CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
New Mexico’s governor states ‘We are not going to cooperate’ with mass deportations.
OBSERVATION - Potential real battle lines being drawn. In this case it appears non-participation versus active prevention. What will she do if the illegals she is harboring go on a rampage?
***
Again, numerous protests by pro-trans and pro-hamas groups in major cities in the US. Increase awareness for those pro-hamas events in that they may see the rioting / violence in Canada yesterday as a stimulant for turnout and violence.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Authorities are exercising extreme caution in relation to the upcoming 2024 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, assessing both foreign and domestic threats, according to a joint threat assessment obtained by ABC News.
The assessment, which was investigated by the FBI and the New York Police Department, revealed that the threats “stems from lone offenders and small groups of individuals seeking to commit acts of violence.”
“Though the 2024 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade event will provide a broad set of potential soft targets for an attack, congested areas where the largest amount of people gather – particularly designated viewing areas – are likely the most vulnerable spots for a mass casualty attack,” the assessment read.
The assessment continues, adding that there currently is not a “specific actionable threat.” However, it also reveals that authorities are concerned with “vehicle ramming” around the crowded parade, which “has become a recurring tactic employed by threat actors.”
OBSERVATION - This is almost an annual warning for this parade. This year with global chaos at a high with Iran and its proxies getting hammered, massive illegal problems and more, the warning has greater credibility than in past years.
One source is increasingly Iranian and pro-hamas elements - so far having attempted ‘lone wolf’ style attacks. However, larger more organized groups of pro hamas could form and penetrate into the parade route on foot to cause disruptions.
***
Federal and local authorities are investigating multiple drones seen flying over Morris County on Monday night.
“There is no known threat to public safety,” according to a joint statement released by the Morris County Prosecutor’s Office.
Authorities didn’t say if they know who was operating the drones or why they were overhead.
OBSERVATION - Potential terror attack precursor, that’s why its here. Unknown drone flights are increasing in occurrence across the country. Many instances are over military facilities, in this one Picatinny Arsenal, was overflown. These could be pranks, but more likely covert intelligence collection with potential hostile intent. Drone equipment and technology is abundant out there and there are millions here illegally that could have been placed here for direct intel collection.
***
Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order this week for the Department of Public Safety to “target and arrest any criminals executing” Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influence operations. The governor cited a CCP “Operation Fox Hunt” aimed at the forcible return of dissidents to China. The governor also issued orders to divest the state from Chinese assets and protect infrastructure.
“The Chinese Communist Party has engaged in a worldwide harassment campaign against Chinese dissidents in attempts to forcibly return them to China,” Governor Abbott said in a written statement this week. “Texas will not tolerate the harassment or coercion of the more than 250,000 individuals of Chinese descent who legally call Texas home by the Chinese Communist Party or its heinous proxies.”
The FBI revealed it shut down a PRC “police service station” in New York City. These “stations” operate worldwide to carry out this “unlawful campaign of threats, harassment, and harm” against U.S. citizens of Chinese origin,” the governor added, citing the human rights group Safeguard Defenders.
OBSERVATION - A terror campaign by China here in the US. It has been identified for a number years now - noting NYC and on the west coast. Chinese have been busy globally with the same MO.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The U.S. gross national debt surpassed $36 trillion on Thursday, according to Treasury data, while a Federal Reserve report showed intensifying concern about America’s fiscal health and its broader implications for financial stability.
The massive debt milestone was reached just over three months after the previous $35 trillion benchmark, highlighting the rapid accumulation of federal borrowing in recent years.
Meanwhile, respondents to a New York Federal Reserve survey that was cited in the Fed’s newly released semi-annual Financial Stability Report identified U.S. fiscal debt sustainability as the most frequently cited near-term risk to financial stability, overtaking concerns about persistent inflation and monetary tightening.
OBSERVATION - Ever wonder just HOW the WEF will achieve it’s financial ‘global reset’? Watch the countries implode under unsustainable or repayable debt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
Some political analysts have referred to Gaetz’s short run as the AG nominee as a “Reconnaissance by Fire” to flush out those in congress who will oppose the Trump agenda and nominees. If true, it did expose a number of RINOS, especially key ones in the senate and adversaries more aligned with democrats than the American people.
