Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Relatively quiet for the moment. The biggest items are the aftershocks from the midterms and growing potential for an internal republican war on many fronts – for Senate/House leadership and for the coveted spot as the party’s presidential candidate. Unchallenged corrupted elections are spelling the end of our republic. As a saying goes “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”. Well documented now is that extended, drawn out vote counting almost always results in a democrat win. The powers that be are making sure we can’t vote our way out of tyranny .. . .. …

Globalism / Great Reset –

Noting this here because it feeds into the GGR global digitial ID/credit system –
FTX collapse is causing numerous govt investigations that will only lead to one thing, regulation of the crypto sector and eventual replacement of the system with a govt digital currency. For several years now the ever expanding Marxists in govt have been plotting on how to overthrow the wide open crypto market. The govt cannot allow such free market actions go without regulation – or especially being taxed. Multiple nations are working towards a digital currency and the US is one of them. However, it would appear that crypto’s protection of individual users and their transactions would still be favored by those skeptical of an official govt currency. Govt answer – destroy crypto. Putting on conspiracy hats – some believe FTX was designed from the get go to explode to give govt the opportunity/reason to regulate the industry. Bonus is the billions of ‘savings’ lost with this crash – all the more economic turmoil that the big global saviors of the GGR are counting upon when they bring their ‘plan’ to save the world forward.

BTW – it appears that the WEF is scrubbing its website of any link to FTX. Hmmmm

Wuhan virus –

Economy –

Inflation expectations from the New York Federal Reserve over a one and five-year time horizon increased during October to 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively, up from September forecasts of 5.4% and 2.2%.

The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division – International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED), the third largest rail union, agreed to an extended “cooling off” period that pushes a potential strike back to 04 December. BMWED will extend the deadline to 09 December if the two largest rail unions vote down the contract agreement. The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB) voted Monday to reject the contract agreement.

OBSERVATION – Things are not looking good to avoid a rail shut down. Not sure what they are gamming – that congress will back down and force their demands or let it ride? Either way, now with three unions negative on contracts it will be hard to shift momentum away from a strike.

The world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, will begin laying off 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times. This follows announcements from Facebook (Meta) of the laying off of about 10,000. Disney looking to put a lot of folks out the door as well.
FedEx Freight, the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the U.S., will furlough an unknown number of drivers for 90 days starting in early December. According to FedEx, this is in response to slowing economic conditions that have impacted LTL demand.

OBSERVATION – In Amazon’s and FedEx cases, the layoffs reflect a lot of the decline of the economy now headed into an unavoidable recession. In Facebook and Disney’s corner – going woke is resulting in going broke.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), head of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said he will not schedule a confirmation hearing for President Joe Biden’s nominee Richard Glick for a second term as one of the nation’s top energy regulators. Manchin’s stance left the future of another five-year term for Glick uncertain. Glick could serve through the end of this year, though his term runs out when the current congress adjourns on Jan. 2 or before.
In March, Manchin, along with the commission’s two Republicans, lashed out at the FERC’s policy for scrutinizing interstate gas pipelines. Glick approved new guidelines in February that would have assessed greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts, including those on “environmental justice communities,” when approving natural gas projects.

OBSERVATION - Deliberate action by the administration to overregulate the industry to death. Will be interesting to monitor Manchin over the next two years as he comes up for election. His fellow democrats broke their word and stabbed him in the back the last couple of months when he sold himself out to their green global power grab. With a likely gain of democrats in the Senate, his vote is not really one that counts anymore – either way. Will he buck up against Schumer again or will Schumer cart him away to obscurity for his crimes against the party and its narrative.
Plant pathogens that are spreading disease in the lettuce fields of the Salinas Valley in the Central Coast are leading to a nationwide lettuce shortage and higher prices at the supermarket. At Nob Hill in Salinas, a head of lettuce was being sold for more than $4 on Monday.

OBSERVATION – Challenges continue in the agriculture sector – demonstrating the delicate balance of the economy and production. Salad may seem minor, but it demonstrates the potential volatility of the market in general.

CW2/Domestic violence –

As I’m noting in other sections of this post, political pieces are being moved into place that are increasing the potential for an actual hot CW2 scenario to begin. Open hostility and calls for violent reactions by leftists towards the right are going to encourage increased attacks by the left – real physical attacks. The right will only be poked so many times and will need to choose carefully its response(s) because the deep state/swamp entrenched in DC is looking for an excuse to crackdown on 50% of the country. So few of our country remember the abuses that socialistic govts under the Soviet Union inflicted on its citizenry – yet our govt is enroute to do the same here to us.
Antifa et al have lately seemed to be focused on supporting aggressive trans “rights” actions and physically shutting down any rally to oppose them.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sadly, mark this date as fair elections in this country are now but a memory, the last one being in 2016. Will the republican culprits behind this latest surrender be held responsible? Hopefully at least one will. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) favorability has hit a record low, according to Civiqs polling released Monday. Just 7 percent of voters view McConnell favorably, while 81 percent view him unfavorably. Among the Republican party, only 18 percent of Republicans approve of McConnell. Sixty-one percent disapprove.
And now these items!
1. Documents show McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund received $2,500,000 from someone at FTX.
2. Schumer announces talks with McConnell to sideline “maga” republicans to get stuff done in congress.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Monday on CNN’s “This Morning” that he was meeting with Senat Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in the wake of midterm election results to convince Republican senators to ditch so-called “MAGA Republicans.”
Co-host Kaitlan Collins said, “Are you going to talk to Mitch McConnell? What does that look like?”
Schumer said, “I’m going to say to the Republicans in the Senate who are not the MAGA Republicans, stop letting them lead your party. Work with us to get things done. I intend to sit down with Mitch McConnell and express that.”

There appears to be a movement in the Republican senate that is gaining traction to remove McConnell and replace him with someone with more fire in their blood. Of course there are sympathic elements of the eGOP fighting this, but the disaster of 2022 where the democrats actually gained senate seats to too onerous to ignore.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference this with CW2 as well. If items 1 and 2 above come out true, then the fix was in and free elections are no more. The thought generally held by the right/conservatism is that we can and should work through constitutional means to influence out govt – ie the ‘revolutions’ that are to take place at the one time free and fair elections. When that is stripped away by fraud that is condoned by republican ‘leadership’, the pressure switch gets pretty dicy. I noted in an earlier post the comment that I heard saying that the left considers violence to be like a thermostat – raising violence up or down as required. Same comments related the right as considering violence as an on/off switch – hence the reluctance to become violent. This kind of crap from McConnell and others is just pushing the pressure gauge even higher.

China –

Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping concluded over three hours of blunt talks centered on relations between the two countries, regional security issues, climate change, and Taiwan. The two leaders detailed their various “red lines” in a purported effort to avoid both a new Cold War and a hot conflict over Taiwan.

OBSERVATION – Talks were mostly posturing. At this stage China doesn’t seem very concerned about any US responses due to the dotard in the WH.

Crowds of residents in southern China’s industrial metropolis Guangzhou have escaped a compulsory lockdown and clashed with police, as anger at strict coronavirus curbs boiled over.
Dramatic footage shows some overturning a police vehicle and tearing down Covid control barriers. Riot teams have now been deployed in the area.
It follows Guangzhou’s worst Covid outbreak since the pandemic began.
Local governments across China are struggling to maintain a zero-Covid approach without trashing their economies. The latest official factory output and retails sales figures show the crushing impact of the pandemic and the government’s policy response to it.

OBSERVATION – Recent economic news from China shows a significant slow down of the economy – due in significant measure to the economic disruptions from these wuhan lockdowns, coupled with global slide into a recession. China may well soon face a harsh reality that an expensive military build up requires a reasonable economy and not one that has critical sectors shut down for weeks at a time.

North/South Korea –

The South Korean president assures his Chinese counterpart his desire to build a “mature and mutually beneficial” relationship between the two countries.

OBSERVATION- China’s response was essentially a shrug of the shoulders and a “yeh, what ever” attitude.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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UN General Assembly approves resolution recognizing Russia must be responsible for reparations in Ukraine. It establishes an international mechanism to compensate for the losses caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Putin signed a decree that allows Russian army to mobilize foreigners. The decree, publicly released by the Kremlin, redefines the term citizen in Russian conscription laws to include those with “citizenship of a foreign state” and those with a “residence permit: or other document confirming the right to permanent residence as a citizen in the territory of a foreign state.” Russian laws previously exempted foreigners from military conscription, allowing only voluntary enlistments.

Economic Impact –
- Polish and German officials announced their countries will nationalize assets belonging to Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom. Both actions are designed to protect Polish/German companies from bankruptcy as well as end Russia controls over them.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An uptick in Russian attacks are being noted along the front in the Donetsk sector with Russians conducting localized offensives concentrated to southeast and east of Bakhmut, around Soledar, near Kreminna and on multiple settlements northwest of Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire also occurred in these area.

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate its gains and has resumed effective targeting of Russian ammo dumps, command posts and troop concentrations in areas east of the Dnipir River. One strike at Hola Prystan resulted in several hours of secondary explosions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Russia has been launching increasingly stronger attacks along the border northeast of Kharkiv.
Meanwhile, along the Svatove – Kreminna line, fighting was centered northwest and southwest of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
Fighting around Bahkmut increased in intensity over night but with no further Russian gains. Russian forces intensified offensive operations around Avdiivka–Donetsk City on November 13 and 14. One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces aim to capture Vodiane, which would allow them to bypass Avdiivka and ultimately take Tonenke (about 19km northwest of Donetsk City), in an effort to cut off Ukrainian supply lines in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Unconfirmed reports that recently mobilized conscripts as well as forces pulled out of Kherson are being rapidly redeployed into the Donetsk region to build for a reinvigorated push.

