Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Detroit synagogue president Samantha Woll was found murdered outside of her home. Woll was a prominent figure in the Jewish community and worked to build bridges between Jews and Muslims.
She also previously worked for Democrat congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and was on the re-election campaign for Democrat Attorney General Dana Nessel. She resided in pro-Hamas congresswoman Rashida Tlaib’s district.

OBSERVATION - Possibly anti-Israel terror related, but also, this is Detroit. Tlaib has been on a rage of anti-Israeli rhetoric over the past week and this may have triggered the murder.

***
Pro-Hamas protestors clashed with police in NYC overnight, as the number of protests grew across the country as the weekend came upon us.

OBSERVATION - Most violence occurred after dark - common timing, especially if Antifa / BLM are involved as it helps mask their identities and enables actions. However, most damage was fires set in streets.

Continued heightened concern and awareness as the action in Gaza will shift to a ground phase.

Terrorism -

The Department of Homeland Security announced it has put an asylum official on leave after it was reported she formerly worked for the terror-backed Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and had been seen posting virulent anti-Israel posts on social media.
Nejwa Ali, who had been hired in 2019 and was working at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services as an asylum officer, had worked for the PLO in 2016 and 2017 prior to being hired by DHS, according to the New York Post.
Ali was reportedly a public affairs officer for the PLO’s delegation to the U.S.A. and, according to her Linkdin profile, in Jan. she was handed an even higher position with DHS and was working as an adjudication officer, a position in which she was responsible for vetting people before they enter the U.S.
But Ali’s social media accounts have revealed a deep animus for Israel and Jews and are filled with hateful rhetoric which has been steadily mounting over the last month. And on Wednesday, DHS spokesman Matthew Burke said Ali had been placed on administrative leave pending an investigation.

OBSERVATION - More details on this mole that the regimen knowingly hired to this sensitive position. She’s still be there if it weren’t for the break out of war in Gaza/Israel. Who knows how many terrorists she facilitated placement here.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin has put out a press release, saying he has activated the deployment of a THAAD battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to the Middle East region to “increase force protection for U.S. forces”.
He also says he has placed an additional number of forces on “prepare to deploy” orders “to increase their readiness and ability to quickly respond as required.”

OBSERVATION - These forces appear to be in addition to the standing rapid deployment forces of the 82d and 101st divisions. I suspect these ‘alerted’ units are heavier mech/armor division elements. Further - no stated location for these THAAD and related to be stationed. US ‘allies’ in the region are not on best terms now with US due to our support of Israel and deployment to Israel will be seen as a big provocation by arabs.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

To obtain emergency use authorization (EUA) for its COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer and BioNTech submitted a data package in 2020 to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) so the agency could evaluate the safety and efficacy of its vaccine. A recently published peer-reviewed study by the DailyClout Pfizer/BioNTech Documents Investigations Team suggests Pfizer excluded known deaths in the vaccine arm of its clinical trial from its data filing and withheld information from the agency that could have resulted in a denial of EUA. Delayed reporting of the subject deaths into the Case Report Forms (CRFs) obscured the cardiac adverse event signal and allowed Pfizer/BioNTech’s request for EUA to proceed unchallenged, according to the study.
As reported by The Epoch Times prior to the study’s publication in the International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research, a group of researchers conducted a forensic analysis of Pfizer/BioNTech’s early COVID-19 vaccine trial data and found significant inconsistencies between data in the companies’ six-month interim report and publications authored by Pfizer/BioNTech trial site administrators.

The forensic analysis showed trial subjects vaccinated with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine experienced a 3.7 times increase in cardiovascular deaths compared to placebo controls and that this “significant adverse event signal” was not disclosed by Pfizer when the FDA was evaluating its vaccine for emergency use. Additionally, researchers identified numerous instances where Pfizer/BioNTech attributed potential vaccine-associated deaths to other causes and undermined vaccine safety data.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/researchers-find-pfizer-excluded-clinical-trial-deaths-from-fda-covid-vaccine-eua-request-5511880?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=lead-story-health-0

OBSERVATION - Documentation of fraud by Pfizer and Moderna will strip the lawsuit protections the EUA gives them. This is another peace of the evidence demonstrating such fraud.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Tom Emmer told members of the House Republican Conference that he will seek nomination for speaker. Emmer will likely gain several Democrat votes. The Minnesota RINO was formerly a paid spokesman for the George Soros funded organization The National Popular Vote initiative. Emmer has also slithered to the top of the group vying for the nomination to speakership.

OBSERVATION - The house republicans are willing to commit hari-kari with a Soros minion. What little hope of any impeachment action, as well as other oversight into the massive fraud and crime of the biden clan will be gone.

****
Joe Biden’s summer beach house in Rehoboth, Delaware, where he has spent much of presidency on vacation, may have been paid for with Chinese bribe money.

According to an investigation by the DailyMail.com, Joe Biden bought the home in 2017 for roughly $2.75 million in cash. What makes this purchase suspicious is that it came mere weeks after Hunter Biden’s infamous text to Henry Zhao, an executive at the Chinese oil company CEFC. According to a WhatsApp conversation from July 30, 2017, Hunter threatened Zhao to pay a promised bribe while invoking his father’s name, insisting that Joe Biden was there with him as he wrote the message.

OBSERVATION - Fully understand this - the quisling house will not do anything to investigate this further. The coup by the swamp lead RINOS is seeking to put the nail into further investigations.

Biden / Harris Watch –

world burns, biden fiddles . . . .

Illegal Immigration –

Record numbers continue to pour across the border mostly unchecked. I sense a degree of panic by some democrats that they have opened a pandoras box with all the uncontrolled crossing and now the threat of real terror once again in the US is haunting them.

China –

New reporters are just now waking up to the fact that China has ships in the Mideast. 44th Chinese naval escort task force is in Kuwait. The task force is comprised of a guided-missile destroyer, a frigate, and an integrated supply ship. Their presence there has been part of an anti-pirate mission, a mission that many nations have been conducting in the region.

OBSERATION - Comprised by a couple of China’s newer ships, they would only be a minor player if they attempted to confront US/European forces in the region.

***
The Philippines has accused China’s coast guard of colliding with a Filipino supply boat in the South China Sea. The Filipino vessel was on its way Sunday to a Philippine outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal, where tensions have escalated in recent weeks.
Manila said Beijing’s “dangerous blocking manoeuvres” endangered the safety of the Filipino crew.
However, China said the Philippines “deliberately stirred up trouble”.

