots by Bucks County. Told them to immediately stop.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Reporters are shocked that World leaders at G20 took a group photo without Biden. World Leaders didn’t wait for him to get on stage and as Biden walked up they ALL WALKED OFF

Russia -

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree updating Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that Ukraine’s use of Western missiles could provoke a nuclear response. The revised doctrine underscores that any attack on Russia or its allies could lead to retaliation, with nuclear weapons seen as a deterrent reserved for threats to Russian sovereignty, including from conventional forces.

OBSERVATION - This update many see as lowering the threshold for Russian use of nukes.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Announced only yesterday, Ukraine apparently didn’t wait to use the ATACMS in their possession.

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk region. Initial reports suggested it was a drone attack, as residents reported hearing them. They may have been present as a decoy, but it appears ATACMS were used. Massive explosions and secondaries reported.

Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.

***
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 87 Shaheds launched, 51 were shot down and 30 more were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian forces made incremental gains along segments of the Donbas front. Evidence indicates Russian counterattacks in Kursk are failing.

Summary —

The strong likelihood that Ukraine has used ATACMs against sites in Russia is forcing a change in the status quo. Russia is in a difficult spot defending against their use because they have acknowledged receiving weapons systems from China, Iran and N Korea as well as growing numbers of ground troops from NK. Allowing greater use of systems like ATACMS as well as British/French cruise missiles is seen as a ‘natural’ response to Russia’s actions.

As I noted before, Russia has few choices now. Either follow through with its nuclear threat, find some conventional munitions means or blow smoke and rhetoric. It is too early in this new game period to conclusively say what putin’s next step will be. He’s backed down from previous threats, particularly after Ukraine hit Moscow with drones. There is a strong likelihood he will back back from nuclear component this as well. But I expect an attempt at a strong conventional attack on Ukraine. I really don’t think putin is ready for a scrum with NATO just yet.

A potential game changer for Ukraine will heavily depend upon them choosing the targets which gives them the most bang for their buck. Too early to see just how good their intel is in identifying targets and the timeliness of that intel.

Europe / NATO General –

Following Finnish media reports that an unexplained failure of an undersea telecommunications cable has disrupted communication services between Finland and Germany, Telia says that the communications cable between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged

The Russian spy ship “Yantar” was spotted operating drones near key underwater energy & internet infrastructure, raising suspicions about possible sabotage, according to the Guardian.

***
GEORGIA -
Police in Tbilisi dispersed protesters blocking a major intersection in the capital. The protest, which lasted over 30 hours, was the latest demonstration against widespread electoral fraud by the ruling Georgian Dream party

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Initial acceptance of a US proposal for a Lebanon cease fire by Hezbollah and Lebanon.

- IAF has nearly reached the Med Sea on its push in SW Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting on Monday that Israel will review its ability to act against Iran once the new U.S. administration takes over.
At the start of the discussion, the prime minister said that while the war is being waged on seven fronts, “It has one source — Iran … [whose] goal is the destruction of the State of Israel,” according to a Knesset readout.

Netanyahu clarified that the decision not to attack certain targets within the Islamic Republic hadn’t stemmed from U.S. pressure.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-iran/2024/11/19/id/1188587/

***
Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting.

Axios quoting Israeli officials: Intensifying raids on Beirut is to increase pressure on Hezbollah to accept the ceasefire agreement

***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he would reject any ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that requires a full IDF withdrawal.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Massive Hamas surrender in northern Gaza last night. In the dozens.

Yesterday, IDF fighters from the Givati Brigade’s Shaked Battalion eliminated approximately 40 terrorists attempting to flee the Jabaliya camp under the cover of rain and fog.

***
The continued looting of humanitarian aid trucks demonstrates that Hamas’ internal control remains limited and severely weakened. Armed men, likely part of criminal organizations, looted 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks that entered the southern Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border crossing on November 16.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: We monitored the launch of 170 rockets from southern Lebanon towards Israel today (Monday)

***
IDF continues to press into SW Lebanon.

IDF has pivoted west towards Al-Bayada and the coast of the Med Sea. Hezbollah attempting to counterattack IDF forces at Shama. .

The Israeli army captured the villages of Chamaa, Tayrharfa and Ulama al-Shaab in the Al-Naqoura axis. This widened the penetration towards Shama.

These three villages, especially Tayrharfa, played an important role in supporting the southern front, and according to the Israelis, they were the origin of many rocket attacks on Israeli settlements.

With the capture of these three villages, the likelihood of Hamul, Al-Naqourah, and Labuneh falling has increased.

***
Israeli jets launch airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold of Al-Khiyam in Lebanon, coinciding with artillery shelling targeting the area.

