Replies

Air Raid Alerts now all across Ukraine, as some channels are claiming that Russia has launched yet another ICBM towards the country.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024

A Florida man was arrested Wednesday and charged with a plot to “reboot” the U.S. government by planting a bomb at the New York Stock Exchange this week and detonating it with a remote-controlled device, according to the FBI.
Harun Abdul-Malik Yener, 30, of Coral Springs, Florida, was charged with attempt to use an explosive device to damage or destroy a building used in interstate commerce.

The FBI began investigating Yener in February based on a tip that he was storing “bombmaking schematics” in a storage unit. They found bomb-making sketches, many watches with timers, electronic circuit boards and other electronics that could be used for building explosive devices, according to the FBI. He had also searched online for things related to bomb-making since 2017, according to the FBI.

Yener also told undercover FBI agents that he wanted to detonate the bomb the week before Thanksgiving and that the stock exchange in lower Manhattan would be a popular site to target.

https://apnews.com/article/new-york-stock-exchange-attack-charge-0136576efbbfd327787f522eaf6857ae

Russia -

*****
Russia has used an ICBM in combat for the first time ever in the world.

Logistics –

In Russia, due to technical issues, half of the Airbus A320/A321neo fleet has been grounded. 34 planes are out of service, with some put into reserve to save engine resources. The issue lies in the problematic engines, which can’t be repaired locally or imported due to sanctions.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Just in - Ukrainian OWA-UAV’s struck Russian 105th assembly and testing building at the site located at the Kapustin Yar Nuclear Missile Test site at Kapustin Yar Cosmodrome. It is believed that this strike was in response to Russian ICBM strike on Dnipro.

Air Raid Alerts now all across Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile attack early this morning.
Shot down:
6/7 Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal
They add that there are no significant damages or injuries.

The Ukrainian Air Force claims that an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched by Russia from the Astrakhan region. In the last few days, rumors were spreading about the possible launch of a RS-26 Rubezh. The Air Force itself shared no specific details. The missile struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro

The missile, which has never been used in combat before, was launched from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, it added.
Ukraine’s military did not specify if the attack caused any damage.

The solid fuel RS-26 Rubezh has a range of up to 6,000 km, however, the flight to Ukraine was only about 600 KM

Its warhead can carry four MIRVs with a total capacity of 1.2 megatons.

The accuracy of this missile is 90m-250m CEP and for conventional strikes absolutely inaccurate,

Damage assessment is still ongoing. The missile apparently was equipped with dummy warheads - not even conventional explosives - so any damage will be from impacts. It is unlikely that Russian has fitted these ICBMs with a ‘tactical’ low yield warhead. Russia currently has numerous delivery systems for a tactical nuke that they are using conventional warheads with.

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The U.S. Embassy in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv will return to normal operations tomorrow, after it was closed on Tuesday due to fears of a major Russian missile attack against the city; with Ukrainian Intelligence claiming earlier today that the reports of an imminent large-scale attack, were a Psychological-Warfare Operation by Russia.
NOTE - Apparently the alert was based on the preparations by Russia to fire an ICBM at Ukraine

***
Ukraine drones attacked an industrial enterprise in Kostantinovsk district of Rostov region, Russia, causing fires, - according to governor

***
Russian losses per 21/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1510 men
+8 tanks
+24 AFVs
+50 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces pushing south of Pokrovsk along three lines of attack, penetrating into Ukraine defenses.

Russian Territory –

British made cruise missiles hit the command post in Maryino of Kursk region.

Summary —

Not only is this the first use of an ICBM against Ukraine, it is the FIRST combat use ever. Absent conventional warheads, this attack was to send a message to NATO over the deep strike authorization for ATACMS and British/French cruise missiles - don’t.

Their targeting is designed for nuclear weapons, so pinpoint accuracy is not necessary. Their sole other purpose at this stage is terror.
Impact of debris is what they have and it can do some damage, but it is indiscriminate in what it hits.

Launch site places the missiles on a different transjectory than most of the common cruise and drone attacks, likely finding a hole in the ADA coverage. However, with only Patriot systems, and no THADS the warheads will easily penetrate.