In a second incident also near Second Thomas Shoal on Sunday, Filipino authorities said a Chinese militia vessel bumped into a Philippine coast guard ship.
A second supply ship was able to reach the Philippine outpost in the shoal, Manila said.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with rain in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Hamas/Israel war still sucking the oxygen out of much of the Ukraine reporting.

Could have trouble brewing for Russia in the Kherson region -see below.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses.

Continued on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. No significant gains for either side.

A Russian military facility in occupied Donetsk was hit by HIMARS , according to Ukranian news. The news reports indicate that Russia’s attacks on Andiivka were being planned in this Russian facility.

Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian forces had established a presence in the Krynky settlement on the Russian-held Dnipro River’s left bank in Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage published on Oct. 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced into the northeastern part of Krynky, a village 35 kilometers east of Kherson and two kilometers southeast of the Dnipro River.

In a text exchange, the 46th brigade told the BBC that troops were engaged in heavy fighting as they try to take full control of the village of Krynky. If successful, the force said, the settlement would give advanced units a base from which to launch a larger offensive aimed at dividing Russian troops and cutting off their supply lines.

Still largely RUMINT, but OSINT trackers/observers have noted a potential buildup of forces across from the new bridgehead on the Dniper River consisting of -
3+ marine brigades
3 light brigades
1 security brigade
1 brigade of SF
1 armored brigade

If Ukraine can get bridging assets there as well, a significant development of this front will hit reality for Russia. They note that these are predominantly ‘light’ forces, but the terrain on the east (left) bank of the Dniper River is more suited for such and Ukraine currently has an artillery advantage in order to provide cover. Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary to prevent a major crossing in this area.

OUTLOOK -
Watch Kherson as this is growing to be an October surprise to Russia is Ukraine is able to establish crossings. This is the lightest defended sector Russia has, depending largely on the Dniper River to be the uncrossable barrier. Plus, Russia has stationed bashed up units there to reconsolidate and thinned out others to supply defense support to Tokmok.

Europe / NATO General –

A Chinese container ship called ‘Newnew Polar Bear’ is at the centre of a Finnish investigation into the potential sabotage of a gas pipeline and data cable between Finland and Estonia. Finnish police said on Friday that they were was focusing on the Hong Kong-registered container ship, as its movements coincided with the time and place of the damage to the undersea pipeline.

“The potential sabotage of undersea infrastructure has led Nato to increase its patrols in the Baltic Sea with additional flights by drones as well as surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft. The military alliance also sent four minesweepers to the area.”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Pressure from multiple governments for Israel to hold its offensive in order to get more hostages released.

A spokesperson for Israel’s military says it will increase attacks on the Gaza Strip beginning Saturday to prepare for the next stage of the war with Hamas. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters that its trying to create optimal conditions for a possible ground invasion
“We will deepen our attacks to minimize the dangers to our forces in the next stages of the war. We are going to increase the attacks, from today,” Hagari said.

Indicators that Israel may be considering a preemptive strike against Hezbollah when the ground campaign kicks off.

The Israeli military found a USB key with instructions for the production of a “cyanide dispersion device” on the body of a Hamas operative who participated in the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, according to two Israeli officials and a copy of a classified Israeli Foreign Ministry cable obtained by Axios. It is not clear from the file whether Hamas had any serious or operational plan for using makeshift chemical weapons or whether the group had attempted to produce them.

GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli army Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the deputy commander of Hamas’s rocket array was killed in an Israeli airstrike overnight.

Rocket fire from Hamas et al continued, albeit at lower rates into Israel while IAF continued its strikes on terror infrastructure in Gaza

The convoy of 20 trucks which entered Gaza through the Rafah Crossing with Egypt on Saturday were not checked for weapons, the New York Times reported. The convoy was supposed to be carrying food, water, and medical supplies. According to IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari, no fuel was brought into Gaza on the trucks, NYT added. However, according to the NYT, the first 20 trucks were not inspected for weapons, as Israel demanded they be.

At least 5,700 people have been killed in the war on both sides, including at least 1,400 Israeli civilians and soldiers and 32 Americans. The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry claims at least 4,385 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and the West Bank and more than 13,561 wounded. At least 10 Americans are feared to be held captive by Hamas

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Over 500 of the approximately 7000+ rockets launched by Hamas et al failed to reach Israel and fell back into Gaza since start of hostilities on Oct 7th.

Israel distributed more fliers in n Gaza urging civilians to flee south.

Reports that IAF airstrikes have been on the increase.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Heavy Israeli shelling continues in southern Lebanon, especially in Aita, Yaroun, Bint Jbeil and Al-Dahira. This comes after an attack was heard deep into Southern Lebanon, in Jezzine, for the first time since the destructive 2006 war. It is believed that IAF hit Hezbollah ammo dumps. Israeli bombing reached a depth of 5 km inside the Lebanese border.

US Secretary of State warns Lebanon’s Prime Minister of the impact on Lebanon if it is “drawn into the conflict”
Blinken indicated concern about the ‘escalation of tension on the southern Lebanese border’
This comes hours after Lebanon requests a 48-hour cease fire from Israel.

Israel expects Hezbollah to expand intensity & range of rocket fire in coming days; IDF ready for possible shift to Lebanon as primary war zone; massive Israeli forces have been deployed on northern front

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian News Agency - Israeli bombs targeted Damascus and Aleppo airports, putting them out of service.

The Commander of the “Quds Force” of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ismail Qa’ani has reportedly arrived in Syria today in order to “Supervise” the Pro-Iranian militias which are claimed to be on high alert along the Western Syrian Border with Israel.

WEST BANK——————————-

The Israeli Defense Force has announced that the Explosion earlier tonight at the Al-Ansari Mosque within the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank was the result of a joint-operation and Aairstrike between the IDF as well as Shin Bet on a underground-terror compound beneath the Mosque which was being used by both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to prepare an Imminent terrorist attack.

NOTE - The terrorist organizations have been well established as locating their bases, supplies and rocket launchers in such facilities including schools, hospitals and other traditionally ‘off limits’ sites. Some have stated that Hamas is not located on the West Bank, those making those statements are woefully ignorant or willingly putting forth false stories.