Illegal Immigration –
Note - There is beginning to be a lot of cross-over here with CW2 related issues.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Additional threats against the west, in particular Britain, France and Poland, for their support of Ukraine. These threats include both conventional and nuclear strikes on key locations.
Economic Impact –
The Russian ruble continues to plummet on the global marked, now worth less than a US penny.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
RUMINT –
Sources within the Ukrainian General Staff, that Russia has accumulated almost 60,000 troops in Kursk Oblast. This would be an increase over the initial 40K reported a little over a month ago.
MORE - Unconfirmed reports of NK forces in the Kharkiv region.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
North Korean troops massed in Russia to enter war in Ukraine ‘soon’: Pentagon chief
***
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 64 strike drones starting 01:30 early morning up to now, and 4 more drones are still flying
Russian losses per 23/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1420 men
+20 tanks
+36 AFVs
+24 artillery pieces
Summary —
Two key items to summarize this morning.
Number one - Russian gains along the front south of Pokrovsk is really going to suck for Russians this winter. Some OSINT analysts are beginning to note that Russian frontlines in this region are now entering into a lowland region that in the winter-spring becomes a dismal swamp land with few to no small villages to shelter in. Thus Russian front line forces will be really bogged down in a swamp and with their lousy logistical support could face considerable casualties from cold weather and cold water injuries.
The second area is the big discussion surrounding the Russian ballistic missile attack on Dniper this week. A lot of hyperbole and some interesting developments.
For starters, this ‘new’ missile seems to have appeared out of nowhere, not really on anyone’s radar. The BBC reports -
“Russian military expert Ilya Kramnik told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestiya it is likely that the new missile, whose development has been classified until now, is at the upper end of medium-range missiles.
‘It is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles [with a range of] 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental,” he says.
He suggested that it could be a reduced version of the Yars-M missile complex, which is an ICBM.
Another expert, Dmitry Kornev, told the paper the Oreshnik could have been created on the basis of the shorter-range Iskander missiles - already commonly used on Ukraine - but with a new-generation engine.
An Iskander with an enlarged engine was used at the Kapustin Yar test site in southern Russia last spring, he said, adding that this may well have been the Oreshnik. Thursday’s missile was fired into Ukraine from the same site.””
Russia has claimed the missile was still in a testing phase and the launch against Ukraine was its first major test. What makes this missile interesting is the more conventional warhead bent of the system.
OSINT analysts for the BBC said the missile was equipped with six warheads, each with six sub-munitions.
This assumption is backed up by BBC Verify’s examination of video footage of the strike. Most of it is blurry or of poor quality, but it clearly shows six flashes against the night sky, each comprised of a cluster of six individual projectiles.
The BBC assessment seems reasonable as the numerous videos of the strike bear out similar - six main streaks with six associated impacts.
NOTE - I observed the same and wondered about the seemingly multiple hits, which I though could be debris from the MIRV body.
Among the propaganda hype is the hypersonic claims. Folks, hypersonic warheads have been around since the 1950, modern warhead travel at those speeds 10X the speed of sound. That alone makes them difficult to target. What Russia seems to be inferring is that each ‘warhead’ has some degree of extra maneuverability at those speeds prior to release of its submunitions, enabling it to more easily defy any air defense systems.
Extracts from -
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg07zw9vj1o
Video evidence strongly suggests that these submunitions were inert and that the damage caused this time was from the high speed impacts.
Another big question is just how accurate is the targeting. Conventional ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads have an accuracy of 90m-250m CEP, close enough for nukes but for conventional strikes absolutely inaccurate. The use of submunitions may be an attempt to make up for this - thus this new missile becomes the IBM equivalent to Russian BM-21 multiple rocket launchers.
Other tactical capabilities of these warheads remains speculative. Some Russian authors suggest these sub munitions have bunker busting capabilities, able to penetrate deeply because of the kinetic power of the high speed impact alone. But that would require the explosive mechanism to remain intact and not vaporize on impact. Also, the precision targeting of these submunitions will need to be substantially better.
