Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Tuesday announced a climate deal that will send Indonesia $20 billion over the next three-to-five years to push the country to shut down its coal plants.
The initiative is intended to help Indonesia, the world’s chief coal exporter, phase out coal production and switch to green energy in order to reach global targets for reducing carbon emissions, according to a White House fact sheet. Half of the money will be spent by countries that are part of the International Partners Group, including the U.S., Japan and Canada, while the other half will be provided by private financial institutions led by the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero to accelerate Indonesia’s green transition over the three-to-five-year period.

Indonesia will work to ensure that its power sector emissions will peak by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, bringing its net zero targets forward by ten years, according to the fact sheet. The nation will also aim to make sure that renewable energy accounts for at least 34% of all power generation by 2030.

OBSERVATION – 3-5 year transition to what source of ‘green’ energy are we talking here? Another dumpster fire in the making. Meanwhile, this action also hurts American coal producers by taking away another customer.

Biden’s climate envoy John Kerry announced on Nov. 9 that the Biden administration was partnering with the Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation to reward developing countries with “marketable carbon credits” if they reduce CO2 emissions from their power sector or make investments in green energy.

OBSERVATION – What ever the heck “marketable carbon credits” are. Biden administration refused to provide details.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday cleared meat grown in a laboratory for human consumption, marking the first time the agency has done so.

The decision means that Berkeley, California-headquartered UPSIDE Foods, formerly known as Memphis Meats, will be able to bring its “cultivated chicken” products to the market once it has been inspected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to its website, UPSIDE Foods is a food technology company founded in 2015 that aims to grow “sustainable cultured meat.” It cites investors including Bill Gates and Sir Richard Branson.
The company grows meat, poultry, and seafood by harvesting the cells from live animals and using them to grow the meat inside a cultivator. The cells are constantly nourished with an “optimized” feed that consists of “common compounds found in animal feed and human food, including amino acids, fatty acids, sugars, trace elements, salts, and vitamins.”

OBSERVATION – Something like out of science fiction. However, I’ll bet my bars that the whole process is far less efficient and way more costly than our current agricultural practices. Cattle do a pretty darn good job of converting plants into protein and without all the high tech necessary for fake meat.

Wuhan virus –

Biden is embarking on yet another battle over the COVID-19 pandemic, this time facing off with more than 60 senators who seek to end the national state of emergency over the virus.
In place since March 2020, the state of emergency grants Biden expanded powers, which he has used to push a host of policies. Tuesday night, the Senate voted 62-36 to end those emergency powers, with 13 senators who caucus with the Democrats joining all Republicans in support.

OBSERVATION – The state of emergency has given biden considerable extraconstitutional powers (that are currently being eroded away by court decisions BTW). Democrat powers in congress want some of that power back from biden..

Economy –

Turkey day is set to gobble gobble up your savings this year. A 2022 survey by the Farm Bureau shows that the average cost to feed 10 people for the holiday is up 20%.

If you have an aunt you can’t stand, now would be a good time to uninvite her to dinner next week. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

“The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – costs more than last year, at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird. That’s $1.81 per pound, up 21% from last year, due to several factors beyond general inflation,” the Farm Bureau said.

OBSERVATION - General inflation on all the food components for a traditional thanksgiving have been made worse by the ongoing bird flu epidemic that has forced another massive cull of poultry just prior to the holiday season. This is also why you can hardly find a turkey greater than 20 lbs in your local supermarket. I bought my 30+ pounder earlier this summer at lower prices. It pays to plan ahead.

Reading the tea leaves. Recent assessments from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suggest that they are expecting the much announced ‘soft landing’ for the economy created by the Fed prime rate increases and the resulting drop in the inflation rate in 2023. However, that is still a ways off and much can happen between now and then. PPI shows inflation pressures are still there and increasing as well as there being global factors that could blow this ‘soft landing’ scenario sky high. Remember too, much was said about inflation being “transitory” this time last year – how well has that worked out for us. Not being a financial guru, my gut feeling from life experience is that the big investment corporations are trying to calm fears of their investors by saying this scenario is one that can be ridden out and not to panic. We won’t know much for sure for the next several months yet – particularly now that we are through the midterm election cycle.