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian news outlets claimed that Russian troops captured Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City). (Same city Ukraine destroyed 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade)

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine artillery systems resumed the big logistics hits in Russia occupied Kherson. Overnight, heavy explosions were reported in Hola Prystan, Kalanchak, Skadovsk, Skadovsk and Lazurne.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile / drone attacks are sporadically hitting targets in central, southern and eastern Ukraine.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Growing threat of Russia trying to light the fire to refocus on the capture of the rest of the Donbas region. Reports indicate the bulk of the mobilized conscripts along with units from Kherson are being reorganized and put into the battle. These essentially human wave attacks will probably overwhelm some Ukrainian positions, leading to very limited gains by Russia. However, current operations show no signs of coordinating attacks to support each other towards reasonable tactical/strategic objectives.

Additionally, these accumulating forces are varying ranges of military readiness. Integrating them all together into a cohesive combat force will be extremely difficult. This task made worse by the heavy toll on officers and communications that have only gotten worse with time. Russia only has a small window as Ukraine is also redeploying forces to the region as well – those who morale and equipment is superior to the current Russian soldier.
Finally, Russia hasn’t done well persecuting its attacks thru the Ukraine mud and here, once again, Ukraine holds the home field advantage.

Iran -

Protests continue across Iran, with the strongest being in Kurdish dominated western-northwestern Iran. It is here where the most violence occurs. Iran has sent more warnings to Iraq about Iraqi Kurds supporting the protests and have threatened more military strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan in the future.

Taking an even harder line, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Iranian lawmakers to vote in favor of executing 15,000 protesters for participating in the protests. The Iranian Parliament has not officially confirmed the vote in favor of mass executions but the Iranian officials did advocate for “no leniency” for protesters days ago.

Globalism / Great Reset –

World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab on Tuesday delivered remarks at the G20 Summit and promoted the “Great Reset” to world leaders

“What we have to confront is a deep systemic and structural restructuring of our world. This will take some time and the world will look differently after we have gone through this transition process,” Schwab said.

Earlier this year Schwab warned of global cyberattacks and worldwide disruptions with food and energy systems. “History is truly at a turning point,” Schwab said at the 2022 World Government Summit in March.
“We do not yet know the full extent and the systemic structural changes which will happen, however, we do know the global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains will be deeply affected,” Schwab said speaking on the economic fallout from Covid-19, dangers of climate change and clashing world governments.

OBSERVATION - Lets ask the question – what country does Schwab represent as this is a meeting of govt leaders? WHY DID THEY LET HIM SPEAK?
His statement of change to “global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains” is particularly concerning – is he leading his punch? These areas have already been severely stressed by wuhan related nonsense and it wouldn’t take much to gum up the works once again. The reference to turning points and the overall context suggest that he intends that things happen soon.

MORE -

At the B20 (the Business 20 (B20) is an event that is part of the G20 Summit it is meant to express common views from the international business community) Health Minister of Indonesia Budi Gunadi Sadikin advocated for a global digital health certificate to track the movement of vaccinated individuals.

Speaking to the crowd, Sadikin said, “Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO. If you have been vaccinated or tested properly, then you can move around. So for the next pandemic, instead of stopping the movement of the people one hundred percent, which [collapse] the economy globally, you can still provide some movement of the people.”

Sadikin went on to say that an agreement to have this digital certificate using WHO standards had been reached between the G20 countries and Indonesia.

“Indonesia has achieved… G20 countries have agreed to have this digital certificate using WHO standards, and we will suck it into the next World Assembly in Geneva as the revision to international health regulations. So hopefully, for the next pandemic, we can still see some movement of the people, some movement of the goods, and some movement of the economy.”

OBSERVATION – The GGR is maneuvering and doing so quickly for this ‘digital passport’ effort, which will likely then be quickly merged into a digital monetary system and social credit system. If this really has been agreed at to at the G20, those who choose not to get vaccinated will be forced to give up their basic human rights.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York began a simulated digital currency initiative on Tuesday alongside multiple major banks as the cryptocurrency sector descends into chaos.
The digital dollar simulation, which is slated to last for 12 weeks, will “experiment with the concept of a regulated liability network,” a concept for a financial market infrastructure that would facilitate “digital asset transactions that connect deposits held at regulated financial institutions using distributed ledger technology,” according to a press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Analysts will test the “feasibility of payments between financial institutions” using tokenized assets.
Among other financial institutions, Citi, Mastercard, BNY Mellon, and Wells Fargo will partake in the simulation, which will determine whether the project is feasible for broader rollout and lead to technical design insights.

OBSERVATION – The convergence of digital currency, digital vaccine and social credit data is set to be coming on even faster. When will they actually merge - most likely after they have all the components operating separately and a new global crisis hits to propel the merger.

Wuhan virus –

The CEOs of the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association sent a letter to the White House and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) asking them to declare an emergency due to a surge in pediatric hospitalizations. The letter claims that 75% of pediatric hospital beds across the country are full and that increased hospitalizations are due to pediatric respiratory syncytial virus and influenza.

OBSERVATION – wuhan triggered an addiction to fed free money by the medical system. Wuhan also triggered lowering of natural immunity by closing off person to person contacts. The current ‘surge’ (questionable) is because those natural methods of enhanced immunity were denied for a better part of over a year.

Economy –

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said in an interview that inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation without a recession. George said that labor is the driver of inflation now, rather than supply chain or production shortages, and the real challenge for policymakers is prematurely ending rate increases.(FO)

OBSERVATION - Fed being coy now about a recession being planned into the mix. Labor costs have increased as a result of shortages in labor and by labor demands to keep up with inflation. A vicious circle that has its external foundations on supply chain and production shortages. See PPI release below

The October read on producer inflation showed some of the highest numbers in months on key indicators of price increases. Month-over-month, headline PPI inflation advanced 0.2 percent in October — the same as in September — and prices upstream from consumers increased a full eight percent in the 12 months ending in October.
The core PPI number that excludes more volatile foods, energy, and trade services also saw prices increase 0.2 percent for an annual advance of 5.4 percent.
Some of the more alarming data points in the latest Producer Price Index report include the index for final demand goods, which advanced 0.6 percent in October — the largest advance since June when that metric increased 2.2 percent.
What’s more, 60 percent of October’s price increases for final demand goods are attributable to the index for gasoline which jumped 5.7 percent. At the same time, prices also increased for diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, residential electric power, chicken eggs, and oil and gas field machinery.

OBSERVATION – These numbers are harbingers of continued high inflation rates and will likely be used by the Fed to justify continued large increases in the prime rate. Not good in the long run.

During a portion of an interview with NBC News on Monday aired on Tuesday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that she thinks there are “good indications” that show inflation “is poised to come down,” but she doesn’t want to make predictions on a month-to-month basis and she believes that “over the next couple of years,” “inflation will come back down toward normal levels we’re accustomed to.”

OBSERVATION - A couple of YEARS, before the return to normal.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that President Biden is considering a mandate requiring oil companies to store more fuel in the United States. Granholm also said fuel export curbs are still an option the administration is considering. A minimum storage mandate would require action from Congress, and a bill to expand the Northeast home heating oil reserve is pending. Oil industry representatives warned that a mandate or export curb would increase prices in the short term. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Right now petroleum companies are making more money selling offshore than here in the US. Oil companies don’t want to lose that profit – particularly when forced on a volaille US market. It will cost companies to store these reserves and that cost will be passed on.

Recently enacted Public Law 117-58 includes $125M to pilot a national mileage fee and state mileage tax programs. House Infrastructure and Infrastructure Committee Chair Peter DeFazio (D-OR) stated that the government must move away from fuel taxes and towards a sustainable way to fund the Highway Trust Fund. (FO)

OBSERVATION – The onset of EVs and hybreds will impact fuel taxes in theory as there is less fuel sold. However, don’t expect fed and state taxes to go away if a mileage tax is introduced – govt loves taxes.

Invasion of Illegals –

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports a record number of encounters with illegal immigrants in October. CBP announced that 230,678 encounters with illegal immigrants took place during the month of October. That number is up 2% over September. The third highest in history.

Texas Gov Abbot invoked Texas and US constitutions to declare an invasion on the border.
“I invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion.
I’m using that constitutional authority, & other authorization & Executive Orders to keep our state & country safe:
⁃ Deploying national guard to repel ad turn back illegals.
⁃ Deploy Texas dept of public safety to arrest and return illegals and to arrest illegals for criminal activity
⁃ Build a border wall in multiple counties on the borde r.
⁃ Deploy gun boats to secure border
⁃ Designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations
⁃ Enter into compact with other states to secure border
⁃ Enter into foreign powers to secure border
⁃ Provide resources to border counties to increase their effort to respond to the border invasion”

OBSERVATION - Expect the feds to immediately run this to courts to stop. This is a very aggressive response to the flood of illegals at the border. Will Texas guard/LEO face off against feds (I suspect the every day border patrol agent is supportive of Texas – so agitators will likely come from some other DHS source) Clearly a response to the continued record of illegals. Some may complain why it took him so long to invoke. Reality is he needed the precedent that the feds are not being effective in their assigned constitutional roles to justify this. Yeh, suckage, but necessary for a move of such magnitude.

A federal judge has just blocked the use of Title 42 at the border as a result of ACLU litigation. Title 42 allows the U.S. to immediately expel migrants on the basis of public health. It has been used millions of times under both Trump & Biden

OBSERVATION – To be appealed, to some extent. Uber-leftist Clinton appointed judge. Earlier this year the Biden administration attempted to end its use last May, saying the policy was no longer necessary to protect the country’s public health, but a federal court in Louisiana blocked the administration from winding it down completely.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden didn’t attend a G20 dinner.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Texas invokes constitutions to stop illegals, read above

During last week’s election, Oregon voters passed Measure 114, which has been heralded as one of the most restrictive gun laws in the nation. According to The Oregonian, the law will require people to obtain a permit to purchase a firearm, after successfully completing a firearms safety course at their own expense and paying a $65 fee. It also bans the sale or transfer of magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition. State police will conduct a background check on permitted buyers prior to any gun sale. Purchasers will need to submit a photo ID and their fingerprints.

