Heck of a way to start Monday. Yesterday, biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS against deep targets in Russia. Germany and Britain quickly followed suit with their stealthy cruise missiles. We could be on the brink of the use of nukes by Russia and WW3.
Now we will see if Putin was bluffing or not.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Scrutiny has intensified over the World Bank’s handling of climate funds, with a recent report by Oxfam revealing that between $24 billion and $41 billion in climate finance disbursed by the Bank over the past seven years remains unaccounted for.
This staggering amount, equivalent to nearly 40% of all climate funds disbursed by the Bank during this period, raises serious questions about transparency and accountability.
https://expose-news.com/2024/11/17/scrutiny-of-world-bank-intensifies/
OBSERVATION - This should come as a shock to no one. Globalist bureaucrats in charge skimming the money off to go into their pockets.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
A lot of rumblings yesterday as a group called Sedition Hunters on “X” began to delete their accounts and go dark. While many of these ‘hunters’ were anonymous, some openly operated. Their stated purpose was to identify and report J6 participants to the FBI for prosecution. Apparently for their efforts, the FBI paid them One hunter - Terry Metes “dumped her … FBI handler” and is concerned she won’t be paid on 220 “backlogged” J6er identifications ($55,000-$110,000).
Many see the disbanding of the ‘hunters’ as a move to protect their identification as Trump moves into the WH and has set a goal of defending the J6 participants. These “hunters” are nothing more than modern Stazi collaborators
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Donald Trump’s MAGA faithful were outraged after it was leaked that Mitch McConnell hatched a plot to stall his Cabinet nominations in the Senate.
The backlash began after a now-deleted tweet from New Yorker staff writer Jane Mayer claimed McConnell told colleagues ‘there will be no recess appointments’ for the president-elect’s cabinet members.
‘Message to Trump Team: “There will be no recess appointments” Sen. Mitch McConnell said tonight at a Washington gathering,’ Mayer wrote on X at around 8 pm Sunday
OBSERVATION - The democrats are having a civil war of their own, but the establishment (RINOs) republicans are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Thus far, Thune has backed trumps’ nominees but as an underling to McConnell we may soon see just how sincere he is.
Biden / Harris Watch –
President Biden has given the OK to lift restrictions that will allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Less than 2 months left in his term and biden has been going into overdrive to get munitions to Ukraine and now this. NOTE Britain and Germany have followed suit with their cruise missiles. Question is will putin blink again. He has laid out many red lines that Ukraine has crossed, but this one seems to be pretty hard set. Use of any nuke by Russia will likely set up counter responses by the west.
Tied to this is Russia’s introduction of about 10K North Korean forces that maybe increasing by another 100K in the near future. This is one of the justifications used by biden et al for the freeing of ATACM use.
OBSERVATION - biden knows one of Trump’s key foreign policy efforts will be to end the war in Ukraine. Many can see that this as well as announcements to push as much aid as possible before Jan 20 as efforts to derail his promises to get fighting to end. But to actually push the envelope of potential nuclear war is way outside the envelope.
Illegal Immigration –
Word coming out that Trump has decided to declare a national emergency to facilitate the deportation of millions of illegals. This is not totally unexpected as he said as much during the campaign.
North/South Korea –
North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.
Russia -
*****
Kremlin’s spokesperson: The option of freezing the war in Ukraine along the line of control is unacceptable for Russia
NUCLEAR THREATS –
President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the US has sparked a furious response in Russia.
“Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences,” declared the website of the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Monday morning.
Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, head of the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, predicted that the decision would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.
Russian senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called it “an unprecedented step towards World War Three”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5l1220zxo
Warning from Sep 2024 -
Putin: “We will use NUCLEAR weapons if a mass enemy missile or UAV is launched towards Russia, or when these weapons cross into Russian territory”. This footage is from September 2024, warning Western countries against striking Russia directly.
OBSERVATION - Here is putin’s line in the sand that could trigger a nuclear response from a couple months ago when allowing Ukraine use of these weapons started to increase -
“A new nuclear doctrine would “clearly set the conditions for Russia to transition to using nuclear weapons,” he warned – and said such scenarios included conventional missile strikes against Moscow.
He said that Russia would consider such a “possibility” of using nuclear weapons if it detected the start of a massive launch of missiles, aircraft and drones into its territory, which presented a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.
He added: “It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”
RUMINT-
North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg citing G20 intelligence.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian regions, including the Moscow region, were under drone attacks overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it shot down 59 UAVs across various regions.
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones. Substantially fewer numbers than previous.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
8/11 Shahed drones
3 more Shahed drones were suppressed by electronic warfare and were lost on Ukrainian territory.