**
Israeli army, the Shin Bet and the Mageb operated overnight in many centers throughout the Judea and Samaria Division to counter terrorism and arrested 46 wanted persons suspected of involvement in terrorist activities

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egypt and Jordan harshly criticized Israel over its actions in Gaza at a summit on Saturday, a sign that the two Western allies that made peace with Israel decades ago are losing patience with its war against Hamas.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed Gaza in phone call with the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, on Saturday.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Getting old already, but the ground assault is still imminent. Israel is entering a danger zone in further delays. Combat readiness for critical operations begin to fall off after extended periods of high alert status. It is evident that Hamas’ tried and true dribble out the hostage releases to delay ground operations has gained a little traction with the US and some European countries. Perhaps even to rumors that the Israeli war govt is in dispute on launching the ground war. Such rumors may be out there to put Hamas off guard, thinking they have dodged the assault.

A valid point of delay in the start of the war is shaping the battle field in Lebanon against Hezbollah - who is almost guaranteed to step in once Israeli boots hit the ground in Gaza. This two front war is one contingency that Israel has been known to be planning for. Adjusting for current conditions seem to be indicating that Israel is ready to launch larger scale preemptive airstrikes to weaken Hezbollah rocket and combat capabilities.

Iran –

Unconfirmed reports of explosions at the headquarters of the Iranian Defense Forces in Ashrat Abad, the capital of Iran, Tehran. Video posted to the interwebs show flashes and explosions. I’ve been unable to confirm this event.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

Assad forces continue to hammer Aleppo and the Idlib regions with heavy artillery fire.

A drone attack was reported against Al-Harir Air Base in the Erbil Region of northwestern Iraq which houses a number of U.S. troops; this is likely the second attack on U.S. Forces in Iraq by the “Islamic Resistance of Iraq.”

See Israel above on more strikes on Damascus and Aleppo airports.

Black Swans

South Africa has had to cull about 7.5 million chickens to contain dozens of outbreaks caused by two different strains of avian influenza. “They’re dying like flies. This year’s bird flu outbreaks are the worst that South Africa has witnessed and has already caused shortages of table eggs and poultry meat in the market,” leading poultry producer Astral Food said in a trading update.

OBSERVATION - The US has just pulled out of a two year period of bird flu that decimated flocks across the country. Concern is that this strain could make it to the US as the bird flu season is starting here.

Home here in the Redoubt is looking at its first major snow and cold of the season. Forecasts now of 6-7 inches of snow with potential lows reaching 0 degrees. Double checking my cold weather SAR equipment tonight as hunting season is in full swing and weather may catch some hunters unawares.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) wants to import European elites’ censorship here, as he is demanding Big Tech step up its censorship during the Hamas-Israel conflict—in accord with anti-free speech European Union demands.

Sen. Bennet wrote an Oct. 17 letter to the CEOs of four Big Tech companies: Shou Zi Chew (TikTok), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta—Facebook/Instagram), Elon Musk (X/Twitter), and Sundar Pichai (Google/YouTube). In it, Bennet hysterically accused the tech companies of allowing and amplifying “deceptive content” after cutting back on censorship staff.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/catherinesalgado/2023/10/21/dem-senator-joins-eu-in-demanding-big-tech-censor-more-n1736847

OBSERVATION - Control of information is critical for the globalist agenda - only their version of ‘truth’ is to be allowed and all other silenced. As has been made very clear since the wuhan plandemic, the govt is the primary source of misinformation, and went out of its way to censor (and squash) information that we now know to be true. Bennet is a creature of the deep state and a puppet for the globalist masters.

Economy –

OPEC is forecasting that the global oil supply shortfall will increase to more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter. Voluntary OPEC production cuts are removing 1.3 million barrels of oil supply every day through December.

OBSERVATION - This will keep fuel prices on the upward trend. This may be mitigated to some degree by now unsanctioned Iran flooding the market with cheaper oil. However, should the Gaza war mutate and draw Iran into the mix, it may take action to block oil to the west - creating a tremendous disruption in oil supplies and a shock to oil prices.

IN RELATED - Total U.S. petroleum production climbed to 13.2 million barrels a day as of week ended Oct. 6, according to the Energy Information Administration — the highest figure based on data going back to 1983. The latest data released Wednesday showed output remained unchanged at that level for the week ended Oct. 13. Where there is a will (backed by $$$) there is a way.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

This won’t come as a shock to you, but nearly everything you were told about the George Floyd case and the conviction of police officer Derek Chauvin was a lie. Newly released court documents now confirm that George Floyd died from a fentanyl overdose, not from asphyxiation.
In other words, George Floyd was not murdered.

OBSERVATION - Not sure just how much of a chance this may give for an appeal of the sentence, but does illustrate the negative power of the left to essentially lynch a target victim to support the wild destruction by its minions. He did not get a fair trial, he got a political kangaroo court conviction.

****
In some ways this feels like the calm before the storm. Pro-Hamas protests are present, but creating an imminent danger. That could switch at any moment once Israel enters Gaza. American Jews are buying guns and ammo at an increased rates, in response to the clear threats being made at these ‘peaceful’ protests.
There are just so many fuzes that have been lit, which one will set an explosion off first?

Terrorism -

According to an unclassified Customs and Border Protection (CBP) internal memo, the San Diego Field Intelligence Unit of the CBP said foreign fighters and mercenaries with ties to Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or Hamas could cross the southwest border into the United States.

Real numbers echo that. Terrorist watch list stops have soared at U.S. borders in fiscal year 2023. According to data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection on Saturday there have been a total of 736 terrorist suspects stopped at the border in that period.

The data shows that 564 of those encounters occurred at land border ports of entry while 172 encounters occurred between ports of entry.
By comparison, fiscal year 2020 saw a total of 199 terrorist suspects stopped at the border, and in FY 2021 the total was 173. In FY 2022 the total was 478.

This does not include “get aways”.

OBSERVATION - Terrorists have been pushing across the border for quite some time now. The essentially open border policies has only enabled such infiltration to a massive degree - See Illegals Immigration below on the explosion of numbers.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Still trying to pin down where the THAAD systems are going to be placed. My best estimate at this stage would be to cover US Navy bases in the Persian Gulf region with Patriots providing additional coverage of forces in the western Iraq/eastern Syria region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

There are reports of a growing rift between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine factions in the State Department that will likely grow should Israel invade Gaza and the US continue to support Israel. Director of Congressional and Public Affairs Josh Paul resigned over U.S. support for Israel reflects this discord.

****
Republicans are to caucus today to select a new candidate for speaker. 10 names are currently in the running.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The world burns while biden worries about sunburn.

Illegal Immigration –

The biden immigration policy has been an unmitigated disaster. CBP reports there were 269,735 migrant encounters at the southern border in September, making it the highest single month ever recorded. CBP reports fiscal year 2023 now finishes with 2.47 million encounters, also the highest annual total ever recorded in a single year.

