The US is shifting to war footing one step at a time. The deployment of two aircraft carrier CSGs (with a potential third that could be reassigned from the Indo-Pacific region) along with 120 combat aircraft (and use of long range, strategic bombers) that will be within easy striking distance of Iran is pointing to such a scenario. This sudden pivot against Iran is shocking considering that the regime has spent nearly 3 years brown nosing the Imans in Tehran, trying to purchase favor.
The longer the Israeli-Hamas war goes on, the greater the chance that the violence will escalate and spread. This is exactly what Hamas is hoping for and what their paymasters in Tehran have been planning for. This also brings with it increased speculation on Israeli use of nukes against Iran.
This is all set in the backdrop of ongoing global turmoil - Ukraine war, political upheaval, foreshocks of economic disaster, internal ethnic / migrant violence, etc. In all my life these factors have not converged in such a manner we are seeing today. Some on the conspiracy theorist side of “will there even be a 2024 election” have good basis for their concerns and observations. Things continue to strain. Kinda like the videos recently on the interwebs of young people wrapping rubberbands around a watermelon until it reaches point where it explodes. Don’t know which rubber band will trigger the explosion, but another is added until - splat - it explodes.
All trends continue to point to a major convergence, one I though would be last year, but more rubber bands have been added. Will 2024 be the year?
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) proposed new data collection requirements on cryptocurrency service providers in late August, which gave citizens and companies a 30 October deadline to comment before implementing the new rules. The IRS proposal states that some platforms “have a policy of not requesting customer information or requesting only limited information [but] have the ability to obtain information about their customers by updating their protocols.”
OBSERVATION - Being a good minion, the IRS supports the global efforts to kill crypto - desiring to replace it with their mutated CBDC ploy. They cannot control the population with alternatives to their currency still in play, so they will seek to have their subordinates, like the IRS regulate it to death.
Economy –
On October 19, Reuters reported that Biden’s administration was looking to purchase six million barrels of oil in order to replenish the strategic oil reserves which have dwindled to their lowest levels in 40 years. While replenishing these reserves is a necessary undertaking, the differential in oil prices raises the question of why the administration has waited until now to take action.
According to Reuters, the administration is looking to purchase the oil at a price of $79 dollars per barrel, which represents a nine-dollar increase over the earlier preferred purchase price.
OBSERVATION - Besides the higher price, this purchase would do very little to relieve the dangerously low reserve level, currently estimated to be about 17 days worth.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Anti-Israel, pro-Hamas protests are growing in number and violence. I expect that this next weekend will see a serous escalation in numbers and levels of violence as protests begin to incorporate tactics used by Antifa et al in 2020.
Terrorism -
Individuals on the TERROR WATCHLIST caught trying to cross into the US:
2019: 0
2020: 3
2021: 15
2022: 98
2023: 169
OBSERVATION - Never fear, our border is secure /s
***
During a test run for a CSX employee appreciation day, a train hit an obstruction on the track and temporarily derailed before the wheels dropped back into place.
The seemingly mysterious accident quickly became a concerning issue when employees continued to find more “purposefully placed” materials along the tracks, which matched methods taught by international terrorist groups to make homemade derail devices, court documents say.
The investigation led to Cleveland man Joseph Findley, 43, who was arrested and charged with terrorist attacks against railroad carriers.
OBSERVATION - No motive for the sabotage has been given. This does illustrate that vast portions of our infrastructure are vulnerable to terrorist acts of one kind or another.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More clarity on the ongoing military deployments. Via the WSJ: The air-defense systems are being deployed to Iraq, Syria (US controlled areas in the east) and the Gulf, U.S. officials said. The Pentagon is sending a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, to Saudi Arabia, and Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
***
“Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in a series of drone attacks at American bases in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command told NBC News on Tuesday.”
NOTE - There has been no retaliatory strikes by the US in response - dangerous as it indicates the forces are ‘weak’ and invites more attacks.
***
More U.S. Air Force F-16s arrived in the Middle East, the service announced Oct. 24, as threats to American forces in the region continue to grow.
The New Jersey Air National Guard’s 119th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron’s arrival in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) region increases the Air Force’s fighter footprint in the Middle East to six squadrons. U.S. bases in the Middle East have begun to come under attack from militia groups aligned with Iran, and officials have voiced concerned about possible region-wide escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.