OBSERVATION – Constitutional sheriffs – the growing battle line being drawn in the CW2 precursors. They will become one of the tips of the spear as tyrannical govts try to strip rights from citizens. Little wonder eastern Oregon wants to leave and join Idaho. Quite frankly I wish they’d create their own separate state.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Facebook will not fact check comments made by former President Donald Trump now that he officially has announced a campaign for president in 2024, CNN reported.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Christy Smith concedes to Mike Garcia in CA27, Giving Republicans control of the House with 218 seats. There are still several other races out there pending that could go republican as well, giving the GOP a limited majority in the House.

Trump announced his bid for president in 2024.

Kevin McCarthy has apparently won the nomination for House Speaker.

McConnell is facing serious challenges to maintain his position as the minority leader.

China –

Overall observation is that Xi came out on top of the ‘discussions’ with biden.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

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Massive missile attack on Ukraine has Russia receiving a lot of push back – see Ukraine below. Almost the ‘mistake’ that could have caused a NATO article 5 response.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Massive missile attack across Ukraine yesterday apparently attacking the power grid. About a hundred rockets were fired, most of the hits were recorded in the center and north of the country. This is the most massive shelling of the energy system since the beginning of the war, said Energy Minister Halushchenko. There are hits on civilian areas, air defense was working all over the country.

According to Ukraine general staff, Russian army launched over 90 Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles, and over 10 combat drones. Air Defense reportedly shot down 77 cruise missiles and 10 Shahed-136.

Emergency power outages have been applied in all regions, people are reporting communication disconnections.

Effects were not isolated to Ukraine, damages caused power outages in Moldova. Hungary MOL says received notification from Ukraine that power station near Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine near Belarussian border was hit by Russian rocket.

However the most serious incident was two stray rockets that fell in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine. They hit the grain dryers. Two people died.

Polish PM Morawiecki convened the emergency meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security & Defense Affairs. Article 4 of NATO was initially called for by Poland, but later withdrawn (NOT Article 5). NATO ministers will discuss the situation at their already prescheduled meeting today.

Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously.

Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile – though investigation is ongoing.

Polish president Duda said the Russian side is responsible for what happened yesterday. “yesterday we watched Russia’s massive attack against Ukraine; areas near the border with Poland were also bombed. The Russian side is to blame for the situation. There is no indication of an intentional attack on Poland”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg – “The fact that the missile exploded in Poland results almost directly from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and the more we will support and strengthen Ukraine in its natural right to self-defense. Russia must finally stop this war.”

It is pretty clear that this missile barrage was an intended response to the loss of Kherson.

Russian attacks in the southeast yesterday were all repelled, with fighting continuing to be the most intensive east of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar

Russian shelling remained intensive yesterday north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Sporadic Russian artillery

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
Main war effort of Russia refocusing on this region with continued ground and artillery attacks.

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
With the exception of a few Russian artillery strikes, activity in this sector has dropped way down.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks discussed above.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia expended a lot of its increasingly scarce guided missiles yesterday. And even though it is currently looking like it was a stray Ukraine ADA missile fired in self defense that hit Poland, Russia is going to be held accountable for starting it.

Analysts keep saying that Russia has run out or is running out of its high-tech missiles – the big question is just how many do they have left? Russia’s increasing reliance on Iranian made systems suggests that Russian made stocks are really getting low. Russia has the capability to conduct surges in this kind of missile warfare, but it is no longer sustainable like it was in the early months of the war.

I expect Russia to continue to attempt to destroy the Ukraine power grid as winter approaches.

On the ground, well its still Russia attacking across a generally broad front in the east. They have unlearned the lessons of the first months of the war, returning to scattered, small unit attacks that are not coordinated with adjacent units against objectives of little tactical advantage. In short – the meat grinder. Russian attack intensity is expected to increase with the transfer of forces from Kherson and back fill of mobilized conscripts. APC, tank and artillery shortages will be acute given the losses in Kherson alone, and Russia is relying heavier and heavier on older, Soviet equipment like the T-62.
Russian generals and senior staff are short handed and are trying to weld together the fragments of these remaining units to create a functioning army. Suggests more ineffective attacks and continued high losses.

The onset of winter will favor the better motivated and equipped Ukrainian army, enabling it to pursue the offense and keep the Russians disorganized. But at this stage things are slowing down to a slog as the weather turns to hard rain and snow.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Power interrupted by Russian missile attacks see above

Poland -

Stray S300 killed two, see above in Ukraine

.
Europe / NATO General –

NATO action readiness increased due to collateral missile damage/deaths in Poland see above.

“Italy believes it does not make much difference if the missile that caused a deadly explosion in Poland was not Russian, because Moscow is still to blame for attacking infrastructure in Ukraine, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Wednesday.”

OBSERVATION – this is reflecting a lot of European opinion.

Israel –

Israeli official – “Targeting a ship in the Sea of Oman is an Iranian provocation”

OBSERVATION – Not the first time Iran has targeted a ship owned by an Israeli firm and particularly Ofer (see Iran below).

Iran -

Oil tanker associated with Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer was struck by an Iranian drone off the coast of Oman last night. The vessel is the Liberian-flagged Pacific Zircon, operated by Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping. Ship’s stern slightly damaged and crew is ok.

Protests continue throughout much of Iran.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Tuesday announced a climate deal that will send Indonesia $20 billion over the next three-to-five years to push the country to shut down its coal plants.
The initiative is intended to help Indonesia, the world’s chief coal exporter, phase out coal production and switch to green energy in order to reach global targets for reducing carbon emissions, according to a White House fact sheet. Half of the money will be spent by countries that are part of the International Partners Group, including the U.S., Japan and Canada, while the other half will be provided by private financial institutions led by the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero to accelerate Indonesia’s green transition over the three-to-five-year period.

Indonesia will work to ensure that its power sector emissions will peak by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, bringing its net zero targets forward by ten years, according to the fact sheet. The nation will also aim to make sure that renewable energy accounts for at least 34% of all power generation by 2030.

OBSERVATION – 3-5 year transition to what source of ‘green’ energy are we talking here? Another dumpster fire in the making. Meanwhile, this action also hurts American coal producers by taking away another customer.

Biden’s climate envoy John Kerry announced on Nov. 9 that the Biden administration was partnering with the Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation to reward developing countries with “marketable carbon credits” if they reduce CO2 emissions from their power sector or make investments in green energy.

OBSERVATION – What ever the heck “marketable carbon credits” are. Biden administration refused to provide details.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday cleared meat grown in a laboratory for human consumption, marking the first time the agency has done so.

The decision means that Berkeley, California-headquartered UPSIDE Foods, formerly known as Memphis Meats, will be able to bring its “cultivated chicken” products to the market once it has been inspected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to its website, UPSIDE Foods is a food technology company founded in 2015 that aims to grow “sustainable cultured meat.” It cites investors including Bill Gates and Sir Richard Branson.
The company grows meat, poultry, and seafood by harvesting the cells from live animals and using them to grow the meat inside a cultivator. The cells are constantly nourished with an “optimized” feed that consists of “common compounds found in animal feed and human food, including amino acids, fatty acids, sugars, trace elements, salts, and vitamins.”

OBSERVATION – Something like out of science fiction. However, I’ll bet my bars that the whole process is far less efficient and way more costly than our current agricultural practices. Cattle do a pretty darn good job of converting plants into protein and without all the high tech necessary for fake meat.

Wuhan virus –

Biden is embarking on yet another battle over the COVID-19 pandemic, this time facing off with more than 60 senators who seek to end the national state of emergency over the virus.
In place since March 2020, the state of emergency grants Biden expanded powers, which he has used to push a host of policies. Tuesday night, the Senate voted 62-36 to end those emergency powers, with 13 senators who caucus with the Democrats joining all Republicans in support.

OBSERVATION – The state of emergency has given biden considerable extraconstitutional powers (that are currently being eroded away by court decisions BTW). Democrat powers in congress want some of that power back from biden..

Economy –

Turkey day is set to gobble gobble up your savings this year. A 2022 survey by the Farm Bureau shows that the average cost to feed 10 people for the holiday is up 20%.

If you have an aunt you can’t stand, now would be a good time to uninvite her to dinner next week. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

“The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – costs more than last year, at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird. That’s $1.81 per pound, up 21% from last year, due to several factors beyond general inflation,” the Farm Bureau said.

OBSERVATION - General inflation on all the food components for a traditional thanksgiving have been made worse by the ongoing bird flu epidemic that has forced another massive cull of poultry just prior to the holiday season. This is also why you can hardly find a turkey greater than 20 lbs in your local supermarket. I bought my 30+ pounder earlier this summer at lower prices. It pays to plan ahead.

Reading the tea leaves. Recent assessments from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suggest that they are expecting the much announced ‘soft landing’ for the economy created by the Fed prime rate increases and the resulting drop in the inflation rate in 2023. However, that is still a ways off and much can happen between now and then. PPI shows inflation pressures are still there and increasing as well as there being global factors that could blow this ‘soft landing’ scenario sky high. Remember too, much was said about inflation being “transitory” this time last year – how well has that worked out for us. Not being a financial guru, my gut feeling from life experience is that the big investment corporations are trying to calm fears of their investors by saying this scenario is one that can be ridden out and not to panic. We won’t know much for sure for the next several months yet – particularly now that we are through the midterm election cycle.

Oil executives and trade groups met with Biden administration officials and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) to discuss diesel stockpiles and the potential for a shortage this winter. Following the meeting, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and American Petroleum Institute trade groups released a joint statement saying that U.S. refineries are running at full capacity but that regulatory limitations and lack of pipeline connectivity are obstacles to getting diesel to the Northeast. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Huge leftist/greenie hurdle to overcome in getting new pipelines of any kind past environmental review in any short order. This is a structural defect that past environmental and govt road blocks have erected over the years and if the restrictions would be lifted still take many, many years to construct the needed pipelines. Biden et al wont clear regulatory restrictions as his view is that since he is killing fossil fuels there is no need for construction - but will pay lip service so as not to spill the beans on his goals.

Watching the oncoming train crash as the national leaders of SMART Transportation Division and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen stated at a joint press conference that they expect Congress to step in if the vote fails. A strike would involve more than 30 railroads, and the major railroads will likely throttle traffic a week ahead of the strike date.

