Globalism / Great Reset –
Though on the surface appearing to target only Israel, the recent decision to send warrants out for the arrest of Netanyahu and Gantz by the ICC is evidence of this legal arm of the globalists trying to push their way out of their box. In doing so, many nations are now clearly picking sides - pro and anti israel. The prosecutor is a radical moslem under sexual assault/rape charges, to deflecting to Israel is a natural.
The bottom line is this is the kind of kangaroo courts we can expect from a world ruled by the globalists.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
The Democrat Mayor of Denver, Colorado Mike Johnston has challenged Trump to try to deport any illegal migrants from his city, saying he would deploy the Denver City Police and volunteers from the local community to use force against federal forces trying to deport illegals.
“More than us having DPD stationed at the county line to keep them out, you would have 50,000 Denverites there. It’s like the Tiananmen Square moment with the rose and the gun... You’d have every one of those Highland moms who came out for the migrants. You don’t want to mess with them.”
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859445390342246474
OBSERVATION - This is the most radical announcement of the effort to prevent deportations of illegals. This is the first to openly say they will deploy local police to oppose federal agents - an act that implies the application of lethal force. Pause and think of that - using force against federal officials. We will see what happens when the time comes, but this is the cutting edge of a nasty new trend coming out the sanctuary movement.
Additionally, Antifa has a growing presence in Denver as well. You can bet that given the chance to ‘smash the facists’ violence would grow very quickly. 2025 is building out to be a very dangerous year.
***
This weekend brings a mix of pro-palestinian and pro-trans protests. Probably of significant violence is low, though there may be some local vandalism and other crime that spins off. Violence may be directed at any passers by they consider to be opposing their views. Best to avoid these areas - be situationally alert in metro areas where these protests commonly occur.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.84%, the highest level since July, from 6.785% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.29% during the same period a year ago.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/30-year-mortgage-7/2024/11/22/id/1189057/
OBSERVATION - Fed rate drops have done very little for homebuyers. Even at a 6.84% (which only those with good credit ratings can get) most homes remain out of reach to those looking to buy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th ?????
FBI Director & DHS Secretary refused to testify at annual hearing on threats to the nation.
RELATED - RUMINT. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is reportedly negotiating his exit and wants to leave immune from any potential investigations from the Trump Administration.
OBSERVATION - Wray and Mayorkas both know there will be no blowback other than verbal rantings by congress over their refusal to openly testify as they have done every other year.
Mayorkas knows is rear end is flapping in the breeze and I don’t think any deal will be done as Trump will overrule any DoJ plea bargain/arrangement.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Both harris and biden have effectively dropped off the radar.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 over potential sanctuary movement violence against mass deportations.
Continued rumors of illegals massing to get across the border before Trump comes in.
TDA threats continue to develop in 16 states as earlier noted this week.
North/South Korea –
During a Defense Expo yesterday in Pyongyang, North Korean Supreme-Leader Kim Jong Un accused the United States of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, claiming that the world is at its highest risk ever of thermonuclear war.
OBSERVATION - Kim may well be prompted in part with his rhetoric by Russia as part of the growing agreements and relationship. Stir up trouble in a whole other sector to divert US from its support of Ukraine.
***
Rumors that Russia has supplied NK with some advanced ADA systems in exchange for sending troops to fight against Ukraine.
Russia -
*****
Russia struck Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro city with a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile Oreshnik, - Putin said.
According to a U.S. Official who spoke to ABC News; the Russian ballistic missile attack against Dnipro in Central Ukraine, did not involve an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) as being claimed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but instead an “Experimental”Medium-Range Ballistic Missile equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV).
The Pentagon has identified the Russian Medium-Range Ballistic Missile that was fired last night against the City of Dnipro in Central Ukraine, as an RS-26 “Rubezh” Road-Mobile Ballistic Missile which was equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry-Vehicle (MIRV) Payload containing 6 warheads (believed to be either conventional or nuclear).