Oil executives and trade groups met with Biden administration officials and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) to discuss diesel stockpiles and the potential for a shortage this winter. Following the meeting, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and American Petroleum Institute trade groups released a joint statement saying that U.S. refineries are running at full capacity but that regulatory limitations and lack of pipeline connectivity are obstacles to getting diesel to the Northeast. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Huge leftist/greenie hurdle to overcome in getting new pipelines of any kind past environmental review in any short order. This is a structural defect that past environmental and govt road blocks have erected over the years and if the restrictions would be lifted still take many, many years to construct the needed pipelines. Biden et al wont clear regulatory restrictions as his view is that since he is killing fossil fuels there is no need for construction - but will pay lip service so as not to spill the beans on his goals.

Watching the oncoming train crash as the national leaders of SMART Transportation Division and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen stated at a joint press conference that they expect Congress to step in if the vote fails. A strike would involve more than 30 railroads, and the major railroads will likely throttle traffic a week ahead of the strike date.

OBSERVATION - How quickly congress will act is another question. The lame duck house may differ to the incoming republicans to deal with it. Now that the elections are past all bets are off.

Decreasing stock has driven the price of diesel up 50% this year, with gasoline seeing a 14% increase in price. Wholesale diesel traded at a record premium in October.

OBSERVATION – This is killing our economy – diesel is the life blood even more than gasoline. Personally, its killing me having to spend so much to fill up my diesel Jetta (35 mpg) at these exorbitant prices.

Leftists are very poor engineers. A study conducted by National Grid Plc. found that electrifying a typical highway gas station for passenger EVs would require as much power as a professional sports stadium. The study also found the projected power needs for a Truckstop servicing electric Semi trucks would be the same as a small town. (FO)

OBSERVATION - It is virtually impossible to construct enough solar/wind generators to replace the fossil fuel plants to necessary to produce this much energy. Secondly, transmission lines would need a significant upgrade to handle the increased current demands.

Invasion of Illegals –

Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Wednesday called for all “11 million” or “however many” illegal aliens there are in the US to be given amnesty because the American population “is not reproducing on its own at the same level that it used to.”

Previously, democrats bleated - “Proponents of this white nationalist, far-right conspiracy theory believe that a complicit or cooperative class of elites are advancing a plot designed to undermine the political power and culture of white Americans,” Schumer wrote in a letter for Fox News CEO Rupert Murdoch. “For years, these types of beliefs have existed at the fringes of American life. However, this pernicious theory, which has no basis in fact, has been injected into the mainstream thanks in large part to a dangerous level of amplification by your network and its anchors.”

OBSERVATION – Is the “replacement” conspiracy theory coming to pass? Clearly Schumer et al view these illegals as probable democrat voters – to maintain their power in govt. But if democrats didn’t have double standards, they’d have no standards at all. If this gets pushed, hopefully the new republican house will stop it – but then that isn’t even guaranteed any more.

Biden / Harris watch –

Recalibrating previous thoughts on democrats removing/replacing Biden and Harris. Now McCarthy is next in the succession to the presidency, so the deep state handlers most likely have to recalibrate.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Appropriate under cancel culture below – but has bigger play in the growing CW2 scenario developing here in the US. That being what’s called “stochastic terrorism” by the left. The article linked below does a far better job of describing this tactic than I can in this space.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_lefts_newest_stealth_attack_on_free_speech.html

The ultimate goal is presented - “In other words, your opinions are terrorist threats that, ideally, should lead you to a long stint in a federal prison, while my opinions (leftist democrats), which may be considerably more violent and imminent than yours, are nevertheless the beneficiary of First Amendment protections.”

We are seeing the move from attempted marginalization of opposing views to criminalization very quickly. My concerns as the now fast approaching 2024 presidential election comes down is to what extent biden et al will further weaponize the alphabet agencies (lead by DoJ and FBI) against citizens? With Trump officially in the race I fully expect to see a lot more of this.