OBSERVATION - How quickly congress will act is another question. The lame duck house may differ to the incoming republicans to deal with it. Now that the elections are past all bets are off.

Decreasing stock has driven the price of diesel up 50% this year, with gasoline seeing a 14% increase in price. Wholesale diesel traded at a record premium in October.

OBSERVATION – This is killing our economy – diesel is the life blood even more than gasoline. Personally, its killing me having to spend so much to fill up my diesel Jetta (35 mpg) at these exorbitant prices.

Leftists are very poor engineers. A study conducted by National Grid Plc. found that electrifying a typical highway gas station for passenger EVs would require as much power as a professional sports stadium. The study also found the projected power needs for a Truckstop servicing electric Semi trucks would be the same as a small town. (FO)

OBSERVATION - It is virtually impossible to construct enough solar/wind generators to replace the fossil fuel plants to necessary to produce this much energy. Secondly, transmission lines would need a significant upgrade to handle the increased current demands.

Invasion of Illegals –

Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Wednesday called for all “11 million” or “however many” illegal aliens there are in the US to be given amnesty because the American population “is not reproducing on its own at the same level that it used to.”

Previously, democrats bleated - “Proponents of this white nationalist, far-right conspiracy theory believe that a complicit or cooperative class of elites are advancing a plot designed to undermine the political power and culture of white Americans,” Schumer wrote in a letter for Fox News CEO Rupert Murdoch. “For years, these types of beliefs have existed at the fringes of American life. However, this pernicious theory, which has no basis in fact, has been injected into the mainstream thanks in large part to a dangerous level of amplification by your network and its anchors.”

OBSERVATION – Is the “replacement” conspiracy theory coming to pass? Clearly Schumer et al view these illegals as probable democrat voters – to maintain their power in govt. But if democrats didn’t have double standards, they’d have no standards at all. If this gets pushed, hopefully the new republican house will stop it – but then that isn’t even guaranteed any more.

Biden / Harris watch –

Recalibrating previous thoughts on democrats removing/replacing Biden and Harris. Now McCarthy is next in the succession to the presidency, so the deep state handlers most likely have to recalibrate.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Appropriate under cancel culture below – but has bigger play in the growing CW2 scenario developing here in the US. That being what’s called “stochastic terrorism” by the left. The article linked below does a far better job of describing this tactic than I can in this space.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_lefts_newest_stealth_attack_on_free_speech.html

The ultimate goal is presented - “In other words, your opinions are terrorist threats that, ideally, should lead you to a long stint in a federal prison, while my opinions (leftist democrats), which may be considerably more violent and imminent than yours, are nevertheless the beneficiary of First Amendment protections.”

We are seeing the move from attempted marginalization of opposing views to criminalization very quickly. My concerns as the now fast approaching 2024 presidential election comes down is to what extent biden et al will further weaponize the alphabet agencies (lead by DoJ and FBI) against citizens? With Trump officially in the race I fully expect to see a lot more of this.

Double file also under Cancel Culture but the Senate advancing the “Respect for Marriage Act” on Wednesday poses a threat to traditional America values and beliefs to the extent that criminal/civil assaults on organizations like churches can and likely will occur. Among the many threats –

1. The amendment offers no such protection for private businesses, such as wedding vendors, nor for individuals, and would create a “right to private action” for anyone who feels they were discriminated against.

2. The bill “equates belief in natural marriage with racism” and subjects adoption agencies, women’s shelters, and other nonprofits that serve their communities to further risk of lawsuits. And the right of private action in the bill “supercharges” the danger of lengthy, expensive lawsuits

3. There are no protections for religious based opinions or actions.

Bill was already passed by the House and was sidelined in the senate until after the elections. 12 Republicans voted with Democrats on Wednesday, passing the filibuster standard with 62 yes votes.

OBSERVATION – Courts will be filled with extensive lawsuits by LGBT et al groups, who’s sole purpose will be to silence conservative Christian viewpoints.

On another CW2/Domestic violence front, Target said its stores are getting looted at a massive scale. The damage to the bottom line has amounted to $400 million so far this year, the company said on a call with reporters on Wednesday. The company is not the only retailer to point to a rise in theft recently. A spokesman for CVS said earlier this year that it has experienced a 300 percent increase in theft. Rite Aid said in October it suffered $5 million in losses due to theft in NYC in the most recent quarter alone. Home Depot said it has been locking up more products during the past 12 months in an attempt to stem theft.

OBSERVATION – All fallout from the deliberate (and soros sponsored) efforts to neuter the police and prosecution of criminals. Purpose is to continue to spread panic and concerns in the population to eventually condition them to accept the ‘solution’ with open arms. Such levels of theft are also driving up prices as stores try to recoup their losses.
On a personal basis – A few months back visited family in Kalifornia. The vast majority of items at the local WalMart were locked up and it took a while to find an employee to unlock for us to get an iterm (personnel shortages). Here in the Redoubt very little is locked up – only guns/ammo and electronics.

An FBI official will be deposed in a lawsuit over alleged collusion between the Biden administration and social-media companies to censor speech on topics ranging from Hunter Biden’s laptop to Covid-19, a judge ruled Monday.
The ruling comes in response to a lawsuit by Missouri attorney general Eric Schmitt and Louisiana attorney general Jeff Landry accusing the federal government of working “hand-in-hand with social media companies to censor freedom of speech on their platforms.” The lawsuit has grown to include 67 defendants, including top officials at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the White House, and others.
Last month, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana granted the two states’ request for depositions from several top-ranking governmental officials.

OBSERVATION – More of the weaponization of FBI against citizens rights and blatant, unconstitutional interference in elections.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Wednesday won re-election as Senate GOP leader, fending off a challenge from Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and setting himself up to become the longest-serving party leader in the history of the Senate. McConnell won a vote that broke 37-10 and saw one senator abstain, according to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex.

OBSERVATION – Status quo in the senate for republicans. This could increase the chance of internal fighting as the next session of congress moves forward. The 12 republicans who supported the “Respect for Marriage Act” on Wednesday show a great deal of softness in a Senate that the republicans are actually poised to lose an additional seat in. The 50+ who voted for the same act in the house the same – willing to sell out the the democrats.

China –

Chinese aircraft and naval vessels continue to enter the Taiwan Strait, crossing into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, its government announced early Wednesday morning. Activity has remained high following pelsoi’s visit a few months ago.

OBSERVATION – Typical tactic to wear down the readiness of an opponent. However, Taiwan is recognizing patterns that suggest Chinese plans of attack by air and sea, and structuring its defense to counter them. While I don’t see direct conflict as being imminent, I do believe there is an increasing chance of something significant happening before the 2024 elections.

North/South Korea –

Reports now via @YonhapNews that a NK short-range ballistic missile was launched from the Wonsan region.

Also noting more rumors about an impending nuke test. NK has had that capability for many months now having constructed a new adit at the underground test site and upgrading surface facilities. It seems Kim is taking his time and will likely run a new test, but timeline wise its anyone’s guess at this time.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

Trial of the MH17 shoot down culprits is winding down, not looking good for Russian PR. Court statement - “The court has ascertained that the Russian Federation coordinated military actions in the DPR, financed and provided weapons to the militants, but also undertook military actions on its own. Russia was in full control of the DPR”

Kerch Bridge update –
A Russian source reported that Russian officials elected to delay repairing the Kerch Strait rail bridge until summer or autumn 2023 as weather conditions are too dangerous to conduct the repairs.

Logistics –
- Russia is having problems mobilizing its economy to support the war effort in Ukraine. This mobilization is complicated by the fact that Russia no longer has a market economy. Over the last two decades the government has taken control of most of the major industries. Production problems were found not the fault of inept management or a shortage of qualified workers, but the lack of key components. It made sense that this parts problem would cripple efforts to produce more guided missiles, but now it was clear that even the program to upgrade 800 1960s vintage T-62 tanks was quickly stalled because of the shortage of imported components and problems with finding any local substitutes.

Economic Impact –
- Russia enters recession as GDP falls by 4% in third quarter

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russian missile attacks overnight targeted electrical generation plants and civilian structures. Dozens of civilians reported dead. Size and scope of this latest barrage far lower than yesterday’s. Mostly southern and eastern Ukraine targeted with some directed at Kyiv as well.

Russian localized offensives on Bakhmut yesterday were repelled and Russia launched a large offensive near Avdiivka, also repelled.

Russian shelling continued to be intensive yesterday around Bakhmut, north and west of Donetsk with significant shelling exchanges near Polohy and Hulyaipole. In most of the other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Continued attacks in the Bakhmut region.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Main war effort of Russia refocusing on this region with continued ground and artillery attacks.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Kherson city was targeted by Russian artillery.
There were reports of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea overnight, with some reports ADS was active at the Dzhankoy Airbase. This base has been increasingly active recently with Russian VKS Su-25s returning to the base along with a number of weapons resupply aircraft.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks discussed above.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same, with unpredictable Russian missile attacks, which I suspect will go farther and farther apart and with fewer missiles (this could change with the resupply by Iran of ballistic missiles)

Looking at the Russian efforts to recapture the Donbas a better trend is developing. But this trend is on the hurt side because Russia doesn’t have the capability to fully execute the plan with the loss of the Kharkiv territory. Two lines of attacks are clarifying.

The first and most tactically and strategically sound are the attacks headed northwest out of the Donetsk region. The attacks are trying to exploit two major roads towards the northwest that eventually lead to the Dnipro city region. This attack could secure the southwestern corner of Ukrainian controlled Donetsk Oblast and push solidly into the Donbas.

The second is the Bakhmut zone attacks. These are much more problematical and more likely propaganda oriented (attacks primarily lead by Wagner Group mercenaries). Due to the more north-northwest orientation of the road network, this attack would have been part of the southern pincer going northward toward Izyum and Kreminna – the only problem being that Russia lost that territory and now has no supporting attacks available from the north. So even if Russia is able to capture Bakhmut (and they’ve been trying for close to four months now) they really have no strategic / tactical objects to follow on towards. Road network to the southwest towards the axis coming out of Donebas is poor and the terrain continues to favor Ukrainian defense.

