ALERT.. ALERT..
Urgent alerts going out to the embassies in Kyiv - expecting a massive Russian attack
Developing.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Protestors supporting Hamas in Gaza stormed the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday. The demonstrators, shouting “Free Palestine” and blowing whistles, marched about the building’s first-floor lobby in what was a chaotic scene.The demonstrators unfurled several large banners in front of the flat, black, brutalist sculpture meant to represent five mountains in the center of the Hart building’s lobby. The banners read “Fund Jobs. Not Genocide,” “Fund Education. Not Genocide,” and “Fund Healthcare. Not Genocide.”
It is unclear whether the U.S. Capitol Police made any arrests, though some protestors in the video of the scene appear to be resisting efforts by the officers to confiscate banners and signs.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/11/19/hamas-sympathizers-storm-us-senate-buildings/
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon: We have no indications of Russian preparations to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and we do not see a need to change our nuclear posture.
***
USS George Washington (CVN-73) will arrive in its new homeport of Yokosuka, Japan, on Friday, returning to the port almost nine years after being relieved as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier by USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) in 2015.
***
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has entered the U.S. 7th Fleet, leaving the Middle East without a carrier for just the second time in over a year, USNI News has learned.
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is currently in the Eastern Atlantic en route to the Mediterranean Sea. The carrier strike group will likely travel to U.S. Central Command as part of the continued merchant shipping protection mission Operation Prosperity Guardian.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Sonny Hostin was forced to issue a “legal note” on The View that Matt Gaetz was found to have done nothing wrong after a three year DOJ investigation.
***
Despite reports that a state judge in New York has put the brakes on Donald Trump’s sentencing in the criminal hush-money case, court records show the sentencing as of now is still scheduled for Nov. 26, though whether the hearing will be held on that date remains to be seen.
Illegal Immigration –
The vicious Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua has expanded its territory to at least 16 US states — an area that includes half of America’s population, The Post has learned.
Homeland Security officials last week were warned in an internal department intelligence memo about TdA’s growing presence across the country, most recently in Washington, DC, Virginia, Montana and Wyoming.
The gang already has footholds in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin, according to the memo and previous reporting by The Post.
OBSERVATION - Minor shock to see penetration into the American Redoubt state of Montana. We’ll see how resilient they are after a Montana winter. The article doesn’t specifically identify areas in the state they are congregating to, but Montana is likely a target in particular because of the indian reservations which are having human trafficking issues as well as substantial drug and alcohol related problems. Located strategically to the major reservations are Montana’ two largest cities - Billings and Great Falls - both beginning to suffer increased crime from gang and drug related issues. Montana is also on the main N - S route for meth and fentanyl going to Canada.
Rest assured, Montana will cooperate with ICE to clean these scum out of the state.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
A NSC spokesman says the White House is “not surprised by Russia’s announcement that it would update its nuclear doctrine; Russia had been signaling its intent to update its doctrine for several weeks. Observing no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture
Logistics –
Some Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles in recent strikes used old Soviet R-95-300 engines instead of standard Russian TRDD-50A engines.
These engines are no longer manufactured, and must have been old Soviet stocks or scavenged from disassembled Kh-55/55SM cruise missiles.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Several Embassies in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv, including the U.S. Embassy, announced earlier that they will be closed today due to a potential “Significant Air Attack” on November 20th; with Embassy Staff ordered to shelter in place, while american citizens in the city are told to immediately shelter following an air raid.
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 56 strike drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles.
Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down 42 UAVs over the territories of the Bryansk, Smolensk, Moscow, Kursk, Oryol and Rostov regions, - Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
Drone hit a plant in Alexeyevka district in Belgorod.
Summary —
Watching to see if the reported impending large attack on Kyiv happens or not. In all likelihood the answer will be yes - Russia’s response to the use of ATACMs against it.
Brutal battles continue in the Donbas region. Little to no news coming out of Kursk.
Europe / NATO General –
Danish military confirms its naval ships are present in the area of Yi Peng 3, a Chinese ship suspected of deliberately destroying two underwater telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. Danish military is believed to have intercepted the Chinese ship. Reports are that the Yi Peng 3 has been detained.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Attempts by UN to force a Gaza ceasefire that will leave the hostages in control of Hamas.