FY’23 - 2,475,669
FY’22 - 2,378,944
FY’21 - 1,734,686
FY’20 (Trump) - 458,088

See also terrorism above.

China –

Yesterday I noted three Chinese warship in the Arabian Sea region. Press continued to report 6, so I found reference to the other three.

The 44th and 45th Chinese naval escort task forces have been deployed for 6 months. They conducted a farewell ceremony in the western waters of the Gulf of Aden after completing joint escort and mission handover on October 2, 2023.
Before the ceremony, the two escort task forces conducted a joint escort to further familiarize themselves with the organization procedures and emergency handling of escort operations. After the ceremony, the 44th escort task force is scheduled to carry out visits and joint exercises with Oman and Kuwait.

The 45th escort task force, consisting of
1x Type 052D destroyer Ürümqi (118)
1x Type 054A frigate Linyi (547)
1x Type 903A replenishment ship

The six Chinese warships have been stationed in the area since May for regular operations. It is misleading to suggest that this deployment is a response to the presence of US warships or the Gaza war.

Basically, 4 actual warships and 2 tenders/supply vessels.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Russian Personnel Issues –-
It been a while since Russian losses have been estimated. Most recent estimates indicate that Russian has suffered 150-190k permanent losses (deaths and wounds that permanently take the soldier out of combat) & 240-290k temporary losses - NOT including Wagners losses.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 drones and 1 Kh-59 cruise missile overnight. Small numbers in comparison to past attacks, but the largest in a number of days. Target areas were central Ukraine and the Odesa regions.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses. UK Defense Ministry says storming of Avdeevka has increased Russian casualties by 90%. Over a 10 days, the Russian army has lost 201 pieces of equipment, according to data from the OSINT project Oryx (Oryx only counts confirmed kills, so their count is considered to be minimal losses). Russian losses over the past 10 days include 42 tanks, 49 infantry fighting vehicles and 10 armored personnel carriers.

The loss of APCs apparently has forced Russian to bring infantry in via cargo trucks. Videos from yesterday show a column of such trucks driving fast towards the front with only a few APCs to provide support. Russia is increasingly relying on ‘meat attacks’ in efforts to break the Ukraine defenses. These dismounted attacks continue to be decimated by Ukraine artillery which includes cluster munitions.

Continued on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. No significant gains for either side.

Kherson Axis -
Evidence of two crossing points on the Dniper River and pushing outward. Russia is desperately trying to cauterize the breakthroughs with a lot of fix wing attacks, which have increased their the number of planes being shot down.

Crimean front —
Heavy explosions in Russian-occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Unclear what is the cause, but judging from the explosions, most likely a major ammo dump was hit.. The Kerch bridge has been closed, possibly as a precaution.

OUTLOOK -
Ukraine is turning Avdiivka into another Bakhmut for Russia, except that Ukrainian defenses are far more resilient and solid. Russia has been attempting to take the town since 2014. Replacement of APCs by armor-less trucks is a bad sign for Russia - far easier to kill as they trundle to the front on well established roads - and dialed in Ukrainian artillery.

The Kerch Bridge is also the next biggie on the Ukranian hit parade. Put out of action twice now, I expect that it will be targeted again for a knock out blow soon. British cruise missiles are the weapon available to Ukraine at the moment as the ATACAMS missiles are only armed with cluster munitions, and not a single HE warhead necessary to take out a bridge. That Ukraine is able to continue to hit major targets in Crimea indicates Russian air defense is still suffering from previous strikes.

Europe / NATO General –

Swiss People’s Party, which campaigned against mass migration and “woke madness”, is projected to be the big winner in the Swiss federal elections, while the left-wing Green Party is the big loser.

OBSERVATION - Switzerland and other smaller nations in Europe have been hammered by these ‘migrants’ who’ve refused to assimilate into the culture but instead have established “no go” zones where they re-establish the same hell holes from which they reputedly fled from. Some European govts are now looking at mass deportations of migrants who cause trouble. Will boil into turbulent times as that is going to be a substantial number.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Rumors of another hostage release, didn’t pan out.
Israel launched several recon in force operations across N Gaza.

GENERAL ——————————-

US and EU are still pressing Israel to delay its ground operations in order to give hostage negotiations by Qatar a chance to prove out.. However, that effort now appears to be drying up.

***
Israel is promising to cut off “the head of the snake” and launch a military attack against Iran if Hezbollah — its proxy terror group in Lebanon — gets involved in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

In an fiery interview Sunday with The Mail, Nir Barkat, Israel’s minister of economy, declared Iran’s ayatollahs will be “wiped off the face of the earth” if Hezbollah goes on the attack against Israel — escalating the regional conflict.

OBSERVATION - Israel and Iran playing a dangerous game of chicken now. Iran via Hezbollah has promised involvement if Israel proceeds with its ground assault into Gaza. Israel OTOH appears to promise to hit Iran (or Iranian assets/leadership) should Hezbollah launch a full scale attack.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense airstrikes northern Gaza tonight as the IDF continues to dismantle Hamas threats ahead of its likely imminent major ground operations. IDF says it hit some 320 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, including tunnels where operatives were hiding, and several mortar and ATGM positions. Reports from Gaza that the airstrikes this evening are some of the most intense ones felt since the beginning of the war, reports of many dead and wounded.

Hamas still manages to get a few rocket barrages out but with increasing periods of time between them. Aerial imagery on the interwebs show how Hamas et al sets up their rocket launch sites adjacent to schools, religious buildings and even a UN facility.

***
IDF launched recon in force operations overnight. Israel says its forces went west of the Gaza Strip fence on Sunday to clear the area of terrorists and weapons, and try and find hostages. According to the IDF, missiles were fired at them by Hamas - and one IDF soldier was killed and three others injured
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari says Israel carried out more raids into Gaza overnight. Hagari said: “During the night there were raids by tank and infantry forces. These raids are raids that kill squads of terrorists who are preparing for the next stage in the war. These are raids that go deep, to the contact line. These raids also locate and search for anything we can get in terms of intelligence on the missing and the hostages”

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF says that overnight it struck more Hezbollah targets and terrorists in southern Lebanon, this morning struck more terrorists that attempted at firing ATGMs.

***
Reports of an IDF airstrike against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon after a surface-to-air missile targeted one of its fighter planes.