Double file also under Cancel Culture but the Senate advancing the “Respect for Marriage Act” on Wednesday poses a threat to traditional America values and beliefs to the extent that criminal/civil assaults on organizations like churches can and likely will occur. Among the many threats –

1. The amendment offers no such protection for private businesses, such as wedding vendors, nor for individuals, and would create a “right to private action” for anyone who feels they were discriminated against.

2. The bill “equates belief in natural marriage with racism” and subjects adoption agencies, women’s shelters, and other nonprofits that serve their communities to further risk of lawsuits. And the right of private action in the bill “supercharges” the danger of lengthy, expensive lawsuits

3. There are no protections for religious based opinions or actions.

Bill was already passed by the House and was sidelined in the senate until after the elections. 12 Republicans voted with Democrats on Wednesday, passing the filibuster standard with 62 yes votes.

OBSERVATION – Courts will be filled with extensive lawsuits by LGBT et al groups, who’s sole purpose will be to silence conservative Christian viewpoints.

On another CW2/Domestic violence front, Target said its stores are getting looted at a massive scale. The damage to the bottom line has amounted to $400 million so far this year, the company said on a call with reporters on Wednesday. The company is not the only retailer to point to a rise in theft recently. A spokesman for CVS said earlier this year that it has experienced a 300 percent increase in theft. Rite Aid said in October it suffered $5 million in losses due to theft in NYC in the most recent quarter alone. Home Depot said it has been locking up more products during the past 12 months in an attempt to stem theft.

OBSERVATION – All fallout from the deliberate (and soros sponsored) efforts to neuter the police and prosecution of criminals. Purpose is to continue to spread panic and concerns in the population to eventually condition them to accept the ‘solution’ with open arms. Such levels of theft are also driving up prices as stores try to recoup their losses.
On a personal basis – A few months back visited family in Kalifornia. The vast majority of items at the local WalMart were locked up and it took a while to find an employee to unlock for us to get an iterm (personnel shortages). Here in the Redoubt very little is locked up – only guns/ammo and electronics.

An FBI official will be deposed in a lawsuit over alleged collusion between the Biden administration and social-media companies to censor speech on topics ranging from Hunter Biden’s laptop to Covid-19, a judge ruled Monday.
The ruling comes in response to a lawsuit by Missouri attorney general Eric Schmitt and Louisiana attorney general Jeff Landry accusing the federal government of working “hand-in-hand with social media companies to censor freedom of speech on their platforms.” The lawsuit has grown to include 67 defendants, including top officials at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the White House, and others.
Last month, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana granted the two states’ request for depositions from several top-ranking governmental officials.

OBSERVATION – More of the weaponization of FBI against citizens rights and blatant, unconstitutional interference in elections.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Wednesday won re-election as Senate GOP leader, fending off a challenge from Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and setting himself up to become the longest-serving party leader in the history of the Senate. McConnell won a vote that broke 37-10 and saw one senator abstain, according to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex.

OBSERVATION – Status quo in the senate for republicans. This could increase the chance of internal fighting as the next session of congress moves forward. The 12 republicans who supported the “Respect for Marriage Act” on Wednesday show a great deal of softness in a Senate that the republicans are actually poised to lose an additional seat in. The 50+ who voted for the same act in the house the same – willing to sell out the the democrats.

China –

Chinese aircraft and naval vessels continue to enter the Taiwan Strait, crossing into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, its government announced early Wednesday morning. Activity has remained high following pelsoi’s visit a few months ago.

OBSERVATION – Typical tactic to wear down the readiness of an opponent. However, Taiwan is recognizing patterns that suggest Chinese plans of attack by air and sea, and structuring its defense to counter them. While I don’t see direct conflict as being imminent, I do believe there is an increasing chance of something significant happening before the 2024 elections.

North/South Korea –

Reports now via @YonhapNews that a NK short-range ballistic missile was launched from the Wonsan region.