The F-16 Fighting Falcons are part of a broader package of forces that have deployed after Hamas’ attack on Israel. F-15Es from RAF Lakenheath, U.K., and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., have already arrived in the region to bolster the U.S. Air Force presence.
AFCENT now operates three F-16 squadrons, two A-10 squadrons, and an F-15 squadron “alongside several strategic airlift, aerial refueling, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms,” according to the release.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Republicans nominated House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) for Speaker on Tuesday, making him the third GOP lawmaker who will attempt to get 217 votes to secure the gavel. At that time Democrats were saying they will help get Emmer over the finish line.
Then a little more than 4 hours later, Emmer has dropped out of the Speaker race. Wait what
Rep. Mike Johnson R-LA was then nominated for Speaker: “Democracy is messy sometimes, but it is our system. This conference that you see, this House Republican majority, is united.”
Full House vote scheduled for today.
OBSERVATION - Emmer garnered even more no votes than previous nominees and add to the fact that he was closer to being a pelosi than conservative republican without Trump’s endorsement probably collapsed the house of cards for the eGOP rather quickly. Johnson OTOH is a Trump supporter with relatively solid conservative creds. Today’s question will be does he get the full support of the republican caucus or will the RINOS try to sabotage the effort.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas is suing the Biden administration to stop Border Patrol from cutting state razor wire installed by the Texas National Guard along the border.
It’s illegal to destroy state property.
China –
See “Europe / NATO General” below re: the Newnew Polar Bear.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
The Federation Council approved the law on the abolition of informing the Secretary General of the Council of Europe about the introduction of a state of emergency or martial law in Russia.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Federation Council approved the law on the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Logistics –
Russia appears to be increasingly supplementing the use of Shahed-131/136 drones with cheaper and lighter domestically produced drone variants during strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. These drones are reported to be harder to detect and shoot down.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia reportedly has around 400,000 soldiers in the Ukraine war zone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense claims to have shot down 11 of 11 Shahed drones, launched by Russia. However, others apparently made their way into central/western Ukraine.
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense forces claim have partial success to the west of Verbove.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine continues the push on the southern margin of Bakhmut with some success.
Kherson Axis -
Russian counterattacks against the Ukrainian bridgeheads have been unsuccessful
Crimean front —
Explosions were audible in Nizhnehorsky district of Crimea. At least 2 explosions were reported in Sevastopol before air alert sounded, one of explosion was audible up to Bakhcysarai
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Drones reported in central Ukraine, air alerts in Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. Hit targets in the vicinity of Khmelnitsky NPP overnight, damaging powerlines and causing a partial blackout in Netishyn and Slavuta towns of Khmelnitsky region
OUTLOOK -
Status quo mostly as weather begins to serious affect operations on both sides. Avdiivka is growing as a major Russia objective but also a major meat grinder. Initial reports that Ukraine has ordered the remaining civilians out of the town.
Europe / NATO General –
The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.
Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Baltic connector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair. At press conference just now, Finnish investigators released the first subsea images of the Baltic connector pipeline damage site, along with images of the “extremely heavy object” they found near the pipeline and subsequently recovered, being an anchor.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
IAF hit targets in Syria.
GENERAL ——————————-
Secretary of State Blinken calls for a two-state solution at the UN.
“The only way to break out of this horrific cycle of violence is through two states for two peoples. As President Biden has underscored from day one, Palestinians deserve equal measures of security, of freedom, of justice, of opportunity, of dignity, and Palestinians have a right to self-determination and a status of their own.”
“Even as we address this immediate crisis, we all agree that we must redouble our collective efforts to build an enduring political solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, the only road to lasting peace and security in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Doubly bad move. The arabs rejected a two state solution in 1947 and immediately attacked the newly created Israel.
***
“A cease fire right now is only going to benefit Hamas” per NSC spox John Kirby, briefing reporters at the White House
***
Growing calls internationally for a cease fire but there is no evidence that either Hamas or Israel want one at this time. Humanitarian ‘spokesmen’ in Gaza claim there is no fuel for hospital generators are being pointed to the existence of a Hamas fuel depot with reportedly a half million liters of fuel.