***
A medium range ballistic missile fired from Lebanon hit an arab suburb of Tel Aviv overnight. Rambam Hospital in Haifa reports that the number of wounded from a rocket that fell on the city of Shefa-Amr has risen to 30, including two serious injuries. Fragments of interceptors and intercepted missiles also caused some damage and minor injuries across the area as they fell to ground.

———WEST BANK——————————-

US State Department: We have made clear in the past that Israel must do more to curb settler violence in the West Bank

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The political office of the Palestinian terror group, Hamas, in Doha has not been permanently closed, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday.

Al-Ansari said leaders of the Hamas negotiating team were not in Doha.

This comes following reports that senior members of Hamas’s leadership outside of Gaza have been in Turkey in recent days, Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported on Sunday.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829808

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The threat of an attack by Israel on Iran for the attempted assassination of Netanyahu appears to have been pushed down the road to 2025. Same too for Iran’s declared retaliatory attack. The Trump factor affecting both sides, but far more negatively for Iran than Israel.

The probability of a missile strike by either side at this stage is decreasing. All bets come off again should things become unstable in US politics.

Iran’s precarious position of losing its Hamas arm and now on the edge of losing its biggest threat - Hezbollah - is behind their recent OK for Hezbollah to seek a ceasefire. The typical goal by these jihadi’s for these ceasefires is to permit them to regroup and rearm as quickly as possible and then resume the fight - of course, breaking the ceasefire in the process. Though Hezbollah has ‘agreed’ to some of the US plan, Israel is all too wise to the typical abuse of a ceasefire by Hezbollah and reserves the right to attack and interdict should the Lebanese army/govt fail to disarm and remove Hezbollah from the area south of the Litani River as well as prevent resupply from Syria and other sources.
To top it off, Israel has said it will continue its attacks during negotiations - no quarter.

The Israeli envelopment of SW Lebanon region is nearly complete. The maneuver has out flanked Hezbollah defensive lines will soon have a large element encircled.

Hamas has been having a very bad day in N Gaza. Dozens surrendered and some 40 caught in an Israeli ambush. With leadership status leaving Qatar leaving the fighters in limbo, only the diehards are increasingly left to fight.

ALERT.. ALERT..

Urgent alerts going out to the embassies in Kyiv - expecting a massive Russian attack
Developing.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

Protestors supporting Hamas in Gaza stormed the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday. The demonstrators, shouting “Free Palestine” and blowing whistles, marched about the building’s first-floor lobby in what was a chaotic scene.The demonstrators unfurled several large banners in front of the flat, black, brutalist sculpture meant to represent five mountains in the center of the Hart building’s lobby. The banners read “Fund Jobs. Not Genocide,” “Fund Education. Not Genocide,” and “Fund Healthcare. Not Genocide.”

It is unclear whether the U.S. Capitol Police made any arrests, though some protestors in the video of the scene appear to be resisting efforts by the officers to confiscate banners and signs.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/11/19/hamas-sympathizers-storm-us-senate-buildings/

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Pentagon: We have no indications of Russian preparations to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and we do not see a need to change our nuclear posture.

***
USS George Washington (CVN-73) will arrive in its new homeport of Yokosuka, Japan, on Friday, returning to the port almost nine years after being relieved as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier by USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) in 2015.

***
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has entered the U.S. 7th Fleet, leaving the Middle East without a carrier for just the second time in over a year, USNI News has learned.

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is currently in the Eastern Atlantic en route to the Mediterranean Sea. The carrier strike group will likely travel to U.S. Central Command as part of the continued merchant shipping protection mission Operation Prosperity Guardian.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

Sonny Hostin was forced to issue a “legal note” on The View that Matt Gaetz was found to have done nothing wrong after a three year DOJ investigation.

***
Despite reports that a state judge in New York has put the brakes on Donald Trump’s sentencing in the criminal hush-money case, court records show the sentencing as of now is still scheduled for Nov. 26, though whether the hearing will be held on that date remains to be seen.