Also noting more rumors about an impending nuke test. NK has had that capability for many months now having constructed a new adit at the underground test site and upgrading surface facilities. It seems Kim is taking his time and will likely run a new test, but timeline wise its anyone’s guess at this time.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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Trial of the MH17 shoot down culprits is winding down, not looking good for Russian PR. Court statement - “The court has ascertained that the Russian Federation coordinated military actions in the DPR, financed and provided weapons to the militants, but also undertook military actions on its own. Russia was in full control of the DPR”

Kerch Bridge update –
A Russian source reported that Russian officials elected to delay repairing the Kerch Strait rail bridge until summer or autumn 2023 as weather conditions are too dangerous to conduct the repairs.

Logistics –
- Russia is having problems mobilizing its economy to support the war effort in Ukraine. This mobilization is complicated by the fact that Russia no longer has a market economy. Over the last two decades the government has taken control of most of the major industries. Production problems were found not the fault of inept management or a shortage of qualified workers, but the lack of key components. It made sense that this parts problem would cripple efforts to produce more guided missiles, but now it was clear that even the program to upgrade 800 1960s vintage T-62 tanks was quickly stalled because of the shortage of imported components and problems with finding any local substitutes.

Economic Impact –
- Russia enters recession as GDP falls by 4% in third quarter

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russian missile attacks overnight targeted electrical generation plants and civilian structures. Dozens of civilians reported dead. Size and scope of this latest barrage far lower than yesterday’s. Mostly southern and eastern Ukraine targeted with some directed at Kyiv as well.

Russian localized offensives on Bakhmut yesterday were repelled and Russia launched a large offensive near Avdiivka, also repelled.

Russian shelling continued to be intensive yesterday around Bakhmut, north and west of Donetsk with significant shelling exchanges near Polohy and Hulyaipole. In most of the other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Continued attacks in the Bakhmut region.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Main war effort of Russia refocusing on this region with continued ground and artillery attacks.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Kherson city was targeted by Russian artillery.
There were reports of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea overnight, with some reports ADS was active at the Dzhankoy Airbase. This base has been increasingly active recently with Russian VKS Su-25s returning to the base along with a number of weapons resupply aircraft.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks discussed above.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same, with unpredictable Russian missile attacks, which I suspect will go farther and farther apart and with fewer missiles (this could change with the resupply by Iran of ballistic missiles)

Looking at the Russian efforts to recapture the Donbas a better trend is developing. But this trend is on the hurt side because Russia doesn’t have the capability to fully execute the plan with the loss of the Kharkiv territory. Two lines of attacks are clarifying.

The first and most tactically and strategically sound are the attacks headed northwest out of the Donetsk region. The attacks are trying to exploit two major roads towards the northwest that eventually lead to the Dnipro city region. This attack could secure the southwestern corner of Ukrainian controlled Donetsk Oblast and push solidly into the Donbas.

The second is the Bakhmut zone attacks. These are much more problematical and more likely propaganda oriented (attacks primarily lead by Wagner Group mercenaries). Due to the more north-northwest orientation of the road network, this attack would have been part of the southern pincer going northward toward Izyum and Kreminna – the only problem being that Russia lost that territory and now has no supporting attacks available from the north. So even if Russia is able to capture Bakhmut (and they’ve been trying for close to four months now) they really have no strategic / tactical objects to follow on towards. Road network to the southwest towards the axis coming out of Donebas is poor and the terrain continues to favor Ukrainian defense.

At least the Donetsk axis has the potential to pivot northward around Pokrovsk and run up along the Oblast border – partially obtaining a stated Russian objective. However, that would expose the left flank of the offensive – necessitating additional forces to hold the flank while pursuing the attack further north.

Russia is in a poor position to move on the ground - Ukraine holds the best ground. Quite simply, Russia is currently incapable of mounting any kind of a complex operation as this. It lacks the necessary numbers of sufficiently trained, equipped, and motivated soldiers. It lacks the armor and tanks to press forward. It lacks the logistics tail necessary to fuel and rearm the attack. Those resources that are available will become part of a power struggle between the regular army and its competitors being the Wagner Group. This resource conflict hurt the Russian attack very early in the war, only to have it partially addressed during the second phase of the Donbas campaign – until Ukraine was able to start targeting Russian logistic centers with HIMARS. It lacks air power willingness to provide necessary direct support. And finally, Russia has continually displayed an inability to operate in a combined arms manner – especially as the mud season fully kicks in. The tend to fight along road networks – creating numerous choke points Ukraine time and again exploits.