***
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas et al managed several large barrages yesterday that caused little to no damage. IAF continued to destroy Hamas key command and logistic centers.
***
Observers report that the IAF air strikes have begun to have a different “feel” - subjectively suggesting that targeting is shifting more to attacking the underground network versus above ground buildings.
***
The Israeli army says it has conducted over 10,000 targeted strikes in Gaza since October 7th
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued its harassment fire on IDF units and attacks on Mt Dov. IDF continues targeting Hezbollah firing positions and logistics.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IRGC QF is on high alert in eastern Syria, as well as central snd northwestern Iraq.
Israeli army dropped leaflets in Syria, warning the SAA members and commanders, it holds the SAA, especially the commander of the 112th brigades responsible for the rocket launches from Syria towards Israel. This follows the launch of 2 Rockets from Western Syria with both believed to have been heading towards the Golan Heights in Northern Israel however the they eventually landed in an empty field. Israeli Artillery is said to have opened-fire and destroyed the launch sites in Syria.
IRGC backed militias launched five rockets towards Israel from Syria earlier too. Reports all landed in open areas. Reports a large number of militias from Iraq and northeast Syria have moved towards the Israeli border regions this week.
In response, Israeli Defense Force fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian Army tonight in retaliation to yesterday’s rocket attacks towards Israel. Syrian State Media is reporting that a Headquarters for the 5th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army within the Town of Izra was dDestroyed by Israeli airstrikes; with further reports that a radar battalion and weapons depots of the Syrian air defense force were also targeted overnight near the Town of Qarfa.
WEST BANK——————————-
Heavy fighting was reported between the Israeli Defense Force and Militants within the City of Jenin in the West Bank
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq, aka “True Promise Brigades”, a smaller, lesser-known Iraqi group with ties to Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah, has announced they will target U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in response to “massacres committed by the occupation in Gaza”. Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq has previously conducted attacks on the UAE in 2022, and Saudi Arabia in 2021.
Washington Institute for Near-East Policy says the group could be under the direct control of Iran’s Quds Force.
***
Turkey’s Erdogan - “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a group of liberation and mujahideen fighting to protect their lands and citizens” He also announced the cancellation of all his plans to visit Israel.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - International efforts to delay Israel’s offensive are very apparent lately. Growing calls for ceasefire. However, it seems the biggest delay is due to a US request to allow it to get its military in the region ready for Iranian and Iranian backed militias ready. The pentagon has said that those preparations are largely in place, so the ground assault should be soon.
Israel is also being told it doesn’t know what it is doing by - of all people - US generals who haven’t a clue to the region or nature of the fight. I hope Israel says essentially “thank you for your opinion, now go stand in the corner and stay out of the way while the adults get to work”.
The situation is dynamic and can get very crazy in a moment.
Iran –
More threats against Israel and the US.
Iraq -
2 rockets struck the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq overnight which houses U.S. troops
OBSERVATION - Since the US has failed to respond, this is a sign of weakness that will encourage more attacks.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Israeli bombs targeted the eastern side of the runways of Aleppo International Airport with two missiles overnight. Main runway is reportedly damaged again, keeping the airport closed. Effort is to keep the airport closed to prevent Iran from flying in more military supplies for Iranian/Hezbollah forces in Syria.
OBSERVATION - The Aleppo and Damascus airports are critical for Iran to supply war materials to Hezbollah and Iranian backed units. Keeping them shut down forces them to rely on ground convoys, which are very vulnerable to airstrikes as well.
Turkey –
See Israel above.
Mexico -
.In the process of getting hammered by a Cat 5 hurricane - exceptionally rare for this time of year.
oops ping above.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Federal Trade Commission is now in the business of hiring child psychologists in a effort to regulate social media. You heard me right. Apart from being way, way outside its boundaries as far as its mission, this appears to be a new, backdoor effort to regulation of free speech on the interwebs.
Speech regulation - in all its forms, is a key plank of the WEF’s global aspirations to rule the world.
Economy –
Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union have reached a tentative deal, which includes a record pay rise, to end a nearly six-week strike. The agreement included a 25% wage increase over the four-and-a-half-year life of the contract, with an initial increase of 11%.
