Replies

Nice, crisp -14 here in the Redoubt.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SUMMARY – Between the COP27, G20 and B20 meetings this week, it appears that the GGR/WEF forces are laying the ground work for a relatively rapid advance on global vaccine ID’s, climate change actions and digital currencies. Watch it develop on a country level with international coordination.

Leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) have issued a joint declaration promoting a global standard on proof of vaccination for international travel and calling for the establishment of “global digital health networks” that build on existing digital COVID-19 vaccine passport schemes.
The joint statement followed the conclusion of the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia, where leaders discussed global challenges and coordinating policies in response, including to future pandemics.

“We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, under the framework of the IHR (2005), to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations,” the G20 joint declaration reads.

OBSERVATION – G20 endorsement will help move the digital proof of vaccination forward and into a common format and not 20 different formats. This will eventually be the prototype that the rest of the world will have to adapt to. Eventually, control will be taken from individual countries and centralized under the WHO.

Queen Máxima of the Netherlands, at a meeting dedicated to the digital euro in Brussels, made a “passionate plea” in favor of digital versions of fiat money. Her critics say, it is at its core a call to introduce “a social credit system based on the Chinese model.”
Financial expert Arno Wellens, is one of those critics. “Max wants to introduce programmable digital money, supposedly to help the poor. That is a nonsensical argument,” Wellens wrote.
“This central bank digital currency (CBDC) destroys our privacy. Soon you will be ruled by an app, with which the government can freeze your life at the touch of a button.”

OBSERVATION – This is what has been said all along. CBDC will be a key to controlling the masses. If you can’t buy or sell with out using it and it is programed as to what you can buy or sell, then your freedoms will be effectively cancelled out.

Wuhan virus –

Scientists from Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, compared 127 infected people who used Paxlovid to 43 others who beat the virus without the drug. They found that 14 per cent of Paxlovid users tested positive for the virus in the weeks after recovering. Meanwhile, only nine per cent tested positive again in the group that didn’t use the antiviral. The study was small and the researchers don’t feel confident that the results weren’t chance, but they aim to stand it up in a future trial involving 800 people.
The exact causes of the rebound are unknown, but doctors suspect it is because of the how the drug functions. Rather than killing the virus outright, Paxlovid stop its replication within the body. Experts theorize that, having been suppressed by Paxlovid, Covid bounces back when the drug vanishes from the body, leading to high viral levels and potent immune responses that can cause symptoms to reappear.

Notable examples of the Covid rebounds include President Joe Biden, who suffered a rebound after being infected with the virus in June and receiving Paxlovid. Two of America’s leading health officials, Dr Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), were also affected.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, honey.

More than 400 Washington State Transportation Department employees were fired for not complying with Gov. Jay Inslee’s vaccine mandate. Now Washington State Ferries announced that it is operating on alternate schedules on some routes until further notice. The main reason – lack of qualified personnel to run the ferries. Inslee’s COVID-19 state of emergency declaration from February 2020 ended on Oct. 31, but state employees are still required to be vaccinated against the virus as a condition of employment pursuant to the governor’s summer directive.

OBSERVATION – Power, always about power. Well demonstrated that the jab is useless in preventing infection or transmission of the wuhan virus, yet the tyrants cant let go of that power to control peoples lives. This shortage also impacts Washington economic elements as well as security/emergency related issues. In a disaster, communities relying on ferry service will be on their own.

Economy –

SUMMARY- More indicators of a severe recession on the horizion while efforts being made to minimize the threat via hopium. Interest rates and inflation are seen as continuing to rise over the course of the next several months.

While some investment corporations have recently suggested that we are not going into recession or at least will have a ‘soft’ landing, other economic are saying otherwise. One, the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve is the most inverted since 1981 at -70 basis points (update, overnight now at -69, still the largest since 1981). These numbers are indicative of a severe recession pending.

OBSERVATION – Continued contradictory economic messages, one the opinions of the manipulators of the economy and the other from the economy itself. See more related below.