All other sectors are digging in to stall any Ukrainian offensive actions.

This is how things appear to be shaping out on the Russian side. Not the brightest picture but the one that is current. Russia has to do something to regain the initiative and momentum. IMHO it is doomed trying.

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Europe / NATO General –

Reuters reports citing four sources, German authorities have stepped up preparations for emergency cash deliveries in case of a blackout (or rather blackouts) to keep the economy running, as the nation braces for possible power cuts arising from the war in Ukraine. The plans include the Bundesbank hoarding extra billions to cope with a surge in demand, as well as “possible limits on withdrawals”, one of the people said. And if you think crypto investors are angry when they can’t access their digital tokens in a bankrupt exchange, just wait until you see a German whose cash has just been locked out.
Officials and banks are looking not only at origination (i.e., money-printing) but also at distribution, discussing for example priority fuel access for cash transporters, according to other sources commenting on preparations that accelerated in recent weeks after Russia throttled gas supplies.

OBSERVATION – Similar preparations occurring in many other European nations. The next several months will be critical and highly dependent one on the weather and two on the regional political/war situation.

Israel –

Israel gave NATO members, including UK, permission to deliver to Ukraine weapons systems, including fire-control and electro-optic, that include Israeli components. It also agreed to purchase ‘strategic materials’ for Ukraine’s armed forces

Iran -

Protests expanded yesterday with the anniversary of previous protests being remembered. Violence is also increasing with reports of a number of citizens and policemen were killed in a shooting in the city of “Aiza” in southwestern Iran. Videos on posted on social media show IRGC/Basji enforcers singling out women for beatings with batons and clubs.

Speaking to media outlets, the President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, said a draft resolution being prepared by the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) would be “rejected.” The resolution comes as western countries have expressed concern over the IAEA’s discovery of uranium traces at three “undeclared” sites. Eslami denounced the claims saying the resolution “lacks validity” as Iran had responded to all IAEA allegations before announcing that Iran would continue its nuclear activities within the framework of its “approved, written, and announced” nuclear program. (FO)

OBSERVATION – There is nothing currently on the table to force Iranian compliance as biden’s foreign policy towards Iran shifted from one of strong deterrence and sanctions to one of appeasement (followed merrily along by the EU).

Nice, crisp -14 here in the Redoubt.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SUMMARY – Between the COP27, G20 and B20 meetings this week, it appears that the GGR/WEF forces are laying the ground work for a relatively rapid advance on global vaccine ID’s, climate change actions and digital currencies. Watch it develop on a country level with international coordination.

Leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) have issued a joint declaration promoting a global standard on proof of vaccination for international travel and calling for the establishment of “global digital health networks” that build on existing digital COVID-19 vaccine passport schemes.
The joint statement followed the conclusion of the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia, where leaders discussed global challenges and coordinating policies in response, including to future pandemics.

“We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, under the framework of the IHR (2005), to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations,” the G20 joint declaration reads.

OBSERVATION – G20 endorsement will help move the digital proof of vaccination forward and into a common format and not 20 different formats. This will eventually be the prototype that the rest of the world will have to adapt to. Eventually, control will be taken from individual countries and centralized under the WHO.

Queen Máxima of the Netherlands, at a meeting dedicated to the digital euro in Brussels, made a “passionate plea” in favor of digital versions of fiat money. Her critics say, it is at its core a call to introduce “a social credit system based on the Chinese model.”
Financial expert Arno Wellens, is one of those critics. “Max wants to introduce programmable digital money, supposedly to help the poor. That is a nonsensical argument,” Wellens wrote.
“This central bank digital currency (CBDC) destroys our privacy. Soon you will be ruled by an app, with which the government can freeze your life at the touch of a button.”