Illegal Immigration –

The vicious Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua has expanded its territory to at least 16 US states — an area that includes half of America’s population, The Post has learned.
Homeland Security officials last week were warned in an internal department intelligence memo about TdA’s growing presence across the country, most recently in Washington, DC, Virginia, Montana and Wyoming.
The gang already has footholds in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin, according to the memo and previous reporting by The Post.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/19/us-news/tren-de-aragua-has-already-set-up-shop-in-these-16-states-homeland-security-warns/

OBSERVATION - Minor shock to see penetration into the American Redoubt state of Montana. We’ll see how resilient they are after a Montana winter. The article doesn’t specifically identify areas in the state they are congregating to, but Montana is likely a target in particular because of the indian reservations which are having human trafficking issues as well as substantial drug and alcohol related problems. Located strategically to the major reservations are Montana’ two largest cities - Billings and Great Falls - both beginning to suffer increased crime from gang and drug related issues. Montana is also on the main N - S route for meth and fentanyl going to Canada.
Rest assured, Montana will cooperate with ICE to clean these scum out of the state.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

A NSC spokesman says the White House is “not surprised by Russia’s announcement that it would update its nuclear doctrine; Russia had been signaling its intent to update its doctrine for several weeks. Observing no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture

Logistics –

Some Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles in recent strikes used old Soviet R-95-300 engines instead of standard Russian TRDD-50A engines.
These engines are no longer manufactured, and must have been old Soviet stocks or scavenged from disassembled Kh-55/55SM cruise missiles.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Several Embassies in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv, including the U.S. Embassy, announced earlier that they will be closed today due to a potential “Significant Air Attack” on November 20th; with Embassy Staff ordered to shelter in place, while american citizens in the city are told to immediately shelter following an air raid.

Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 56 strike drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles.

Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down 42 UAVs over the territories of the Bryansk, Smolensk, Moscow, Kursk, Oryol and Rostov regions, - Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
Drone hit a plant in Alexeyevka district in Belgorod.

Summary —

Watching to see if the reported impending large attack on Kyiv happens or not. In all likelihood the answer will be yes - Russia’s response to the use of ATACMs against it.

Brutal battles continue in the Donbas region. Little to no news coming out of Kursk.

Europe / NATO General –

Danish military confirms its naval ships are present in the area of Yi Peng 3, a Chinese ship suspected of deliberately destroying two underwater telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. Danish military is believed to have intercepted the Chinese ship. Reports are that the Yi Peng 3 has been detained.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Attempts by UN to force a Gaza ceasefire that will leave the hostages in control of Hamas.

- Floods from heavy rain likely impacting ground combat in S Lebanon and Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The UN Security Council will vote on a Gaza ceasefire resolution that does not mention the release of the hostages, with uncertainty over whether the US will use its veto power.

Notably, last June, the US supported a similar resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. However, Security Council resolutions are not binding, and remain declarative only.

In case of non-compliance from the parties, the Council has future authority to take binding measures, including imposing sanctions on Israel.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-829927

OBSERVATION - biden seems to be throwing bombs out of the window as he exits out of the WH. biden will likely support this resolution given the following related -
RELATED - he Biden-Harris administration on Monday unveiled sweeping new sanctions on Israeli Jews, just days after it awarded another $230 million in taxpayer funds to the Palestinians. The back-to-back announcements signal that diplomatic relations between Israel and the outgoing White House will continue to sour until President-elect Donald Trump retakes office next year.
The new sanctions are the broadest to date, imposing unprecedented punitive measures on three Israeli organizations the administration accuses of fomenting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. They were leveled just days after a coalition of nearly 90 congressional Democrats petitioned the Biden administration to ramp up sanctions on Israel before leaving the White House.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/
***
Record-breaking rains hit Israel on Tuesday, causing severe flooding in multiple regions, including Haifa. As the intense weather overwhelmed infrastructure, flash flood warnings were issued for the Judean Desert and the Dead Sea areas.
In Zikhron Ya’akov, an unprecedented 196 mm (7.72 inches) of rain fell within just four hours on Tuesday morning.

https://watchers.news/2024/11/20/israel-sets-a-new-all-time-rainfall-record-in-just-4-hours/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army is pushing towards Abel Al-Saqi. This is a developing new push on the eastern side of the border, moving northward. Possibly designed to pivot to the east to trap Hezbollah in the Hasbaya district of S Lebanon.

To the east, Israeli forces begin attempts to advance south of the town of Kafrchouba in southern Lebanon under cover of airstrikes and artillery shelling.

***
New leader of Hezbollah gave his first address today indicating that he is going to continue the fight no matter what.

***
Hezbollah has now rejected components of a ceasefire plan.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli raids target residential buildings in the city of Palmyra, and information about strikes that targeted a meeting of Iranian militias

Israel is reportedly ready to strike Iranian supply lines taking missiles to Iraqi militias.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Clashes ongoing between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

See Syria above, impending IAF strikes on Iranian militias.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to expand into S Lebanon, with Hezbollah only able to put up local resistance.

Conditions for Hamas continue to get worse in Gaza.

A new missile exchange between Iran and Israel is now low probability.

Turkey –

Turkey says it is ready to replace US / Coalition forces in eastern Syria if they are pulled out. This is not good news as these are predominantly Kurd homelands, and would open up new levels of violence by Turkey.

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