WEST BANK——————————-

More than 30 Hamas operatives were arrested in raids across the West Bank last night.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Lloyd Austin - we’ve seen rocket & UAV attacks against bases housing our troops in Iraq and Syria. We’re concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we’re seeing is a is the prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region

***
European Union - “The two-state solution remains the only viable solution.”
NOTE - Israel was formed under a two-state solution and was immediately attacked by surrounding arab forces.

***
Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators are marching in London, Barcelona, Los Angeles, and other cities.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I’ve said it a lot, the ground wor will start soon. Israel is likely getting heavy pressure to delay from the US and Europe based on the Hamas ‘hostage release and negotiations’ game they always play, and successfully in the past.
All the pieces are in place for Israel. The vast majority of civilians in N Gaza have fled, IAF has targeted Hamas et al positions in a way not seen before. The recon in force actions exposed Hamas response plans/operations, permitting targeting of terrorist troop concentrations and Israel is preparing the northern front to discourage Hezbollah from getting involved.

The urgency of US preparations in the region also suggests that Israel is going ahead with the invasion and soon.

The actual invasion is a critical point in the war. Will Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria hold to their promise to attack or not. That action will determine if Israel reaches out to Iran in a punitive strike. Things can go down hill quickly from there.

Iran –

More threats against Israel should they go ahead with the invasion of Gaza.

Iraq -

U.S. has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq due to increased security threats. The State Department also issued a travel advisory to US citizens, warning them not to go to the Middle Eastern country. “Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and Mission Iraq’s limited capacity to provide support to US citizens,” read the advisory.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Central / South America General-

The leftist government’s candidate and failed Economy Minister Sergio Massa “unexpectedly” won the first round of voting in Argentina on Sunday.
The two top candidates will hold a runoff election.
Wildly popular Libertarian candidate Javier Milei was expected to win on Sunday but it was not to be. Milei split votes with another right-wing candidate during the first round. Milei remains the favorite in the runoff.

OBSERVATION - This election is running counter to the leftist trend in many other central - south American countries.

Pretty good winter storm bearing down now. Battening down the hatches and lighting up the fire place.

Economy –

Well, as if there isn’t anything better to do, the United Auto Workers union is expanding its strike of the three major U.S. automakers to a Stellantis plant that produces Ram full-size pickup trucks. The work stoppage includes roughly 6,800 workers at Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in suburban Detroit. It marks the first escalation in the union’s strike in nearly two weeks and the first new work stoppage at Stellantis in over a month.

The United Auto Workers’ simultaneous, but limited, strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis has now cost the U.S. economy over $9 billion, which is more than twice the previous record for an auto industry strike this century.

OBSERVATION - UAW is not dropping its demands or seeking any compromise. As the strike expands, expect the cost to the economy to increase as well. Not a good thing as evidence continues to point to a 2024 recession.

***
Americans are falling behind on their auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades due to higher car prices and borrowing costs, according to Fitch Ratings. The percentage of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans increased to 6.1% in September – the highest rate since 1994.

OBSERVATION - the retention of record high Fed prime rates and their impact on the broader market is only going to get worse, especially if the Fed continues to raise rates, as recent discussions suggest.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Growing violence associated with these pro-Hamas protests

Yesterday, a pro-Palestine mob attacked a Christian man in Skokie, Illinois. He was helping elderly Jewish people escape from protestors.

Zach Metzger, the leftist Minneapolis city council candidate (Democrat) & participant in the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots that torched neighborhoods, is revealed to be among the pro-Palestine mob that surrounded and attacked an elderly driver. This protest used intimidation tactics developed by Antifa et al of stopping cars and attempting to assault the driver/passengers. The escalation of violence using this tactic is concerning.

The pro-hamas group has built upon the 2020 use of these traffic blocks. They have added drones to provide overwatch / command and control; placement of vehicles to strengthen the blockade; squad type hand radios for key forces and developed ‘chase’ elements to go after and try to stop vehicles that push thru the blockade. The link below is from the Minnesota blockade of yesterday where you can see these elements laid out.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9LG7wYb0AAmcxF?format=jpg&name=medium

As I said, the level of violence associated with this tactic is high. So too is the planning and coordination by key elements that only need the presence of the useful idiots to inflame the situation. The terrorist/protestors will probably increase the use of guns for greater intimidation while citizens go to guns as well for self defense. We saw this cycle up during the 2020 riots.

Antifa backed terror protestors will likely accelerate other forms of violence as the war progresses.

***
Students at Auburn Riverside High School were attacked by organized groups of masked men as they ran through the halls.
Fox 13 News reported that “the five people approached a side door of the school building around 1 p.m., which was locked while class is in session,” but “a student opened the door for them, thinking they were supposed to be on campus.” (wrong, he was likely a gang wanna be)
After the school went on lockdown, local police were allowed to provide security for the students.
More than 500 students were kept home from school after last Monday’s attack.
In the Ballard section of Seattle, gangs of masked and armed robbers have lain in wait for students walking home and robbed them of wallets, money, and cell phones. The same thing happened to students walking home from the nearby Whitman Middle School.
Students report being jumped and mugged by four to six armed gangsters, according to KOMO News.

OBSERVATION - Collapse of society is accelerating and the will to actually take back the streets. Notice that police were “allowed to provide security” wait, what? Get out of blue cities, they are in the process of imploding. Dystopia is now here.

Terrorism -

There is no evidence of a hate crime in the murder of Samantha Woll, a beloved synagogue president and founder of the Muslim-Jewish Forum of Detroit, Detroit Police Chief James White said, according to USA Today.

OBSERVATION - Currently, radical moslems are part of the ‘protected’ class and likely never to be publicly acknowledged for this act.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Aircraft watchers have noted overnight of a large number of bombers, tankers and other aircraft in the air over the S Cal region. Others noted tankers headed over the Pacific and a pair of bombers headed towards England. No formal announcement from the Pentagon though some think it is part of a planned exercise.

***
RUMINT. Iranian Propaganda Channels claimed hat the Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer, USS Carney (DDG-64) was attacked. Never happened. Word of caution: A senior U.S. defense official said today that they are dealing w/ an “acute” environment of disinformation, w/ claims of attacks on U.S. forces in Middle East that have not happened.

***
According to a report published by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, the U.S. is “ill-prepared” for an “existential threat” of two peer nuclear adversaries.

***
The United States is deploying a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The system will reportedly be positioned in an undisclosed location near the eastern Mediterranean. Some reports suggest that western Iraq and Jordan may be likely locations.