Finally, does Russia have the capabilities to produce enough of these new missiles to make a difference? Economic sanctions have severely limited Russia’s ability to procure the high tech materials necessary to construct tanks, artillery, air defense equipment, munitions etc. Russia may have to resort to striping parts from existing systems or repurposing Yars-M or RS-26 Rubezh from a nuclear to this new conventional system. A MIRV with submunitions is a new concept. Russia has the technology to place conventional devices in the submunitions packages, but as the Nov 21 attack shows, the submunition packages were test devices.
As a tactical weapon, it would be a very expensive system. As a strategic system it could seriously damage targets like airfields, factories etc with the submunitions spread out over the area. Currently, it is a weapon of fear and terror, who’s unveiling is an attempt by Russia to push back US/Britain/France allowance of weapons that strike deeper into Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Probable targeting of Senior Hezbollah leadership in Beirut overnight
- IDF making gains in S Lebanon and are seizing key terrain in the move northward.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack.
The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
***
Talks of a ceasefire in Lebanon have suddenly quieted down overnight.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Relatively quiet throughout most of Gaza with the greatest concentration of action being in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army has reportedly taken control of the entire town of Khiyam and the village of Kafr Shuba. The road from the western Bekaa towards the south and Nabatieh was cut off. This is in the eastern border region.
The Israeli army advanced deep into Lebanon and besieged Hezbollah terrorists inside the Naqoura area after cutting off all land routes and all supply lines of troops and fire by air, land and sea. This is in the Tyre district.
***
UNIFIL: 4 of our soldiers injured in two Hezbollah rockets fired at our headquarters in the town of Shamaa, southern Lebanon
***
Israeli airstrikes are beginning to target central Beirut, hitting areas beyond Hezbollah strongholds to further pressure the terrorist organization.
***
A significant Israeli airstrike on a reported multi-story part residential building in Beirut tonight looks to be another High Value Target, likely a senior Hezbollah commander. Israel media reporting the target of the elimination was Talal Hamieh, head of Hezbollah’s External Security Organization known as Unit 910 in charge of overseeing operations abroad; among group’s first generation; joined in mid-80s.
Saudi report: In the area of the attack tonight in Beirut, a meeting of a number of senior Hezbollah officials was held. Those “seniors” are defined as out of touch.
***
At Tyre, Hezbollah controlled suburbs continue to be hammered by the IAF
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Airstrikes target the IRGC militia headquarters in the village of Al-Salhiyah, near Al-Bukamal in eastern Syria
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hezbollah leadership likely took another big hit overnight judging from the no-warning strike on a building in Beirut in a manner similar to that used when they took out Naseralla . The shift to other neighborhoods indicates Hezbollah forcing their way in seeing civilian protection - but not getting it. In many districts of Beirut, various sects / groups opposed to Hezbollah have actively kept them out of their neighborhoods to avoid this.
Combat on the ground shows Hezbollah being forced back and in some instances being surrounded on the western and eastern ends of the border. IDF advancements in this phase going for the second line of defenses is going much faster than the first phase, indicating deteriorating conditions for Hezbollah fighters. At this pace, we could see mass surrenders and captures in those areas.
On the eastern border press, there appears to be a possibility that IDF is also going to make a run up the coast line towards Tyre. This could trap even more Hezbollah forces.
Activity in Gaza has slowed down, perhaps to facilitate an effort to locate hostages as well as encourage civilians to report where they are being held. I’m not optimistic that any more will be found alive given the tendency for these terrorists to kill any hostages as their final middle finger to Israel.
Conditions with Iran remain elevated for the possibility of a missile attack. As noted above the Iranian FM reinterated “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
Meanwhile, I’m sure Israel is continually updating its targeting list and priorities against Iran.
Iran –
Lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Kazem Gharib Abadi threatened on November 22 that Iran would withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if the E3 triggers the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Thanks
The unintended consequences of dropping the 'boy scout' goodness of warnings is foreign populations will start protecting themselves from being used as shields. This might be a 'good thing'...
Moving into Thanksgiving week, we at least can be thankful for a pause in the chaos. But I almost hate to say it - we can’t let our guard down. The left and all their minions are talking nicey - nice but behind the curtain they are talking another tune. Please, take the time to be thankful with family - that is the most important thing we can do, especially if / when the wheels come off next year.
Globalism / Great Reset –
For years successive COPs have papered over the cracks, but the cracks have now become unbridgeable chasms.
