Moving into Thanksgiving week, we at least can be thankful for a pause in the chaos. But I almost hate to say it - we can’t let our guard down. The left and all their minions are talking nicey - nice but behind the curtain they are talking another tune. Please, take the time to be thankful with family - that is the most important thing we can do, especially if / when the wheels come off next year.
Globalism / Great Reset –
For years successive COPs have papered over the cracks, but the cracks have now become unbridgeable chasms.
The West wants the world to give up fossil fuels. The developing countries want money, lots of it that the West can’t afford.
So far at Baku, the West has promised to pony up $250bn a year by 2035 in climate aid. But when inflation is taken into account, this is barely more than the $100bn agreed at Copenhagen in 2008. The third world wanted $1.3 trillion.
China still refuses to pay a cent, and Azerbaijan has made it clear that it will not abandon its God-given gift of oil and gas.
As for cutting emissions, the whole idea has had to take a back seat to this unseemly scrabble for money.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/11/23/cop29-on-verge-of-collapse/
OBSERVATION - It has never been about global warming, it has alway been about redistribution of wealth and the harming of first world countries.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston walked back comments he made earlier in the week about using authorities to stop mass deportations that have been promised under President-elect Donald Trump. He also said he was willing to be jailed if necessary.
OBSERVATION - They say what they have planned, and this ‘walk back’ is nothing more than a whoops in exposing that plan prematurely .
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
General warning to be alert this Thanksgiving - Christmas season. Besides the Macy’s threat, all other holiday events are susceptible to protests and even violence.
I’m putting this out there now - Hanukkah - will attract the pro-hamas crowd like moths to a light and with less than seasonal charity on their black hearts. Violent protests very likely at celebrations in major cities across the country.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
We are seeing the RINOs entrenching themselves in the Senate with 4 of them going as far as openly siding with the democrats on most issues.
Illegal Immigration –
The NFL has issued a security alert to players, warning of a transnational crime ring targeting the homes of professional athletes, including NFL and NBA players, according to a report by NFL Network.
The alert follows recent burglaries at the homes of Kansas City Chiefs stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, which occurred just hours apart on the same evening.
OBSERVATION - Similar crime syndicates have developed targeting other rich individuals. In some ways referred to as a ‘tourist’ crime spree. Groups fly in from central and south america, conduct numerous home robberies of the rich and then flee back their home countries with the wealth obtained from those robberies.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumint. The Financial Times:
Hundreds of Yemeni fighters were sent by the Houthis to Russia and are participating in the war in Ukraine, apparently in exchange for Russia’s security assistance to the Houthis. Yemenis recruited by the Russian army said that in return they were promised high salaries and even Russian citizenship
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported a drone attack overnight.
Out of 73 drones launched, 69 were taken down (50 by air defense and 19 by electronic warfare). Four UAVs are still active on Ukrainian territory.
Russian losses per 24/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1020 men
+4 tanks
+17 AFVs
+5 artillery pieces
NOTE - These numbers are the lowest in months!
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Kursk.
Summary —
The world is still reacting (I’d say overreacting) to the Russia IBM shot into Ukraine. Russia has been successful in overstating this missile. This is almost to the extent of eclipsing the notorious “SATAN” ICBM. It seems to have put a degree of deterrence in Ukraine’s uses of western systems for deep strikes into Russia.
Not totally, France yesterday gave a very open declaration granting Ukraine permission to use its cruise missiles for deep, russian strikes.
May be seeing impacts of the worsening weather conditions in Ukraine. Reported Russian losses are at their lowest in several month - during a time when that was the average loss. This probably reflects fewer and smaller size attacks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Unconfirmed reports that Hamas has killed another hostage
- IDF makes significant gains in SW and eastern Lebanon border regions.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas says a female hostage has been killed during Israeli operations in northern Gaza. The woman’s identity was not revealed, and it was unclear how or when she is said to have died. “This evening the terrorist organization Hamas released a document in which a kidnapped woman is allegedly seen killed,” the IDF said in a statement. “We are checking the information, and at this stage, we are unable to verify or refute it.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Continued low activity
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Naqoura in the Tyre district in southwestern Lebanon.
***
Hezbollah is launching more rockets than usual today
This morning, six long range missiles were fired from Lebanon toward the Tel Aviv area. The IDF reports that five were intercepted, while one landed in an open area.