OBSERVATION – This is what has been said all along. CBDC will be a key to controlling the masses. If you can’t buy or sell with out using it and it is programed as to what you can buy or sell, then your freedoms will be effectively cancelled out.

Wuhan virus –

Scientists from Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, compared 127 infected people who used Paxlovid to 43 others who beat the virus without the drug. They found that 14 per cent of Paxlovid users tested positive for the virus in the weeks after recovering. Meanwhile, only nine per cent tested positive again in the group that didn’t use the antiviral. The study was small and the researchers don’t feel confident that the results weren’t chance, but they aim to stand it up in a future trial involving 800 people.
The exact causes of the rebound are unknown, but doctors suspect it is because of the how the drug functions. Rather than killing the virus outright, Paxlovid stop its replication within the body. Experts theorize that, having been suppressed by Paxlovid, Covid bounces back when the drug vanishes from the body, leading to high viral levels and potent immune responses that can cause symptoms to reappear.

Notable examples of the Covid rebounds include President Joe Biden, who suffered a rebound after being infected with the virus in June and receiving Paxlovid. Two of America’s leading health officials, Dr Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), were also affected.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, honey.

More than 400 Washington State Transportation Department employees were fired for not complying with Gov. Jay Inslee’s vaccine mandate. Now Washington State Ferries announced that it is operating on alternate schedules on some routes until further notice. The main reason – lack of qualified personnel to run the ferries. Inslee’s COVID-19 state of emergency declaration from February 2020 ended on Oct. 31, but state employees are still required to be vaccinated against the virus as a condition of employment pursuant to the governor’s summer directive.

OBSERVATION – Power, always about power. Well demonstrated that the jab is useless in preventing infection or transmission of the wuhan virus, yet the tyrants cant let go of that power to control peoples lives. This shortage also impacts Washington economic elements as well as security/emergency related issues. In a disaster, communities relying on ferry service will be on their own.

Economy –

SUMMARY- More indicators of a severe recession on the horizion while efforts being made to minimize the threat via hopium. Interest rates and inflation are seen as continuing to rise over the course of the next several months.

While some investment corporations have recently suggested that we are not going into recession or at least will have a ‘soft’ landing, other economic are saying otherwise. One, the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve is the most inverted since 1981 at -70 basis points (update, overnight now at -69, still the largest since 1981). These numbers are indicative of a severe recession pending.

OBSERVATION – Continued contradictory economic messages, one the opinions of the manipulators of the economy and the other from the economy itself. See more related below.

The Federal Reserve may have to raise its benchmark interest rate much higher than it has previously projected to get inflation under control, James Bullard, who leads the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Thursday.
Bullard’s comments raised the prospect that the Fed’s rate hikes will make borrowing by consumers and businesses even costlier and further heighten the risk of recession. Wall Street traders registered their concern by sending stock market futures further into the red early Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 330 points shortly before trading began.
Bullard’s remarks followed speeches by other Fed officials in recent days that suggested they see only limited progress, at most, in their use of steadily higher rates to fight inflation.
The Fed’s key short-term interest rate “has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”

Those increases have boosted the Fed’s short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, up from nearly zero as recently as last March, to the highest level in nearly 15 years.
Bullard suggested that the rate may have to rise to a level between 5% and 7%...

OBSERVATION – This emphasis to continue big raises of the prime is driving concerns that the Fed will over tighten the money supply – making for a very big crash. Standard application of the effects of prime action is that it takes about 6 months for a rate change to fully take charge. Thus the current economic indicators reflect the rate changes 6 months ago. The Fed has over the past 6 months substantially raised the prime – and the impact of those increases are theoretically not to be seen for 6 months. Thus the Fed is operating off of old data.

More Fed news - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that it is not too unreasonable to expect a 4.5-5% unemployment rate following the final rate hike in this cycle. If accurate, this represents an additional million Americans set to lose their jobs through early next year.

OBSERVATION – Strong likelihood that this number will be a lot bigger.

New conspiracy theory in that the price of beef (as well as other meats) are being artificially forced higher in order to permit lab-grown meat industry a toe hold in the market.