At least the Donetsk axis has the potential to pivot northward around Pokrovsk and run up along the Oblast border – partially obtaining a stated Russian objective. However, that would expose the left flank of the offensive – necessitating additional forces to hold the flank while pursuing the attack further north.

Russia is in a poor position to move on the ground - Ukraine holds the best ground. Quite simply, Russia is currently incapable of mounting any kind of a complex operation as this. It lacks the necessary numbers of sufficiently trained, equipped, and motivated soldiers. It lacks the armor and tanks to press forward. It lacks the logistics tail necessary to fuel and rearm the attack. Those resources that are available will become part of a power struggle between the regular army and its competitors being the Wagner Group. This resource conflict hurt the Russian attack very early in the war, only to have it partially addressed during the second phase of the Donbas campaign – until Ukraine was able to start targeting Russian logistic centers with HIMARS. It lacks air power willingness to provide necessary direct support. And finally, Russia has continually displayed an inability to operate in a combined arms manner – especially as the mud season fully kicks in. The tend to fight along road networks – creating numerous choke points Ukraine time and again exploits.

All other sectors are digging in to stall any Ukrainian offensive actions.

This is how things appear to be shaping out on the Russian side. Not the brightest picture but the one that is current. Russia has to do something to regain the initiative and momentum. IMHO it is doomed trying.

.
Europe / NATO General –

Reuters reports citing four sources, German authorities have stepped up preparations for emergency cash deliveries in case of a blackout (or rather blackouts) to keep the economy running, as the nation braces for possible power cuts arising from the war in Ukraine. The plans include the Bundesbank hoarding extra billions to cope with a surge in demand, as well as “possible limits on withdrawals”, one of the people said. And if you think crypto investors are angry when they can’t access their digital tokens in a bankrupt exchange, just wait until you see a German whose cash has just been locked out.
Officials and banks are looking not only at origination (i.e., money-printing) but also at distribution, discussing for example priority fuel access for cash transporters, according to other sources commenting on preparations that accelerated in recent weeks after Russia throttled gas supplies.

OBSERVATION – Similar preparations occurring in many other European nations. The next several months will be critical and highly dependent one on the weather and two on the regional political/war situation.

Israel –

Israel gave NATO members, including UK, permission to deliver to Ukraine weapons systems, including fire-control and electro-optic, that include Israeli components. It also agreed to purchase ‘strategic materials’ for Ukraine’s armed forces

Iran -

Protests expanded yesterday with the anniversary of previous protests being remembered. Violence is also increasing with reports of a number of citizens and policemen were killed in a shooting in the city of “Aiza” in southwestern Iran. Videos on posted on social media show IRGC/Basji enforcers singling out women for beatings with batons and clubs.

Speaking to media outlets, the President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, said a draft resolution being prepared by the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) would be “rejected.” The resolution comes as western countries have expressed concern over the IAEA’s discovery of uranium traces at three “undeclared” sites. Eslami denounced the claims saying the resolution “lacks validity” as Iran had responded to all IAEA allegations before announcing that Iran would continue its nuclear activities within the framework of its “approved, written, and announced” nuclear program. (FO)

OBSERVATION – There is nothing currently on the table to force Iranian compliance as biden’s foreign policy towards Iran shifted from one of strong deterrence and sanctions to one of appeasement (followed merrily along by the EU).

Nice, crisp -14 here in the Redoubt.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SUMMARY – Between the COP27, G20 and B20 meetings this week, it appears that the GGR/WEF forces are laying the ground work for a relatively rapid advance on global vaccine ID’s, climate change actions and digital currencies. Watch it develop on a country level with international coordination.

Leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) have issued a joint declaration promoting a global standard on proof of vaccination for international travel and calling for the establishment of “global digital health networks” that build on existing digital COVID-19 vaccine passport schemes.
The joint statement followed the conclusion of the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia, where leaders discussed global challenges and coordinating policies in response, including to future pandemics.

“We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, under the framework of the IHR (2005), to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations,” the G20 joint declaration reads.

OBSERVATION – G20 endorsement will help move the digital proof of vaccination forward and into a common format and not 20 different formats. This will eventually be the prototype that the rest of the world will have to adapt to. Eventually, control will be taken from individual countries and centralized under the WHO.

Queen Máxima of the Netherlands, at a meeting dedicated to the digital euro in Brussels, made a “passionate plea” in favor of digital versions of fiat money. Her critics say, it is at its core a call to introduce “a social credit system based on the Chinese model.”
Financial expert Arno Wellens, is one of those critics. “Max wants to introduce programmable digital money, supposedly to help the poor. That is a nonsensical argument,” Wellens wrote.
“This central bank digital currency (CBDC) destroys our privacy. Soon you will be ruled by an app, with which the government can freeze your life at the touch of a button.”

OBSERVATION – This is what has been said all along. CBDC will be a key to controlling the masses. If you can’t buy or sell with out using it and it is programed as to what you can buy or sell, then your freedoms will be effectively cancelled out.

Wuhan virus –

Scientists from Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, compared 127 infected people who used Paxlovid to 43 others who beat the virus without the drug. They found that 14 per cent of Paxlovid users tested positive for the virus in the weeks after recovering. Meanwhile, only nine per cent tested positive again in the group that didn’t use the antiviral. The study was small and the researchers don’t feel confident that the results weren’t chance, but they aim to stand it up in a future trial involving 800 people.
The exact causes of the rebound are unknown, but doctors suspect it is because of the how the drug functions. Rather than killing the virus outright, Paxlovid stop its replication within the body. Experts theorize that, having been suppressed by Paxlovid, Covid bounces back when the drug vanishes from the body, leading to high viral levels and potent immune responses that can cause symptoms to reappear.

Notable examples of the Covid rebounds include President Joe Biden, who suffered a rebound after being infected with the virus in June and receiving Paxlovid. Two of America’s leading health officials, Dr Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), were also affected.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, honey.

More than 400 Washington State Transportation Department employees were fired for not complying with Gov. Jay Inslee’s vaccine mandate. Now Washington State Ferries announced that it is operating on alternate schedules on some routes until further notice. The main reason – lack of qualified personnel to run the ferries. Inslee’s COVID-19 state of emergency declaration from February 2020 ended on Oct. 31, but state employees are still required to be vaccinated against the virus as a condition of employment pursuant to the governor’s summer directive.

OBSERVATION – Power, always about power. Well demonstrated that the jab is useless in preventing infection or transmission of the wuhan virus, yet the tyrants cant let go of that power to control peoples lives. This shortage also impacts Washington economic elements as well as security/emergency related issues. In a disaster, communities relying on ferry service will be on their own.

Economy –

SUMMARY- More indicators of a severe recession on the horizion while efforts being made to minimize the threat via hopium. Interest rates and inflation are seen as continuing to rise over the course of the next several months.

While some investment corporations have recently suggested that we are not going into recession or at least will have a ‘soft’ landing, other economic are saying otherwise. One, the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve is the most inverted since 1981 at -70 basis points (update, overnight now at -69, still the largest since 1981). These numbers are indicative of a severe recession pending.

OBSERVATION – Continued contradictory economic messages, one the opinions of the manipulators of the economy and the other from the economy itself. See more related below.

The Federal Reserve may have to raise its benchmark interest rate much higher than it has previously projected to get inflation under control, James Bullard, who leads the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Thursday.
Bullard’s comments raised the prospect that the Fed’s rate hikes will make borrowing by consumers and businesses even costlier and further heighten the risk of recession. Wall Street traders registered their concern by sending stock market futures further into the red early Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 330 points shortly before trading began.
Bullard’s remarks followed speeches by other Fed officials in recent days that suggested they see only limited progress, at most, in their use of steadily higher rates to fight inflation.
The Fed’s key short-term interest rate “has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”

Those increases have boosted the Fed’s short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, up from nearly zero as recently as last March, to the highest level in nearly 15 years.
Bullard suggested that the rate may have to rise to a level between 5% and 7%...

OBSERVATION – This emphasis to continue big raises of the prime is driving concerns that the Fed will over tighten the money supply – making for a very big crash. Standard application of the effects of prime action is that it takes about 6 months for a rate change to fully take charge. Thus the current economic indicators reflect the rate changes 6 months ago. The Fed has over the past 6 months substantially raised the prime – and the impact of those increases are theoretically not to be seen for 6 months. Thus the Fed is operating off of old data.

More Fed news - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that it is not too unreasonable to expect a 4.5-5% unemployment rate following the final rate hike in this cycle. If accurate, this represents an additional million Americans set to lose their jobs through early next year.

OBSERVATION – Strong likelihood that this number will be a lot bigger.

New conspiracy theory in that the price of beef (as well as other meats) are being artificially forced higher in order to permit lab-grown meat industry a toe hold in the market.

OBSERVATION – More likely the GGR crowd taking advantage of already high prices from a stressed market. Beef took big hits last year from hay shortages and overall high costs from inflation for fuel and other foods. Many ranchers had to reduce their herds in order to get by. Now those reduced numbers are being felt in the supply chain.

In a report on Tuesday, GasBuddy said the “Projected average price of $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day will break record set 10 years ago.”

“The national average is projected to stand at $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day – nearly 30¢ higher than last year, and over 20¢ higher than the previous record of $3.44 set in 2012. But that won’t slow many down, with 20% more Americans planning to hit the road this year,” the report said, adding the number of people traveling over the weekend rose from 32 percent in 2021 to 38 percent.

OBSERVATION – Enjoy, because it is unlikely prices will ever go back to Before Years levels.

Speaking of oil, “Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says at a conference in London. “If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”
Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.
“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

OBSERVATION - Oil prices have been bouncing all over the place – hard to keep track unless you spend a lot of time. What this warns about is that should economic activity kick in quickly on the upside, oil production will be hard pressed to keep up with demands.

