Pretty good winter storm bearing down now. Battening down the hatches and lighting up the fire place.
Economy –
Well, as if there isn’t anything better to do, the United Auto Workers union is expanding its strike of the three major U.S. automakers to a Stellantis plant that produces Ram full-size pickup trucks. The work stoppage includes roughly 6,800 workers at Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in suburban Detroit. It marks the first escalation in the union’s strike in nearly two weeks and the first new work stoppage at Stellantis in over a month.
The United Auto Workers’ simultaneous, but limited, strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis has now cost the U.S. economy over $9 billion, which is more than twice the previous record for an auto industry strike this century.
OBSERVATION - UAW is not dropping its demands or seeking any compromise. As the strike expands, expect the cost to the economy to increase as well. Not a good thing as evidence continues to point to a 2024 recession.
***
Americans are falling behind on their auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades due to higher car prices and borrowing costs, according to Fitch Ratings. The percentage of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans increased to 6.1% in September – the highest rate since 1994.
OBSERVATION - the retention of record high Fed prime rates and their impact on the broader market is only going to get worse, especially if the Fed continues to raise rates, as recent discussions suggest.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Growing violence associated with these pro-Hamas protests
Yesterday, a pro-Palestine mob attacked a Christian man in Skokie, Illinois. He was helping elderly Jewish people escape from protestors.
Zach Metzger, the leftist Minneapolis city council candidate (Democrat) & participant in the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots that torched neighborhoods, is revealed to be among the pro-Palestine mob that surrounded and attacked an elderly driver. This protest used intimidation tactics developed by Antifa et al of stopping cars and attempting to assault the driver/passengers. The escalation of violence using this tactic is concerning.
The pro-hamas group has built upon the 2020 use of these traffic blocks. They have added drones to provide overwatch / command and control; placement of vehicles to strengthen the blockade; squad type hand radios for key forces and developed ‘chase’ elements to go after and try to stop vehicles that push thru the blockade. The link below is from the Minnesota blockade of yesterday where you can see these elements laid out.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9LG7wYb0AAmcxF?format=jpg&name=medium
As I said, the level of violence associated with this tactic is high. So too is the planning and coordination by key elements that only need the presence of the useful idiots to inflame the situation. The terrorist/protestors will probably increase the use of guns for greater intimidation while citizens go to guns as well for self defense. We saw this cycle up during the 2020 riots.
Antifa backed terror protestors will likely accelerate other forms of violence as the war progresses.
***
Students at Auburn Riverside High School were attacked by organized groups of masked men as they ran through the halls.
Fox 13 News reported that “the five people approached a side door of the school building around 1 p.m., which was locked while class is in session,” but “a student opened the door for them, thinking they were supposed to be on campus.” (wrong, he was likely a gang wanna be)
After the school went on lockdown, local police were allowed to provide security for the students.
More than 500 students were kept home from school after last Monday’s attack.
In the Ballard section of Seattle, gangs of masked and armed robbers have lain in wait for students walking home and robbed them of wallets, money, and cell phones. The same thing happened to students walking home from the nearby Whitman Middle School.
Students report being jumped and mugged by four to six armed gangsters, according to KOMO News.
OBSERVATION - Collapse of society is accelerating and the will to actually take back the streets. Notice that police were “allowed to provide security” wait, what? Get out of blue cities, they are in the process of imploding. Dystopia is now here.
Terrorism -
There is no evidence of a hate crime in the murder of Samantha Woll, a beloved synagogue president and founder of the Muslim-Jewish Forum of Detroit, Detroit Police Chief James White said, according to USA Today.
OBSERVATION - Currently, radical moslems are part of the ‘protected’ class and likely never to be publicly acknowledged for this act.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft watchers have noted overnight of a large number of bombers, tankers and other aircraft in the air over the S Cal region. Others noted tankers headed over the Pacific and a pair of bombers headed towards England. No formal announcement from the Pentagon though some think it is part of a planned exercise.