OBSERVATION - This will likely force the other two car makers to make the same or similar agreements. The strike has reportedly made a $9 Billion dollar hit on the economy.
***
According to a report by Oilprice.com, the oil industry is facing growing difficulties in getting funding from banks for ongoing operations and exploration.
“If you have the word ‘refinery’ anywhere in your title, you’re not going to get finance,” Alwyn Bowden, chief executive officer of Malaysia’s Pengerang Energy Complex, said at an industry conference, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Banks are also increasingly demanding emission-cutting targets from the oil refiners seeking financing, Bowden noted.
OBSERVATION - Bankers are tied into the goals of the WEF to eliminate fossil fuels in their entirety. Thus, through banking syncopates they are pushing their agenda forward.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Jewish students at Cooper Union college were locked in the school library because a pro-Hamas gathering found out Jews were there. So they brought the protest inside and blocked all the exits. Then they started banging on the doors to the library, trying to get in. The Jewish students had to be evacuated via tunnels for their safety
OBSERVATION - Directed physical violence towards jews and in particular, jews on college and university campuses are starting to increase and the school leadership is doing essentially nothing to reign in these attacks.
IN RELATED - The Anti-Defamation League claims there has been a 388% rise in anti-Semitism since October 7. Anti-Semitic incidents in the United States have surged by close to 400% in the weeks following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the Jewish advocacy group the Anti-Defamation League (ADL).
OBSERVATION - Race based conflict expands to include race AND religion.
***
Last weeks pro-Palestinian protestors storming of the Cannon House Office Building and the Rotunda was funded largely by the supposed “Jewish” organizations Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) and IfNotNow - Soros. Soros’s philanthropic work, JVP was awarded several grants totaling $650,000 that bankrolled its ‘human rights’ campaign and ‘social welfare activities’ in the Middle East, according to a grant database maintained by the Soros-funded Open Society Foundations.
fNotNow has also been the beneficiary of Soros’s money. Soros’s grant-making Foundation to Promote Open Society handed $200,000 in 2019 and another $200,000 in 2021 to the 501(c)(3) IfNotNow Education Fund for growing membership, visibility, and impact around ‘general support’ to end Israeli ‘occupation in the Middle East’ (meaning the eradication of Israel), Open Society Foundations grant records show.
OBSERVATION - I’m sure by now no one is shocked at this.
Terrorism -
Police are actively looking for a “Robert Card”, a person of interest in the shooting in Lewiston ME that has killed at least 22 and wounded 60 others. According to Law Enforcement, Card is a trainer firearms instructor, and is believed to be in the Army reserves.
Card was also reported to have been committed to mental health facility for two weeks during summer 2023 and subsequently released. That means he was involuntarily committed which means he was banned from owning or possessing firearms.
He remains at large this morning. Latest is he is suspected to have fled to Massachusetts.
OBSERVATION - The left of course screams ‘gun control’ and gun bans. What we have is a mental health problem, not a gun problem.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft trackers note that carrier-based C-2A flights in the eastern Atlantic indicate that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG has reached the Azores archipelago and is expected to reach the Strait of Gibraltar in approximately 36 to 48 hours, depending on its speed.
***
The Army air defense units deploying to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war come from Fort Bliss in Texas, Fort Liberty in North Carolina, and Fort Sill in Oklahoma, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The units are bringing Patriot missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, battery to the region after more than a dozen drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria over the past week that the Pentagon has blamed on Iranian proxies. NBC News reported Tuesday evening that two dozen American military personnel were wounded in the attacks, but that could not be immediately confirmed by Military.com.
Although Pentagon officials didn’t name the Army units being deployed, Fort Bliss is home to the 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, Fort Liberty hosts the 108th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, and Fort Sill is home to the 31st Air Defense Artillery Brigade.
RELATED - Air plane observers/trackers note a very high number of C17 and C5A in the air and in route to the middle east region.
OBSERVATION - The speed at which these batteries can be deployed and made operational is believed to govern how soon the Gaza ground war will kick off. Either the biden regime puts the spurs to the pony and gets them up an going ASAP, or drags it out in order to mess up Israeli planning.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrat Congressman Jamaal Bowman has been criminally charged for falsely pulling a fire alarm in the Cannon Office Building. Bowman said in a statement to Axios that he will plead guilty to the charge and agree to pay a $1,000 fine.
