Globalism / Great Reset –
A phrase associated with the globalists is that a great crisis is necessary for the world to accept their plans and leadership. Are we stepping into this crisis with the escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
President-elect Donald Trump on Monday confirmed reports that he is planning to declare a national emergency at the southern border in order to use the military to stop “the invasion.”
OBSERVATION - This will be one of the biggest tripwires for domestic violence on the radar screen for 2025 and beyond. Radical leftists and Antifa are already preparing this to be one of their anchor points for violence. Numerous democrat governors have announced that they will attempt to prevent the govt from deporting their ‘citizens’, predominantly by refusing to allow state/local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE to even rumors of some more aggressive measures of protection. ACLU is mounting efforts to wage lawfare to stop the deportations. The pampered princes in the pentagon have been conspiring ways to disobey any Trump activation.
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Currently, most of the leftist protests/rallies have a pro-hamas / anti -Israel focus. Nothing significant that could produce mass rioting.
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MY OBSERVATIONS - The democrats are making nicey nice all of a sudden, while behind the scenes reorganizing their new resistance to Trump. Don’t trust them any further than you can throw them. Same too the RINOs who haven’t gotten the message of the American people.
biden’s OK for ATACMs use by Ukraine looks very much like he is trying to hand off a much more serious regional situation - making it more difficult for Trump to try to negotiate any kind of ceasefire and eventual peace treaty. An enlarged war in the region is a big problem by its self.
Second needing watching is any kind of economic resistance and trigger a recession/crash on his way out.
Third as noted above is violence surrounding deportation of illegals. This is the biggest violence scenario on the radar.
My antenna are fully up. It seems we are currently in the eye of the storm and brother the eye-wall is coming back with vengeance and we better be ready.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
The Georgia Court of Appeals has abruptly cancelled oral argument in the Fani Willis Trump RICO disqualification appeal.
https://x.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1858631501132558375
OBSERVATION - it is the belief by the author of the post above that the most likely reason is that the court is going forward with the evidence at hand - and not a good sign for Willis.
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Pennsylvania Supreme Court slammed the counting of invalid ballots by Bucks County. Told them to immediately stop.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reporters are shocked that World leaders at G20 took a group photo without Biden. World Leaders didn’t wait for him to get on stage and as Biden walked up they ALL WALKED OFF
Russia -
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree updating Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that Ukraine’s use of Western missiles could provoke a nuclear response. The revised doctrine underscores that any attack on Russia or its allies could lead to retaliation, with nuclear weapons seen as a deterrent reserved for threats to Russian sovereignty, including from conventional forces.
OBSERVATION - This update many see as lowering the threshold for Russian use of nukes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Announced only yesterday, Ukraine apparently didn’t wait to use the ATACMS in their possession.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk region. Initial reports suggested it was a drone attack, as residents reported hearing them. They may have been present as a decoy, but it appears ATACMS were used. Massive explosions and secondaries reported.
Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
***
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 87 Shaheds launched, 51 were shot down and 30 more were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian forces made incremental gains along segments of the Donbas front. Evidence indicates Russian counterattacks in Kursk are failing.
Summary —
The strong likelihood that Ukraine has used ATACMs against sites in Russia is forcing a change in the status quo. Russia is in a difficult spot defending against their use because they have acknowledged receiving weapons systems from China, Iran and N Korea as well as growing numbers of ground troops from NK. Allowing greater use of systems like ATACMS as well as British/French cruise missiles is seen as a ‘natural’ response to Russia’s actions.
As I noted before, Russia has few choices now. Either follow through with its nuclear threat, find some conventional munitions means or blow smoke and rhetoric. It is too early in this new game period to conclusively say what putin’s next step will be. He’s backed down from previous threats, particularly after Ukraine hit Moscow with drones. There is a strong likelihood he will back back from nuclear component this as well. But I expect an attempt at a strong conventional attack on Ukraine. I really don’t think putin is ready for a scrum with NATO just yet.
A potential game changer for Ukraine will heavily depend upon them choosing the targets which gives them the most bang for their buck. Too early to see just how good their intel is in identifying targets and the timeliness of that intel.