***
RUMINT. Iranian Propaganda Channels claimed hat the Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer, USS Carney (DDG-64) was attacked. Never happened. Word of caution: A senior U.S. defense official said today that they are dealing w/ an “acute” environment of disinformation, w/ claims of attacks on U.S. forces in Middle East that have not happened.
***
According to a report published by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, the U.S. is “ill-prepared” for an “existential threat” of two peer nuclear adversaries.
***
The United States is deploying a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The system will reportedly be positioned in an undisclosed location near the eastern Mediterranean. Some reports suggest that western Iraq and Jordan may be likely locations.
***
CBS is reporting that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and its strike group — which last weekend Austin had announced was being deployed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to join the USS Gerald R. Ford — will instead be heading to the Persian Gulf, Austin disclosed Saturday. The Ike is currently in the mid Atlantic region and will have to transit thru the Suez Canal and sail past the hostile Houthi’s to get to station. This could take as much as a couple of weeks.
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), a destroyer in the Gerald R. Ford CSG, transited the Suez Canal to Red Sea and CENTCOM area of responsibility, likely to reinforce USS Carney (DDG-64). This suggests that destroyers currently with the Ford could be exchanged for some of the Ike’s destroyers as it transits the Suez Canal as well.
The sudden shift of the Ike to the CENTCOM region is a bit of a surprise since the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. It could be easily redirected further west to form a two carrier task force in the Persian Gulf region.
The Reagan CSG continues to operate in areas close to Taiwan.
OBSERVATION - Sudden nuke bomber activity combined with a shift to more directly threaten Iran and its proxy forces in the region has raised my eyebrows some. Apart from news surrounding the Ike, these other actions are seemingly being kept low key.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The GOP House speaker election gets underway on Tuesday with 8 candidates after the conclusion of a closed-door candidates forum on Monday night. The declared candidates include Republican Reps. Jack Bergman, Mich., Byron Donalds, Fla., Tom Emmer, Minn., Kevin Hern, Okla., Mike Johnson, La. Gary Palmer, Ala., Austin Scott, Ga. and Pete Sessions, Texas.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden’s schizophrenic Israel / Hamas policies have created a widening split in the democrat party into pro-Israel and pro-Hamas (terror) sections.
China –
See Europe / NATO General below regarding Estonia and Chinese ship “Newnew PolarBear” suspected espionage.
****
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday curbed exports of graphite, a critical mineral used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). The move could make a shortage of graphite more likely at a time when worldwide EV demand is soaring.
China last year accounted for close to two-thirds of global production of graphite and all but 2% of spherical graphite output, the final product used in anodes for lithium-ion batteries
OBSERVATION - For the past many years, China has maneuvered to gain a chokehold on strategic minerals and production. This effort accelerated with wuhan and the realignment of global economy post wuhan. This has the potential to crush the mandated shift to EVs here and around the world.
***
CNN — China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu was fired on Tuesday two months after he disappeared from public view, becoming the second high-profile minister to lose his job recently without any official explanation.
The disappearance and dismissal of two senior ministers in quick succession has raised questions about the governance of Xi, who has made China’s political system even more opaque as he concentrates power and enforces strict party discipline.
Xi has also ramped up a campaign to bolster national security, seeking to eliminate any perceived threats and vulnerabilities to the ruling Communist Party amid rising tensions with the West.
OBSERVAITON - XI faces a potential economic melt down while maneuvering to take over Taiwan. He has to surround himself with absolute loyalists to avoid any kind of a coup should the economic bottom fall out before moving on Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Analysts/Observers are noting that in spite of the substantial losses in the campaign to take Avdiivka, Russian high command continues to make the push, raising some questions as to how much does putin know about the situation there.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones in Vinnytsia, Khmelnitsky and Mykolaiv regions. Relative very low activity.
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses. They did manage to made slight gains to the NE of the town.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Under the cover of heavy fog and intense artillery, Ukraine conducted a surprise offensive strike against the Russian lines between Robotyne and Kopani. Ukraine tanks, Bradleys and infantry advanced with heavy fighting. Russian sources stated the the fog made it nearly impossible to locate targets and direct fire on them.
