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Home here in the Redoubt is looking at its first major snow and cold of the season. Forecasts now of 6-7 inches of snow with potential lows reaching 0 degrees. Double checking my cold weather SAR equipment tonight as hunting season is in full swing and weather may catch some hunters unawares.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) wants to import European elites’ censorship here, as he is demanding Big Tech step up its censorship during the Hamas-Israel conflict—in accord with anti-free speech European Union demands.

Sen. Bennet wrote an Oct. 17 letter to the CEOs of four Big Tech companies: Shou Zi Chew (TikTok), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta—Facebook/Instagram), Elon Musk (X/Twitter), and Sundar Pichai (Google/YouTube). In it, Bennet hysterically accused the tech companies of allowing and amplifying “deceptive content” after cutting back on censorship staff.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/catherinesalgado/2023/10/21/dem-senator-joins-eu-in-demanding-big-tech-censor-more-n1736847

OBSERVATION - Control of information is critical for the globalist agenda - only their version of ‘truth’ is to be allowed and all other silenced. As has been made very clear since the wuhan plandemic, the govt is the primary source of misinformation, and went out of its way to censor (and squash) information that we now know to be true. Bennet is a creature of the deep state and a puppet for the globalist masters.

Economy –

OPEC is forecasting that the global oil supply shortfall will increase to more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter. Voluntary OPEC production cuts are removing 1.3 million barrels of oil supply every day through December.

OBSERVATION - This will keep fuel prices on the upward trend. This may be mitigated to some degree by now unsanctioned Iran flooding the market with cheaper oil. However, should the Gaza war mutate and draw Iran into the mix, it may take action to block oil to the west - creating a tremendous disruption in oil supplies and a shock to oil prices.

IN RELATED - Total U.S. petroleum production climbed to 13.2 million barrels a day as of week ended Oct. 6, according to the Energy Information Administration — the highest figure based on data going back to 1983. The latest data released Wednesday showed output remained unchanged at that level for the week ended Oct. 13. Where there is a will (backed by $$$) there is a way.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

This won’t come as a shock to you, but nearly everything you were told about the George Floyd case and the conviction of police officer Derek Chauvin was a lie. Newly released court documents now confirm that George Floyd died from a fentanyl overdose, not from asphyxiation.
In other words, George Floyd was not murdered.

OBSERVATION - Not sure just how much of a chance this may give for an appeal of the sentence, but does illustrate the negative power of the left to essentially lynch a target victim to support the wild destruction by its minions. He did not get a fair trial, he got a political kangaroo court conviction.

****
In some ways this feels like the calm before the storm. Pro-Hamas protests are present, but creating an imminent danger. That could switch at any moment once Israel enters Gaza. American Jews are buying guns and ammo at an increased rates, in response to the clear threats being made at these ‘peaceful’ protests.
There are just so many fuzes that have been lit, which one will set an explosion off first?

Terrorism -

According to an unclassified Customs and Border Protection (CBP) internal memo, the San Diego Field Intelligence Unit of the CBP said foreign fighters and mercenaries with ties to Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or Hamas could cross the southwest border into the United States.

Real numbers echo that. Terrorist watch list stops have soared at U.S. borders in fiscal year 2023. According to data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection on Saturday there have been a total of 736 terrorist suspects stopped at the border in that period.

The data shows that 564 of those encounters occurred at land border ports of entry while 172 encounters occurred between ports of entry.
By comparison, fiscal year 2020 saw a total of 199 terrorist suspects stopped at the border, and in FY 2021 the total was 173. In FY 2022 the total was 478.

This does not include “get aways”.

OBSERVATION - Terrorists have been pushing across the border for quite some time now. The essentially open border policies has only enabled such infiltration to a massive degree - See Illegals Immigration below on the explosion of numbers.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Still trying to pin down where the THAAD systems are going to be placed. My best estimate at this stage would be to cover US Navy bases in the Persian Gulf region with Patriots providing additional coverage of forces in the western Iraq/eastern Syria region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

There are reports of a growing rift between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine factions in the State Department that will likely grow should Israel invade Gaza and the US continue to support Israel. Director of Congressional and Public Affairs Josh Paul resigned over U.S. support for Israel reflects this discord.