Hezbollah has already launched 18 rocket and missile attacks this morning. Rockets are now incoming toward Kiryat Shmona.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
4 missile strikes target the Josieh border crossing near the city of Qusayr, and the Lebanese Minister of Public Works, Ali Hamieh, confirms in a statement that the Israeli targeting of the crossing came within Syrian territory
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi attacked a Turkish flagged ship twice in 24 hours. Turkey was not pleased about the attack and may send warships to the region to protect its shipping interests.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Body of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad Israeli-Moldovan living in Abu Dhabi, has been discovered by Authorities in the United Arab Emirates
***
Jordanian Media is reporting that 3 security officers were Injured and a terrorist was killed, following a firefight that occurred near the Israeli Embassy in Amman. According to Jordanian sources, Jordanian security forces and police are looking for two people who fled after shooting at the Jordanian embassy.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
IAF airstrike tempo has decreased a little bit, but still hammering Hezbollah neighborhoods in S Beirut and Tyre.
In SW Lebanon, IDF is closing the pocket it created trapping Hezbollah forces and flanking the second defensive line. The action noted above at Naqoura, represents a third lateral advance of the IDF in the region.
At the eastern end of the Israeli/Lebanon border, IDF is also pushing deeper and faster. Growing possibility that they will have encircled another region of Hezbollah forces there as well.
In the central front region, IDF continues to pressure Hezbollah, freezing them in place and preventing then from reinforcing their flanks.
It is still amazing to me the effectiveness of Israel’s operational plans to virtually neutralize the massive rocket/missile stockpile and threat that Hezbollah had. Much success based on the months of IAF targeting the forward ammo dumps, supplies and command during the first part of the war. Then upon the start of ground war smashing Hezbollah facilities in Beirut and Tyre. Now Hezbollah can only manage ‘barrages’ of a dozen or fewer rockets several times a day. Israeli planning had anticipated attacks by hundreds of rockets daily.
The fight in Gaza has decreased significantly over the past month as Hamas influence and attempts to regroup have been smashed. At this stage, Hamas poses very little threat to Israel. Their rocket threat is gone, so too the terror attack threat is gone.
Little commented on, but important is that Hamas affiliated groups in the West Bank have lowered their level of activity as well. Israel security forces continue to launch raids to arrest terrorist leaders and cells, but those efforts have gone down.
Iran looks to focus more on smaller scale clandestine attacks on Jews world wide versus the next missile attack. Russia is not much help restoring Iranian missile defenses already facing shortages in its fight in Ukraine. Iran will be virtually defenseless for a considerable time and ill advise to get froggy with an Israel that is anticipating the support by the Trump administration.
Growing concern that Iran may be going forward with the development of a nuke. Russia in its efforts to divert western attention from Ukraine and growing its relationship with Iran may well be giving advice on warhead design and creation. This aid would greatly accelerate the creation of a warhead that could be fitted on one of their ballistic missiles, cutting months/years off development work. It is likely for this reason that Iran is backing away from its missile strike plans, because they know full well that Israel has Trump’s full blessings to take out those nuclear facilities necessary for weapons development.
Iran –
Report in Iran: 5,000 additional new and advanced centrifuges were activated at the nuclear facilities in response to the decision condemning Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency
Misc of Note –
Second only to Columbus Day, Thanksgiving is a hated holiday by the woke leftists because it represents the ‘colonization’ of the US and is thereby evil by definition. Whether what I’ve seen in the local Wallyworld reflects this sentiment or not, it is clear that their sales campaign essentially skipped over stocking for the Thanksgiving season. They went straight from Halloween to Christmas with only minimal Thanksgiving related stockage. Is the message/effort here to minimize Thanksgiving?
On a lighter side, I still encourage as many as possible to get their Ham license - at least up to the General level. The past few days have been fun, thanks to the current solar cycle. Yesterday alone I made a 10m contact with a gentleman near Atlanta GA - my farthest yet. Early evening yesterday I picked up a good signal on the 10m band from a gentleman in S Korea conversing with someone in the Bay area. I was unfortunately unable to contact him.
The reason for my encouragement is the fact that if things go sideways, information outside your local sphere of influence will be critical. Even without getting a license, getting the equipment or even purchasing and learning how to use a short wave radio (with side band capability ) would be invaluable.
Besides the commonly encouraged beans, bullets, bandaids and bug-out many hear on prep sites and sources, your preparations should be broader and include communications aspects. Knowledge is power and knowing what is happening around you may save you and your family/friends lives.