Europe / NATO General –
Following Finnish media reports that an unexplained failure of an undersea telecommunications cable has disrupted communication services between Finland and Germany, Telia says that the communications cable between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged
The Russian spy ship “Yantar” was spotted operating drones near key underwater energy & internet infrastructure, raising suspicions about possible sabotage, according to the Guardian.
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GEORGIA -
Police in Tbilisi dispersed protesters blocking a major intersection in the capital. The protest, which lasted over 30 hours, was the latest demonstration against widespread electoral fraud by the ruling Georgian Dream party
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Initial acceptance of a US proposal for a Lebanon cease fire by Hezbollah and Lebanon.
- IAF has nearly reached the Med Sea on its push in SW Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting on Monday that Israel will review its ability to act against Iran once the new U.S. administration takes over.
At the start of the discussion, the prime minister said that while the war is being waged on seven fronts, “It has one source — Iran … [whose] goal is the destruction of the State of Israel,” according to a Knesset readout.
Netanyahu clarified that the decision not to attack certain targets within the Islamic Republic hadn’t stemmed from U.S. pressure.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-iran/2024/11/19/id/1188587/
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Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting.
Axios quoting Israeli officials: Intensifying raids on Beirut is to increase pressure on Hezbollah to accept the ceasefire agreement
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that he would reject any ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that requires a full IDF withdrawal.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Massive Hamas surrender in northern Gaza last night. In the dozens.
Yesterday, IDF fighters from the Givati Brigade’s Shaked Battalion eliminated approximately 40 terrorists attempting to flee the Jabaliya camp under the cover of rain and fog.
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The continued looting of humanitarian aid trucks demonstrates that Hamas’ internal control remains limited and severely weakened. Armed men, likely part of criminal organizations, looted 98 of 109 humanitarian aid trucks that entered the southern Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border crossing on November 16.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We monitored the launch of 170 rockets from southern Lebanon towards Israel today (Monday)
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IDF continues to press into SW Lebanon.
IDF has pivoted west towards Al-Bayada and the coast of the Med Sea. Hezbollah attempting to counterattack IDF forces at Shama. .
The Israeli army captured the villages of Chamaa, Tayrharfa and Ulama al-Shaab in the Al-Naqoura axis. This widened the penetration towards Shama.
These three villages, especially Tayrharfa, played an important role in supporting the southern front, and according to the Israelis, they were the origin of many rocket attacks on Israeli settlements.
With the capture of these three villages, the likelihood of Hamul, Al-Naqourah, and Labuneh falling has increased.
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Israeli jets launch airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold of Al-Khiyam in Lebanon, coinciding with artillery shelling targeting the area.
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A medium range ballistic missile fired from Lebanon hit an arab suburb of Tel Aviv overnight. Rambam Hospital in Haifa reports that the number of wounded from a rocket that fell on the city of Shefa-Amr has risen to 30, including two serious injuries. Fragments of interceptors and intercepted missiles also caused some damage and minor injuries across the area as they fell to ground.
———WEST BANK——————————-
US State Department: We have made clear in the past that Israel must do more to curb settler violence in the West Bank
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The political office of the Palestinian terror group, Hamas, in Doha has not been permanently closed, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday.
Al-Ansari said leaders of the Hamas negotiating team were not in Doha.
This comes following reports that senior members of Hamas’s leadership outside of Gaza have been in Turkey in recent days, Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported on Sunday.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829808
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The threat of an attack by Israel on Iran for the attempted assassination of Netanyahu appears to have been pushed down the road to 2025. Same too for Iran’s declared retaliatory attack. The Trump factor affecting both sides, but far more negatively for Iran than Israel.
The probability of a missile strike by either side at this stage is decreasing. All bets come off again should things become unstable in US politics.
Iran’s precarious position of losing its Hamas arm and now on the edge of losing its biggest threat - Hezbollah - is behind their recent OK for Hezbollah to seek a ceasefire. The typical goal by these jihadi’s for these ceasefires is to permit them to regroup and rearm as quickly as possible and then resume the fight - of course, breaking the ceasefire in the process. Though Hezbollah has ‘agreed’ to some of the US plan, Israel is all too wise to the typical abuse of a ceasefire by Hezbollah and reserves the right to attack and interdict should the Lebanese army/govt fail to disarm and remove Hezbollah from the area south of the Litani River as well as prevent resupply from Syria and other sources.