****
Republicans are to caucus today to select a new candidate for speaker. 10 names are currently in the running.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The world burns while biden worries about sunburn.

Illegal Immigration –

The biden immigration policy has been an unmitigated disaster. CBP reports there were 269,735 migrant encounters at the southern border in September, making it the highest single month ever recorded. CBP reports fiscal year 2023 now finishes with 2.47 million encounters, also the highest annual total ever recorded in a single year.

FY’23 - 2,475,669
FY’22 - 2,378,944
FY’21 - 1,734,686
FY’20 (Trump) - 458,088

See also terrorism above.

China –

Yesterday I noted three Chinese warship in the Arabian Sea region. Press continued to report 6, so I found reference to the other three.

The 44th and 45th Chinese naval escort task forces have been deployed for 6 months. They conducted a farewell ceremony in the western waters of the Gulf of Aden after completing joint escort and mission handover on October 2, 2023.
Before the ceremony, the two escort task forces conducted a joint escort to further familiarize themselves with the organization procedures and emergency handling of escort operations. After the ceremony, the 44th escort task force is scheduled to carry out visits and joint exercises with Oman and Kuwait.

The 45th escort task force, consisting of
1x Type 052D destroyer Ürümqi (118)
1x Type 054A frigate Linyi (547)
1x Type 903A replenishment ship

The six Chinese warships have been stationed in the area since May for regular operations. It is misleading to suggest that this deployment is a response to the presence of US warships or the Gaza war.

Basically, 4 actual warships and 2 tenders/supply vessels.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

*****

Russian Personnel Issues –-
It been a while since Russian losses have been estimated. Most recent estimates indicate that Russian has suffered 150-190k permanent losses (deaths and wounds that permanently take the soldier out of combat) & 240-290k temporary losses - NOT including Wagners losses.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 drones and 1 Kh-59 cruise missile overnight. Small numbers in comparison to past attacks, but the largest in a number of days. Target areas were central Ukraine and the Odesa regions.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses. UK Defense Ministry says storming of Avdeevka has increased Russian casualties by 90%. Over a 10 days, the Russian army has lost 201 pieces of equipment, according to data from the OSINT project Oryx (Oryx only counts confirmed kills, so their count is considered to be minimal losses). Russian losses over the past 10 days include 42 tanks, 49 infantry fighting vehicles and 10 armored personnel carriers.

The loss of APCs apparently has forced Russian to bring infantry in via cargo trucks. Videos from yesterday show a column of such trucks driving fast towards the front with only a few APCs to provide support. Russia is increasingly relying on ‘meat attacks’ in efforts to break the Ukraine defenses. These dismounted attacks continue to be decimated by Ukraine artillery which includes cluster munitions.

Continued on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. No significant gains for either side.

Kherson Axis -
Evidence of two crossing points on the Dniper River and pushing outward. Russia is desperately trying to cauterize the breakthroughs with a lot of fix wing attacks, which have increased their the number of planes being shot down.

Crimean front —
Heavy explosions in Russian-occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Unclear what is the cause, but judging from the explosions, most likely a major ammo dump was hit.. The Kerch bridge has been closed, possibly as a precaution.

OUTLOOK -
Ukraine is turning Avdiivka into another Bakhmut for Russia, except that Ukrainian defenses are far more resilient and solid. Russia has been attempting to take the town since 2014. Replacement of APCs by armor-less trucks is a bad sign for Russia - far easier to kill as they trundle to the front on well established roads - and dialed in Ukrainian artillery.

The Kerch Bridge is also the next biggie on the Ukranian hit parade. Put out of action twice now, I expect that it will be targeted again for a knock out blow soon. British cruise missiles are the weapon available to Ukraine at the moment as the ATACAMS missiles are only armed with cluster munitions, and not a single HE warhead necessary to take out a bridge. That Ukraine is able to continue to hit major targets in Crimea indicates Russian air defense is still suffering from previous strikes.

Europe / NATO General –

Swiss People’s Party, which campaigned against mass migration and “woke madness”, is projected to be the big winner in the Swiss federal elections, while the left-wing Green Party is the big loser.