***
CBS is reporting that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and its strike group — which last weekend Austin had announced was being deployed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to join the USS Gerald R. Ford — will instead be heading to the Persian Gulf, Austin disclosed Saturday. The Ike is currently in the mid Atlantic region and will have to transit thru the Suez Canal and sail past the hostile Houthi’s to get to station. This could take as much as a couple of weeks.

USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), a destroyer in the Gerald R. Ford CSG, transited the Suez Canal to Red Sea and CENTCOM area of responsibility, likely to reinforce USS Carney (DDG-64). This suggests that destroyers currently with the Ford could be exchanged for some of the Ike’s destroyers as it transits the Suez Canal as well.

The sudden shift of the Ike to the CENTCOM region is a bit of a surprise since the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. It could be easily redirected further west to form a two carrier task force in the Persian Gulf region.

The Reagan CSG continues to operate in areas close to Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - Sudden nuke bomber activity combined with a shift to more directly threaten Iran and its proxy forces in the region has raised my eyebrows some. Apart from news surrounding the Ike, these other actions are seemingly being kept low key.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The GOP House speaker election gets underway on Tuesday with 8 candidates after the conclusion of a closed-door candidates forum on Monday night. The declared candidates include Republican Reps. Jack Bergman, Mich., Byron Donalds, Fla., Tom Emmer, Minn., Kevin Hern, Okla., Mike Johnson, La. Gary Palmer, Ala., Austin Scott, Ga. and Pete Sessions, Texas.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden’s schizophrenic Israel / Hamas policies have created a widening split in the democrat party into pro-Israel and pro-Hamas (terror) sections.

China –

See Europe / NATO General below regarding Estonia and Chinese ship “Newnew PolarBear” suspected espionage.

****
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday curbed exports of graphite, a critical mineral used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). The move could make a shortage of graphite more likely at a time when worldwide EV demand is soaring.
China last year accounted for close to two-thirds of global production of graphite and all but 2% of spherical graphite output, the final product used in anodes for lithium-ion batteries

OBSERVATION - For the past many years, China has maneuvered to gain a chokehold on strategic minerals and production. This effort accelerated with wuhan and the realignment of global economy post wuhan. This has the potential to crush the mandated shift to EVs here and around the world.

***
CNN — China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu was fired on Tuesday two months after he disappeared from public view, becoming the second high-profile minister to lose his job recently without any official explanation.

The disappearance and dismissal of two senior ministers in quick succession has raised questions about the governance of Xi, who has made China’s political system even more opaque as he concentrates power and enforces strict party discipline.
Xi has also ramped up a campaign to bolster national security, seeking to eliminate any perceived threats and vulnerabilities to the ruling Communist Party amid rising tensions with the West.

OBSERVAITON - XI faces a potential economic melt down while maneuvering to take over Taiwan. He has to surround himself with absolute loyalists to avoid any kind of a coup should the economic bottom fall out before moving on Taiwan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Analysts/Observers are noting that in spite of the substantial losses in the campaign to take Avdiivka, Russian high command continues to make the push, raising some questions as to how much does putin know about the situation there.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones in Vinnytsia, Khmelnitsky and Mykolaiv regions. Relative very low activity.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses. They did manage to made slight gains to the NE of the town.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Tokmak Axis -.
Under the cover of heavy fog and intense artillery, Ukraine conducted a surprise offensive strike against the Russian lines between Robotyne and Kopani. Ukraine tanks, Bradleys and infantry advanced with heavy fighting. Russian sources stated the the fog made it nearly impossible to locate targets and direct fire on them.
Fog=Nature’s Smoke Screen, NATO Armor + Thermal Imagery and Sights

Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children has been announced for 25 towns all along the right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Ukraine forces still maintain three crossing sites and continue to hold against Russian attacks to drive them back. Some rumors that Ukraine may stage an air assault operation to expand and break thru Russian defenses.

Crimean front —
Russian authorities reported drone attack in Sevastopol.

OUTLOOK -
With details continuing to be foggy, Avdiivka still is the focus of considerable Russian efforts while Ukraine threatens to expand its bridgeheads across the Dniper River. Some slowdown is apparent as an extended period of rain is expected which will slow some operations down considerably.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Govt sources state that 22 Russian media websites will be blocked in Moldova. Among them are RT, Zvezda and Tsargrad.

Europe / NATO General –

Turkish President Erdogan has submitted the the protocol for Sweden’s admission to NATO. It needs to be ratified by the Turkish Parliament, but that it is only a formality.

***
Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announces it has contacted the Chinese authorities to encourage them to cooperate in the investigation into the damages caused on the Balticconnector gas pipeline.

The Chinese-owned container ship Newnew PolarBear is the main suspect

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Hamas released two more hostages, very elderly women, who were beaten before being dragged into the Hamas tunnel network. Hamas says two women released for ‘humanitarian reasons and poor health grounds’.

GENERAL ——————————-

Midst cries of no fuel for hospital generators, Hamas holds onto multiple thousands of gallons of fuel.
The propaganda war continues at peak intensity. Israel held a special viewing of the unedited body cam videos taken by the Hamas terrorists of the Oct 7 attack for journalists. Included was security camera footage. Journalists were generally shocked at the level of violence and cruelty. Hamas OTOH, continues to play the victim in numerous outlets on the interwebs as well as complaint global news networks.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Fire was exchanged between IDF and Hamas terrorists near the border, Al Maghazi, eastern Gaza overnight. Initial reports suggested that his could be the start of ground ops. However, later information suggested that this was another, but strong, recon in force by IDF.

Aircraft and artillery continued to grind away on targets in Gaza. Hamas et al return rocket fire continues to be considerably suppressed.

Hamas claims to have 35,000 fighters in the Gaza Strip.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continues the harassing ATGM fire on Israeli troops as well as attacking the Mt Doc site. Israel continues to pound Hezbollah / southern Lebanon with air and artillery strikes.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, has issued a threatening statement, declaring that they are prepared to launch missile strikes directly at Haifa if deemed necessary.

Macron - Hezbollah is on the verge of war, and we understand the emerging challenges in this regard

WEST BANK——————————-

Scattered fighting between West Bank arabs and Israeli police as more Hamas affiliated terrorists are arrested.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

French President Emmanuel Macron proposed on Tuesday that an international coalition fighting against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria be widened to include the fight against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

The U.S. Department of Defense stated tonight that there is a high possibility that security conditions for our interests in the Middle East will continue to deteriorate.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I’ve said it a lot, the ground war will start soon. There is a lot of speculation as to what the hold up is. In part it seems biden is trying to let Hamas play its game of dribbling out hostages to show just how wonderful they are. Other reports are that biden asked for a delay to get US military forces prepositioned to respond to Iran if necessary. This could ultimately stretch out for a couple weeks, and it seems Israel is ready to go sooner rather than later. Indicators are that the US considers current force deployment nominal and reinforcements will be arriving in a timely manner should Iran get froggy.

