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CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

A far-left radical who has online posts suggesting support for Antifa extremism was outed by internet sleuths as a Secret Service agent. He deleted his account “endon40” after his identity and name was posted.

The Secret Service agent is a fan of Portland Antifa propagandist and disinfo influencer Robert Evans. He posts regularly on Evans’ subreddit. The agent says he feels dejected about the incoming Trump administration and would like to go work for the ACLU or SPLC.

One of the SPLC’s staffers in Atlanta is a suspect in a RICO and domestic terrorism case involving violent attacks by Antifa-linked extremists.

30- year-old Thomas Jack “J” Hamil - an 1811 employee for the Department of Homeland Security reportedly is the individual. He reportedly has about six years of experience and is in Phase 2 of his career is assigned to Vice President Kamala Harris’s protective detail.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1857561514338824420?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

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Democrat from North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel openly proposes a SHADOW CABINET.

He pleads with Democrats to challenge every lawful order and policy from Trump and his cabinet.

He even goes as far as to give a list of potential picks for a SHADOW CABINET:

•Senator-elect Adam Schiff, D-Calif. – Shadow Attorney General
•Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash. – Shadow Defense Secretary
•Rep. Suzan Delbene, D-Wash. – Shadow Commerce Secretary
•Rep. Rosa Delauro, D-Conn. – Shadow Health and Human Services Secretary
•Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn. – Education Secretary
•Rep. Gregory W. Meeks, D-N.Y. – Shadow Secretary of State
•Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo. – Shadow Treasury Secretary
•Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. – Shadow Veterans Affairs Secretary
•Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla. – Shadow Environmental Protection Agency administrator

OBSERVATION - These words are approaching insurrection levels. The course of some of his speech indicate that the leaders of the shadow positions will take the lead in opposing the respective portions of the Trump agenda in congress and in the public sphere of discourse.

The call for a shadow cabinet indicates that the core elements of the progressive left are not thru with their quest to retain power but willing to continue to burn it down if they can’t rule.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Pentagon has just failed its 7th audit and says it cannot account for what its $824B budget is spent on.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

Should be buzzing on the talk shows today with the recent picks for Trump’s cabinet on the agendas.

Fingers are now being pointed at pelosi in the dust down over who should be blamed for the election fiasco.

Biden / Harris Watch –

For the group photo at the APEC Summit, biden was relocated to the second tier country row - away from the prominent front and center positions common for a US president.

Illegal Immigration –

Rumors that human traffickers are attempting to move more illegals into the US before Trump takes over and they revenue source runs dry.

China –

President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Lima, Peru, during the APEC Summit. Biden raised concerns over Chinese support for Russia’s Military Activities, including aid from North Korea, and emphasized maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. He also criticized China’s actions in the South China Sea.

Xi also said he would ‘work’ with Trump.

Russia -

Logistics –

(ISW). Russian forces are innovating their long-range strike packages to include decoy Shahed drones and Shahed drones with thermobaric warheads, likely to confuse and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses and increase the damages of long-range strikes.

The Ukrainian military and electronics expert stated that the thermobaric drones, which Russian forces began fielding in Summer 2024, account for between three and five percent of the long-range strike drones Russia has been launching at Ukraine recently.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russian channels are currently reporting that a large-scale leadership purge is underway within Russia’s 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army.

Per reports, the command staff of the 3rd CAA has been fired, and the commanders of the 7th and 123rd Brigades have been arrested. Commanders were reportedly arrested due to “deceiving senior commanders in terms of taking lines that are in fact still under enemy control”

The 3rd CAA is primarily engaged in Donetsk and southern Luhansk Oblasts.

More reports coming in, appears that a massive purge of Russian army leadership is ongoing within the 3rd Combined Arms Army:

-3rd CAA commanding general fired
-Entire 3rd CAA command staff fired
-6th and 7th Brigade commanders arrested
-123rd Brigade commander on the run

OBSERVATION - May be RUMINT, however, Russia has conducted similar purges in the past.