OBSERVATION - Switzerland and other smaller nations in Europe have been hammered by these ‘migrants’ who’ve refused to assimilate into the culture but instead have established “no go” zones where they re-establish the same hell holes from which they reputedly fled from. Some European govts are now looking at mass deportations of migrants who cause trouble. Will boil into turbulent times as that is going to be a substantial number.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Rumors of another hostage release, didn’t pan out.
Israel launched several recon in force operations across N Gaza.

GENERAL ——————————-

US and EU are still pressing Israel to delay its ground operations in order to give hostage negotiations by Qatar a chance to prove out.. However, that effort now appears to be drying up.

***
Israel is promising to cut off “the head of the snake” and launch a military attack against Iran if Hezbollah — its proxy terror group in Lebanon — gets involved in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.

In an fiery interview Sunday with The Mail, Nir Barkat, Israel’s minister of economy, declared Iran’s ayatollahs will be “wiped off the face of the earth” if Hezbollah goes on the attack against Israel — escalating the regional conflict.

OBSERVATION - Israel and Iran playing a dangerous game of chicken now. Iran via Hezbollah has promised involvement if Israel proceeds with its ground assault into Gaza. Israel OTOH appears to promise to hit Iran (or Iranian assets/leadership) should Hezbollah launch a full scale attack.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense airstrikes northern Gaza tonight as the IDF continues to dismantle Hamas threats ahead of its likely imminent major ground operations. IDF says it hit some 320 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, including tunnels where operatives were hiding, and several mortar and ATGM positions. Reports from Gaza that the airstrikes this evening are some of the most intense ones felt since the beginning of the war, reports of many dead and wounded.

Hamas still manages to get a few rocket barrages out but with increasing periods of time between them. Aerial imagery on the interwebs show how Hamas et al sets up their rocket launch sites adjacent to schools, religious buildings and even a UN facility.

***
IDF launched recon in force operations overnight. Israel says its forces went west of the Gaza Strip fence on Sunday to clear the area of terrorists and weapons, and try and find hostages. According to the IDF, missiles were fired at them by Hamas - and one IDF soldier was killed and three others injured
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari says Israel carried out more raids into Gaza overnight. Hagari said: “During the night there were raids by tank and infantry forces. These raids are raids that kill squads of terrorists who are preparing for the next stage in the war. These are raids that go deep, to the contact line. These raids also locate and search for anything we can get in terms of intelligence on the missing and the hostages”

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF says that overnight it struck more Hezbollah targets and terrorists in southern Lebanon, this morning struck more terrorists that attempted at firing ATGMs.

***
Reports of an IDF airstrike against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon after a surface-to-air missile targeted one of its fighter planes.

WEST BANK——————————-

More than 30 Hamas operatives were arrested in raids across the West Bank last night.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Lloyd Austin - we’ve seen rocket & UAV attacks against bases housing our troops in Iraq and Syria. We’re concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we’re seeing is a is the prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region

***
European Union - “The two-state solution remains the only viable solution.”
NOTE - Israel was formed under a two-state solution and was immediately attacked by surrounding arab forces.

***
Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators are marching in London, Barcelona, Los Angeles, and other cities.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I’ve said it a lot, the ground wor will start soon. Israel is likely getting heavy pressure to delay from the US and Europe based on the Hamas ‘hostage release and negotiations’ game they always play, and successfully in the past.
All the pieces are in place for Israel. The vast majority of civilians in N Gaza have fled, IAF has targeted Hamas et al positions in a way not seen before. The recon in force actions exposed Hamas response plans/operations, permitting targeting of terrorist troop concentrations and Israel is preparing the northern front to discourage Hezbollah from getting involved.

The urgency of US preparations in the region also suggests that Israel is going ahead with the invasion and soon.

The actual invasion is a critical point in the war. Will Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria hold to their promise to attack or not. That action will determine if Israel reaches out to Iran in a punitive strike. Things can go down hill quickly from there.

Iran –

More threats against Israel should they go ahead with the invasion of Gaza.

Iraq -

U.S. has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq due to increased security threats. The State Department also issued a travel advisory to US citizens, warning them not to go to the Middle Eastern country. “Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and Mission Iraq’s limited capacity to provide support to US citizens,” read the advisory.