The threat of a strike during negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Corporation has motivated shippers to divert cargo from the West coast to the Gulf and East coasts. Though both sides have signed joint media releases stating there will be no strike, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka says there is still concern about the potential for a strike disrupting shipping.(FO)

OBSERVATION - First a threat of a rail strike, now the longshoremen rumbling. East coast ports are already straining from shipping diverted from the west coast due to the long wait to load/unload that has plagued the system over the past year.

And speaking of the potential rail strike, the American Chemical Council warned in a report that a rail strike could be the catalyst for a full-on economic recession in the United States. The report stated that a rail strike could cause a 1% contraction in U.S. GDP.

OBSERVATION – Trucks and barges will be totally unable to make up the lost cargo transportation and container shipping will once again clog seaports.

California will see a $25 billion deficit next year, the California Legislature’s top fiscal analyst announced Wednesday, a dramatic change after the state budgeted for a nearly $100 billion surplus this year.
If that estimate by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office holds, Gov. Gavin Newsom and state lawmakers will need to make significant cuts to balance the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

OBSERVATION – Many will say welcome to karma kalifornia. Problem is that kalifornia’s economic problems will spill over into the rest of America. For decades now kaliforina has been playing a shell game with its budgets, moving money back and forth to the point that no one really knows just how much in the hole the state is in – but it has dug itself a very deep hole.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY – After effects of the midterms still rippling out. It seems the republicans are swinging more moderate and likely not to fight democrat plans, even though they have control over the house. Senate has enough rinos not to need to repeal the filibuster rules – at least for now.

We all know by now that Pelosi is stepping down from house leadership – and may even be on the verge of retirement. Who is going to replace her as leader of the house. Sten Hoyer reportedly is not interested and in a retirement mind set. Reports swirling that she was paving the way behind the scenes for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to be her successor.

Jeffries and the “historic” nature of his presumptive upcoming role as House Minority Leader is that he is – by the Democrats’ own very convenient definition – a threat to democracy as a denier. He was very vocal about denying the results of the 2016 election and the legitimacy of Trump’s presidency.

Jeffries has also equated pro-life conservatives to a “cult” “The threat right now in this country to the American people are extreme MAGA Republicans,” the Democrat leader said. “That’s the threat. That’s the problem. That’s the crisis that we confront, extreme MAGA Republicans. Why? They are extreme on reproductive freedom.”

He wrote during the Kyle Rittenhouse trial when it became abundantly clear that Rittenhouse’s actions were in self-defense that he should be locked up with the key thrown away.

North/South Korea –

Overnight NK launched a long range ICBM capable missile. The missile was fired at 10:15 local time (02:15 GMT) from near the North Korean capital Pyongyang, military chiefs in Seoul said. It reached an altitude of 6,100km (second highest apogee to date) on a lofted trajectory and travelled 1,000km (621 miles), reaching a speed of Mach 22, South Korea’s military said.
A lofted trajectory means the missile flies much higher into space but across a shorter distance than it would if fired on a normal trajectory. But Japan’s defence minister Yasukazu Hamada said the missile had sufficient range to reach the US -
“Based on calculations taking the trajectory into account, the ballistic missile this time around could have had a range capability of 15,000 km, depending on the weight of its warhead, and if that’s the case, it means the US mainland was within its range,” he said. Standard transjectory, range would have been about 15,000 km. “

In response, SK launched fighter aircraft drills, using F35s and laser guided bombs.

OBSERVATION – The missing component is a nuclear weapon warhead small enough to be carried by such a rocket. When NK FINALLY gets around to doing its next underground test, it will likely be to test such a device.

Japan –

Japan is conducting Japanese-American military exercises in response to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile overnight.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday in Thailand on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Japan has lodged a series of diplomatic complaints over Chinese activity in its economic exclusive zone near the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********
A Dutch court has found two Russian men and one Ukrainian man guilty of shooting down the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014, but acquitted a third Russian.

Wagner financer Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to establish himself as a central figure in the pro-war ultranationalist community, likely in pursuit of ambitious political goals. Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported on November 16 that two sources close to the Kremlin stated that Prigozhin is thinking about creating a “conservative movement” that may become a political party. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin has established an information campaign of constant anti-elite rhetoric modeled after jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s social media campaign against Russian corruption, but to a very different effect. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin intends to simultaneously use the anti-elite social media campaign to cast himself as a populist figure while currying favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin by intimidating elites that may be viewed as insufficiently loyal to Putin.

As Russia on Thursday launched more airstrikes targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, the Kremlin made clear that the onset of wintry weather would not affect its invasion, now in its 267th day.
“The special military operation is continuing, it does not depend on climatic or weather conditions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Its goals must be achieved.”
Temperatures in Kyiv dropped below freezing on Thursday, with the first snow of the season falling. Snow is forecast for nine of the next 14 days, with temperatures dropping as low as –6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees F). Average monthly temperatures drop to a low of –7 degrees Celsius in January.

OBSERVATION – This is easy for Peskov to say, he’s not in the trenches, under equipped for the cold weather with mud above the ankles.

Logistics –
- The increasing use of Kh-55/59 missiles over other types in recent attacks suggest that stocks of more advanced missiles have been seriously depleted which has been widely reported before.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued yesterday targeting energy infrastructure, military installations and possibly command and control in Kyiv and other regions. These were not as intensive as with previous attacks. These were mostly Russian Kh-101, Kh-55, Kh-59 and Kalibr cruise missile variants launched in stand off strikes from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and from the Black Sea.

Fighting continues to be heaviest east of Bakhmut, with continuing Russian ground offensives, intensive shelling and missile strikes. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Bakhmut and launch localized counteroffensives.

Russian shelling was intensive near Bakhmut, Donetsk, Kreminna, Avdiivka and Polohy yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions. Russian shelling returned sporadically onto areas of Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Nikopol and overnight into the Sumy Oblast and north of Kherson.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Reports of Russia busily constructing more defensive lines, primarily along approaches to the Crimean peninsula.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in the rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian power grid have decreased since Tuesday, suggesting that supplies are beginning to run low again.

On the ground, not much change is expected IMHO but there is always a chance that Ukraine may succeed in a breakthrough and things get interesting again. Biggest chance for a break through is the Svatove – Kreminna front.

Russian will continue to beat its head against the wall in Bakhmut. Any breakthrough there will be minor as Ukraine has established a defense in depth across that section of the front and Russian/Wagner group forces are probably not positioned to exploit a breakthrough with enough forces to do anything.

Iran -

Drone that hit Israeli owned tanker according to a Western official cited by BBC, was launched from an IRGC base in the southeastern Iranian city of Chabahar.

OBSERVATION - Iran is getting pretty bold. In the past they’ve used Houthi controlled areas and other proxy locations to launch from. Openly launching from Iranian territory is pretty much in your face.

Protests continue across the country with increased violence between protestors and IRGC/Basji enforcers. The violent response by the govt is increasing the feed back loop of calls for vengeance for those martyred, driving up numbers and push back violence.

Heavy emphasis on the republican infighting ongoing in congress. The swamp rats are thinking its ok to come out of their holes. Bad enough having to fight the democrats, but these rino’s as well . . . .

Globalism / Great Reset –

One of the big things coming out of the COP27 is the renewed push for net zero carbon by 2050. Twenty eight years to eliminate the current fossil fuel based economy. However, these intellectual lightweights are totally ignorant on the vast impacts no more fossil fuels will have. Starvation on a massive scale, massive sickness and death. But remember, they want the population of the earth to be paired down to 500,000 million.

Economy –

Households increased debt during the third quarter at the fastest pace in 15 years due to hefty increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
Total debt jumped by $351 billion for the July-to-September period, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007, bringing the collective household IOU in the U.S. to a fresh record $16.5 trillion. That’s an increase of 2.2% from the previous quarter and 8.3% from a year ago.
The increase follows a $310 billion jump in the second quarter and represents a $1.27 trillion annual increase.

OBSERVATION – Massive debt grows to eventually kill economic growth as lines of credit eventually run out. While the biggest contributors to that debt load came from mortgage an unprecedented amount comes trying to maintain the essentials of living – unprecedented in modern times IRC. People putting food, medical etc on credit instead of ‘toys’ and other items.

Invasion of Illegals –

From October 22 to November 4, the ICE conducted an operation that rounded up 138 “unlawfully present noncitizens convicted of sex offenses” — that is, illegal immigrants who’d already committed sex crimes against Americans — many of whom already had orders for removal from the United States.

OBSERVATION – Must it be asked? With over 5 million illegals pouring into this country - how many more vermin like this are prowling around our neighborhoods.

A handful of Senate Republicans reportedly started talks with illegal aliens enrolled in and eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program as House and Senate Democrats, along with corporate special interest allies, hope to pass an amnesty in the lame-duck Congress.
This week, DACA illegal aliens and open borders activists descended on Washington, DC, in their efforts to lobby ten Senate Republicans to join Democrats in passing an amnesty — before the GOP takes control of the House — that would secure them green cards and, eventually, naturalized American citizenship.

OBSERVATION – Right now it is clear there are 12 Republicans willing to vote with the democrats. Schumer has already called for blanket amnesty for ALL illegals in the country. With the 12, schumer could potentially work past the filibuster limits and move an amnesty package forward to the house while in lame duck session. There are not enough republicans in the house to block it.

CW2/Domestic violence –

More examination of the “Respect for Marriage Act” shows powers given to the state/govt is focused on silencing religious opposition under the force of law and punishment. Liberals intend to redefine the right of religious expression and practice so as to exclude from the public square all of those whose sincere faith requires them to reject same-sex marriage.
With that redefinition, the liberals are saying to millions of Americans that they have no right to disagree in the public square with same-sex marriage and the state can and indeed soon will take their property via taxes and use them to support the enforcement of same-sex marriage as a political right.
That enforcement is the second element of this law commands attention. The bill includes provisions that authorize the IRS to jerk the tax exemption of any church or non-profit that opposes same-sex marriage. The bill also encourages litigation to be brought against those same institutions in the court system to enforce the right to same-sex marriage.