Iran –

US has intel that Iran-backed groups are planning to ramp up attacks on US troops in the Middle East as Iran seeks to capitalize on backlash to US support of Israel. There are “red lights flashing everywhere,” official said

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Reports of explosions at both the Al-Tanaf and Al-Omar bases in Syria used by coalition troops. Early indications of another attack. IRGC backed militias continue to target bases in Syria and Iraq and without any U.S response as yet.

The US is shifting to war footing one step at a time. The deployment of two aircraft carrier CSGs (with a potential third that could be reassigned from the Indo-Pacific region) along with 120 combat aircraft (and use of long range, strategic bombers) that will be within easy striking distance of Iran is pointing to such a scenario. This sudden pivot against Iran is shocking considering that the regime has spent nearly 3 years brown nosing the Imans in Tehran, trying to purchase favor.

The longer the Israeli-Hamas war goes on, the greater the chance that the violence will escalate and spread. This is exactly what Hamas is hoping for and what their paymasters in Tehran have been planning for. This also brings with it increased speculation on Israeli use of nukes against Iran.

This is all set in the backdrop of ongoing global turmoil - Ukraine war, political upheaval, foreshocks of economic disaster, internal ethnic / migrant violence, etc. In all my life these factors have not converged in such a manner we are seeing today. Some on the conspiracy theorist side of “will there even be a 2024 election” have good basis for their concerns and observations. Things continue to strain. Kinda like the videos recently on the interwebs of young people wrapping rubberbands around a watermelon until it reaches point where it explodes. Don’t know which rubber band will trigger the explosion, but another is added until - splat - it explodes.

All trends continue to point to a major convergence, one I though would be last year, but more rubber bands have been added. Will 2024 be the year?

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) proposed new data collection requirements on cryptocurrency service providers in late August, which gave citizens and companies a 30 October deadline to comment before implementing the new rules. The IRS proposal states that some platforms “have a policy of not requesting customer information or requesting only limited information [but] have the ability to obtain information about their customers by updating their protocols.”

OBSERVATION - Being a good minion, the IRS supports the global efforts to kill crypto - desiring to replace it with their mutated CBDC ploy. They cannot control the population with alternatives to their currency still in play, so they will seek to have their subordinates, like the IRS regulate it to death.

Economy –

On October 19, Reuters reported that Biden’s administration was looking to purchase six million barrels of oil in order to replenish the strategic oil reserves which have dwindled to their lowest levels in 40 years. While replenishing these reserves is a necessary undertaking, the differential in oil prices raises the question of why the administration has waited until now to take action.
According to Reuters, the administration is looking to purchase the oil at a price of $79 dollars per barrel, which represents a nine-dollar increase over the earlier preferred purchase price.

OBSERVATION - Besides the higher price, this purchase would do very little to relieve the dangerously low reserve level, currently estimated to be about 17 days worth.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Anti-Israel, pro-Hamas protests are growing in number and violence. I expect that this next weekend will see a serous escalation in numbers and levels of violence as protests begin to incorporate tactics used by Antifa et al in 2020.

Terrorism -

Individuals on the TERROR WATCHLIST caught trying to cross into the US:

2019: 0
2020: 3
2021: 15
2022: 98
2023: 169

OBSERVATION - Never fear, our border is secure /s

***
During a test run for a CSX employee appreciation day, a train hit an obstruction on the track and temporarily derailed before the wheels dropped back into place.

The seemingly mysterious accident quickly became a concerning issue when employees continued to find more “purposefully placed” materials along the tracks, which matched methods taught by international terrorist groups to make homemade derail devices, court documents say.
The investigation led to Cleveland man Joseph Findley, 43, who was arrested and charged with terrorist attacks against railroad carriers.

OBSERVATION - No motive for the sabotage has been given. This does illustrate that vast portions of our infrastructure are vulnerable to terrorist acts of one kind or another.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

More clarity on the ongoing military deployments. Via the WSJ: The air-defense systems are being deployed to Iraq, Syria (US controlled areas in the east) and the Gulf, U.S. officials said. The Pentagon is sending a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, to Saudi Arabia, and Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

***
“Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in a series of drone attacks at American bases in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command told NBC News on Tuesday.”
NOTE - There has been no retaliatory strikes by the US in response - dangerous as it indicates the forces are ‘weak’ and invites more attacks.

***
More U.S. Air Force F-16s arrived in the Middle East, the service announced Oct. 24, as threats to American forces in the region continue to grow.
The New Jersey Air National Guard’s 119th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron’s arrival in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) region increases the Air Force’s fighter footprint in the Middle East to six squadrons. U.S. bases in the Middle East have begun to come under attack from militia groups aligned with Iran, and officials have voiced concerned about possible region-wide escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.

The F-16 Fighting Falcons are part of a broader package of forces that have deployed after Hamas’ attack on Israel. F-15Es from RAF Lakenheath, U.K., and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., have already arrived in the region to bolster the U.S. Air Force presence.
AFCENT now operates three F-16 squadrons, two A-10 squadrons, and an F-15 squadron “alongside several strategic airlift, aerial refueling, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms,” according to the release.

POLITICAL FRONT –

House Republicans nominated House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) for Speaker on Tuesday, making him the third GOP lawmaker who will attempt to get 217 votes to secure the gavel. At that time Democrats were saying they will help get Emmer over the finish line.

Then a little more than 4 hours later, Emmer has dropped out of the Speaker race. Wait what

Rep. Mike Johnson R-LA was then nominated for Speaker: “Democracy is messy sometimes, but it is our system. This conference that you see, this House Republican majority, is united.”

Full House vote scheduled for today.

OBSERVATION - Emmer garnered even more no votes than previous nominees and add to the fact that he was closer to being a pelosi than conservative republican without Trump’s endorsement probably collapsed the house of cards for the eGOP rather quickly. Johnson OTOH is a Trump supporter with relatively solid conservative creds. Today’s question will be does he get the full support of the republican caucus or will the RINOS try to sabotage the effort.