Excellent prepper advice at the end of this update.
Thanks
Best recommendation for 'listen only' type SW system?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy has sidelined 17 ships in an effort to address workforce shortages and alleviate the strain on overburdened mariners, according to U.S. Naval Institute (USNI) News.
Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro approved the initiative Oct. 30, hoping it would ease stress on the Navy’s seagoing workforce while bolstering the Military Sealift Command’s (MSC) ability to provide logistical support for global fleet operations, according to a U.S. Navy press release. The shortages have stretched mariners thin, forcing them to shoulder additional responsibilities, the USNI reported.
OBSERVATION - Wars are eventually won due to logistics. This is a serious situation where our forward deployed elements cannot count on receiving supplies in a timely manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
Initial ruffles from Trumps initial cabinet picks are transitioning into reality for those ‘supportive’ senators with the rubber soon to hit the road.
***
(FO) Democratic lawmakers said they are alarmed that the Trump transition team has not signed memorandums of understanding to coordinate the transition with federal agencies. A Republican official familiar with the Trump transition efforts said the Trump transition team does not “need the hassle” of signing the memos, which would open the transition team up to the General Services Administration “and quasi-public organizations whose sole mission will probably be to derail them.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
Anyone seen a president and/or VP lately?
China –
(FO) The U.S. and Japan plan to deploy U.S. forces with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in Japan’s southwestern islands and the Philippines in the event the Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force, according to anonymous Japanese sources.
Forward Observer assessment - Why It Matters: The Early Warning team has long warned that the Chinese would need to seize the Japanese Nansei and Filipino Batanes islands in order to effectively blockade Taiwan. The U.S., Japan, and Philippines appear to be prepared to make that significantly harder to do without immediately bringing all three powers into China’s “internal” war with Taiwan. The threat of a wider war outside of China’s control is key to preventing China from starting the war over Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
(FO) North Korea is expanding the Ryongsong Machine Complex, a key weapons manufacturing complex in Hamhung that assembles the Hwasong-11-class of solid-fuel ballistic missiles (aka KN-23), according to satellite images and statements from North Korea’s state news agency KCNA.
The KN-23 is designed to evade missile defenses by flying at a lower trajectory than most ballistic missiles. Missile debris indicates that Russia is increasing its use of the KN-23, which accounts for nearly one in three missiles fired so far in 2024.
Ukrainian defense officials claim the missiles can be traced to the Ryongsong Machine Complex and rely heavily on American and European components, 70% of which are American. Weapons-tracing experts have been able to trace some of the components back to Chinese companies. See Russia below.
Russia -
Logistics –
North Korean KN-23/KN-24 ballistic missiles used by Russia contain foreign parts made in 2023. These missiles, supplied by North Korea, include components from China, the US, Japan, the UK, and Switzerland, Ukrainian intelligence reports. Russia reportedly received about 100 of them.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s annual inflation rate came in at 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target of 4%. It prompted the bank last month to raise interest rates to 21% — their highest level in over 20 years — and a further hike is expected in December.
High interest rates have shown few signs of dampening price growth so far, with food inflation in particular keenly felt by shoppers. Dairy products, sunflower oil and vegetables (especially potatoes, with prices up 74% since December last year) are among the items seeing ongoing upticks in price, according to weekly data from statistics service Rosstat, as demand outstrips supply.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/25/russias-inflation-is-so-bad-that-people-are-stealing-butter.html
OBSERVATION - Russia trying to run a war on a pseudo war economy. Wobbly economic conditions beginning to place a chain on the Ukraine war effort.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian defense forces have attacked Russian facilities in Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk regions of Russia, including oil depot in Kaluga region (setting it on fire). Khalino military airfield in the Kursk Region was reportedly hit by 7 ATACMS missiles and 12 UAVs .
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight.
Out of 145 launched, 71 were shot down by regular air defense and another 71 were lost on Ukrainian territory due to suppression by electronic warfare. One more drone flew back to Belarus.
Russia launched a missile attack on Odesa, causing casualties and damage, the Regional Administration confirms. Residential buildings and civilian infrastructure have been damaged.
Russian losses per 25/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1610 men
+6 tanks
+27 AFVs
+22 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian military planners have reportedly found flaws in the Ukraine defensive lines south of Pokrovsk and are attempting to develop an operation to exploit the situation.