OBSERVATION – The Supreme Court’s Obergefell decision in 2015 made same-sex marriage legal across the nation. What we are facing here is a broad elimination of rights to silence further opposition to the LGBT / Progressive tyrants because Christian conservative views are a threat that need to be destroyed by any means necessary. Instead of our rights being guaranteed from intrusion by the govt – as outlined in the Constitution – govt becomes the provider of rights. A concept that has constantly and continually been shown to be used by tyrannical govts around the world throughout history.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitterverse meltdown continues as the twits think the end of the world has arrived. The cry who’s going to protect them from the opposing views they’ve pushed off platform over the years.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY –

We all knew this was coming. U.S. Attorney General Garland has appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith to determine if Donald Trump should be charged in the January 6th and Mar-a-Lago probes. In 2018 he was named Chief Prosecutor for the Special Court in The Hague where he investigated war crimes in Kosovo.

On the flip side, indicators that the republican house will investigate hunter biden and biden’s associations with his shady dealings. WH has already established a war room to counter republican efforts.

OBSERVATION – Of course the deck is stacked. It is a given that Trump will be charged with something and taken to court. Biden investigations OTOH have the republicans already behind since biden/demoncrats hold the home field advantage and the DoJ will not prosecute even if there is a smoking gun. Biden also has most of the media on his side as well.

The republican party in congress is seeing a growing internal civil war between the ‘moderates’ (read eGOP/Rinos) and the more conservative MAGA inclined branch. Already the eGOP have maneuvered to keep MAGA out of the senate and house leadership. These rinos have showed us their allegiance boldly with the recent votes on the disastrous “Respect for Marriage Act” - 12 Republican senators and something like 57 representatives voting for it. The 12 in the senate in a flip could help democrat bills beat the filibuster. In the House, those turncoats could flip and support democrat minority bills.

Of course the biggest target of the republican never-trumpers is Trump himself. These rinos will not stand up to the blatant abuse of power the biden DoJ is beginning to use against Trump (as well as anyone on the right – all you domestic terrorists).

Democrats in congress are already beginning to smell the blood and will do all they can to help their fellow republicans in their squabble.

Even more concerning that is bubbling in the background are the reports that McCarthy used FTX cash to defeat conservatives in 2022, as the corrupt, globalist-tied crypto exchange funded the establishment wings of both parties. The Washington Post, reported that McCarthy was using left-wing oligarch money to “sway” the GOP field in favor of his establishment agenda.

McCarthy apparently wasn’t alone in this. Documents show McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund received $2,500,000 from someone at FTX. Again, monies linked to undercutting MAGA friendly republican senate candidates and campaigns.

OBSERVATION – Republican civil war is pretty obvious but If the FTX stories are true this has reached a more sinister level. Infected with liberal, illicit money it wont matter who the republican candidate for president is – he’s already been sold out. The American people - sold out. How this civil war and FTX debacle will go has yet to be seen, but isn’t looking good.

SEE ALSO sell outs for DACA under illegals.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US B-1B bomber was redeployed on Korean peninsula for joint air drill according to South Korean military spokeman.

The American X-37B space finally landed on November 12th after a record breaking 908 days in orbit. This was the sixth orbital mission for the X-37B and it began on May 17, 2020. The previous mission was 780 days and the ones before that 718, 675, 469, and 225.

U.S. aircraft carriers USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) and USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) will exercise with aircraft carriers from France, Italy and the United Kingdom as part of a joint operation across Europe meant to show NATO interoperability, the Pentagon announced Thursday.
The two American carrier strike groups, their embarked air wings and escorts will be operating in the North Atlantic Ocean, North Sea and Mediterranean Sea along with the U.K. Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08), Italian carrier ITS Cavour (CVH 550) and the French FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91), Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters Thursday.

OBSERVATION – This is the first exercise deployment for the USS Ford, the problem plagued supercarrier.

North/South Korea –

NK’s recent rocket test involved the Hwasong-17 ICBM. The weapon is thought to be North Korea’s longest-range missile (15,000 km) , reportedly capable of striking the entire US mainland. Analysts also believe it could carry three to five nuclear warheads.

OBSERVATION - Said this before, the next big step for NK is the development of a warhead to ride on these rockets and then with that the development of a reentry capability for said warheads. These tests may have in part been to test reentry systems for an eventual warhead.

Japan –

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

Russia continues to press the war while its economy struggles.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.

RUMINT –
Indications that a Ukraine ‘maritime drone’ attacked Novorossiysk´s Sheskharis oil terminal last night. Video shows an explosion against a ship – no details on type of ship or damages.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces made minor gains east of Bakhmut the last 24hrs. Further Russian reinforcements arrived east of Bakhmut yesterday as it relocates further forces from Kherson into this region to try to break through Ukrainian defenses. This region continues to see fierce fighting.

Russian reinforcements were also reported West of Kreminna where fighting intensified in the last 24hrs.

Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were significantly less than

Ukrainian forces continue to successfully target Russian command and control, force concentrations, weapons systems, resupplies and resupply mechanisms with artillery, missiles, airstrikes and sabotage attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.
Russian occupation officials and military leadership are seemingly increasingly concerned about subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine. Based on increased evidence of more extensive defensive lines being constructed Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts as well as in Crimea itself.

Crimean front ———
Russian forces continued to conduct defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on November 18 while Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and concentration areas south of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in the rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. Russian forces have increased ‘filtration’ – an effort to identify and capture probable insurgents throughout occupied southern Ukraine.

OUTLOOK ——
Little change from previous postings. It appears that Russian is hurrying the redeployment of forces from Kherson to the eastern front. Given the history of the war so far, integration of these units into any kind of an effective fighting force in such short notice pretty much guarantees that Russia will not be able to effectively gain much, if any, territory in its renewed Donbas campaign. Loss of Kherson has also elevated fears of a Ukrainian push on Crimea. Those fears will cause Russia to commit a sizeable portion of its forces to defend against a Ukrainian offensive from either Kherson (not likely) or Zaporizhia (more likely) pushing to Crimea.

Morale of Russian soldiers is also reportedly deteriorating, as if it could get much worse. New conscripts bring serious issues with them and the onset of winter is making life on the front even more miserable. Reports of ‘second’ defensive lines – Russians shooting any soldiers retreating from the front (tactic used in WW2) as well as numerous jail’s holding those trying to get out of the battle zone.

As a result, there are few units that appear capable of bringing the fight – mainly Wagner Group mercenaries and the few remaining ‘elite’ Russian forces like their airborne units. These have been heavily attritted and to incorporate new soldiers into these units very difficult to say the least.

Poland -

Warsaw has decided to bar the entry of the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Poland for the OSCE ministerial meeting in Lodz on 1-2 Dec. Russia has responded with a furious letter to OSCE.

Israel –

Airstrikes in Syria – see below

Iran -

I’ve mentioned how the murderous response by the regime is only throwing gasoline on the protest fires. Here are some snippets of protest actions depicting that –

iran protesters set fire to ancestral home of islamic republic founder Khomeini

Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province. - An IRGC-affiliated Basij building was captured by the protestors.

Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province. - “Imam of Friday prayers, ‘Jalal Moradi’ was set on fire by the protestors”

Tehran, Tehran Province - Behesht E Zahra cemetery. Burial of “Hamid Reza Roohi” who was killed by the regime. Chanting “Whoever gets killed, a thousand more will avenge them”

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly warned on Saturday that the threat from Iran’s nuclear program is “more advanced than ever before”. “Britain is determined to work alongside our friends to counter the Iranian threat,” he said, addressing the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain

Iraq -

A senior Iranian military official visiting Baghdad this week threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups.

The US Consulate General in Erbil has warned US citizens about possible Turkish military action in northern Syria and northern Iraq, based on “open source reports”. US citizens have been asked to stay away from border areas and crowds.

OBSERVATION – Turkey is ticked at the Kurds over a recent bombing. Iran is blaming Kurds for the continued violent protests against the regime. Both countries have no qualms about territorial ‘integrity’ and have struck at Kurds in both countries. Their ability to do so without consequences shows the weakness of the current Iraqi govt – and Muslims feast upon those who show weakness.

Syria -

US Consulate General in Erbil has warned US citizens about possible Turkish military action in northern Syria
See Iraq above for more.

Israeli strikes on Saturday morning killed four Syrian soldiers in central and western districts, Syrian state media said. SOHR reported that the strikes targeted pro-Iranian groups in Homs and Hama provinces, and a Syrian air defense battery in Latakia - via @AFP

Took the day off yesterday. Will catch up today as not too eventful weekend.

Globalism / Great Reset –

“We need a single world order,” Macron told the audience at the ongoing Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok, Thailand. “Are you on the U.S. side or the China side?” Macron asked rhetorically. “Because now, progressively, a lot of people would like to see that there are two orders in this world.”
“A dynamic balance is the best way for nations to avoid being forced to choose between superpowers. Countries have to pursue inclusive, sustainable development to address inequality and instability,” he said. “You compete, all of us want to win. But you have to respect the sovereignty of the other one.”
“I am sure that the only way to have a win-win game is to cooperate and to accept that all the members of the different regions of this world, will make their life easier and better at the end of the day,” he added.

OBSERVATION- Macron is a known WEF/GGR adherent. Here he calls for a global rulership.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out that over $10 billion in arms has been sent to Ukraine, yet only $1.2 billion in funding has been allocated to the Department of Defense to replace those weapons. In fact, the CSIS report adds that moving the U.S. from peacetime arms production to wartime mobilization would take years and that weapons sent to Ukraine may take a decade to replace.

OBSERVATION – Why is this important under GGR? Just like the draining of the strategic oil reserve, this weakens our ability to respond to any direct threat. The delay in shifting to a wartime production may give China the incentive to forcefully retake Taiwan.

Biden says the US will sign-up to a UN-backed fund to pay reparations to developing countries worst-affected by climate change.
The creation of the fund was announced Saturday. It was negotiated at the United Nations’ COP27 Summit in Egypt, was originally known as a ‘loss and damage’ fund and had been blocked by previous American administrations.
The nations who’ll benefit from the funds are largely from Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the South Pacific. They say they’re set to be worst-affected by rising sea levels and other weather extremes blamed on carbon emissions created by wealthier countries.