Fog=Nature’s Smoke Screen, NATO Armor + Thermal Imagery and Sights
Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children has been announced for 25 towns all along the right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Ukraine forces still maintain three crossing sites and continue to hold against Russian attacks to drive them back. Some rumors that Ukraine may stage an air assault operation to expand and break thru Russian defenses.
Crimean front —
Russian authorities reported drone attack in Sevastopol.
OUTLOOK -
With details continuing to be foggy, Avdiivka still is the focus of considerable Russian efforts while Ukraine threatens to expand its bridgeheads across the Dniper River. Some slowdown is apparent as an extended period of rain is expected which will slow some operations down considerably.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Govt sources state that 22 Russian media websites will be blocked in Moldova. Among them are RT, Zvezda and Tsargrad.
Europe / NATO General –
Turkish President Erdogan has submitted the the protocol for Sweden’s admission to NATO. It needs to be ratified by the Turkish Parliament, but that it is only a formality.
***
Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announces it has contacted the Chinese authorities to encourage them to cooperate in the investigation into the damages caused on the Balticconnector gas pipeline.
The Chinese-owned container ship Newnew PolarBear is the main suspect
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Hamas released two more hostages, very elderly women, who were beaten before being dragged into the Hamas tunnel network. Hamas says two women released for ‘humanitarian reasons and poor health grounds’.
GENERAL ——————————-
Midst cries of no fuel for hospital generators, Hamas holds onto multiple thousands of gallons of fuel.
The propaganda war continues at peak intensity. Israel held a special viewing of the unedited body cam videos taken by the Hamas terrorists of the Oct 7 attack for journalists. Included was security camera footage. Journalists were generally shocked at the level of violence and cruelty. Hamas OTOH, continues to play the victim in numerous outlets on the interwebs as well as complaint global news networks.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fire was exchanged between IDF and Hamas terrorists near the border, Al Maghazi, eastern Gaza overnight. Initial reports suggested that his could be the start of ground ops. However, later information suggested that this was another, but strong, recon in force by IDF.
Aircraft and artillery continued to grind away on targets in Gaza. Hamas et al return rocket fire continues to be considerably suppressed.
Hamas claims to have 35,000 fighters in the Gaza Strip.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continues the harassing ATGM fire on Israeli troops as well as attacking the Mt Doc site. Israel continues to pound Hezbollah / southern Lebanon with air and artillery strikes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, has issued a threatening statement, declaring that they are prepared to launch missile strikes directly at Haifa if deemed necessary.
Macron - Hezbollah is on the verge of war, and we understand the emerging challenges in this regard
WEST BANK——————————-
Scattered fighting between West Bank arabs and Israeli police as more Hamas affiliated terrorists are arrested.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
French President Emmanuel Macron proposed on Tuesday that an international coalition fighting against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria be widened to include the fight against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
The U.S. Department of Defense stated tonight that there is a high possibility that security conditions for our interests in the Middle East will continue to deteriorate.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I’ve said it a lot, the ground war will start soon. There is a lot of speculation as to what the hold up is. In part it seems biden is trying to let Hamas play its game of dribbling out hostages to show just how wonderful they are. Other reports are that biden asked for a delay to get US military forces prepositioned to respond to Iran if necessary. This could ultimately stretch out for a couple weeks, and it seems Israel is ready to go sooner rather than later. Indicators are that the US considers current force deployment nominal and reinforcements will be arriving in a timely manner should Iran get froggy.
Iran –
US has intel that Iran-backed groups are planning to ramp up attacks on US troops in the Middle East as Iran seeks to capitalize on backlash to US support of Israel. There are “red lights flashing everywhere,” official said
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Reports of explosions at both the Al-Tanaf and Al-Omar bases in Syria used by coalition troops. Early indications of another attack. IRGC backed militias continue to target bases in Syria and Iraq and without any U.S response as yet.
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Glad you're following this...