Economic Impact –

The Biden administration is considering adding Russia’s Gazprombank to its sanctions list. As the 3rd largest bank in Russia, it plays a key role in gas settlements between Russia and Europe. The move, expected by the end of November, would prohibit Gazprom from any transactions with American banks.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1857853743942803746?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine, hitting the capital Kyiv as well as multiple targets in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lviv and Odesa regions.

Attacks were primarily aimed at energy infrastructure. Kryvyi Rih there was a serious hit to an energy infrastructure target. In the city, there are emergency shutdowns. Water and heat supply is broken.

Russia used its full range of assets in the attack -

- Russian Navy vessels launched Kaliber cruise missiles

- 15 Tu-95MS bombers noted airborne from Olenya and Engels airfields in Russia

- Tu-22 bombers released Kh-22 missiles

- Mig-31K aircraft launched Kinzhal missiles

The Ukrainian Air Force released official numbers from the massive Russian combined missile and drone attack last night and early morning.

Shot down:
1/1 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile
7/8 Kh-47M Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
85/101 Kalibr/Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
4/4 Kh-22/Kh-31P cruise/anti-radar missiles
5/5 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
42/90 Shahed drones and other types

As a result of active electronic warfare, another 41 drones were supressed and landed on Ukrainian territory. Two more flew back to Russia and/or occupied territories.

Russia continues to sustain very high personnel and equipment losses in combat Russian losses per 17/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1640 men
+12 tanks
+27 AFVs
+36 artillery systems

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russia continues to fail to make any significant gains in their counter offensive.

Russian Territory –

Ukraine drones reportedly hit Kupol plant in Izhevsk, producing missiles for air defense systems

Summary —

I almost hate being right in warning that Russia was soon to launch a missile/drone assault as done overnight. I do not think they are done either, as previous major attacks like this had several other waves of attacks before things settled down to a ‘normal’ attack range.

Ukraine’s power/heat grid was already in bad shape from last winter’s attacks. It doesn’t take much for follow on attacks to cause power and heat losses. For those of you unfamiliar with the heat loss component, many European cities have centralized heating system, with a large hot water boiler plant and underground piping taking the heated water to building throughout a district. Affected me when I was stationed in Germany.

High personnel and equipment losses continue with Russia eeking out small gains. Weather starting to turn and will further hamper offensive operations until temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground solid - but then those temperatures have other impacts on soldiers.

Poland –

Polish Air Force F-16s, along with other allied aircraft, were scrambled overnight in response to Russia’s missile attack on Ukraine.
The Polish air defense network was also ordered to the “highest state of readiness.”

Russian cruise missiles reportedly entered Lviv Oblast, bordering Poland.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu’s home attacked

- IDF makes gains in SW Lebanon.

- Questions over the health of Khamenei (see Iran below)

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Two flares were fired at Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea by progressive left protesters. The Prime Minister and his family were not there.

3 Suspects have been arrested by Israeli Police and Shin Bet agents for the attack .

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah confirms IDF ground and armored forces were spotted in the village of Shema, southern Lebanon, marking the first official acknowledgment.

The Lebanese army evacuated their brigade from Al Bayada, creating a path for the IDF to advance through Shaama (Shema).

Below is a link to a map that presents the approximate penetration of the IDF in the western area. Note yellow road that could provide a high speed axis of advance to the Med Sea

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GchsW24aMAULAUt.jpg

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Israeli raid targets Baath Party office in downtown Beirut. S Beirut also faced another day of IAF air strikes targeting Hezbollah buildings and facilities.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Watching Iran for any confirmation of the health status of Khamenei. If he is incapacitated, then Iran’s way forward may be in for some significant changes. I don’t know if his son will continue his polices or start charting a new course. One aspect would be a change in the policy against the development of nuclear weapons - established by Fatwa by Khamenei. IRGC have prepared everything up to the final enrichment and design/construction of a warhead. Khamenei’s son may have more trust in nukes than Khamenei did in allah.