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Central / South America General-

The leftist government’s candidate and failed Economy Minister Sergio Massa “unexpectedly” won the first round of voting in Argentina on Sunday.
The two top candidates will hold a runoff election.
Wildly popular Libertarian candidate Javier Milei was expected to win on Sunday but it was not to be. Milei split votes with another right-wing candidate during the first round. Milei remains the favorite in the runoff.

OBSERVATION - This election is running counter to the leftist trend in many other central - south American countries.

Pretty good winter storm bearing down now. Battening down the hatches and lighting up the fire place.

Economy –

Well, as if there isn’t anything better to do, the United Auto Workers union is expanding its strike of the three major U.S. automakers to a Stellantis plant that produces Ram full-size pickup trucks. The work stoppage includes roughly 6,800 workers at Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in suburban Detroit. It marks the first escalation in the union’s strike in nearly two weeks and the first new work stoppage at Stellantis in over a month.

The United Auto Workers’ simultaneous, but limited, strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis has now cost the U.S. economy over $9 billion, which is more than twice the previous record for an auto industry strike this century.

OBSERVATION - UAW is not dropping its demands or seeking any compromise. As the strike expands, expect the cost to the economy to increase as well. Not a good thing as evidence continues to point to a 2024 recession.

***
Americans are falling behind on their auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades due to higher car prices and borrowing costs, according to Fitch Ratings. The percentage of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans increased to 6.1% in September – the highest rate since 1994.

OBSERVATION - the retention of record high Fed prime rates and their impact on the broader market is only going to get worse, especially if the Fed continues to raise rates, as recent discussions suggest.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Growing violence associated with these pro-Hamas protests

Yesterday, a pro-Palestine mob attacked a Christian man in Skokie, Illinois. He was helping elderly Jewish people escape from protestors.

Zach Metzger, the leftist Minneapolis city council candidate (Democrat) & participant in the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots that torched neighborhoods, is revealed to be among the pro-Palestine mob that surrounded and attacked an elderly driver. This protest used intimidation tactics developed by Antifa et al of stopping cars and attempting to assault the driver/passengers. The escalation of violence using this tactic is concerning.

The pro-hamas group has built upon the 2020 use of these traffic blocks. They have added drones to provide overwatch / command and control; placement of vehicles to strengthen the blockade; squad type hand radios for key forces and developed ‘chase’ elements to go after and try to stop vehicles that push thru the blockade. The link below is from the Minnesota blockade of yesterday where you can see these elements laid out.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9LG7wYb0AAmcxF?format=jpg&name=medium

As I said, the level of violence associated with this tactic is high. So too is the planning and coordination by key elements that only need the presence of the useful idiots to inflame the situation. The terrorist/protestors will probably increase the use of guns for greater intimidation while citizens go to guns as well for self defense. We saw this cycle up during the 2020 riots.

Antifa backed terror protestors will likely accelerate other forms of violence as the war progresses.

***
Students at Auburn Riverside High School were attacked by organized groups of masked men as they ran through the halls.
Fox 13 News reported that “the five people approached a side door of the school building around 1 p.m., which was locked while class is in session,” but “a student opened the door for them, thinking they were supposed to be on campus.” (wrong, he was likely a gang wanna be)
After the school went on lockdown, local police were allowed to provide security for the students.
More than 500 students were kept home from school after last Monday’s attack.
In the Ballard section of Seattle, gangs of masked and armed robbers have lain in wait for students walking home and robbed them of wallets, money, and cell phones. The same thing happened to students walking home from the nearby Whitman Middle School.
Students report being jumped and mugged by four to six armed gangsters, according to KOMO News.

OBSERVATION - Collapse of society is accelerating and the will to actually take back the streets. Notice that police were “allowed to provide security” wait, what? Get out of blue cities, they are in the process of imploding. Dystopia is now here.

Terrorism -

There is no evidence of a hate crime in the murder of Samantha Woll, a beloved synagogue president and founder of the Muslim-Jewish Forum of Detroit, Detroit Police Chief James White said, according to USA Today.

OBSERVATION - Currently, radical moslems are part of the ‘protected’ class and likely never to be publicly acknowledged for this act.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Aircraft watchers have noted overnight of a large number of bombers, tankers and other aircraft in the air over the S Cal region. Others noted tankers headed over the Pacific and a pair of bombers headed towards England. No formal announcement from the Pentagon though some think it is part of a planned exercise.