OBSERVATION - J6 protestors were jailed and are in prison right now for the same criminal violations Bowman committed - two tiered justice system strikes again.
***
New Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, served as legal defense for Trump during both impeachment trials, voted against all Ukraine spending after the initial bill, objected to certifying 2020 election fraud, and has called for the arrest of Nancy Pelosi.
OBSERVATION - The full republican caucus voted in favor of Johnson yesterday and given his creds above show that the eGOP factor in the caucus was throughly defeated in this speakership battle. Leftist heads on the other side of the aisle are exploding.
***
The Biden administration’s nominee to be the next ambassador to Israel is pledging full American support and funding for an anti-Semitic United Nations organization known to cooperate with Hamas.
Jack Lew, the former Treasury Department secretary who is nominated as U.S. ambassador to Israel, informed Congress in written communication that if confirmed to the post, he will not eliminate taxpayer funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an aid organization known to use anti-Semitic materials in its schools and preach Israel’s destruction.
U.S. funding to UNRWA, which topped $730 million under the Biden administration, has long been a flashpoint among Republicans in Congress, and was frozen under the Trump administration due to the organization’s promotion of Jew hatred. UNRWA is known to employ teachers who call for Jews to be murdered and glorify Hamas terrorists, including its leaders, according to watchdog groups. The Iranian-backed terror group that recently slaughtered nearly 1,500 Israelis is also reported to store weapons and other munitions at UNRWA facilities.
OBSERVATION - The schizophrenic biden Israel foreign policy continues to wobble. However, the anti-Israel core of the leftist democrat leadership comes to the surface on instances like this.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The day after leaving the nuclear accords, Russia successfully tested its ability to deliver a massive retaliatory nuclear strike by land, sea and air.
They test launched missiles from a land-based silo, a nuclear submarine, and from long-range bomber aircraft.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called it a rehearsal for “a massive nuclear strike” in response to an aggressor’s nuclear attack.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka, making gains on the northern margin. Reports that Russia has committed the local operational reserve forces to try to obtain more momentum.
Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
Russian espionage group was arrested in Sumy region. 3 persons were detained.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine forces made gains on the Tokmak axis, securing the flanks to a greater degree while putting pressure on Russian forces there.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian milbloggers are saying that the Ukrainian forces have breached the rail line south of Bakhmut. The say Russians are being forced back out of the trench line. Ukraine has been making incremental gains in this area for over a month. These reports by generally accurate Russian sources suggests that Russians are potentially on the brink of a major loss which would result in southern supply routes into Bakhmut being physically cut off by Ukraine forces.
Avdiivka Front - (Added this because action here has become a major front for Russia)
Fighting continues as Russian forces use ‘meat’ attacks on both sides of the salient Equipment and personnel losses continue to be extremely high, causing some observers to note that this may be the most costly battle of the war - exceeding even Bakhmut.
Russia throwing more troops on the northern flank of the sailent where they have been able to eek out minor gains over the past few days.
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian military intelligence claims a vehicle with 4 FSB agents was blown up in Berdiansk on 23th October.
OUTLOOK -
The battle for Avdiivka is starting to overshadow Ukraines offensive actions in Tokmok and Bakhmut sectors. This fight will go on for weeks.
Europe / NATO General –
“Hungarian parliament rejects proposal to vote on Sweden’s NATO bid”, - Associated Press
OBSERVATION - Hungary has drifted closer and closer to the Russia sphere of influence lately - largely over EU/NATO support of Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
PM Netanyahu - “I scheduled a date for the ground operation with the Chief of Staff. We are preparing for a ground invasion and I will not specify when or how, and I will not go into detail about the considerations that the majority of the public is unaware of.”
NOTE - Strong evidence that the delay is to permit US air defense systems to be deployed and set up across the middle east in response to expected ballistic missile attacks by Iran once the ground war in Gaza starts.
***
Israeli media reports the IDF infantry and armor carried out an extensive operation into Gaza overnight. Per multiple outlets, this incursion was more extensive than previous ones in recent days.