OBSERVATION – We all recognize this as another vehicle of wealth redistribution that will eventually be reinforced by a global cabal to even a greater extent.

Die Welt, citing the German Meat Industry Association (VDF), reported this week that within the next four to six months Germany will face a meat shortage, and prices will skyrocket.
Hubert Kelliger, a VDF board member and head of group sales at meat seller Westfleisch said, “In four, five, six months we will have gaps on the shelves.”
Pork is expected to experience the worst shortages. The issues in meat supply are due to Berlin insisting on reducing the numbers of livestock by 50% to reduce global warming emissions. Experts are warning this policy will result in mass shutdown of meat-producing companies, and that will produce a 40% rise in the price of meat.

OBSERVATION – levels of starvation are fast approaching as methods of enforcing so called “green” emission controls. Germany is following Netherland’s lead by forcefully reducing herds/flocks. German markets will have to rely more heavily on imported meat, driving costs up further, not only in Germany, but other countries as well as cattle ranching has been hit in other parts of the world – like the US for example. SEE ALSO Economy below.

Economy –

The U.S. government estimates that food prices have increased by 9.5% to 10.5% this year. Cargill CEO David MacLennan predicted that food prices would decline in 2023 but that one bad crop in North or South America could send food prices higher.

OBSERVATION – I’ve been noting a lot here about the multiple threats to the US food supply. Currently the biggest ones are next year’s crops. Lack of fertilizer, questionable rain, continued high fuel prices and the expensive efforts to restore flocks and herds that have been hard hit over the past couple years are just a few of the items that can blow up and continued food inflation.

Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley predicted a prolonged shortage of legacy chips necessary for vehicle manufacturing. A constrained supply of these chips has cost Ford 1.3 million vehicles in lost production. Farley said that growth in demand from carmakers is double the growth of manufacturing capacity by chip makers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung Electronics Company have worked to fill demand from carmakers, but both companies have focused on more profitable advanced chips.

OBSERVATION – High tech is still suffering and manufacturers are slow to bring those processes home - hoping to keep overseas high profits for as long as possible. Semiconductors are necessary across a broad spectrum of products today, not just cars.
NOTE – See China below on semiconductors.

Invasion of Illegals –

Warnings of an illegal tsunami following the suspension of Title 42.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Arizona’s AG Mark Brnovich’s election integrity unit has demanded a full report of well-publicized irregularities, and what he claims is evidence of “statutory violations.” The letter, sent late Saturday by Assistant AG Jennifer Wright to the county’s top civil division attorney, Thomas Liddy, is a major escalation over widespread problems with voting tabulators and printers, which delayed the declaration of a winner in razor-thin races in the attorney general’s race and the gubernatorial race.

OBSERVATION- Will this finally be the moment the democrats are caught with their hand in the cookie jar?

China –

See GGR above.
Some analysts view China as taking an intermediate path to the capture of Taiwan now that the US midterms are over. With a split decision in the congress - with the minimal majority of republicans in the house, they think China has gained some breathing space. However, that is forecast to be short lived as Taiwan as well as Japan are working fiercely to ramp up their military preparations for a China conflict. I’ve stated that China, playing a longer game, will at first use non-lethal coercion to gain control, and progressively ramp up the pressure via blockades and if necessary, an actual attack. The risk of an attack is the risk that China will severely damage/destroy much of the coveted microchip industry of Taiwan – technology China is desperate to get their hands on. But China may not be able to wait much past the 2024 election before taking that level of action.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

RUMINT –
“Russian “milbloggers” are circulating claims that general mobilization will begin in December or January, adding that ‘it is evident that Russian authorities never fully halted mobilization efforts.’”

Logistics –
- Moscow has quietly reached an agreement with Tehran to begin manufacturing hundreds of unmanned weaponized aircraft on Russian soil, according to new intelligence.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce around Bakhmut, Soledar and northwest of Donetsk, but the poor weather is now impacting fighting.

Poor weather is also decreasing Russian shelling , now reportedly mostly more sporadic in the impacted regions yesterday. Some intensive barrages continue around Bakhmut and Svatove

Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight were far more limited and mostly in the southeast.

It is estimated that Ukraine’s electrical grid has lost nearly 50% capacity as a result of recent Russian missile/drone strikes.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line. Minor gains being noted.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to transfer some forces from the east bank of the Dnipro River to other operational areas, but still maintain a significant force presence in southern Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

Oil depot caught fire in Makiivka overnight

OUTLOOK ——
Deteriorating weather conditions are turning soil into a quagmire, negatively affecting both sides. This results in essentially foot soldier attacks, denying fast armor strikes. Not until the soils freeze will we see the potential for more maneuver warfare.

The assumption that the winter will favor Ukraine still holds.

More waves of Russian airstrikes with missiles and drones targeting energy infrastructure, military installations and weapons movements, and even the political apparatus are still possible and anticipated. However, Russia is running out of stocks and it is taking longer to accumulate the numbers of missiles/droned necessary to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defenses.

Belarus -

According to Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate, Russia is planning on conducting terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure in Belarus in order to bring Belarus deeper into the conflict, and blame NATO/Ukraine for the attack.

OBSERVATION - This rumor has been floating around out there for a while. General consensus is that the military leaders of Belarus’ army do not want to get involved in Ukraine directly.

Belarus’ Border Guard claimed that a Ukrainian serviceman “illegally crossed the border, took photos and videos of the area, and also searched for or installed something in the snow” on Nov. 19.

Russian and Belarus troops continue to conduct exercises in established training areas in central and western Belarus.

Poland -

Poland announces the acceptance of a German proposal to deploy Patriot missile batteries on its soil

Europe / NATO General –

In a publicized statement, Swedish Prosecution Authority Officials confirmed the Nord Stream Gas pipeline leaks were the result of deliberate “gross sabotage.” Saying the investigation was still ongoing, lead prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said an analysis conducted on objects recovered from the blast site had found traces of explosives.

Israel –

Head of Israeli army Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen.Aharon Haliva at INSS conference - “Iran is considering disrupting the World Cup games in Qatar. The only thing preventing them: how the Qataris will react”

Iran –

Reports of an Iranian ballistic missile attack overnight against Kurdish forces in Koysinjaq, Iraq. Air Raid Sirens have also been heard from the U.S Consulate in the City of Erbil. Headquarters of the Kurdish Democratic Party is in the City of Erbil.

Protests continued throughout Iran on Sunday, over nine weeks after Mahsa Amini was killed by Tehran “morality police.” Iranian protesters conducted demonstrations and strikes across Iran on Sunday after regime forces violently cracked down on Kurdish cities in western Iran overnight,
- Iranian security forces firing live ammunition at protesters in Javanrud.
- IRGC SOF forces went into Kurdish areas of western-northwestern Iran and raided homes, killing the occupants in the latest heavy handed attempt to put down protests that have gone on for nearly 60 days now.
- Iranian security forces open fire on protesters in the town of Piranshahr in West Azerbaijan province

OBSERVATION – Iran is focusing on the Kurdish faction of its citizenry for the brunt of its repressive attacks. This continues to set up a spiraling level of violence by the protestors. Kurds have a history of being pretty stout hearted against this action. Other than trying to misdirect other elements in Iran to support the govt against the outside ‘threat’ ie Kurdish nationalists outside Iran, attacks in Iraq are likely to have little effect on stopping the ongoing protests.

Iraq -

Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Shakhwan Abdullah: “The Iranian attacks are an unacceptable transgression and a violation of sovereignty”

Syria -

The Turkish army bombarded with rockets and artillery sites of the Pro-Assad forces forces and the SDF in several areas in the countryside of Kobane and the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.
Turkish warplanes targeted the positions of the SDF militia in the village of Zour Maghara and Jabal al-Shuyukh, east of the Euphrates River, opposite the city of Jarabulus.

OBSERVATION – Kurds facing attacks by both Turkey and Iran.

Turkey -

See Syria above.

Erdogan – “Turkish operations in northern Syria and Iraq are not limited to aerial bombardment, and we are having discussions about ground operations”

Agence France-Presse, quoting a Turkish official: two dead and 6 wounded as a result of missile strikes on the Turkish border from Syria

Central / South America General-

Brazilian federal highway police issued a bulletin indicating protestors had blocked six highways after President Jair Bolsonaro posted a cryptic video of himself driving a truck, bus, and tractor to social media. The video references the agricultural, transport, and public service industries that form Bolsonaro’s support base and has been viewed as encouraging ongoing protests by supporters. Bolsonaro has yet to concede to Lula’s victory in the elections but has largely remained out of public view and refrained from public comment.

This gets uglier – Reports that Brazilian Justice Inspector, Minister Luis Felipe Salomao. who was appointed as a minister by then-President Lula da Silva back in 2008, signed an order allowing child services to take children away from election protesters.

OBSERVATION - It doesn’t appear that these continued protests will gain much more traction. The military is staying out of the mix for now.

Black Swans -

According to NASA’s calculations, asteroid 2005 ED224 could impact the Earth on March 11, 2023. It is estimated to be 54-meters in diameter and normally, an asteroid this size would burn up or explode in the atmosphere. But ED 224 is traveling at 61,000mph and if it maintains this speed, the asteroid could penetrate the atmosphere and reach the ground.
Such an impact would create a crater 1,000 meters wide and release enough explosive energy to destroy an entire city.
If ED 224 misses in March, it is still on track to have four more potential impacts in 2028, 2029, 2030, and 2064. Though it only has a 1 in 500,000 chance of impact, ED 224 has been listed in NASA’s Sentry Earth impact monitoring database that tracks all known asteroids possessing even a slim chance of Earth collisions. To date, NASA has tracked only an estimated 40% of the larger asteroids and there have been several cases in which an undetected asteroid impacted Earth.

OBSERVATION – Over the weekend a sub-meter rock was detected hours before it entered the atmosphere above Lake Ontario. An Asteroid strike, though rare, is possible and ED 224 could carry the punch of a nuclear weapon. With all the other problems in the world, if it hit a critical area, the economic repercussions could be substantial, physical damage significant.

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