- Floods from heavy rain likely impacting ground combat in S Lebanon and Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The UN Security Council will vote on a Gaza ceasefire resolution that does not mention the release of the hostages, with uncertainty over whether the US will use its veto power.
Notably, last June, the US supported a similar resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. However, Security Council resolutions are not binding, and remain declarative only.
In case of non-compliance from the parties, the Council has future authority to take binding measures, including imposing sanctions on Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-829927
OBSERVATION - biden seems to be throwing bombs out of the window as he exits out of the WH. biden will likely support this resolution given the following related -
RELATED - he Biden-Harris administration on Monday unveiled sweeping new sanctions on Israeli Jews, just days after it awarded another $230 million in taxpayer funds to the Palestinians. The back-to-back announcements signal that diplomatic relations between Israel and the outgoing White House will continue to sour until President-elect Donald Trump retakes office next year.
The new sanctions are the broadest to date, imposing unprecedented punitive measures on three Israeli organizations the administration accuses of fomenting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. They were leveled just days after a coalition of nearly 90 congressional Democrats petitioned the Biden administration to ramp up sanctions on Israel before leaving the White House.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/
***
Record-breaking rains hit Israel on Tuesday, causing severe flooding in multiple regions, including Haifa. As the intense weather overwhelmed infrastructure, flash flood warnings were issued for the Judean Desert and the Dead Sea areas.
In Zikhron Ya’akov, an unprecedented 196 mm (7.72 inches) of rain fell within just four hours on Tuesday morning.
https://watchers.news/2024/11/20/israel-sets-a-new-all-time-rainfall-record-in-just-4-hours/
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army is pushing towards Abel Al-Saqi. This is a developing new push on the eastern side of the border, moving northward. Possibly designed to pivot to the east to trap Hezbollah in the Hasbaya district of S Lebanon.
To the east, Israeli forces begin attempts to advance south of the town of Kafrchouba in southern Lebanon under cover of airstrikes and artillery shelling.
***
New leader of Hezbollah gave his first address today indicating that he is going to continue the fight no matter what.
***
Hezbollah has now rejected components of a ceasefire plan.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raids target residential buildings in the city of Palmyra, and information about strikes that targeted a meeting of Iranian militias
Israel is reportedly ready to strike Iranian supply lines taking missiles to Iraqi militias.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes ongoing between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
See Syria above, impending IAF strikes on Iranian militias.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to expand into S Lebanon, with Hezbollah only able to put up local resistance.
Conditions for Hamas continue to get worse in Gaza.
A new missile exchange between Iran and Israel is now low probability.
Turkey –
Turkey says it is ready to replace US / Coalition forces in eastern Syria if they are pulled out. This is not good news as these are predominantly Kurd homelands, and would open up new levels of violence by Turkey.
I'm guessing the network didn't want to get sued so some stupid bimbo could make up lies about people she doesn't like.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And Putin? Possible a small tactical nuke taking out Kyiv or Ukraine's power grid. Not quite enough to start World War III, but close. A cat showing it has claws. Biden and his goons are nuts taking the world to the brink over a creepy corrupt nothing of a country. Ukraine launders money for elites - this is THEIR problem - the 'elites' problem - - NOT ours.
But God forbid American citizens should peacefully enter and walk around their own Capitol building.
ALERT ALERT
This popped up as I was preparing today’s post —
Air Raid Alerts now all across Ukraine, as some Channels are claiming that Russia has launched yet another Intermediate-Range/Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.
Developing
Air Raid Alerts now all across Ukraine, as some channels are claiming that Russia has launched yet another ICBM towards the country.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
A Florida man was arrested Wednesday and charged with a plot to “reboot” the U.S. government by planting a bomb at the New York Stock Exchange this week and detonating it with a remote-controlled device, according to the FBI.
Harun Abdul-Malik Yener, 30, of Coral Springs, Florida, was charged with attempt to use an explosive device to damage or destroy a building used in interstate commerce.
The FBI began investigating Yener in February based on a tip that he was storing “bombmaking schematics” in a storage unit. They found bomb-making sketches, many watches with timers, electronic circuit boards and other electronics that could be used for building explosive devices, according to the FBI. He had also searched online for things related to bomb-making since 2017, according to the FBI.