The West wants the world to give up fossil fuels. The developing countries want money, lots of it that the West can’t afford.
So far at Baku, the West has promised to pony up $250bn a year by 2035 in climate aid. But when inflation is taken into account, this is barely more than the $100bn agreed at Copenhagen in 2008. The third world wanted $1.3 trillion.
China still refuses to pay a cent, and Azerbaijan has made it clear that it will not abandon its God-given gift of oil and gas.
As for cutting emissions, the whole idea has had to take a back seat to this unseemly scrabble for money.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/11/23/cop29-on-verge-of-collapse/
OBSERVATION - It has never been about global warming, it has alway been about redistribution of wealth and the harming of first world countries.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston walked back comments he made earlier in the week about using authorities to stop mass deportations that have been promised under President-elect Donald Trump. He also said he was willing to be jailed if necessary.
OBSERVATION - They say what they have planned, and this ‘walk back’ is nothing more than a whoops in exposing that plan prematurely .
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
General warning to be alert this Thanksgiving - Christmas season. Besides the Macy’s threat, all other holiday events are susceptible to protests and even violence.
I’m putting this out there now - Hanukkah - will attract the pro-hamas crowd like moths to a light and with less than seasonal charity on their black hearts. Violent protests very likely at celebrations in major cities across the country.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
We are seeing the RINOs entrenching themselves in the Senate with 4 of them going as far as openly siding with the democrats on most issues.
Illegal Immigration –
The NFL has issued a security alert to players, warning of a transnational crime ring targeting the homes of professional athletes, including NFL and NBA players, according to a report by NFL Network.
The alert follows recent burglaries at the homes of Kansas City Chiefs stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, which occurred just hours apart on the same evening.
OBSERVATION - Similar crime syndicates have developed targeting other rich individuals. In some ways referred to as a ‘tourist’ crime spree. Groups fly in from central and south america, conduct numerous home robberies of the rich and then flee back their home countries with the wealth obtained from those robberies.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumint. The Financial Times:
Hundreds of Yemeni fighters were sent by the Houthis to Russia and are participating in the war in Ukraine, apparently in exchange for Russia’s security assistance to the Houthis. Yemenis recruited by the Russian army said that in return they were promised high salaries and even Russian citizenship
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported a drone attack overnight.
Out of 73 drones launched, 69 were taken down (50 by air defense and 19 by electronic warfare). Four UAVs are still active on Ukrainian territory.
Russian losses per 24/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1020 men
+4 tanks
+17 AFVs
+5 artillery pieces
NOTE - These numbers are the lowest in months!
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Kursk.
Summary —
The world is still reacting (I’d say overreacting) to the Russia IBM shot into Ukraine. Russia has been successful in overstating this missile. This is almost to the extent of eclipsing the notorious “SATAN” ICBM. It seems to have put a degree of deterrence in Ukraine’s uses of western systems for deep strikes into Russia.
Not totally, France yesterday gave a very open declaration granting Ukraine permission to use its cruise missiles for deep, russian strikes.
May be seeing impacts of the worsening weather conditions in Ukraine. Reported Russian losses are at their lowest in several month - during a time when that was the average loss. This probably reflects fewer and smaller size attacks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Unconfirmed reports that Hamas has killed another hostage
- IDF makes significant gains in SW and eastern Lebanon border regions.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas says a female hostage has been killed during Israeli operations in northern Gaza. The woman’s identity was not revealed, and it was unclear how or when she is said to have died. “This evening the terrorist organization Hamas released a document in which a kidnapped woman is allegedly seen killed,” the IDF said in a statement. “We are checking the information, and at this stage, we are unable to verify or refute it.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Continued low activity
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Naqoura in the Tyre district in southwestern Lebanon.
***
Hezbollah is launching more rockets than usual today
This morning, six long range missiles were fired from Lebanon toward the Tel Aviv area. The IDF reports that five were intercepted, while one landed in an open area.