Odesa was hit by ballistic missiles not noted above.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novooleksiivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukraine announces nationwide power ‘restrictions’ Monday after major Russian attack
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Minor gains along the line south of Pokrovsk.
Summary —
Escalation is the word for today. There is no reported requirement for US/British/ German target approval either. The area in Russia is target rich, some 100+ strategic sites from airfields, troop concentrations, command centers, etc. One target likely high on the list is the Kerch Bridge, once considered one of the forbidden ‘russian’ targets.
Contrary to Russian claims, these weapons systems are virtually untouchable by ADA systems. So they will be able to do considerable damage, though relatively few in number.
Russian response at this time may be measured against the targets Ukraine hits. They only really have two options - launch massive missile/drone attacks like a couple days ago with limited success and depletion of missiles - or use of tactical nukes, to minimize potential response from NATO. Even the relatively small tactical nukes could bring Ukraine to their knees quickly. That would cross a big red line by the west, and likely inject Poland into combat. The potential for escalation would increase exponentially.
Inversely, the prospects for peace will drop to nil.
Were Russia to initiate the nuclear option, the blow back on sanctions alone could set its already suffering economy into a black hole. Many analysts suggest that Russia’s economy does not have the depth to maintain the war effort thru next year. Nuclear exchanges would kick the legs out from underneath it.
Zelenski has made comments that the first deep strikes will happen some time this week and we may see Russia’s answer by the weekend.
Final, the pause in the drone / missile campaign may well represent post strike analysis that will lead up to another large strike in the next few days.
Europe / NATO General –
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday that the European Union is preparing new sanctions against Iran over its arms supply for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The EU is also looking at the issue of Chinese drone support, she said in Brussels ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah ‘favorable’ toward cease fire talks.
- Kicked out of Qatar, billionaire Hamas leaders move to Turkey.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he demanded an increase in the payment for returning hostages to $5 million per person. He also called for a reward system for any information, urging it to be widely publicized among Gaza residents.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Relative “quiet” across most of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The newspaper Al-Akhbar reports that the IDF has taken control of the village of Shema and is advancing toward the town of Al-Bayada. Heavy battles are ongoing in the area.
The Israeli army installs an “artillery battery” in the town of Shamaa (Shema) , south of Lebanon. This is a first for having artillery stage in Lebanon and indicates support for deeper ground operations.
Link below depicts current status estimates on the IAF advance in SW Lebanon
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GcmMMYwXwAAMs-g.jpg
***
IAF continues to maintain a 100+ bombing attacks per day pace in Lebanon.
***
Israeli army: We detected about 30 rockets crossing from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted and the rest fell in open areas. Rockets were fired towards Nahariya area.
***
Lebanese TV network LBCI NEWS reported that Lebanon informed the Biden administration that Hezbollah gave a positive response to the ceasefire proposal. According to the report U.S. envoy will arrive in Beirut on Tuesday.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Sources associated with the Syrian opposition report that last night Israel attacked Hezbollah trucks in Syrian territory that were trying to enter Lebanon, near the “Al-Zamrani crossing” in the Al-Qalamoun area.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Hamas’s senior leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey, Israel’s Kan News public broadcaster reported on Sunday evening.
The report cited unnamed Israeli sources as confirming the move, which was said to have taken place in “recent days.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel is rapidly pushing into SW Lebanon and the establishment of an artillery fire base in Lebanon for the first time is a key indicator of Israeli success.
IAF continues to destroy Hezbollah facilities in S Beirut, Tyre and Bekaa valley.
In Gaza, a pause before the next storm against Hamas.
The situation in Iran is clarifying regarding the health of Khamenei, lending some stability.
Interesting that the IRGC now emphasizing the security of its nuke sites versus attacking Israel. The potential for an Iranian missile attack against Israel continues to be present, but indicators are on a decline.
Iran –
Dispelling death rumors, Iranian state media released footage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meeting yesterday with Iran’s injured ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani.
***
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We have taken all defensive measures to protect our nuclear facilities in light of Israeli threats
***
A report in the New York Times: Iran’s leader Khamenei sent a message to Hezbollah at the end of the week through his advisor Ali Larijani that Tehran calls for agreeing to a ceasefire based on resolution 1701 and a withdrawal beyond the litany, and will continue to support Hezbollah and help it recover from the severe blows it has suffered
OBSERVATION - The devil is in the details. Iran/Hezbollah seem to be implying that they can once again work around the agreement just like the did with 1701 by intimidating and bullying the Lebanese and UN peace keepers to look the other way. Hezbollah will never agree to Israel’s demand to give the IDF freedom to strike terrorists and weapon shipments. The real key from this is the recognition that they are being beat and are seeking a way to get breathing space and rebuild.