Yener also told undercover FBI agents that he wanted to detonate the bomb the week before Thanksgiving and that the stock exchange in lower Manhattan would be a popular site to target.
https://apnews.com/article/new-york-stock-exchange-attack-charge-0136576efbbfd327787f522eaf6857ae
Russia -
*****
Russia has used an ICBM in combat for the first time ever in the world.
Logistics –
In Russia, due to technical issues, half of the Airbus A320/A321neo fleet has been grounded. 34 planes are out of service, with some put into reserve to save engine resources. The issue lies in the problematic engines, which can’t be repaired locally or imported due to sanctions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Just in - Ukrainian OWA-UAV’s struck Russian 105th assembly and testing building at the site located at the Kapustin Yar Nuclear Missile Test site at Kapustin Yar Cosmodrome. It is believed that this strike was in response to Russian ICBM strike on Dnipro.
Air Raid Alerts now all across Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile attack early this morning.
Shot down:
6/7 Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal
They add that there are no significant damages or injuries.
The Ukrainian Air Force claims that an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched by Russia from the Astrakhan region. In the last few days, rumors were spreading about the possible launch of a RS-26 Rubezh. The Air Force itself shared no specific details. The missile struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro
The missile, which has never been used in combat before, was launched from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, it added.
Ukraine’s military did not specify if the attack caused any damage.
The solid fuel RS-26 Rubezh has a range of up to 6,000 km, however, the flight to Ukraine was only about 600 KM
Its warhead can carry four MIRVs with a total capacity of 1.2 megatons.
The accuracy of this missile is 90m-250m CEP and for conventional strikes absolutely inaccurate,
Damage assessment is still ongoing. The missile apparently was equipped with dummy warheads - not even conventional explosives - so any damage will be from impacts. It is unlikely that Russian has fitted these ICBMs with a ‘tactical’ low yield warhead. Russia currently has numerous delivery systems for a tactical nuke that they are using conventional warheads with.
***
The U.S. Embassy in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv will return to normal operations tomorrow, after it was closed on Tuesday due to fears of a major Russian missile attack against the city; with Ukrainian Intelligence claiming earlier today that the reports of an imminent large-scale attack, were a Psychological-Warfare Operation by Russia.
NOTE - Apparently the alert was based on the preparations by Russia to fire an ICBM at Ukraine
***
Ukraine drones attacked an industrial enterprise in Kostantinovsk district of Rostov region, Russia, causing fires, - according to governor
***
Russian losses per 21/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1510 men
+8 tanks
+24 AFVs
+50 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces pushing south of Pokrovsk along three lines of attack, penetrating into Ukraine defenses.
Russian Territory –
British made cruise missiles hit the command post in Maryino of Kursk region.
Summary —
Not only is this the first use of an ICBM against Ukraine, it is the FIRST combat use ever. Absent conventional warheads, this attack was to send a message to NATO over the deep strike authorization for ATACMS and British/French cruise missiles - don’t.
Their targeting is designed for nuclear weapons, so pinpoint accuracy is not necessary. Their sole other purpose at this stage is terror.
Impact of debris is what they have and it can do some damage, but it is indiscriminate in what it hits.
Launch site places the missiles on a different transjectory than most of the common cruise and drone attacks, likely finding a hole in the ADA coverage. However, with only Patriot systems, and no THADS the warheads will easily penetrate.
This is a escalation in the situation. It is unlikely that Russia will use strategic level nukes (in the mega ton range) in this war as smaller, tactical nukes (kiloton range) would be more suitable.
I lean towards a scenario where IF Russia explodes a warhead, it would be exoatmospheric over Ukraine / Europe to avoid any blast damage. However, if it generates and EMP that damages the electronics in the west, such an act would be seen as open war.
For now the weapons escalation is front and center to the war. On the ground, Russia is still grinding out small gains in the Donbas region with continued elevated losses.
Belarus -
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told the BBC a few weeks ago that Putin might supply the Houthis with “Bastion” anti-ship missiles if Western countries authorize Ukraine to strike Russian territory with their own missiles.