This is a escalation in the situation. It is unlikely that Russia will use strategic level nukes (in the mega ton range) in this war as smaller, tactical nukes (kiloton range) would be more suitable.

I lean towards a scenario where IF Russia explodes a warhead, it would be exoatmospheric over Ukraine / Europe to avoid any blast damage. However, if it generates and EMP that damages the electronics in the west, such an act would be seen as open war.

For now the weapons escalation is front and center to the war. On the ground, Russia is still grinding out small gains in the Donbas region with continued elevated losses.

Belarus -

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told the BBC a few weeks ago that Putin might supply the Houthis with “Bastion” anti-ship missiles if Western countries authorize Ukraine to strike Russian territory with their own missiles.

Europe / NATO General –

A Danish Navy vessel boarded the Chinese cargo vessel Yi Ping after it was discovered it had destroyed 2 undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea.

Denmark exercised the right under Art. X of the Submarine Cables Convention. It’s been done only once before, by the USA in 1959

“Chinese-flagged bulk carrier MV Yi Peng 3 appears to have deliberately dragged anchor to break two underwater telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea.”

The vessel sailed from Russia & the captain is Russian

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

- Ceasefire negotiations continue between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel. Both sides have some pretty hardened demands that may not be met by the other.

- biden institutes an new shipment delay of bombs

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The UN Security Council vote on a Gaza ceasefire resolution was vetoed by the US because it failed to address the hostage release.

***
The Biden Administration has decided to delay the shipment of approximately 20,000 MK84 bombs, even as Israel is at its peak in the war against Hezbollah and Hamas. These bombs are crucial to the Israeli Air Force’s aerial weaponry arsenal.

***
ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli leaders Netanyahu and Gallant for alleged Gaza war crimes, and Hamas leader Al-Masri, says reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant committed crimes, Israel acceptance of court’s jurisdiction is not required

Gantz: Hague court ruling is ‘moral blindness and historical disgrace’ that will never be forgotten

***
Lebanon ceasefire update: Senior officials in Israel say that if an agreement is reached on the last subject in dispute, we will have a ceasefire within a week.

Israel is cautiously optimistic on the eve of Hochstein and Dermer’s meeting tonight.

The two main issues are The Israeli freedom of action in Lebanon in the event of a violation and the composition of the supervisory committee in Lebanon.

As far as Israel is concerned, freedom of action in Lebanon is a red line. It is not clear whether it must appear in the agreement with Lebanon or whether their agreement will require the US to grant a party document backing up such an action.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Relatively quiet - possibly due to affects from a record breaking rainstorm that hit the area.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah neighborhoods in S Beirut continue to be leveled. Israel has also issued a large evacuation alert for nearly all the suburbs around Tyre.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IAF hit Palmyra, Syria yesterday. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, reported Thursday that at least 68 people were killed and 50 injured. Among the dead were 42 Syrians linked to pro-Iranian militias, 22 foreign nationals—primarily members of the Iraqi pro-Iranian Nujaba militia—and four Hezbollah operatives.

According to the watchdog, the strikes hit three separate locations in Palmyra, including two in the Al-Jam’iya neighborhood, one of which was a weapons depot near an industrial zone. The third site allegedly hosted a meeting of pro-Iranian militia leaders, including senior figures from the Iraqi Nujaba militia and Hezbollah. Families of pro-Iranian operatives, many with Iraqi or foreign citizenship, reportedly reside in the affected area.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkirluhzyl

The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemns Israeli airstrikes on Palmyra, reporting civilian casualties and material damage in central Syria

***
Rumint. Report from Iraq: Dozens of Iranian trucks entered Iraq loaded with long- and medium-range ballistic missiles, under the auspices of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and with the flag of Sudan

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi fighters fired ballistic and cruise missiles targeting a cargo ship in the Red Sea on November 19.

RUMINT - Putin might supply the Houthis with “Bastion” anti-ship missiles.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

A lot of effort to try to get a ceasefire in Lebanon before biden leaves office. Though both sides are talking, it is doubtful that Israel will accept anything less than the total removal of Hezbollah from S Lebanon and a complete blockade of any effort to resupply them. Hezbollah will not accept any Israeli option to continue to interdict Iranian/Hezbollah resupply efforts as well as respond to any attacks, with freedom to operation in the north.