Makes me wonder how many congresscritters have stock in cruise missiles
If this move by the DS to start a nuclear confrontation with Russia before Trump takes office succeeds, it’s going to be hard to blame Trump for it, although I don’t doubt the DS/dems/leftists will try.
The whole climate crap is a slush fund for global 'elites'. Is John Kerry buzzing around? This amount of money makes it more understandable why we're having to defend hellholes like Ukraine so 'our elites' have ways to clean up the money they're stealing. It's a LOT of money...
Trump needs to form a group to go after these international "elite" thieves...
Globalism / Great Reset –
A phrase associated with the globalists is that a great crisis is necessary for the world to accept their plans and leadership. Are we stepping into this crisis with the escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
President-elect Donald Trump on Monday confirmed reports that he is planning to declare a national emergency at the southern border in order to use the military to stop “the invasion.”
OBSERVATION - This will be one of the biggest tripwires for domestic violence on the radar screen for 2025 and beyond. Radical leftists and Antifa are already preparing this to be one of their anchor points for violence. Numerous democrat governors have announced that they will attempt to prevent the govt from deporting their ‘citizens’, predominantly by refusing to allow state/local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE to even rumors of some more aggressive measures of protection. ACLU is mounting efforts to wage lawfare to stop the deportations. The pampered princes in the pentagon have been conspiring ways to disobey any Trump activation.
***
Currently, most of the leftist protests/rallies have a pro-hamas / anti -Israel focus. Nothing significant that could produce mass rioting.
***
MY OBSERVATIONS - The democrats are making nicey nice all of a sudden, while behind the scenes reorganizing their new resistance to Trump. Don’t trust them any further than you can throw them. Same too the RINOs who haven’t gotten the message of the American people.
biden’s OK for ATACMs use by Ukraine looks very much like he is trying to hand off a much more serious regional situation - making it more difficult for Trump to try to negotiate any kind of ceasefire and eventual peace treaty. An enlarged war in the region is a big problem by its self.
Second needing watching is any kind of economic resistance and trigger a recession/crash on his way out.
Third as noted above is violence surrounding deportation of illegals. This is the biggest violence scenario on the radar.
My antenna are fully up. It seems we are currently in the eye of the storm and brother the eye-wall is coming back with vengeance and we better be ready.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
The Georgia Court of Appeals has abruptly cancelled oral argument in the Fani Willis Trump RICO disqualification appeal.
https://x.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1858631501132558375
OBSERVATION - it is the belief by the author of the post above that the most likely reason is that the court is going forward with the evidence at hand - and not a good sign for Willis.
***
Pennsylvania Supreme Court slammed the counting of invalid ballots by Bucks County. Told them to immediately stop.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reporters are shocked that World leaders at G20 took a group photo without Biden. World Leaders didn’t wait for him to get on stage and as Biden walked up they ALL WALKED OFF
Russia -
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree updating Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that Ukraine’s use of Western missiles could provoke a nuclear response. The revised doctrine underscores that any attack on Russia or its allies could lead to retaliation, with nuclear weapons seen as a deterrent reserved for threats to Russian sovereignty, including from conventional forces.
OBSERVATION - This update many see as lowering the threshold for Russian use of nukes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Announced only yesterday, Ukraine apparently didn’t wait to use the ATACMS in their possession.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk region. Initial reports suggested it was a drone attack, as residents reported hearing them. They may have been present as a decoy, but it appears ATACMS were used. Massive explosions and secondaries reported.
Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
***
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 87 Shaheds launched, 51 were shot down and 30 more were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian forces made incremental gains along segments of the Donbas front. Evidence indicates Russian counterattacks in Kursk are failing.
Summary —
The strong likelihood that Ukraine has used ATACMs against sites in Russia is forcing a change in the status quo. Russia is in a difficult spot defending against their use because they have acknowledged receiving weapons systems from China, Iran and N Korea as well as growing numbers of ground troops from NK. Allowing greater use of systems like ATACMS as well as British/French cruise missiles is seen as a ‘natural’ response to Russia’s actions.
As I noted before, Russia has few choices now. Either follow through with its nuclear threat, find some conventional munitions means or blow smoke and rhetoric. It is too early in this new game period to conclusively say what putin’s next step will be. He’s backed down from previous threats, particularly after Ukraine hit Moscow with drones. There is a strong likelihood he will back back from nuclear component this as well. But I expect an attempt at a strong conventional attack on Ukraine. I really don’t think putin is ready for a scrum with NATO just yet.
A potential game changer for Ukraine will heavily depend upon them choosing the targets which gives them the most bang for their buck. Too early to see just how good their intel is in identifying targets and the timeliness of that intel.