Hezbollah is losing critical ground in SW Lebanon (see link above) and its forces in that corner of the country are facing being cut off and defeated. Such a maneuver by Israel would permit them to attack Hezbollah defenses from the back side - a side never intended in being used for defense and open for exploitation.

Any reinforcements would be hard pressed to come to their aid because IDF would keep the pressure on other sectors of the front and would jump at any weakening of the Hezbollah units to rescue those trapped.

However, not guaranteed that his is what the IDF has planned - so developing.

In Gaza, Hamas and affiliated continue to be pressured by IDF in the north. If reports are correct, Israel is soon to be ready to declare N Gaza a military district and then direct its efforts towards the south.

The “Resistance” is still around and manage to pop off a few drones or missiles on a daily basis, but is not any really big threat. Rumors of the transfer of hundreds of rockets to Iraqi based militias are still floating around, but I think that any large scale use will bring Iraqi and US/coalitions attacks to bear.

Finally, the attack on Netanyahu’s home is a reflection of the Israeli leftists continued anger at the firing of Gallant from defense minister. 0bama and biden have supported the left over Netanyahu and caused considerable political chaos in the nation. The war effort has granted Netanyahu a great deal of support so the leftist rage is more concentrated in the hard core elements.

Iran –

RUMINT - Overnight significant rumors that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, at the age of 85, has fallen into a coma. Before doing so appointed his son to be his replacement (see below)

Later RUMINT out there is that Khamenei is dead.

OBSERVATION - Khamenei was rumored to have terminal cancer a couple of months or so ago. Tight secrecy of his health is likely to represent efforts to keep opposite in the dark and prevent potential protests/riots over his successor. If dead, much of the dynamics of the region may well be turned on their head.

RELATED -
Iran International television station reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the critically ill Ali Khamenei, will lead the country after his death and possibly even during his lifetime.
The report claims that Iran’s Assembly of Experts convened on September 26 for an unusual discussion conducted under complete secrecy, following the personal request of the Supreme Leader. The assembly included approximately 60 council members, who were urgently summoned without any prior warning.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399277

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Iran’s Foreign Minister: If they issue a resolution against Iran at the IAEA Board of Governors, we will reciprocate by implementing new measures in our nuclear program that will not be liked by them

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Iran denies the WSJ claim and say revenge on Trump for killing Soleimani is NOT off the table

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The Financial Times: Trump’s team plans to unveil a new ‘maximum pressure’ strategy designed to financially bankrupt Iran.

Heck of a way to start Monday. Yesterday, biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS against deep targets in Russia. Germany and Britain quickly followed suit with their stealthy cruise missiles. We could be on the brink of the use of nukes by Russia and WW3.
Now we will see if Putin was bluffing or not.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Scrutiny has intensified over the World Bank’s handling of climate funds, with a recent report by Oxfam revealing that between $24 billion and $41 billion in climate finance disbursed by the Bank over the past seven years remains unaccounted for.

This staggering amount, equivalent to nearly 40% of all climate funds disbursed by the Bank during this period, raises serious questions about transparency and accountability.

https://expose-news.com/2024/11/17/scrutiny-of-world-bank-intensifies/

OBSERVATION - This should come as a shock to no one. Globalist bureaucrats in charge skimming the money off to go into their pockets.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

A lot of rumblings yesterday as a group called Sedition Hunters on “X” began to delete their accounts and go dark. While many of these ‘hunters’ were anonymous, some openly operated. Their stated purpose was to identify and report J6 participants to the FBI for prosecution. Apparently for their efforts, the FBI paid them One hunter - Terry Metes “dumped her … FBI handler” and is concerned she won’t be paid on 220 “backlogged” J6er identifications ($55,000-$110,000).