Hezbollah has already launched 18 rocket and missile attacks this morning. Rockets are now incoming toward Kiryat Shmona.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
4 missile strikes target the Josieh border crossing near the city of Qusayr, and the Lebanese Minister of Public Works, Ali Hamieh, confirms in a statement that the Israeli targeting of the crossing came within Syrian territory
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi attacked a Turkish flagged ship twice in 24 hours. Turkey was not pleased about the attack and may send warships to the region to protect its shipping interests.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Body of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad Israeli-Moldovan living in Abu Dhabi, has been discovered by Authorities in the United Arab Emirates
***
Jordanian Media is reporting that 3 security officers were Injured and a terrorist was killed, following a firefight that occurred near the Israeli Embassy in Amman. According to Jordanian sources, Jordanian security forces and police are looking for two people who fled after shooting at the Jordanian embassy.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
IAF airstrike tempo has decreased a little bit, but still hammering Hezbollah neighborhoods in S Beirut and Tyre.
In SW Lebanon, IDF is closing the pocket it created trapping Hezbollah forces and flanking the second defensive line. The action noted above at Naqoura, represents a third lateral advance of the IDF in the region.
At the eastern end of the Israeli/Lebanon border, IDF is also pushing deeper and faster. Growing possibility that they will have encircled another region of Hezbollah forces there as well.
In the central front region, IDF continues to pressure Hezbollah, freezing them in place and preventing then from reinforcing their flanks.
It is still amazing to me the effectiveness of Israel’s operational plans to virtually neutralize the massive rocket/missile stockpile and threat that Hezbollah had. Much success based on the months of IAF targeting the forward ammo dumps, supplies and command during the first part of the war. Then upon the start of ground war smashing Hezbollah facilities in Beirut and Tyre. Now Hezbollah can only manage ‘barrages’ of a dozen or fewer rockets several times a day. Israeli planning had anticipated attacks by hundreds of rockets daily.
The fight in Gaza has decreased significantly over the past month as Hamas influence and attempts to regroup have been smashed. At this stage, Hamas poses very little threat to Israel. Their rocket threat is gone, so too the terror attack threat is gone.
Little commented on, but important is that Hamas affiliated groups in the West Bank have lowered their level of activity as well. Israel security forces continue to launch raids to arrest terrorist leaders and cells, but those efforts have gone down.
Iran looks to focus more on smaller scale clandestine attacks on Jews world wide versus the next missile attack. Russia is not much help restoring Iranian missile defenses already facing shortages in its fight in Ukraine. Iran will be virtually defenseless for a considerable time and ill advise to get froggy with an Israel that is anticipating the support by the Trump administration.
Growing concern that Iran may be going forward with the development of a nuke. Russia in its efforts to divert western attention from Ukraine and growing its relationship with Iran may well be giving advice on warhead design and creation. This aid would greatly accelerate the creation of a warhead that could be fitted on one of their ballistic missiles, cutting months/years off development work. It is likely for this reason that Iran is backing away from its missile strike plans, because they know full well that Israel has Trump’s full blessings to take out those nuclear facilities necessary for weapons development.
Iran –
Report in Iran: 5,000 additional new and advanced centrifuges were activated at the nuclear facilities in response to the decision condemning Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency
Misc of Note –
Second only to Columbus Day, Thanksgiving is a hated holiday by the woke leftists because it represents the ‘colonization’ of the US and is thereby evil by definition. Whether what I’ve seen in the local Wallyworld reflects this sentiment or not, it is clear that their sales campaign essentially skipped over stocking for the Thanksgiving season. They went straight from Halloween to Christmas with only minimal Thanksgiving related stockage. Is the message/effort here to minimize Thanksgiving?
On a lighter side, I still encourage as many as possible to get their Ham license - at least up to the General level. The past few days have been fun, thanks to the current solar cycle. Yesterday alone I made a 10m contact with a gentleman near Atlanta GA - my farthest yet. Early evening yesterday I picked up a good signal on the 10m band from a gentleman in S Korea conversing with someone in the Bay area. I was unfortunately unable to contact him.
The reason for my encouragement is the fact that if things go sideways, information outside your local sphere of influence will be critical. Even without getting a license, getting the equipment or even purchasing and learning how to use a short wave radio (with side band capability ) would be invaluable.
Besides the commonly encouraged beans, bullets, bandaids and bug-out many hear on prep sites and sources, your preparations should be broader and include communications aspects. Knowledge is power and knowing what is happening around you may save you and your family/friends lives.