To top it off, Israel has said it will continue its attacks during negotiations - no quarter.
The Israeli envelopment of SW Lebanon region is nearly complete. The maneuver has out flanked Hezbollah defensive lines will soon have a large element encircled.
Hamas has been having a very bad day in N Gaza. Dozens surrendered and some 40 caught in an Israeli ambush. With leadership status leaving Qatar leaving the fighters in limbo, only the diehards are increasingly left to fight.
Oh, I'm ready. I'm ready to lie down and die.
FML
Yes, a Reichstag Nuclear Fire would fill that call for a 'great crisis'... Then again our job is to tell global 'elites' hell NO to their silly manipulative crap. We would 'hold their feet to the fire' so to speak and stop them from using that horror to fill the void.
Remember when press idiots told us Biden was so respected on the world stage? And how Trump was like a Bull in a China shop? Well, we can add this story about Biden being humiliated to the list of provable lies about Biden's 'attributes' by the MSM...
When the leftists are done with their tools, they drop them cold.
I cannot imagine a more disrespectful thing to have done to him. It goes to show their contempt for him and us.
It shows who our friends are. We can't trust any one of those countries represented.
ALERT.. ALERT..
Urgent alerts going out to the embassies in Kyiv - expecting a massive Russian attack
Developing.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Protestors supporting Hamas in Gaza stormed the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday. The demonstrators, shouting “Free Palestine” and blowing whistles, marched about the building’s first-floor lobby in what was a chaotic scene.The demonstrators unfurled several large banners in front of the flat, black, brutalist sculpture meant to represent five mountains in the center of the Hart building’s lobby. The banners read “Fund Jobs. Not Genocide,” “Fund Education. Not Genocide,” and “Fund Healthcare. Not Genocide.”
It is unclear whether the U.S. Capitol Police made any arrests, though some protestors in the video of the scene appear to be resisting efforts by the officers to confiscate banners and signs.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/11/19/hamas-sympathizers-storm-us-senate-buildings/
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon: We have no indications of Russian preparations to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and we do not see a need to change our nuclear posture.
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USS George Washington (CVN-73) will arrive in its new homeport of Yokosuka, Japan, on Friday, returning to the port almost nine years after being relieved as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier by USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) in 2015.
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USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has entered the U.S. 7th Fleet, leaving the Middle East without a carrier for just the second time in over a year, USNI News has learned.
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is currently in the Eastern Atlantic en route to the Mediterranean Sea. The carrier strike group will likely travel to U.S. Central Command as part of the continued merchant shipping protection mission Operation Prosperity Guardian.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Sonny Hostin was forced to issue a “legal note” on The View that Matt Gaetz was found to have done nothing wrong after a three year DOJ investigation.
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Despite reports that a state judge in New York has put the brakes on Donald Trump’s sentencing in the criminal hush-money case, court records show the sentencing as of now is still scheduled for Nov. 26, though whether the hearing will be held on that date remains to be seen.
Illegal Immigration –
The vicious Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua has expanded its territory to at least 16 US states — an area that includes half of America’s population, The Post has learned.
Homeland Security officials last week were warned in an internal department intelligence memo about TdA’s growing presence across the country, most recently in Washington, DC, Virginia, Montana and Wyoming.
The gang already has footholds in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin, according to the memo and previous reporting by The Post.
OBSERVATION - Minor shock to see penetration into the American Redoubt state of Montana. We’ll see how resilient they are after a Montana winter. The article doesn’t specifically identify areas in the state they are congregating to, but Montana is likely a target in particular because of the indian reservations which are having human trafficking issues as well as substantial drug and alcohol related problems. Located strategically to the major reservations are Montana’ two largest cities - Billings and Great Falls - both beginning to suffer increased crime from gang and drug related issues. Montana is also on the main N - S route for meth and fentanyl going to Canada.