Summary —
Russia’s MIRV ballistic missile strike seems to have thrown cold water on Ukraine’s use of western long range weapons for the moment. ATACMS targets seem relatively ‘tame’ compared to the first ones, possibly designed not to provoke another Russian MIRV strike. OTOH, there may be greater emphasis on identifying and targeting much more significant targets as well. To be seen
Fighting tempo returned across Donbas with Russia focusing even more on the section of the front south of Pokrovsk. It is this axis that Russia has seen the most success in their ground efforts. Russia has little time to exploit this area as winter is setting in. Worst, it is leading into a lowland region that goes into essentially swamp mode when the wet season comes on. Russia faces the danger of literally being bogged down unless they can push thru it quickly enough.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More discussion on a Lebanese cease fire agreement.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
A framework agreement to end the Lebanon- Israel war has been achieved. Sources in Lebanon, the United States, and Israel confirm that Israel has given the green light, subject to a final decision by the cabinet, to sign the agreement with Lebanon. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein informed Lebanese officials of this decision this evening.
The proposed 60-day pause in fighting holds the potential to pave the way for a long-term truce. U.S. Envoy Amos Hochstein, mediating the talks, stated that if Israel did not respond positively in the coming days to the ceasefire proposal, he would withdraw from the mediation efforts.
Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir is against a deal to end the war with Lebanon and demands a “complete victory” on Hezbollah
***
The United Arab Emirates reports the capturing of three suspects in the kidnapping and murder of 28 years old Rabbi Tzvi Kogan in recent days.
The Iranian Embassy in the United Arab Emirates has issued a “Categorical Denial” of the Allegations that they had anything to do with the Murder and Kidnapping of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad Israeli-Moldovan living in Abu Dhabi.
More recent info seems to support Iran’s claim, UAE now saying the assassin team may have been working for Hamas or other sub terror element.
NOTE - a very thin line of separation, an Iranian supported terror group.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A very busy day for Hezbollah. Hezbollah launched over 250 rockets and missiles yesterday over the course of 45 attacks that generated a total of 541 rocket alerts. The only day with more alerts was immediately after Nasrallah’s elimination.
IAF in the SW corner of Lebanon have now successfully split that pocket into three smaller pockets and are closing in on remaining Hezbollah forces.
Heavy airstrikes continue to hammer S Beirut and Tyre
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
At the top of the list is the potential ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. The US is putting a lot of pressure on Israel to accept it, but the US proposal doesn’t have Israel’s best interests in mind. In fact, some components are very favorable towards Hezbollah.
Israel is fully aware of the history of such ‘cease fire’ agreements and the islamic practice of using them to regroup and then attack again. The ‘ol Lucy and the football scenario. Israel is not getting any guarantees that Hezbollah will disarm and pull north of the Litani River, nor any greater disarmament and prevention of future rearming. Israel is seeing growing success on the ground in S Lebanon as well as massive destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure and command in S Beirut and Tyre. This success could be endangered with a premature cease fire.
The decline in Hezbollah’s military capabilities is demonstrated in yesterday’s rocket attacks. Some (ignorantly IMHO) point to the attacks as evidence that Israel is failing to effectively take the war to Hezbollah. Lets look at the numbers…….
250 rockets - ONLY 250 rockets out of an initial supply of some 150,000 rockets at the star of the conflict. For ONE day. Daily rockets have been often less than 10% of that 250 for the past many months.
Second - the increase in IDFs ground gains in S Lebanon. Israel isn’t rushing forward like it did in 2006 and getting eaten up by ATGM traps, but being more methodical and taking time to clear strongholds and then blow them up to prevent reoccupation by Hezbollah. The movement on the ground is accelerating because Hezbollah defenses, and numbers of fighters are being breached and depleted.
FINALLY, Hezbollah has not been able to establish an effective command and control network to replace not only their senior leadership, but the degradation of coms to the fighters on the ground in the south. Hezbollah replacement leaders get taken out just about as soon as they are announced to be the successors to those positions.
Gaza Is moving more and more into end game conditions. Hamas resistance is nearly completely reduced to nothing effective.
Iran continues some threats concerning a retaliatory missile strike. They may be rethinking the political equation here in the US and as a result may be thinking that such a strike could be ‘gotten’ away with before Jan 20. A potentially disturbing thought would be an attack over the observance of Hanukkah.
At present, a far more active threat developing are Iranian terror teams striking Israeli and related organizations over the next few months - a potential alternative way of avenging the regime for the Israeli October strikes.