The US is shifting to war footing one step at a time. The deployment of two aircraft carrier CSGs (with a potential third that could be reassigned from the Indo-Pacific region) along with 120 combat aircraft (and use of long range, strategic bombers) that will be within easy striking distance of Iran is pointing to such a scenario. This sudden pivot against Iran is shocking considering that the regime has spent nearly 3 years brown nosing the Imans in Tehran, trying to purchase favor.
The longer the Israeli-Hamas war goes on, the greater the chance that the violence will escalate and spread. This is exactly what Hamas is hoping for and what their paymasters in Tehran have been planning for. This also brings with it increased speculation on Israeli use of nukes against Iran.
This is all set in the backdrop of ongoing global turmoil - Ukraine war, political upheaval, foreshocks of economic disaster, internal ethnic / migrant violence, etc. In all my life these factors have not converged in such a manner we are seeing today. Some on the conspiracy theorist side of “will there even be a 2024 election” have good basis for their concerns and observations. Things continue to strain. Kinda like the videos recently on the interwebs of young people wrapping rubberbands around a watermelon until it reaches point where it explodes. Don’t know which rubber band will trigger the explosion, but another is added until - splat - it explodes.
All trends continue to point to a major convergence, one I though would be last year, but more rubber bands have been added. Will 2024 be the year?
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) proposed new data collection requirements on cryptocurrency service providers in late August, which gave citizens and companies a 30 October deadline to comment before implementing the new rules. The IRS proposal states that some platforms “have a policy of not requesting customer information or requesting only limited information [but] have the ability to obtain information about their customers by updating their protocols.”
OBSERVATION - Being a good minion, the IRS supports the global efforts to kill crypto - desiring to replace it with their mutated CBDC ploy. They cannot control the population with alternatives to their currency still in play, so they will seek to have their subordinates, like the IRS regulate it to death.
Economy –
On October 19, Reuters reported that Biden’s administration was looking to purchase six million barrels of oil in order to replenish the strategic oil reserves which have dwindled to their lowest levels in 40 years. While replenishing these reserves is a necessary undertaking, the differential in oil prices raises the question of why the administration has waited until now to take action.
According to Reuters, the administration is looking to purchase the oil at a price of $79 dollars per barrel, which represents a nine-dollar increase over the earlier preferred purchase price.
OBSERVATION - Besides the higher price, this purchase would do very little to relieve the dangerously low reserve level, currently estimated to be about 17 days worth.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Anti-Israel, pro-Hamas protests are growing in number and violence. I expect that this next weekend will see a serous escalation in numbers and levels of violence as protests begin to incorporate tactics used by Antifa et al in 2020.
Terrorism -
Individuals on the TERROR WATCHLIST caught trying to cross into the US:
2019: 0
2020: 3
2021: 15
2022: 98
2023: 169
OBSERVATION - Never fear, our border is secure /s
***
During a test run for a CSX employee appreciation day, a train hit an obstruction on the track and temporarily derailed before the wheels dropped back into place.
The seemingly mysterious accident quickly became a concerning issue when employees continued to find more “purposefully placed” materials along the tracks, which matched methods taught by international terrorist groups to make homemade derail devices, court documents say.
The investigation led to Cleveland man Joseph Findley, 43, who was arrested and charged with terrorist attacks against railroad carriers.
OBSERVATION - No motive for the sabotage has been given. This does illustrate that vast portions of our infrastructure are vulnerable to terrorist acts of one kind or another.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More clarity on the ongoing military deployments. Via the WSJ: The air-defense systems are being deployed to Iraq, Syria (US controlled areas in the east) and the Gulf, U.S. officials said. The Pentagon is sending a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, to Saudi Arabia, and Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
***
“Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in a series of drone attacks at American bases in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command told NBC News on Tuesday.”
NOTE - There has been no retaliatory strikes by the US in response - dangerous as it indicates the forces are ‘weak’ and invites more attacks.
***
More U.S. Air Force F-16s arrived in the Middle East, the service announced Oct. 24, as threats to American forces in the region continue to grow.