Many see the disbanding of the ‘hunters’ as a move to protect their identification as Trump moves into the WH and has set a goal of defending the J6 participants. These “hunters” are nothing more than modern Stazi collaborators

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th

Donald Trump’s MAGA faithful were outraged after it was leaked that Mitch McConnell hatched a plot to stall his Cabinet nominations in the Senate.
The backlash began after a now-deleted tweet from New Yorker staff writer Jane Mayer claimed McConnell told colleagues ‘there will be no recess appointments’ for the president-elect’s cabinet members.
‘Message to Trump Team: “There will be no recess appointments” Sen. Mitch McConnell said tonight at a Washington gathering,’ Mayer wrote on X at around 8 pm Sunday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14094959/MAGA-world-outraged-Mitch-McConnell-secret-plot-derail-Trump.html

OBSERVATION - The democrats are having a civil war of their own, but the establishment (RINOs) republicans are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Thus far, Thune has backed trumps’ nominees but as an underling to McConnell we may soon see just how sincere he is.

Biden / Harris Watch –

President Biden has given the OK to lift restrictions that will allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Sunday.

OBSERVATION - Less than 2 months left in his term and biden has been going into overdrive to get munitions to Ukraine and now this. NOTE Britain and Germany have followed suit with their cruise missiles. Question is will putin blink again. He has laid out many red lines that Ukraine has crossed, but this one seems to be pretty hard set. Use of any nuke by Russia will likely set up counter responses by the west.

Tied to this is Russia’s introduction of about 10K North Korean forces that maybe increasing by another 100K in the near future. This is one of the justifications used by biden et al for the freeing of ATACM use.

OBSERVATION - biden knows one of Trump’s key foreign policy efforts will be to end the war in Ukraine. Many can see that this as well as announcements to push as much aid as possible before Jan 20 as efforts to derail his promises to get fighting to end. But to actually push the envelope of potential nuclear war is way outside the envelope.

Illegal Immigration –

Word coming out that Trump has decided to declare a national emergency to facilitate the deportation of millions of illegals. This is not totally unexpected as he said as much during the campaign.

North/South Korea –

North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.

Russia -

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Kremlin’s spokesperson: The option of freezing the war in Ukraine along the line of control is unacceptable for Russia

NUCLEAR THREATS –

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the US has sparked a furious response in Russia.
“Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences,” declared the website of the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Monday morning.

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, head of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, predicted that the decision would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.

Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called it “an unprecedented step towards World War Three”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5l1220zxo

Warning from Sep 2024 -

Putin: “We will use NUCLEAR weapons if a mass enemy missile or UAV is launched towards Russia, or when these weapons cross into Russian territory”. This footage is from September 2024, warning Western countries against striking Russia directly.

OBSERVATION - Here is putin’s line in the sand that could trigger a nuclear response from a couple months ago when allowing Ukraine use of these weapons started to increase -

“A new nuclear doctrine would “clearly set the conditions for Russia to transition to using nuclear weapons,” he warned – and said such scenarios included conventional missile strikes against Moscow.

He said that Russia would consider such a “possibility” of using nuclear weapons if it detected the start of a massive launch of missiles, aircraft and drones into its territory, which presented a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.
He added: “It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”

RUMINT-

North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian regions, including the Moscow region, were under drone attacks overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it shot down 59 UAVs across various regions.

Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones. Substantially fewer numbers than previous.

Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
8/11 Shahed drones
3 more Shahed drones were suppressed by electronic warfare and were lost on Ukrainian territory.
Odesa was hit by ballistic missiles not noted above.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novooleksiivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukraine announces nationwide power ‘restrictions’ Monday after major Russian attack

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Minor gains along the line south of Pokrovsk.

Summary —

Escalation is the word for today. There is no reported requirement for US/British/ German target approval either. The area in Russia is target rich, some 100+ strategic sites from airfields, troop concentrations, command centers, etc. One target likely high on the list is the Kerch Bridge, once considered one of the forbidden ‘russian’ targets.

Contrary to Russian claims, these weapons systems are virtually untouchable by ADA systems. So they will be able to do considerable damage, though relatively few in number.