Rest assured, Montana will cooperate with ICE to clean these scum out of the state.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
A NSC spokesman says the White House is “not surprised by Russia’s announcement that it would update its nuclear doctrine; Russia had been signaling its intent to update its doctrine for several weeks. Observing no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture
Logistics –
Some Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles in recent strikes used old Soviet R-95-300 engines instead of standard Russian TRDD-50A engines.
These engines are no longer manufactured, and must have been old Soviet stocks or scavenged from disassembled Kh-55/55SM cruise missiles.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with periods of rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Several Embassies in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv, including the U.S. Embassy, announced earlier that they will be closed today due to a potential “Significant Air Attack” on November 20th; with Embassy Staff ordered to shelter in place, while american citizens in the city are told to immediately shelter following an air raid.
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 56 strike drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles.
Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down 42 UAVs over the territories of the Bryansk, Smolensk, Moscow, Kursk, Oryol and Rostov regions, - Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
Drone hit a plant in Alexeyevka district in Belgorod.
Summary —
Watching to see if the reported impending large attack on Kyiv happens or not. In all likelihood the answer will be yes - Russia’s response to the use of ATACMs against it.
Brutal battles continue in the Donbas region. Little to no news coming out of Kursk.
Europe / NATO General –
Danish military confirms its naval ships are present in the area of Yi Peng 3, a Chinese ship suspected of deliberately destroying two underwater telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. Danish military is believed to have intercepted the Chinese ship. Reports are that the Yi Peng 3 has been detained.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Attempts by UN to force a Gaza ceasefire that will leave the hostages in control of Hamas.
- Floods from heavy rain likely impacting ground combat in S Lebanon and Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The UN Security Council will vote on a Gaza ceasefire resolution that does not mention the release of the hostages, with uncertainty over whether the US will use its veto power.
Notably, last June, the US supported a similar resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. However, Security Council resolutions are not binding, and remain declarative only.
In case of non-compliance from the parties, the Council has future authority to take binding measures, including imposing sanctions on Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-829927
OBSERVATION - biden seems to be throwing bombs out of the window as he exits out of the WH. biden will likely support this resolution given the following related -
RELATED - he Biden-Harris administration on Monday unveiled sweeping new sanctions on Israeli Jews, just days after it awarded another $230 million in taxpayer funds to the Palestinians. The back-to-back announcements signal that diplomatic relations between Israel and the outgoing White House will continue to sour until President-elect Donald Trump retakes office next year.
The new sanctions are the broadest to date, imposing unprecedented punitive measures on three Israeli organizations the administration accuses of fomenting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. They were leveled just days after a coalition of nearly 90 congressional Democrats petitioned the Biden administration to ramp up sanctions on Israel before leaving the White House.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/
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Record-breaking rains hit Israel on Tuesday, causing severe flooding in multiple regions, including Haifa. As the intense weather overwhelmed infrastructure, flash flood warnings were issued for the Judean Desert and the Dead Sea areas.
In Zikhron Ya’akov, an unprecedented 196 mm (7.72 inches) of rain fell within just four hours on Tuesday morning.
https://watchers.news/2024/11/20/israel-sets-a-new-all-time-rainfall-record-in-just-4-hours/
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army is pushing towards Abel Al-Saqi. This is a developing new push on the eastern side of the border, moving northward. Possibly designed to pivot to the east to trap Hezbollah in the Hasbaya district of S Lebanon.
To the east, Israeli forces begin attempts to advance south of the town of Kafrchouba in southern Lebanon under cover of airstrikes and artillery shelling.
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New leader of Hezbollah gave his first address today indicating that he is going to continue the fight no matter what.
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Hezbollah has now rejected components of a ceasefire plan.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raids target residential buildings in the city of Palmyra, and information about strikes that targeted a meeting of Iranian militias
Israel is reportedly ready to strike Iranian supply lines taking missiles to Iraqi militias.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes ongoing between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
See Syria above, impending IAF strikes on Iranian militias.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to expand into S Lebanon, with Hezbollah only able to put up local resistance.
Conditions for Hamas continue to get worse in Gaza.
A new missile exchange between Iran and Israel is now low probability.
Turkey –
Turkey says it is ready to replace US / Coalition forces in eastern Syria if they are pulled out. This is not good news as these are predominantly Kurd homelands, and would open up new levels of violence by Turkey.