The New Jersey Air National Guard’s 119th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron’s arrival in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) region increases the Air Force’s fighter footprint in the Middle East to six squadrons. U.S. bases in the Middle East have begun to come under attack from militia groups aligned with Iran, and officials have voiced concerned about possible region-wide escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.
The F-16 Fighting Falcons are part of a broader package of forces that have deployed after Hamas’ attack on Israel. F-15Es from RAF Lakenheath, U.K., and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., have already arrived in the region to bolster the U.S. Air Force presence.
AFCENT now operates three F-16 squadrons, two A-10 squadrons, and an F-15 squadron “alongside several strategic airlift, aerial refueling, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms,” according to the release.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Republicans nominated House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) for Speaker on Tuesday, making him the third GOP lawmaker who will attempt to get 217 votes to secure the gavel. At that time Democrats were saying they will help get Emmer over the finish line.
Then a little more than 4 hours later, Emmer has dropped out of the Speaker race. Wait what
Rep. Mike Johnson R-LA was then nominated for Speaker: “Democracy is messy sometimes, but it is our system. This conference that you see, this House Republican majority, is united.”
Full House vote scheduled for today.
OBSERVATION - Emmer garnered even more no votes than previous nominees and add to the fact that he was closer to being a pelosi than conservative republican without Trump’s endorsement probably collapsed the house of cards for the eGOP rather quickly. Johnson OTOH is a Trump supporter with relatively solid conservative creds. Today’s question will be does he get the full support of the republican caucus or will the RINOS try to sabotage the effort.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas is suing the Biden administration to stop Border Patrol from cutting state razor wire installed by the Texas National Guard along the border.
It’s illegal to destroy state property.
China –
See “Europe / NATO General” below re: the Newnew Polar Bear.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
The Federation Council approved the law on the abolition of informing the Secretary General of the Council of Europe about the introduction of a state of emergency or martial law in Russia.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Federation Council approved the law on the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Logistics –
Russia appears to be increasingly supplementing the use of Shahed-131/136 drones with cheaper and lighter domestically produced drone variants during strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. These drones are reported to be harder to detect and shoot down.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia reportedly has around 400,000 soldiers in the Ukraine war zone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense claims to have shot down 11 of 11 Shahed drones, launched by Russia. However, others apparently made their way into central/western Ukraine.
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense forces claim have partial success to the west of Verbove.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine continues the push on the southern margin of Bakhmut with some success.
Kherson Axis -
Russian counterattacks against the Ukrainian bridgeheads have been unsuccessful
Crimean front —
Explosions were audible in Nizhnehorsky district of Crimea. At least 2 explosions were reported in Sevastopol before air alert sounded, one of explosion was audible up to Bakhcysarai
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Drones reported in central Ukraine, air alerts in Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. Hit targets in the vicinity of Khmelnitsky NPP overnight, damaging powerlines and causing a partial blackout in Netishyn and Slavuta towns of Khmelnitsky region
OUTLOOK -
Status quo mostly as weather begins to serious affect operations on both sides. Avdiivka is growing as a major Russia objective but also a major meat grinder. Initial reports that Ukraine has ordered the remaining civilians out of the town.
Europe / NATO General –
The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.
Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Baltic connector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair. At press conference just now, Finnish investigators released the first subsea images of the Baltic connector pipeline damage site, along with images of the “extremely heavy object” they found near the pipeline and subsequently recovered, being an anchor.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
IAF hit targets in Syria.
GENERAL ——————————-
Secretary of State Blinken calls for a two-state solution at the UN.
“The only way to break out of this horrific cycle of violence is through two states for two peoples. As President Biden has underscored from day one, Palestinians deserve equal measures of security, of freedom, of justice, of opportunity, of dignity, and Palestinians have a right to self-determination and a status of their own.”
“Even as we address this immediate crisis, we all agree that we must redouble our collective efforts to build an enduring political solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the only road to lasting peace and security in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Doubly bad move. The arabs rejected a two state solution in 1947 and immediately attacked the newly created Israel.