Russian response at this time may be measured against the targets Ukraine hits. They only really have two options - launch massive missile/drone attacks like a couple days ago with limited success and depletion of missiles - or use of tactical nukes, to minimize potential response from NATO. Even the relatively small tactical nukes could bring Ukraine to their knees quickly. That would cross a big red line by the west, and likely inject Poland into combat. The potential for escalation would increase exponentially.
Inversely, the prospects for peace will drop to nil.

Were Russia to initiate the nuclear option, the blow back on sanctions alone could set its already suffering economy into a black hole. Many analysts suggest that Russia’s economy does not have the depth to maintain the war effort thru next year. Nuclear exchanges would kick the legs out from underneath it.

Zelenski has made comments that the first deep strikes will happen some time this week and we may see Russia’s answer by the weekend.

Final, the pause in the drone / missile campaign may well represent post strike analysis that will lead up to another large strike in the next few days.

Europe / NATO General –

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday that the European Union is preparing new sanctions against Iran over its arms supply for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The EU is also looking at the issue of Chinese drone support, she said in Brussels ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hezbollah ‘favorable’ toward cease fire talks.

- Kicked out of Qatar, billionaire Hamas leaders move to Turkey.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he demanded an increase in the payment for returning hostages to $5 million per person. He also called for a reward system for any information, urging it to be widely publicized among Gaza residents.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Relative “quiet” across most of Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The newspaper Al-Akhbar reports that the IDF has taken control of the village of Shema and is advancing toward the town of Al-Bayada. Heavy battles are ongoing in the area.

The Israeli army installs an “artillery battery” in the town of Shamaa (Shema) , south of Lebanon. This is a first for having artillery stage in Lebanon and indicates support for deeper ground operations.

Link below depicts current status estimates on the IAF advance in SW Lebanon

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GcmMMYwXwAAMs-g.jpg

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IAF continues to maintain a 100+ bombing attacks per day pace in Lebanon.

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Israeli army: We detected about 30 rockets crossing from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted and the rest fell in open areas. Rockets were fired towards Nahariya area.

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Lebanese TV network LBCI NEWS reported that Lebanon informed the Biden administration that Hezbollah gave a positive response to the ceasefire proposal. According to the report U.S. envoy will arrive in Beirut on Tuesday.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Sources associated with the Syrian opposition report that last night Israel attacked Hezbollah trucks in Syrian territory that were trying to enter Lebanon, near the “Al-Zamrani crossing” in the Al-Qalamoun area.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Hamas’s senior leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey, Israel’s Kan News public broadcaster reported on Sunday evening.
The report cited unnamed Israeli sources as confirming the move, which was said to have taken place in “recent days.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is rapidly pushing into SW Lebanon and the establishment of an artillery fire base in Lebanon for the first time is a key indicator of Israeli success.
IAF continues to destroy Hezbollah facilities in S Beirut, Tyre and Bekaa valley.

In Gaza, a pause before the next storm against Hamas.

The situation in Iran is clarifying regarding the health of Khamenei, lending some stability.

Interesting that the IRGC now emphasizing the security of its nuke sites versus attacking Israel. The potential for an Iranian missile attack against Israel continues to be present, but indicators are on a decline.

Iran –

Dispelling death rumors, Iranian state media released footage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meeting yesterday with Iran’s injured ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani.

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Iranian Foreign Ministry: We have taken all defensive measures to protect our nuclear facilities in light of Israeli threats

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A report in the New York Times: Iran’s leader Khamenei sent a message to Hezbollah at the end of the week through his advisor Ali Larijani that Tehran calls for agreeing to a ceasefire based on resolution 1701 and a withdrawal beyond the litany, and will continue to support Hezbollah and help it recover from the severe blows it has suffered

OBSERVATION - The devil is in the details. Iran/Hezbollah seem to be implying that they can once again work around the agreement just like the did with 1701 by intimidating and bullying the Lebanese and UN peace keepers to look the other way. Hezbollah will never agree to Israel’s demand to give the IDF freedom to strike terrorists and weapon shipments. The real key from this is the recognition that they are being beat and are seeking a way to get breathing space and rebuild.