The United States was pre-notified by Russia shortly before its strike with an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile on Ukraine’s city of Dnipro through nuclear risk reduction channels, a U.S. official said on Thursday. Now Kremlin spokesperson says Russia had notified U.S. 30 minutes before launch
OBSERVATION - Observers and OSINT review indicate that these warheads were either inert (dummy) or had minimal explosives. Most of the damage appears to be due to impact, not explosions.
Additionally, the hyperbolic claims of hypersonic warheads is a propaganda fear term. Technically, all ballistic missile warheads are hypersonic. What modern military hypersonic’s address are warheads that are capable of maneuvering at those speeds to defeat ADA systems.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian facilities – Putin
OBSERVATION - Some additional inference to Poland and the Baltic States as potential first round targets, beside US, Britain and France.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 23 UAVs over the Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk regions — Russian Defense Ministry.
***
Explosion was reported in Dnipro city. Ballistic missile strike.
***
Dep Pentagon PressSec: Russia’s intermediate-range ballistic missile was based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model. The United States was pre-notified briefly before the launch through Nuclear Risk Reduction channels
***
Yesterday, Russian Channels reported that the strike by the Ukrainian Air Force, using at least 10 “Storm Shadow” Air-Launched Cruise Missiles, against an underground, fortified-command center in the Kursk Region; resulted in the death of 18 Russian officers, including a senior sommander, as well as 3 North Korean officers. In addition, a dozen other soldiers and officers were wounded in the attack, including one of North Korea’s most senior generals.
***
(ISW). Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Vuhledar. Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kreminna, southeast of Chasiv Yar, in Toretsk, southeast of Kurakhove, northeast of Vuhledar, and likely advanced northeast of Velyka Novosilka.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
(ISW). Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Sudzha.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novodmytrivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Territory –
Krasnodar, Russia— Ukraine reportedly attacked Russia using NATO-supplied long range missiles. An airfield and associated elements were reportedly hit with parts of the city have been burning for hours
Summary —
Tensions continue to ratchet up as Ukraine launches another deep strike into Russia and Russia openly threatens western nations with punitive strikes. Even a conventional strike on a NATO country would trigger Art 5 responses, no need for a nuke. putin must be banking that his threats will lessen western support for Ukraine’s new deep strike authorization. He may also be thinking that even if he escalates by actually attacking NATO, they would be more afraid to commit to a war. OTOH, putin can hardly sustain the influx of new military forces into eastern Ukraine where his units are already strained with the push to capture the Donbas region and retake Kursk. With the influx of NATO would bring air power with capabilities to offset Russian ADA and provide air domination.
This is a dangerous game of chicken being played out with peak intensity prior to Trump’s return to the WH. He may inherit a full out regional war.
As noted above, Russia continued to claw terrain away from Ukraine. Monthly losses continue to range more than 30% higher (40K - 50K vs 30K) than earlier this summer and is putting a strain on Russia’s ability to supply replacements. The influx of NK forces could help but they are behind the power curve getting up to speed for this kind of war.
Ukraine is facing its own manpower shortages, suffering losses, though substantially lower than Russia but with a much smaller pool to recruit from.
Use of this “new” missile system for tactical / intermediate strategic strikes against Ukraine will likely be limited. Construction of modification of existing intermediate ICBMs for conventional attacks will be very costly. Their use, should putin continue, will be more of a terror weapon against Ukraine. They will also serve as a threat to all of Europe, given the 5000 Km range.
Europe / NATO General –
In response to an intercontinental ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, Hungary will deploy air defense systems on the border with Ukraine, according to Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky.