***
RUMINT. Iranian Propaganda Channels claimed hat the Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer, USS Carney (DDG-64) was attacked. Never happened. Word of caution: A senior U.S. defense official said today that they are dealing w/ an “acute” environment of disinformation, w/ claims of attacks on U.S. forces in Middle East that have not happened.

***
According to a report published by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, the U.S. is “ill-prepared” for an “existential threat” of two peer nuclear adversaries.

***
The United States is deploying a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. The system will reportedly be positioned in an undisclosed location near the eastern Mediterranean. Some reports suggest that western Iraq and Jordan may be likely locations.

***
CBS is reporting that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and its strike group — which last weekend Austin had announced was being deployed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to join the USS Gerald R. Ford — will instead be heading to the Persian Gulf, Austin disclosed Saturday. The Ike is currently in the mid Atlantic region and will have to transit thru the Suez Canal and sail past the hostile Houthi’s to get to station. This could take as much as a couple of weeks.

USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), a destroyer in the Gerald R. Ford CSG, transited the Suez Canal to Red Sea and CENTCOM area of responsibility, likely to reinforce USS Carney (DDG-64). This suggests that destroyers currently with the Ford could be exchanged for some of the Ike’s destroyers as it transits the Suez Canal as well.

The sudden shift of the Ike to the CENTCOM region is a bit of a surprise since the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. It could be easily redirected further west to form a two carrier task force in the Persian Gulf region.

The Reagan CSG continues to operate in areas close to Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - Sudden nuke bomber activity combined with a shift to more directly threaten Iran and its proxy forces in the region has raised my eyebrows some. Apart from news surrounding the Ike, these other actions are seemingly being kept low key.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The GOP House speaker election gets underway on Tuesday with 8 candidates after the conclusion of a closed-door candidates forum on Monday night. The declared candidates include Republican Reps. Jack Bergman, Mich., Byron Donalds, Fla., Tom Emmer, Minn., Kevin Hern, Okla., Mike Johnson, La. Gary Palmer, Ala., Austin Scott, Ga. and Pete Sessions, Texas.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden’s schizophrenic Israel / Hamas policies have created a widening split in the democrat party into pro-Israel and pro-Hamas (terror) sections.

China –

See Europe / NATO General below regarding Estonia and Chinese ship “Newnew PolarBear” suspected espionage.

****
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday curbed exports of graphite, a critical mineral used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). The move could make a shortage of graphite more likely at a time when worldwide EV demand is soaring.
China last year accounted for close to two-thirds of global production of graphite and all but 2% of spherical graphite output, the final product used in anodes for lithium-ion batteries

OBSERVATION - For the past many years, China has maneuvered to gain a chokehold on strategic minerals and production. This effort accelerated with wuhan and the realignment of global economy post wuhan. This has the potential to crush the mandated shift to EVs here and around the world.

***
CNN — China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu was fired on Tuesday two months after he disappeared from public view, becoming the second high-profile minister to lose his job recently without any official explanation.

The disappearance and dismissal of two senior ministers in quick succession has raised questions about the governance of Xi, who has made China’s political system even more opaque as he concentrates power and enforces strict party discipline.
Xi has also ramped up a campaign to bolster national security, seeking to eliminate any perceived threats and vulnerabilities to the ruling Communist Party amid rising tensions with the West.

OBSERVAITON - XI faces a potential economic melt down while maneuvering to take over Taiwan. He has to surround himself with absolute loyalists to avoid any kind of a coup should the economic bottom fall out before moving on Taiwan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

*****

Analysts/Observers are noting that in spite of the substantial losses in the campaign to take Avdiivka, Russian high command continues to make the push, raising some questions as to how much does putin know about the situation there.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain increasing to nearly every day in the forecast for starting 25th of October.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones in Vinnytsia, Khmelnitsky and Mykolaiv regions. Relative very low activity.

Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka incurring heavy equipment and personnel losses. They did manage to made slight gains to the NE of the town.

Continued fighting on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.