Europe / NATO General –
A Danish Navy vessel boarded the Chinese cargo vessel Yi Ping after it was discovered it had destroyed 2 undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea.
Denmark exercised the right under Art. X of the Submarine Cables Convention. It’s been done only once before, by the USA in 1959
“Chinese-flagged bulk carrier MV Yi Peng 3 appears to have deliberately dragged anchor to break two underwater telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea.”
The vessel sailed from Russia & the captain is Russian
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
- Ceasefire negotiations continue between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel. Both sides have some pretty hardened demands that may not be met by the other.
- biden institutes an new shipment delay of bombs
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The UN Security Council vote on a Gaza ceasefire resolution was vetoed by the US because it failed to address the hostage release.
***
The Biden Administration has decided to delay the shipment of approximately 20,000 MK84 bombs, even as Israel is at its peak in the war against Hezbollah and Hamas. These bombs are crucial to the Israeli Air Force’s aerial weaponry arsenal.
***
ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli leaders Netanyahu and Gallant for alleged Gaza war crimes, and Hamas leader Al-Masri, says reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant committed crimes, Israel acceptance of court’s jurisdiction is not required
Gantz: Hague court ruling is ‘moral blindness and historical disgrace’ that will never be forgotten
***
Lebanon ceasefire update: Senior officials in Israel say that if an agreement is reached on the last subject in dispute, we will have a ceasefire within a week.
Israel is cautiously optimistic on the eve of Hochstein and Dermer’s meeting tonight.
The two main issues are The Israeli freedom of action in Lebanon in the event of a violation and the composition of the supervisory committee in Lebanon.
As far as Israel is concerned, freedom of action in Lebanon is a red line. It is not clear whether it must appear in the agreement with Lebanon or whether their agreement will require the US to grant a party document backing up such an action.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Relatively quiet - possibly due to affects from a record breaking rainstorm that hit the area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah neighborhoods in S Beirut continue to be leveled. Israel has also issued a large evacuation alert for nearly all the suburbs around Tyre.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF hit Palmyra, Syria yesterday. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, reported Thursday that at least 68 people were killed and 50 injured. Among the dead were 42 Syrians linked to pro-Iranian militias, 22 foreign nationals—primarily members of the Iraqi pro-Iranian Nujaba militia—and four Hezbollah operatives.
According to the watchdog, the strikes hit three separate locations in Palmyra, including two in the Al-Jam’iya neighborhood, one of which was a weapons depot near an industrial zone. The third site allegedly hosted a meeting of pro-Iranian militia leaders, including senior figures from the Iraqi Nujaba militia and Hezbollah. Families of pro-Iranian operatives, many with Iraqi or foreign citizenship, reportedly reside in the affected area.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkirluhzyl
The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemns Israeli airstrikes on Palmyra, reporting civilian casualties and material damage in central Syria
***
Rumint. Report from Iraq: Dozens of Iranian trucks entered Iraq loaded with long- and medium-range ballistic missiles, under the auspices of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and with the flag of Sudan
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi fighters fired ballistic and cruise missiles targeting a cargo ship in the Red Sea on November 19.
RUMINT - Putin might supply the Houthis with “Bastion” anti-ship missiles.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
A lot of effort to try to get a ceasefire in Lebanon before biden leaves office. Though both sides are talking, it is doubtful that Israel will accept anything less than the total removal of Hezbollah from S Lebanon and a complete blockade of any effort to resupply them. Hezbollah will not accept any Israeli option to continue to interdict Iranian/Hezbollah resupply efforts as well as respond to any attacks, with freedom to operation in the north.
The biden bomb slowdown will bite Israel in a longer term, however, with Hamas nearly out for the count and tactical / stratigic operations in Lebanon at a stead pace not needing any surge, Israel probably has the stock to hold out until Trump takes over.
Iran / Israel appears calm for now.
A serious destabilizing move being contemplated by putin to supply the houthi with advanced anti ship weaponry could cause an expansion of the war in that sector and open up Russian forces/elements to Israeli attack.
Iraq -
The Iraqi federal government is trying to prevent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks on Israel in order to prevent Israeli strikes on Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi attacks on Israel increased by almost 150 percent between September and October 2024.