Illegal Immigration –

Texas is suing the Biden administration to stop Border Patrol from cutting state razor wire installed by the Texas National Guard along the border.
It’s illegal to destroy state property.

China –

See “Europe / NATO General” below re: the Newnew Polar Bear.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

The Federation Council approved the law on the abolition of informing the Secretary General of the Council of Europe about the introduction of a state of emergency or martial law in Russia.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

The Federation Council approved the law on the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Logistics –
Russia appears to be increasingly supplementing the use of Shahed-131/136 drones with cheaper and lighter domestically produced drone variants during strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. These drones are reported to be harder to detect and shoot down.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia reportedly has around 400,000 soldiers in the Ukraine war zone.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense claims to have shot down 11 of 11 Shahed drones, launched by Russia. However, others apparently made their way into central/western Ukraine.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense forces claim have partial success to the west of Verbove.

Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine continues the push on the southern margin of Bakhmut with some success.

Kherson Axis -
Russian counterattacks against the Ukrainian bridgeheads have been unsuccessful

Crimean front —
Explosions were audible in Nizhnehorsky district of Crimea. At least 2 explosions were reported in Sevastopol before air alert sounded, one of explosion was audible up to Bakhcysarai

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Drones reported in central Ukraine, air alerts in Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. Hit targets in the vicinity of Khmelnitsky NPP overnight, damaging powerlines and causing a partial blackout in Netishyn and Slavuta towns of Khmelnitsky region

OUTLOOK -
Status quo mostly as weather begins to serious affect operations on both sides. Avdiivka is growing as a major Russia objective but also a major meat grinder. Initial reports that Ukraine has ordered the remaining civilians out of the town.

Europe / NATO General –

The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.

Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Baltic connector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair. At press conference just now, Finnish investigators released the first subsea images of the Baltic connector pipeline damage site, along with images of the “extremely heavy object” they found near the pipeline and subsequently recovered, being an anchor.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

IAF hit targets in Syria.

GENERAL ——————————-

Secretary of State Blinken calls for a two-state solution at the UN.

“The only way to break out of this horrific cycle of violence is through two states for two peoples. As President Biden has underscored from day one, Palestinians deserve equal measures of security, of freedom, of justice, of opportunity, of dignity, and Palestinians have a right to self-determination and a status of their own.”

“Even as we address this immediate crisis, we all agree that we must redouble our collective efforts to build an enduring political solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the only road to lasting peace and security in the region.”

OBSERVATION - Doubly bad move. The arabs rejected a two state solution in 1947 and immediately attacked the newly created Israel.

***
“A cease fire right now is only going to benefit Hamas” per NSC spox John Kirby, briefing reporters at the White House

***
Growing calls internationally for a cease fire but there is no evidence that either Hamas or Israel want one at this time. Humanitarian ‘spokesmen’ in Gaza claim there is no fuel for hospital generators are being pointed to the existence of a Hamas fuel depot with reportedly a half million liters of fuel.

***

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Hamas et al managed several large barrages yesterday that caused little to no damage. IAF continued to destroy Hamas key command and logistic centers.

***
Observers report that the IAF air strikes have begun to have a different “feel” - subjectively suggesting that targeting is shifting more to attacking the underground network versus above ground buildings.

***
The Israeli army says it has conducted over 10,000 targeted strikes in Gaza since October 7th

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continued its harassment fire on IDF units and attacks on Mt Dov. IDF continues targeting Hezbollah firing positions and logistics.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IRGC QF is on high alert in eastern Syria, as well as central snd northwestern Iraq.

Israeli army dropped leaflets in Syria, warning the SAA members and commanders, it holds the SAA, especially the commander of the 112th brigades responsible for the rocket launches from Syria towards Israel. This follows the launch of 2 Rockets from Western Syria with both believed to have been heading towards the Golan Heights in Northern Israel however the they eventually landed in an empty field. Israeli Artillery is said to have opened-fire and destroyed the launch sites in Syria.

IRGC backed militias launched five rockets towards Israel from Syria earlier too. Reports all landed in open areas. Reports a large number of militias from Iraq and northeast Syria have moved towards the Israeli border regions this week.

In response, Israeli Defense Force fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian Army tonight in retaliation to yesterday’s rocket attacks towards Israel. Syrian State Media is reporting that a Headquarters for the 5th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army within the Town of Izra was dDestroyed by Israeli airstrikes; with further reports that a radar battalion and weapons depots of the Syrian air defense force were also targeted overnight near the Town of Qarfa.

WEST BANK——————————-

Heavy fighting was reported between the Israeli Defense Force and Militants within the City of Jenin in the West Bank

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq, aka “True Promise Brigades”, a smaller, lesser-known Iraqi group with ties to Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah, has announced they will target U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in response to “massacres committed by the occupation in Gaza”. Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq has previously conducted attacks on the UAE in 2022, and Saudi Arabia in 2021.
Washington Institute for Near-East Policy says the group could be under the direct control of Iran’s Quds Force.

***
Turkey’s Erdogan - “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a group of liberation and mujahideen fighting to protect their lands and citizens” He also announced the cancellation of all his plans to visit Israel.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - International efforts to delay Israel’s offensive are very apparent lately. Growing calls for ceasefire. However, it seems the biggest delay is due to a US request to allow it to get its military in the region ready for Iranian and Iranian backed militias ready. The pentagon has said that those preparations are largely in place, so the ground assault should be soon.

Israel is also being told it doesn’t know what it is doing by - of all people - US generals who haven’t a clue to the region or nature of the fight. I hope Israel says essentially “thank you for your opinion, now go stand in the corner and stay out of the way while the adults get to work”.

The situation is dynamic and can get very crazy in a moment.

Iran –

More threats against Israel and the US.

Iraq -

2 rockets struck the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq overnight which houses U.S. troops

OBSERVATION - Since the US has failed to respond, this is a sign of weakness that will encourage more attacks.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Israeli bombs targeted the eastern side of the runways of Aleppo International Airport with two missiles overnight. Main runway is reportedly damaged again, keeping the airport closed. Effort is to keep the airport closed to prevent Iran from flying in more military supplies for Iranian/Hezbollah forces in Syria.

OBSERVATION - The Aleppo and Damascus airports are critical for Iran to supply war materials to Hezbollah and Iranian backed units. Keeping them shut down forces them to rely on ground convoys, which are very vulnerable to airstrikes as well.

Turkey –

See Israel above.

Mexico -

.In the process of getting hammered by a Cat 5 hurricane - exceptionally rare for this time of year.

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