***
“A cease fire right now is only going to benefit Hamas” per NSC spox John Kirby, briefing reporters at the White House
***
Growing calls internationally for a cease fire but there is no evidence that either Hamas or Israel want one at this time. Humanitarian ‘spokesmen’ in Gaza claim there is no fuel for hospital generators are being pointed to the existence of a Hamas fuel depot with reportedly a half million liters of fuel.
***
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas et al managed several large barrages yesterday that caused little to no damage. IAF continued to destroy Hamas key command and logistic centers.
***
Observers report that the IAF air strikes have begun to have a different “feel” - subjectively suggesting that targeting is shifting more to attacking the underground network versus above ground buildings.
***
The Israeli army says it has conducted over 10,000 targeted strikes in Gaza since October 7th
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued its harassment fire on IDF units and attacks on Mt Dov. IDF continues targeting Hezbollah firing positions and logistics.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IRGC QF is on high alert in eastern Syria, as well as central snd northwestern Iraq.
Israeli army dropped leaflets in Syria, warning the SAA members and commanders, it holds the SAA, especially the commander of the 112th brigades responsible for the rocket launches from Syria towards Israel. This follows the launch of 2 Rockets from Western Syria with both believed to have been heading towards the Golan Heights in Northern Israel however the they eventually landed in an empty field. Israeli Artillery is said to have opened-fire and destroyed the launch sites in Syria.
IRGC backed militias launched five rockets towards Israel from Syria earlier too. Reports all landed in open areas. Reports a large number of militias from Iraq and northeast Syria have moved towards the Israeli border regions this week.
In response, Israeli Defense Force fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian Army tonight in retaliation to yesterday’s rocket attacks towards Israel. Syrian State Media is reporting that a Headquarters for the 5th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army within the Town of Izra was dDestroyed by Israeli airstrikes; with further reports that a radar battalion and weapons depots of the Syrian air defense force were also targeted overnight near the Town of Qarfa.
WEST BANK——————————-
Heavy fighting was reported between the Israeli Defense Force and Militants within the City of Jenin in the West Bank
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq, aka “True Promise Brigades”, a smaller, lesser-known Iraqi group with ties to Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah, has announced they will target U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in response to “massacres committed by the occupation in Gaza”. Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq has previously conducted attacks on the UAE in 2022, and Saudi Arabia in 2021.
Washington Institute for Near-East Policy says the group could be under the direct control of Iran’s Quds Force.
***
Turkey’s Erdogan - “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a group of liberation and mujahideen fighting to protect their lands and citizens” He also announced the cancellation of all his plans to visit Israel.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - International efforts to delay Israel’s offensive are very apparent lately. Growing calls for ceasefire. However, it seems the biggest delay is due to a US request to allow it to get its military in the region ready for Iranian and Iranian backed militias ready. The pentagon has said that those preparations are largely in place, so the ground assault should be soon.
Israel is also being told it doesn’t know what it is doing by - of all people - US generals who haven’t a clue to the region or nature of the fight. I hope Israel says essentially “thank you for your opinion, now go stand in the corner and stay out of the way while the adults get to work”.
The situation is dynamic and can get very crazy in a moment.
Iran –
More threats against Israel and the US.
Iraq -
2 rockets struck the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq overnight which houses U.S. troops
OBSERVATION - Since the US has failed to respond, this is a sign of weakness that will encourage more attacks.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Israeli bombs targeted the eastern side of the runways of Aleppo International Airport with two missiles overnight. Main runway is reportedly damaged again, keeping the airport closed. Effort is to keep the airport closed to prevent Iran from flying in more military supplies for Iranian/Hezbollah forces in Syria.
OBSERVATION - The Aleppo and Damascus airports are critical for Iran to supply war materials to Hezbollah and Iranian backed units. Keeping them shut down forces them to rely on ground convoys, which are very vulnerable to airstrikes as well.
Turkey –
See Israel above.
Mexico -
.In the process of getting hammered by a Cat 5 hurricane - exceptionally rare for this time of year.