The biden bomb slowdown will bite Israel in a longer term, however, with Hamas nearly out for the count and tactical / stratigic operations in Lebanon at a stead pace not needing any surge, Israel probably has the stock to hold out until Trump takes over.

Iran / Israel appears calm for now.

A serious destabilizing move being contemplated by putin to supply the houthi with advanced anti ship weaponry could cause an expansion of the war in that sector and open up Russian forces/elements to Israeli attack.

Iraq -

The Iraqi federal government is trying to prevent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks on Israel in order to prevent Israeli strikes on Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi attacks on Israel increased by almost 150 percent between September and October 2024.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Though on the surface appearing to target only Israel, the recent decision to send warrants out for the arrest of Netanyahu and Gantz by the ICC is evidence of this legal arm of the globalists trying to push their way out of their box. In doing so, many nations are now clearly picking sides - pro and anti israel. The prosecutor is a radical moslem under sexual assault/rape charges, to deflecting to Israel is a natural.

The bottom line is this is the kind of kangaroo courts we can expect from a world ruled by the globalists.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

The Democrat Mayor of Denver, Colorado Mike Johnston has challenged Trump to try to deport any illegal migrants from his city, saying he would deploy the Denver City Police and volunteers from the local community to use force against federal forces trying to deport illegals.

“More than us having DPD stationed at the county line to keep them out, you would have 50,000 Denverites there. It’s like the Tiananmen Square moment with the rose and the gun... You’d have every one of those Highland moms who came out for the migrants. You don’t want to mess with them.”

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859445390342246474

OBSERVATION - This is the most radical announcement of the effort to prevent deportations of illegals. This is the first to openly say they will deploy local police to oppose federal agents - an act that implies the application of lethal force. Pause and think of that - using force against federal officials. We will see what happens when the time comes, but this is the cutting edge of a nasty new trend coming out the sanctuary movement.

Additionally, Antifa has a growing presence in Denver as well. You can bet that given the chance to ‘smash the facists’ violence would grow very quickly. 2025 is building out to be a very dangerous year.

***
This weekend brings a mix of pro-palestinian and pro-trans protests. Probably of significant violence is low, though there may be some local vandalism and other crime that spins off. Violence may be directed at any passers by they consider to be opposing their views. Best to avoid these areas - be situationally alert in metro areas where these protests commonly occur.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.84%, the highest level since July, from 6.785% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.29% during the same period a year ago.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/30-year-mortgage-7/2024/11/22/id/1189057/

OBSERVATION - Fed rate drops have done very little for homebuyers. Even at a 6.84% (which only those with good credit ratings can get) most homes remain out of reach to those looking to buy.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th ?????

FBI Director & DHS Secretary refused to testify at annual hearing on threats to the nation.
RELATED - RUMINT. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is reportedly negotiating his exit and wants to leave immune from any potential investigations from the Trump Administration.

OBSERVATION - Wray and Mayorkas both know there will be no blowback other than verbal rantings by congress over their refusal to openly testify as they have done every other year.
Mayorkas knows is rear end is flapping in the breeze and I don’t think any deal will be done as Trump will overrule any DoJ plea bargain/arrangement.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Both harris and biden have effectively dropped off the radar.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 over potential sanctuary movement violence against mass deportations.

Continued rumors of illegals massing to get across the border before Trump comes in.

TDA threats continue to develop in 16 states as earlier noted this week.

North/South Korea –

During a Defense Expo yesterday in Pyongyang, North Korean Supreme-Leader Kim Jong Un accused the United States of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, claiming that the world is at its highest risk ever of thermonuclear war.

OBSERVATION - Kim may well be prompted in part with his rhetoric by Russia as part of the growing agreements and relationship. Stir up trouble in a whole other sector to divert US from its support of Ukraine.

***
Rumors that Russia has supplied NK with some advanced ADA systems in exchange for sending troops to fight against Ukraine.

Russia -

*****
Russia struck Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro city with a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile Oreshnik, - Putin said.