The Federal Reserve may have to raise its benchmark interest rate much higher than it has previously projected to get inflation under control, James Bullard, who leads the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Thursday.
Bullard’s comments raised the prospect that the Fed’s rate hikes will make borrowing by consumers and businesses even costlier and further heighten the risk of recession. Wall Street traders registered their concern by sending stock market futures further into the red early Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 330 points shortly before trading began.
Bullard’s remarks followed speeches by other Fed officials in recent days that suggested they see only limited progress, at most, in their use of steadily higher rates to fight inflation.
The Fed’s key short-term interest rate “has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”

Those increases have boosted the Fed’s short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, up from nearly zero as recently as last March, to the highest level in nearly 15 years.
Bullard suggested that the rate may have to rise to a level between 5% and 7%...

OBSERVATION – This emphasis to continue big raises of the prime is driving concerns that the Fed will over tighten the money supply – making for a very big crash. Standard application of the effects of prime action is that it takes about 6 months for a rate change to fully take charge. Thus the current economic indicators reflect the rate changes 6 months ago. The Fed has over the past 6 months substantially raised the prime – and the impact of those increases are theoretically not to be seen for 6 months. Thus the Fed is operating off of old data.

More Fed news - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that it is not too unreasonable to expect a 4.5-5% unemployment rate following the final rate hike in this cycle. If accurate, this represents an additional million Americans set to lose their jobs through early next year.

OBSERVATION – Strong likelihood that this number will be a lot bigger.

New conspiracy theory in that the price of beef (as well as other meats) are being artificially forced higher in order to permit lab-grown meat industry a toe hold in the market.

OBSERVATION – More likely the GGR crowd taking advantage of already high prices from a stressed market. Beef took big hits last year from hay shortages and overall high costs from inflation for fuel and other foods. Many ranchers had to reduce their herds in order to get by. Now those reduced numbers are being felt in the supply chain.

In a report on Tuesday, GasBuddy said the “Projected average price of $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day will break record set 10 years ago.”

“The national average is projected to stand at $3.68 on Thanksgiving Day – nearly 30¢ higher than last year, and over 20¢ higher than the previous record of $3.44 set in 2012. But that won’t slow many down, with 20% more Americans planning to hit the road this year,” the report said, adding the number of people traveling over the weekend rose from 32 percent in 2021 to 38 percent.

OBSERVATION – Enjoy, because it is unlikely prices will ever go back to Before Years levels.

Speaking of oil, “Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says at a conference in London. “If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”
Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.
“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

OBSERVATION - Oil prices have been bouncing all over the place – hard to keep track unless you spend a lot of time. What this warns about is that should economic activity kick in quickly on the upside, oil production will be hard pressed to keep up with demands.

The threat of a strike during negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Corporation has motivated shippers to divert cargo from the West coast to the Gulf and East coasts. Though both sides have signed joint media releases stating there will be no strike, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka says there is still concern about the potential for a strike disrupting shipping.(FO)

OBSERVATION - First a threat of a rail strike, now the longshoremen rumbling. East coast ports are already straining from shipping diverted from the west coast due to the long wait to load/unload that has plagued the system over the past year.

And speaking of the potential rail strike, the American Chemical Council warned in a report that a rail strike could be the catalyst for a full-on economic recession in the United States. The report stated that a rail strike could cause a 1% contraction in U.S. GDP.

OBSERVATION – Trucks and barges will be totally unable to make up the lost cargo transportation and container shipping will once again clog seaports.

California will see a $25 billion deficit next year, the California Legislature’s top fiscal analyst announced Wednesday, a dramatic change after the state budgeted for a nearly $100 billion surplus this year.
If that estimate by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office holds, Gov. Gavin Newsom and state lawmakers will need to make significant cuts to balance the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

OBSERVATION – Many will say welcome to karma kalifornia. Problem is that kalifornia’s economic problems will spill over into the rest of America. For decades now kaliforina has been playing a shell game with its budgets, moving money back and forth to the point that no one really knows just how much in the hole the state is in – but it has dug itself a very deep hole.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY – After effects of the midterms still rippling out. It seems the republicans are swinging more moderate and likely not to fight democrat plans, even though they have control over the house. Senate has enough rinos not to need to repeal the filibuster rules – at least for now.