Tokmak Axis -.
Under the cover of heavy fog and intense artillery, Ukraine conducted a surprise offensive strike against the Russian lines between Robotyne and Kopani. Ukraine tanks, Bradleys and infantry advanced with heavy fighting. Russian sources stated the the fog made it nearly impossible to locate targets and direct fire on them.
Fog=Nature’s Smoke Screen, NATO Armor + Thermal Imagery and Sights

Kherson Axis -
Mandatory evacuation for families with children has been announced for 25 towns all along the right (west) bank of the Dniper River. Ukraine forces still maintain three crossing sites and continue to hold against Russian attacks to drive them back. Some rumors that Ukraine may stage an air assault operation to expand and break thru Russian defenses.

Crimean front —
Russian authorities reported drone attack in Sevastopol.

OUTLOOK -
With details continuing to be foggy, Avdiivka still is the focus of considerable Russian efforts while Ukraine threatens to expand its bridgeheads across the Dniper River. Some slowdown is apparent as an extended period of rain is expected which will slow some operations down considerably.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Govt sources state that 22 Russian media websites will be blocked in Moldova. Among them are RT, Zvezda and Tsargrad.

Europe / NATO General –

Turkish President Erdogan has submitted the the protocol for Sweden’s admission to NATO. It needs to be ratified by the Turkish Parliament, but that it is only a formality.

***
Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announces it has contacted the Chinese authorities to encourage them to cooperate in the investigation into the damages caused on the Balticconnector gas pipeline.

The Chinese-owned container ship Newnew PolarBear is the main suspect

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

Hamas released two more hostages, very elderly women, who were beaten before being dragged into the Hamas tunnel network. Hamas says two women released for ‘humanitarian reasons and poor health grounds’.

GENERAL ——————————-

Midst cries of no fuel for hospital generators, Hamas holds onto multiple thousands of gallons of fuel.
The propaganda war continues at peak intensity. Israel held a special viewing of the unedited body cam videos taken by the Hamas terrorists of the Oct 7 attack for journalists. Included was security camera footage. Journalists were generally shocked at the level of violence and cruelty. Hamas OTOH, continues to play the victim in numerous outlets on the interwebs as well as complaint global news networks.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Fire was exchanged between IDF and Hamas terrorists near the border, Al Maghazi, eastern Gaza overnight. Initial reports suggested that his could be the start of ground ops. However, later information suggested that this was another, but strong, recon in force by IDF.

Aircraft and artillery continued to grind away on targets in Gaza. Hamas et al return rocket fire continues to be considerably suppressed.

Hamas claims to have 35,000 fighters in the Gaza Strip.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continues the harassing ATGM fire on Israeli troops as well as attacking the Mt Doc site. Israel continues to pound Hezbollah / southern Lebanon with air and artillery strikes.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, has issued a threatening statement, declaring that they are prepared to launch missile strikes directly at Haifa if deemed necessary.

Macron - Hezbollah is on the verge of war, and we understand the emerging challenges in this regard

WEST BANK——————————-

Scattered fighting between West Bank arabs and Israeli police as more Hamas affiliated terrorists are arrested.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

French President Emmanuel Macron proposed on Tuesday that an international coalition fighting against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria be widened to include the fight against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.

The U.S. Department of Defense stated tonight that there is a high possibility that security conditions for our interests in the Middle East will continue to deteriorate.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - I’ve said it a lot, the ground war will start soon. There is a lot of speculation as to what the hold up is. In part it seems biden is trying to let Hamas play its game of dribbling out hostages to show just how wonderful they are. Other reports are that biden asked for a delay to get US military forces prepositioned to respond to Iran if necessary. This could ultimately stretch out for a couple weeks, and it seems Israel is ready to go sooner rather than later. Indicators are that the US considers current force deployment nominal and reinforcements will be arriving in a timely manner should Iran get froggy.

Iran –

US has intel that Iran-backed groups are planning to ramp up attacks on US troops in the Middle East as Iran seeks to capitalize on backlash to US support of Israel. There are “red lights flashing everywhere,” official said

Lebanon -

See Israel above.

Syria -

See Israel above on latest.

Reports of explosions at both the Al-Tanaf and Al-Omar bases in Syria used by coalition troops. Early indications of another attack. IRGC backed militias continue to target bases in Syria and Iraq and without any U.S response as yet.