According to a U.S. Official who spoke to ABC News; the Russian ballistic missile attack against Dnipro in Central Ukraine, did not involve an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) as being claimed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but instead an “Experimental”Medium-Range Ballistic Missile equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV).

The Pentagon has identified the Russian Medium-Range Ballistic Missile that was fired last night against the City of Dnipro in Central Ukraine, as an RS-26 “Rubezh” Road-Mobile Ballistic Missile which was equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry-Vehicle (MIRV) Payload containing 6 warheads (believed to be either conventional or nuclear).

The United States was pre-notified by Russia shortly before its strike with an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile on Ukraine’s city of Dnipro through nuclear risk reduction channels, a U.S. official said on Thursday. Now Kremlin spokesperson says Russia had notified U.S. 30 minutes before launch

OBSERVATION - Observers and OSINT review indicate that these warheads were either inert (dummy) or had minimal explosives. Most of the damage appears to be due to impact, not explosions.
Additionally, the hyperbolic claims of hypersonic warheads is a propaganda fear term. Technically, all ballistic missile warheads are hypersonic. What modern military hypersonic’s address are warheads that are capable of maneuvering at those speeds to defeat ADA systems.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian facilities – Putin

OBSERVATION - Some additional inference to Poland and the Baltic States as potential first round targets, beside US, Britain and France.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 23 UAVs over the Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk regions — Russian Defense Ministry.

***
Explosion was reported in Dnipro city. Ballistic missile strike.

***
Dep Pentagon PressSec: Russia’s intermediate-range ballistic missile was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model. The United States was pre-notified briefly before the launch through Nuclear Risk Reduction channels

***
Yesterday, Russian Channels reported that the strike by the Ukrainian Air Force, using at least 10 “Storm Shadow” Air-Launched Cruise Missiles, against an underground, fortified-command center in the Kursk Region; resulted in the death of 18 Russian officers, including a senior sommander, as well as 3 North Korean officers. In addition, a dozen other soldiers and officers were wounded in the attack, including one of North Korea’s most senior generals.

***
(ISW). Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Vuhledar. Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kreminna, southeast of Chasiv Yar, in Toretsk, southeast of Kurakhove, northeast of Vuhledar, and likely advanced northeast of Velyka Novosilka.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

(ISW). Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Sudzha.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novodmytrivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Russian Territory –

Krasnodar, Russia— Ukraine reportedly attacked Russia using NATO-supplied long range missiles. An airfield and associated elements were reportedly hit with parts of the city have been burning for hours

Summary —

Tensions continue to ratchet up as Ukraine launches another deep strike into Russia and Russia openly threatens western nations with punitive strikes. Even a conventional strike on a NATO country would trigger Art 5 responses, no need for a nuke. putin must be banking that his threats will lessen western support for Ukraine’s new deep strike authorization. He may also be thinking that even if he escalates by actually attacking NATO, they would be more afraid to commit to a war. OTOH, putin can hardly sustain the influx of new military forces into eastern Ukraine where his units are already strained with the push to capture the Donbas region and retake Kursk. With the influx of NATO would bring air power with capabilities to offset Russian ADA and provide air domination.

This is a dangerous game of chicken being played out with peak intensity prior to Trump’s return to the WH. He may inherit a full out regional war.

As noted above, Russia continued to claw terrain away from Ukraine. Monthly losses continue to range more than 30% higher (40K - 50K vs 30K) than earlier this summer and is putting a strain on Russia’s ability to supply replacements. The influx of NK forces could help but they are behind the power curve getting up to speed for this kind of war.

Ukraine is facing its own manpower shortages, suffering losses, though substantially lower than Russia but with a much smaller pool to recruit from.

Use of this “new” missile system for tactical / intermediate strategic strikes against Ukraine will likely be limited. Construction of modification of existing intermediate ICBMs for conventional attacks will be very costly. Their use, should putin continue, will be more of a terror weapon against Ukraine. They will also serve as a threat to all of Europe, given the 5000 Km range.