NOTE - There have been numerous recon in force penetrations into Gaza. Apparently what made this action unique was that there was a more significant raid factor rather than recon.
GENERAL ——————————-
The big political / PR war continues in the effort to force Israel into a ceasefire. Western military and in particular US military assets continue to pour into the region.
***
Latest check on the USS Eisenhower CSG indicates that they are about a day out from the Straits of Gibraltar, thus could be at least 4 - 5 more days from the eastern Med. It is still expected to transit the Suez canal to join CENTOM forces in the Persian Gulf region.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas et al still manages a few rocket barrages while the IAF continues to strike Hamas facilities, ammo dumps and underground networks. One large ammo dump was hit yesterday that was adjacent to a hospital - numerous large secondary explosions were noted.
Large recon in force overnight that was closer to a raid hit many Hamas positions before withdrawing.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassing fire from Hezbollah and retaliatory IDF fire. The number of Hezbollah members killed in Israeli army strikes in southern Lebanon amid the Gaza war reaches an estimated 45
***
Fires are still consuming large forest areas at the border in “Al-Labouneh,” south of Naqoura, due to the incendiary ammunition bombing and light shells that the Israeli army dropped yesterday evening. From time to time, the sounds of explosions of mines from leftovers are heard.
NOTE - Arabs claim these incendiaries are targeting civilians. The fact of the matter is they are being used to ignite brush fires along the border to deny Hezbollah forces camouflage / concealment to prevent infiltration attempts.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The military base of the American forces was targeted in the town of Al-Shaddadi in the Hasakah countryside. The base was attacked with mortar shells by unknown armed groups.
Syrian media: 5 missiles targeted an American base and its surroundings in the Hasakah countryside in NE Syria. Reports of another attack on U.S Forces at the Abu Hajar Airport in Northeastern Syria.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli army says troops have arrested some 1,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 660 affiliated with Hamas, since the war began on Oct. 7. Overnight, 46 Hamas members were detained
NOTE - Some may wonder why so much activity in the West Bank. I’ve noted for many months that Hamas has been growing its base in the West Bank due to the impending new leadership elections. Current leader, Abbas, is losing support to these more radical sections and things threaten to blow up as they did in Gaza in 2008 with a civil war - on that resulted in Hamas rule. The Palestine authority in the West Bank was trying to avoid such a repeat of history. Contrary to arab propaganda, moslems in the West Bank have had considerable freedom to work in Israel and the region in general was relatively prosperous and generally stable. Only with the onset of elections have Hamas accelerated its efforts to gain a foothold.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The French Navy has announced that the FS Tonnerre (L-9014) a Mistral-Class amphibious assault ship is currently being deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean in order to link-up with NATO Naval Forces including the Carrier Strike Group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) off the coast of Israel; this deployment follows an announcement earlier today by French President Macron that France will be sending a Hospital Ship to the region to assist residents of the Gaza Strip.
***
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister meets with the political leadership of Hamas in Doha and discusses with them the fate of the detainees
***
Iran’s IRGC chief commander says if Israel engages in ground operation “the dragon of Gaza will devour them. If they set foot in Gaza, they’ll be buried there. They have no other way… Gaza is the staff of the Moses that will devour the Pharaohs if they enter on the ground”
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Reset the clock on when the ground invasion into Gaza kicks off. Israel has set a date - probably based on US estimates of how quickly they can get air defense assets deployed across the middle east.
How hard and fast that date is, is uncertain. However, I think it is pretty firm. In the meantime, I expect the IAF to continue to target key Hamas locations and known tunnel areas while IDF launches more raids like last night - both to prepare the battlefield for invasion.
The delay is likely to be a matter of weeks - given how large of a deployment is required. Until then most likely a continuation of the past few days.
Hamas will use the delay to further its propaganda campaign and dribble out a couple of hostages at a time as a way of trying to show themselves somehow as the ‘good’ guys.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he sees no advantage in the continued presence of Russian military bases in Armenia, the Wall Street Journal reported.
He also told the newspaper that Yerevan is looking for new partners because Moscow, he claimed, “has failed to fulfill its allied commitments”.
OBSERVATION - Russia left them hanging out cold and this resulted in ethic cleansing of Armenian Christians in the Ndagermo-Karmach territory.