“The risk of the Russian-Ukrainian war escalating is greater than ever before,” said Szalay-Bobrovniczky. “However, the government is preparing for all eventualities, which is why it is installing an air defense system in the northeastern part of the country.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC creates a global firestorm of sorts with its arrest warrants for Netanyahu
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu: Israel will not recognize ICC decision
Global response to the arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu and Gallant is mixed but very sharp. Many nations announcing that they will arrest Netanyahu if he enters their country. Some other nations, US included, have rebuked the ICC for the warrants and have openly stated the arrests will not happen. Some countries signatories to the ICC have also announced they will refuse the warrants as well.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF announced that five senior Hamxs operatives, including key leaders of the October 7 massacre, were eliminated in an airstrike in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza. Among the dead are Jihad Kahlout and Muhammad Oukal, who led the brutal attacks on the Mefalsim area. Additional operatives killed include Anas Abu Shakian, Nur al-Din Abu Jadian, and Sihab Adaim.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel appears to have driven a second penetration to the Med Sea in SW Lebanon. The original encirclement prong is on the outskirts of Mazraat Bayout Al-Siyad, This new one follows a road about half way between the northern one and the border. Link below depicts the current situation as understood from OSINT
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1859948272326263204
IAF continues to turn S Beirut sections under Hezbollah control into rubble as airstrikes are almost continuous. Hezbollah strongholds around Tyre are suffering the same fate. Much if the rest of the air activity are in a CAS role in the south.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Israeli army says a ballistic missile launched from Yemen at Israel was successfully intercepted by air defenses. According to the military, the missile was shot down outside of Israel’s borders.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel’s offensive in SW Lebanon has gained steam and could trap a considerable number of Hezbollah forces. See link above.
Israel’s relentless assault on Hezbollah’s higher command and supply has largely prevented it from generating a more organized defense in the south. “Barrages” of rockets are growing fewer in number. Tactical Hezbollah units are appealing to be losing ground quicker in the south as Israel penetrated into and through the second line of defense. Lack of command and control is progressively reducing Hezbollah defensive operations to small elements unable to provide support to lateral elements - setting up conditions for destruction in detail as Israel pivots behind those defensive lines and starts rolling them up.
Gaza continues to transition from a medium intensity fight to a low intensity level. Search and destroy Hamas cells particularly in N Gaza. Goal is to clear it out to put central and parts of S Israel out of range of Hamas rockets.
Smaller level search and destroy operations are ongoing throughout the rest of Gaza.
Tension from a potential new round of attacks between Iran and Israel continue to decline. Iran has not given up trying to hurt Jews as evidenced by the funding of moslem Pogrom attacks in the Netherlands and other parts of Europe as well as slipping money to the ICC in support of its prosecution (persecution ) of Israel.
Iran –
Users across Iran have reported significant internet slowdowns and disruptions on Thursday night. Internet researcher Nariman Gharib had earlier reported that major internet service providers (ISPs) would begin reducing bandwidth at 8 pm Tehran time Thursday, though the reasons for the move remain unclear.
***
In a joint statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran described the approval of the resolution of the Council of Governors as a political, unrealistic and destructive action.
Earlier U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board passed a resolution against Iran demanding greater compliance and documentation of the Iranian program and failure to do so would trigger “snap backs” - Reuters News
RELATED - Iran claims to be using new centrifuges to push the purity of uranium even higher, faster.
***
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stern warning to Israel against targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, calling it “a grave mistake.” Speaking to Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen, Araghchi stated, “If Israel attacks our nuclear facilities, we will respond decisively. I doubt they would take such a reckless step.”
He also said: The Qatari Foreign Minister assured us that there are no plans to shut down Hamxs offices in Doha, dismissing the circulating claims as mere rumors.
Iraq -
Iraq is reportedly bracing for Israeli airstrikes against Iranian operatives and supported militias that have been identified as receiving missiles and drones from Iran. The Iranian dominated Iraqi govt is mostly powerless to prevent Iran’s actions in country.
Syria -
A missile attack targets the American base in the Conoco gas field in the northern countryside of Deir Ezzor.
***
Turkey’s attacks against the Kurds have resulted in over a million Syrians losing drinking water supplies.
Turkey –
A Turkish anti-submarine warship has been patrolling off the coast of Lebanon for at least a week now. Turkey has not declared a purpose for the patrols.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
New Mexico’s governor states ‘We are not going to cooperate’ with mass deportations.