Europe / NATO General –
Following Finnish media reports that an unexplained failure of an undersea telecommunications cable has disrupted communication services between Finland and Germany, Telia says that the communications cable between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged
The Russian spy ship “Yantar” was spotted operating drones near key underwater energy & internet infrastructure, raising suspicions about possible sabotage, according to the Guardian.
***
GEORGIA -
Police in Tbilisi dispersed protesters blocking a major intersection in the capital. The protest, which lasted over 30 hours, was the latest demonstration against widespread electoral fraud by the ruling Georgian Dream party
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Initial acceptance of a US proposal for a Lebanon cease fire by Hezbollah and Lebanon.
- IAF has nearly reached the Med Sea on its push in SW Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting on Monday that Israel will review its ability to act against Iran once the new U.S. administration takes over.
At the start of the discussion, the prime minister said that while the war is being waged on seven fronts, “It has one source — Iran … [whose] goal is the destruction of the State of Israel,” according to a Knesset readout.
Netanyahu clarified that the decision not to attack certain targets within the Islamic Republic hadn’t stemmed from U.S. pressure.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-iran/2024/11/19/id/1188587/
***
Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting.
Axios quoting Israeli officials: Intensifying raids on Beirut is to increase pressure on Hezbollah to accept the ceasefire agreement
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he would reject any ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that requires a full IDF withdrawal.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Massive Hamas surrender in northern Gaza last night. In the dozens.
Yesterday, IDF fighters from the Givati Brigade’s Shaked Battalion eliminated approximately 40 terrorists attempting to flee the Jabaliya camp under the cover of rain and fog.
***
The continued looting of humanitarian aid trucks demonstrates that Hamas’ internal control remains limited and severely weakened. Armed men, likely part of criminal organizations, looted 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks that entered the southern Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border crossing on November 16.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We monitored the launch of 170 rockets from southern Lebanon towards Israel today (Monday)
***
IDF continues to press into SW Lebanon.
IDF has pivoted west towards Al-Bayada and the coast of the Med Sea. Hezbollah attempting to counterattack IDF forces at Shama. .
The Israeli army captured the villages of Chamaa, Tayrharfa and Ulama al-Shaab in the Al-Naqoura axis. This widened the penetration towards Shama.
These three villages, especially Tayrharfa, played an important role in supporting the southern front, and according to the Israelis, they were the origin of many rocket attacks on Israeli settlements.
With the capture of these three villages, the likelihood of Hamul, Al-Naqourah, and Labuneh falling has increased.
***
Israeli jets launch airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold of Al-Khiyam in Lebanon, coinciding with artillery shelling targeting the area.
***
A medium range ballistic missile fired from Lebanon hit an arab suburb of Tel Aviv overnight. Rambam Hospital in Haifa reports that the number of wounded from a rocket that fell on the city of Shefa-Amr has risen to 30, including two serious injuries. Fragments of interceptors and intercepted missiles also caused some damage and minor injuries across the area as they fell to ground.
———WEST BANK——————————-
US State Department: We have made clear in the past that Israel must do more to curb settler violence in the West Bank
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The political office of the Palestinian terror group, Hamas, in Doha has not been permanently closed, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday.
Al-Ansari said leaders of the Hamas negotiating team were not in Doha.
This comes following reports that senior members of Hamas’s leadership outside of Gaza have been in Turkey in recent days, Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported on Sunday.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829808
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The threat of an attack by Israel on Iran for the attempted assassination of Netanyahu appears to have been pushed down the road to 2025. Same too for Iran’s declared retaliatory attack. The Trump factor affecting both sides, but far more negatively for Iran than Israel.
The probability of a missile strike by either side at this stage is decreasing. All bets come off again should things become unstable in US politics.
Iran’s precarious position of losing its Hamas arm and now on the edge of losing its biggest threat - Hezbollah - is behind their recent OK for Hezbollah to seek a ceasefire. The typical goal by these jihadi’s for these ceasefires is to permit them to regroup and rearm as quickly as possible and then resume the fight - of course, breaking the ceasefire in the process. Though Hezbollah has ‘agreed’ to some of the US plan, Israel is all too wise to the typical abuse of a ceasefire by Hezbollah and reserves the right to attack and interdict should the Lebanese army/govt fail to disarm and remove Hezbollah from the area south of the Litani River as well as prevent resupply from Syria and other sources.
To top it off, Israel has said it will continue its attacks during negotiations - no quarter.
The Israeli envelopment of SW Lebanon region is nearly complete. The maneuver has out flanked Hezbollah defensive lines will soon have a large element encircled.
Hamas has been having a very bad day in N Gaza. Dozens surrendered and some 40 caught in an Israeli ambush. With leadership status leaving Qatar leaving the fighters in limbo, only the diehards are increasingly left to fight.