OBSERVATION – More likely the GGR crowd taking advantage of already high prices from a stressed market. Beef took big hits last year from hay shortages and overall high costs from inflation for fuel and other foods. Many ranchers had to reduce their herds in order to get by. Now those reduced numbers are being felt in the supply chain.

In a report on Tuesday, GasBuddy said the “Projected average price of $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day will break record set 10 years ago.”

“The national average is projected to stand at $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day – nearly 30¢ higher than last year, and over 20¢ higher than the previous record of $3.44 set in 2012. But that won’t slow many down, with 20% more Americans planning to hit the road this year,” the report said, adding the number of people traveling over the weekend rose from 32 percent in 2021 to 38 percent.

OBSERVATION – Enjoy, because it is unlikely prices will ever go back to Before Years levels.

Speaking of oil, “Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says at a conference in London. “If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”
Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.
“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

OBSERVATION - Oil prices have been bouncing all over the place – hard to keep track unless you spend a lot of time. What this warns about is that should economic activity kick in quickly on the upside, oil production will be hard pressed to keep up with demands.

The threat of a strike during negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Corporation has motivated shippers to divert cargo from the West coast to the Gulf and East coasts. Though both sides have signed joint media releases stating there will be no strike, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka says there is still concern about the potential for a strike disrupting shipping.(FO)

OBSERVATION - First a threat of a rail strike, now the longshoremen rumbling. East coast ports are already straining from shipping diverted from the west coast due to the long wait to load/unload that has plagued the system over the past year.

And speaking of the potential rail strike, the American Chemical Council warned in a report that a rail strike could be the catalyst for a full-on economic recession in the United States. The report stated that a rail strike could cause a 1% contraction in U.S. GDP.

OBSERVATION – Trucks and barges will be totally unable to make up the lost cargo transportation and container shipping will once again clog seaports.

California will see a $25 billion deficit next year, the California Legislature’s top fiscal analyst announced Wednesday, a dramatic change after the state budgeted for a nearly $100 billion surplus this year.
If that estimate by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office holds, Gov. Gavin Newsom and state lawmakers will need to make significant cuts to balance the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

OBSERVATION – Many will say welcome to karma kalifornia. Problem is that kalifornia’s economic problems will spill over into the rest of America. For decades now kaliforina has been playing a shell game with its budgets, moving money back and forth to the point that no one really knows just how much in the hole the state is in – but it has dug itself a very deep hole.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY – After effects of the midterms still rippling out. It seems the republicans are swinging more moderate and likely not to fight democrat plans, even though they have control over the house. Senate has enough rinos not to need to repeal the filibuster rules – at least for now.

We all know by now that Pelosi is stepping down from house leadership – and may even be on the verge of retirement. Who is going to replace her as leader of the house. Sten Hoyer reportedly is not interested and in a retirement mind set. Reports swirling that she was paving the way behind the scenes for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to be her successor.

Jeffries and the “historic” nature of his presumptive upcoming role as House Minority Leader is that he is – by the Democrats’ own very convenient definition – a threat to democracy as a denier. He was very vocal about denying the results of the 2016 election and the legitimacy of Trump’s presidency.

Jeffries has also equated pro-life conservatives to a “cult” “The threat right now in this country to the American people are extreme MAGA Republicans,” the Democrat leader said. “That’s the threat. That’s the problem. That’s the crisis that we confront, extreme MAGA Republicans. Why? They are extreme on reproductive freedom.”

He wrote during the Kyle Rittenhouse trial when it became abundantly clear that Rittenhouse’s actions were in self-defense that he should be locked up with the key thrown away.

North/South Korea –

Overnight NK launched a long range ICBM capable missile. The missile was fired at 10:15 local time (02:15 GMT) from near the North Korean capital Pyongyang, military chiefs in Seoul said. It reached an altitude of 6,100km (second highest apogee to date) on a lofted trajectory and travelled 1,000km (621 miles), reaching a speed of Mach 22, South Korea’s military said.
A lofted trajectory means the missile flies much higher into space but across a shorter distance than it would if fired on a normal trajectory. But Japan’s defence minister Yasukazu Hamada said the missile had sufficient range to reach the US -
“Based on calculations taking the trajectory into account, the ballistic missile this time around could have had a range capability of 15,000 km, depending on the weight of its warhead, and if that’s the case, it means the US mainland was within its range,” he said. Standard transjectory, range would have been about 15,000 km. “

In response, SK launched fighter aircraft drills, using F35s and laser guided bombs.