OBSERVATION - Potential real battle lines being drawn. In this case it appears non-participation versus active prevention. What will she do if the illegals she is harboring go on a rampage?
***
Again, numerous protests by pro-trans and pro-hamas groups in major cities in the US. Increase awareness for those pro-hamas events in that they may see the rioting / violence in Canada yesterday as a stimulant for turnout and violence.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Authorities are exercising extreme caution in relation to the upcoming 2024 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, assessing both foreign and domestic threats, according to a joint threat assessment obtained by ABC News.
The assessment, which was investigated by the FBI and the New York Police Department, revealed that the threats “stems from lone offenders and small groups of individuals seeking to commit acts of violence.”
“Though the 2024 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade event will provide a broad set of potential soft targets for an attack, congested areas where the largest amount of people gather – particularly designated viewing areas – are likely the most vulnerable spots for a mass casualty attack,” the assessment read.
The assessment continues, adding that there currently is not a “specific actionable threat.” However, it also reveals that authorities are concerned with “vehicle ramming” around the crowded parade, which “has become a recurring tactic employed by threat actors.”
OBSERVATION - This is almost an annual warning for this parade. This year with global chaos at a high with Iran and its proxies getting hammered, massive illegal problems and more, the warning has greater credibility than in past years.
One source is increasingly Iranian and pro-hamas elements - so far having attempted ‘lone wolf’ style attacks. However, larger more organized groups of pro hamas could form and penetrate into the parade route on foot to cause disruptions.
***
Federal and local authorities are investigating multiple drones seen flying over Morris County on Monday night.
“There is no known threat to public safety,” according to a joint statement released by the Morris County Prosecutor’s Office.
Authorities didn’t say if they know who was operating the drones or why they were overhead.
OBSERVATION - Potential terror attack precursor, that’s why its here. Unknown drone flights are increasing in occurrence across the country. Many instances are over military facilities, in this one Picatinny Arsenal, was overflown. These could be pranks, but more likely covert intelligence collection with potential hostile intent. Drone equipment and technology is abundant out there and there are millions here illegally that could have been placed here for direct intel collection.
***
Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order this week for the Department of Public Safety to “target and arrest any criminals executing” Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influence operations. The governor cited a CCP “Operation Fox Hunt” aimed at the forcible return of dissidents to China. The governor also issued orders to divest the state from Chinese assets and protect infrastructure.
“The Chinese Communist Party has engaged in a worldwide harassment campaign against Chinese dissidents in attempts to forcibly return them to China,” Governor Abbott said in a written statement this week. “Texas will not tolerate the harassment or coercion of the more than 250,000 individuals of Chinese descent who legally call Texas home by the Chinese Communist Party or its heinous proxies.”
The FBI revealed it shut down a PRC “police service station” in New York City. These “stations” operate worldwide to carry out this “unlawful campaign of threats, harassment, and harm” against U.S. citizens of Chinese origin,” the governor added, citing the human rights group Safeguard Defenders.
OBSERVATION - A terror campaign by China here in the US. It has been identified for a number years now - noting NYC and on the west coast. Chinese have been busy globally with the same MO.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The U.S. gross national debt surpassed $36 trillion on Thursday, according to Treasury data, while a Federal Reserve report showed intensifying concern about America’s fiscal health and its broader implications for financial stability.
The massive debt milestone was reached just over three months after the previous $35 trillion benchmark, highlighting the rapid accumulation of federal borrowing in recent years.
Meanwhile, respondents to a New York Federal Reserve survey that was cited in the Fed’s newly released semi-annual Financial Stability Report identified U.S. fiscal debt sustainability as the most frequently cited near-term risk to financial stability, overtaking concerns about persistent inflation and monetary tightening.
OBSERVATION - Ever wonder just HOW the WEF will achieve it’s financial ‘global reset’? Watch the countries implode under unsustainable or repayable debt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
Some political analysts have referred to Gaetz’s short run as the AG nominee as a “Reconnaissance by Fire” to flush out those in congress who will oppose the Trump agenda and nominees. If true, it did expose a number of RINOS, especially key ones in the senate and adversaries more aligned with democrats than the American people.