Europe / NATO General –

In response to an intercontinental ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, Hungary will deploy air defense systems on the border with Ukraine, according to Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky.
“The risk of the Russian-Ukrainian war escalating is greater than ever before,” said Szalay-Bobrovniczky. “However, the government is preparing for all eventualities, which is why it is installing an air defense system in the northeastern part of the country.”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- ICC creates a global firestorm of sorts with its arrest warrants for Netanyahu

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu: Israel will not recognize ICC decision

Global response to the arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu and Gallant is mixed but very sharp. Many nations announcing that they will arrest Netanyahu if he enters their country. Some other nations, US included, have rebuked the ICC for the warrants and have openly stated the arrests will not happen. Some countries signatories to the ICC have also announced they will refuse the warrants as well.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

The IDF announced that five senior Hamxs operatives, including key leaders of the October 7 massacre, were eliminated in an airstrike in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza. Among the dead are Jihad Kahlout and Muhammad Oukal, who led the brutal attacks on the Mefalsim area. Additional operatives killed include Anas Abu Shakian, Nur al-Din Abu Jadian, and Sihab Adaim.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel appears to have driven a second penetration to the Med Sea in SW Lebanon. The original encirclement prong is on the outskirts of Mazraat Bayout Al-Siyad, This new one follows a road about half way between the northern one and the border. Link below depicts the current situation as understood from OSINT

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1859948272326263204

IAF continues to turn S Beirut sections under Hezbollah control into rubble as airstrikes are almost continuous. Hezbollah strongholds around Tyre are suffering the same fate. Much if the rest of the air activity are in a CAS role in the south.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Israeli army says a ballistic missile launched from Yemen at Israel was successfully intercepted by air defenses. According to the military, the missile was shot down outside of Israel’s borders.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel’s offensive in SW Lebanon has gained steam and could trap a considerable number of Hezbollah forces. See link above.

Israel’s relentless assault on Hezbollah’s higher command and supply has largely prevented it from generating a more organized defense in the south. “Barrages” of rockets are growing fewer in number. Tactical Hezbollah units are appealing to be losing ground quicker in the south as Israel penetrated into and through the second line of defense. Lack of command and control is progressively reducing Hezbollah defensive operations to small elements unable to provide support to lateral elements - setting up conditions for destruction in detail as Israel pivots behind those defensive lines and starts rolling them up.

Gaza continues to transition from a medium intensity fight to a low intensity level. Search and destroy Hamas cells particularly in N Gaza. Goal is to clear it out to put central and parts of S Israel out of range of Hamas rockets.
Smaller level search and destroy operations are ongoing throughout the rest of Gaza.

Tension from a potential new round of attacks between Iran and Israel continue to decline. Iran has not given up trying to hurt Jews as evidenced by the funding of moslem Pogrom attacks in the Netherlands and other parts of Europe as well as slipping money to the ICC in support of its prosecution (persecution ) of Israel.

Iran –

Users across Iran have reported significant internet slowdowns and disruptions on Thursday night. Internet researcher Nariman Gharib had earlier reported that major internet service providers (ISPs) would begin reducing bandwidth at 8 pm Tehran time Thursday, though the reasons for the move remain unclear.

***
In a joint statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran described the approval of the resolution of the Council of Governors as a political, unrealistic and destructive action.

Earlier U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board passed a resolution against Iran demanding greater compliance and documentation of the Iranian program and failure to do so would trigger “snap backs” - Reuters News

RELATED - Iran claims to be using new centrifuges to push the purity of uranium even higher, faster.

***
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stern warning to Israel against targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, calling it “a grave mistake.” Speaking to Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen, Araghchi stated, “If Israel attacks our nuclear facilities, we will respond decisively. I doubt they would take such a reckless step.”
He also said: The Qatari Foreign Minister assured us that there are no plans to shut down Hamxs offices in Doha, dismissing the circulating claims as mere rumors.

Iraq -

Iraq is reportedly bracing for Israeli airstrikes against Iranian operatives and supported militias that have been identified as receiving missiles and drones from Iran. The Iranian dominated Iraqi govt is mostly powerless to prevent Iran’s actions in country.

Syria -

A missile attack targets the American base in the Conoco gas field in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor.

***
Turkey’s attacks against the Kurds have resulted in over a million Syrians losing drinking water supplies.

Turkey –

A Turkish anti-submarine warship has been patrolling off the coast of Lebanon for at least a week now. Turkey has not declared a purpose for the patrols.