OBSERVATION – The missing component is a nuclear weapon warhead small enough to be carried by such a rocket. When NK FINALLY gets around to doing its next underground test, it will likely be to test such a device.

Japan –

Japan is conducting Japanese-American military exercises in response to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile overnight.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday in Thailand on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Japan has lodged a series of diplomatic complaints over Chinese activity in its economic exclusive zone near the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

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A Dutch court has found two Russian men and one Ukrainian man guilty of shooting down the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014, but acquitted a third Russian.

Wagner financer Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to establish himself as a central figure in the pro-war ultranationalist community, likely in pursuit of ambitious political goals. Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported on November 16 that two sources close to the Kremlin stated that Prigozhin is thinking about creating a “conservative movement” that may become a political party. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin has established an information campaign of constant anti-elite rhetoric modeled after jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s social media campaign against Russian corruption, but to a very different effect. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin intends to simultaneously use the anti-elite social media campaign to cast himself as a populist figure while currying favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin by intimidating elites that may be viewed as insufficiently loyal to Putin.

As Russia on Thursday launched more airstrikes targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, the Kremlin made clear that the onset of wintry weather would not affect its invasion, now in its 267th day.
“The special military operation is continuing, it does not depend on climatic or weather conditions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Its goals must be achieved.”
Temperatures in Kyiv dropped below freezing on Thursday, with the first snow of the season falling. Snow is forecast for nine of the next 14 days, with temperatures dropping as low as –6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees F). Average monthly temperatures drop to a low of –7 degrees Celsius in January.

OBSERVATION – This is easy for Peskov to say, he’s not in the trenches, under equipped for the cold weather with mud above the ankles.

Logistics –
- The increasing use of Kh-55/59 missiles over other types in recent attacks suggest that stocks of more advanced missiles have been seriously depleted which has been widely reported before.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued yesterday targeting energy infrastructure, military installations and possibly command and control in Kyiv and other regions. These were not as intensive as with previous attacks. These were mostly Russian Kh-101, Kh-55, Kh-59 and Kalibr cruise missile variants launched in stand off strikes from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and from the Black Sea.

Fighting continues to be heaviest east of Bakhmut, with continuing Russian ground offensives, intensive shelling and missile strikes. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Bakhmut and launch localized counteroffensives.

Russian shelling was intensive near Bakhmut, Donetsk, Kreminna, Avdiivka and Polohy yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions. Russian shelling returned sporadically onto areas of Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Nikopol and overnight into the Sumy Oblast and north of Kherson.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Reports of Russia busily constructing more defensive lines, primarily along approaches to the Crimean peninsula.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in the rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian power grid have decreased since Tuesday, suggesting that supplies are beginning to run low again.

On the ground, not much change is expected IMHO but there is always a chance that Ukraine may succeed in a breakthrough and things get interesting again. Biggest chance for a break through is the Svatove – Kreminna front.

Russian will continue to beat its head against the wall in Bakhmut. Any breakthrough there will be minor as Ukraine has established a defense in depth across that section of the front and Russian/Wagner group forces are probably not positioned to exploit a breakthrough with enough forces to do anything.

Iran -

Drone that hit Israeli owned tanker according to a Western official cited by BBC, was launched from an IRGC base in the southeastern Iranian city of Chabahar.

OBSERVATION - Iran is getting pretty bold. In the past they’ve used Houthi controlled areas and other proxy locations to launch from. Openly launching from Iranian territory is pretty much in your face.

Protests continue across the country with increased violence between protestors and IRGC/Basji enforcers. The violent response by the govt is increasing the feed back loop of calls for vengeance for those martyred, driving up numbers and push back violence.