Illegal Immigration –
Note - There is beginning to be a lot of cross-over here with CW2 related issues.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Additional threats against the west, in particular Britain, France and Poland, for their support of Ukraine. These threats include both conventional and nuclear strikes on key locations.
Economic Impact –
The Russian ruble continues to plummet on the global marked, now worth less than a US penny.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
RUMINT –
Sources within the Ukrainian General Staff, that Russia has accumulated almost 60,000 troops in Kursk Oblast. This would be an increase over the initial 40K reported a little over a month ago.
MORE - Unconfirmed reports of NK forces in the Kharkiv region.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
North Korean troops massed in Russia to enter war in Ukraine ‘soon’: Pentagon chief
***
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 64 strike drones starting 01:30 early morning up to now, and 4 more drones are still flying
Russian losses per 23/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1420 men
+20 tanks
+36 AFVs
+24 artillery pieces
Summary —
Two key items to summarize this morning.
Number one - Russian gains along the front south of Pokrovsk is really going to suck for Russians this winter. Some OSINT analysts are beginning to note that Russian frontlines in this region are now entering into a lowland region that in the winter-spring becomes a dismal swamp land with few to no small villages to shelter in. Thus Russian front line forces will be really bogged down in a swamp and with their lousy logistical support could face considerable casualties from cold weather and cold water injuries.
The second area is the big discussion surrounding the Russian ballistic missile attack on Dniper this week. A lot of hyperbole and some interesting developments.
For starters, this ‘new’ missile seems to have appeared out of nowhere, not really on anyone’s radar. The BBC reports -
“Russian military expert Ilya Kramnik told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestiya it is likely that the new missile, whose development has been classified until now, is at the upper end of medium-range missiles.
‘It is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles [with a range of] 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental,” he says.
He suggested that it could be a reduced version of the Yars-M missile complex, which is an ICBM.
Another expert, Dmitry Kornev, told the paper the Oreshnik could have been created on the basis of the shorter-range Iskander missiles - already commonly used on Ukraine - but with a new-generation engine.
An Iskander with an enlarged engine was used at the Kapustin Yar test site in southern Russia last spring, he said, adding that this may well have been the Oreshnik. Thursday’s missile was fired into Ukraine from the same site.””
Russia has claimed the missile was still in a testing phase and the launch against Ukraine was its first major test. What makes this missile interesting is the more conventional warhead bent of the system.
OSINT analysts for the BBC said the missile was equipped with six warheads, each with six sub-munitions.
This assumption is backed up by BBC Verify’s examination of video footage of the strike. Most of it is blurry or of poor quality, but it clearly shows six flashes against the night sky, each comprised of a cluster of six individual projectiles.
The BBC assessment seems reasonable as the numerous videos of the strike bear out similar - six main streaks with six associated impacts.
NOTE - I observed the same and wondered about the seemingly multiple hits, which I though could be debris from the MIRV body.
Among the propaganda hype is the hypersonic claims. Folks, hypersonic warheads have been around since the 1950, modern warhead travel at those speeds 10X the speed of sound. That alone makes them difficult to target. What Russia seems to be inferring is that each ‘warhead’ has some degree of extra maneuverability at those speeds prior to release of its submunitions, enabling it to more easily defy any air defense systems.
Extracts from -
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg07zw9vj1o
Video evidence strongly suggests that these submunitions were inert and that the damage caused this time was from the high speed impacts.
Another big question is just how accurate is the targeting. Conventional ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads have an accuracy of 90m-250m CEP, close enough for nukes but for conventional strikes absolutely inaccurate. The use of submunitions may be an attempt to make up for this - thus this new missile becomes the IBM equivalent to Russian BM-21 multiple rocket launchers.
Other tactical capabilities of these warheads remains speculative. Some Russian authors suggest these sub munitions have bunker busting capabilities, able to penetrate deeply because of the kinetic power of the high speed impact alone. But that would require the explosive mechanism to remain intact and not vaporize on impact. Also, the precision targeting of these submunitions will need to be substantially better.
Finally, does Russia have the capabilities to produce enough of these new missiles to make a difference? Economic sanctions have severely limited Russia’s ability to procure the high tech materials necessary to construct tanks, artillery, air defense equipment, munitions etc. Russia may have to resort to striping parts from existing systems or repurposing Yars-M or RS-26 Rubezh from a nuclear to this new conventional system. A MIRV with submunitions is a new concept. Russia has the technology to place conventional devices in the submunitions packages, but as the Nov 21 attack shows, the submunition packages were test devices.
As a tactical weapon, it would be a very expensive system. As a strategic system it could seriously damage targets like airfields, factories etc with the submunitions spread out over the area. Currently, it is a weapon of fear and terror, who’s unveiling is an attempt by Russia to push back US/Britain/France allowance of weapons that strike deeper into Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Probable targeting of Senior Hezbollah leadership in Beirut overnight
- IDF making gains in S Lebanon and are seizing key terrain in the move northward.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack.
The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
***
Talks of a ceasefire in Lebanon have suddenly quieted down overnight.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Relatively quiet throughout most of Gaza with the greatest concentration of action being in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army has reportedly taken control of the entire town of Khiyam and the village of Kafr Shuba. The road from the western Bekaa towards the south and Nabatieh was cut off. This is in the eastern border region.
The Israeli army advanced deep into Lebanon and besieged Hezbollah terrorists inside the Naqoura area after cutting off all land routes and all supply lines of troops and fire by air, land and sea. This is in the Tyre district.
***
UNIFIL: 4 of our soldiers injured in two Hezbollah rockets fired at our headquarters in the town of Shamaa, southern Lebanon
***
Israeli airstrikes are beginning to target central Beirut, hitting areas beyond Hezbollah strongholds to further pressure the terrorist organization.
***
A significant Israeli airstrike on a reported multi-story part residential building in Beirut tonight looks to be another High Value Target, likely a senior Hezbollah commander. Israel media reporting the target of the elimination was Talal Hamieh, head of Hezbollah’s External Security Organization known as Unit 910 in charge of overseeing operations abroad; among group’s first generation; joined in mid-80s.
Saudi report: In the area of the attack tonight in Beirut, a meeting of a number of senior Hezbollah officials was held. Those “seniors” are defined as out of touch.
***
At Tyre, Hezbollah controlled suburbs continue to be hammered by the IAF
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Airstrikes target the IRGC militia headquarters in the village of Al-Salhiyah, near Al-Bukamal in eastern Syria
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hezbollah leadership likely took another big hit overnight judging from the no-warning strike on a building in Beirut in a manner similar to that used when they took out Naseralla . The shift to other neighborhoods indicates Hezbollah forcing their way in seeing civilian protection - but not getting it. In many districts of Beirut, various sects / groups opposed to Hezbollah have actively kept them out of their neighborhoods to avoid this.
Combat on the ground shows Hezbollah being forced back and in some instances being surrounded on the western and eastern ends of the border. IDF advancements in this phase going for the second line of defenses is going much faster than the first phase, indicating deteriorating conditions for Hezbollah fighters. At this pace, we could see mass surrenders and captures in those areas.
On the eastern border press, there appears to be a possibility that IDF is also going to make a run up the coast line towards Tyre. This could trap even more Hezbollah forces.
Activity in Gaza has slowed down, perhaps to facilitate an effort to locate hostages as well as encourage civilians to report where they are being held. I’m not optimistic that any more will be found alive given the tendency for these terrorists to kill any hostages as their final middle finger to Israel.
Conditions with Iran remain elevated for the possibility of a missile attack. As noted above the Iranian FM reinterated “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
Meanwhile, I’m sure Israel is continually updating its targeting list and priorities against Iran.
Iran –
Lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Kazem Gharib Abadi threatened on November 22 that Iran would withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if the E3 triggers the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).