We all know by now that Pelosi is stepping down from house leadership – and may even be on the verge of retirement. Who is going to replace her as leader of the house. Sten Hoyer reportedly is not interested and in a retirement mind set. Reports swirling that she was paving the way behind the scenes for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to be her successor.

Jeffries and the “historic” nature of his presumptive upcoming role as House Minority Leader is that he is – by the Democrats’ own very convenient definition – a threat to democracy as a denier. He was very vocal about denying the results of the 2016 election and the legitimacy of Trump’s presidency.

Jeffries has also equated pro-life conservatives to a “cult” “The threat right now in this country to the American people are extreme MAGA Republicans,” the Democrat leader said. “That’s the threat. That’s the problem. That’s the crisis that we confront, extreme MAGA Republicans. Why? They are extreme on reproductive freedom.”

He wrote during the Kyle Rittenhouse trial when it became abundantly clear that Rittenhouse’s actions were in self-defense that he should be locked up with the key thrown away.

North/South Korea –

Overnight NK launched a long range ICBM capable missile. The missile was fired at 10:15 local time (02:15 GMT) from near the North Korean capital Pyongyang, military chiefs in Seoul said. It reached an altitude of 6,100km (second highest apogee to date) on a lofted trajectory and travelled 1,000km (621 miles), reaching a speed of Mach 22, South Korea’s military said.
A lofted trajectory means the missile flies much higher into space but across a shorter distance than it would if fired on a normal trajectory. But Japan’s defence minister Yasukazu Hamada said the missile had sufficient range to reach the US -
“Based on calculations taking the trajectory into account, the ballistic missile this time around could have had a range capability of 15,000 km, depending on the weight of its warhead, and if that’s the case, it means the US mainland was within its range,” he said. Standard transjectory, range would have been about 15,000 km. “

In response, SK launched fighter aircraft drills, using F35s and laser guided bombs.

OBSERVATION – The missing component is a nuclear weapon warhead small enough to be carried by such a rocket. When NK FINALLY gets around to doing its next underground test, it will likely be to test such a device.

Japan –

Japan is conducting Japanese-American military exercises in response to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile overnight.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday in Thailand on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Japan has lodged a series of diplomatic complaints over Chinese activity in its economic exclusive zone near the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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A Dutch court has found two Russian men and one Ukrainian man guilty of shooting down the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014, but acquitted a third Russian.

Wagner financer Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to establish himself as a central figure in the pro-war ultranationalist community, likely in pursuit of ambitious political goals. Russian opposition media outlet Meduza reported on November 16 that two sources close to the Kremlin stated that Prigozhin is thinking about creating a “conservative movement” that may become a political party. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin has established an information campaign of constant anti-elite rhetoric modeled after jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s social media campaign against Russian corruption, but to a very different effect. Meduza’s sources reported that Prigozhin intends to simultaneously use the anti-elite social media campaign to cast himself as a populist figure while currying favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin by intimidating elites that may be viewed as insufficiently loyal to Putin.

As Russia on Thursday launched more airstrikes targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, the Kremlin made clear that the onset of wintry weather would not affect its invasion, now in its 267th day.
“The special military operation is continuing, it does not depend on climatic or weather conditions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Its goals must be achieved.”
Temperatures in Kyiv dropped below freezing on Thursday, with the first snow of the season falling. Snow is forecast for nine of the next 14 days, with temperatures dropping as low as –6 degrees Celsius (21 degrees F). Average monthly temperatures drop to a low of –7 degrees Celsius in January.

OBSERVATION – This is easy for Peskov to say, he’s not in the trenches, under equipped for the cold weather with mud above the ankles.

Logistics –
- The increasing use of Kh-55/59 missiles over other types in recent attacks suggest that stocks of more advanced missiles have been seriously depleted which has been widely reported before.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued yesterday targeting energy infrastructure, military installations and possibly command and control in Kyiv and other regions. These were not as intensive as with previous attacks. These were mostly Russian Kh-101, Kh-55, Kh-59 and Kalibr cruise missile variants launched in stand off strikes from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and from the Black Sea.

Fighting continues to be heaviest east of Bakhmut, with continuing Russian ground offensives, intensive shelling and missile strikes. Ukrainian forces continue to hold Bakhmut and launch localized counteroffensives.

Russian shelling was intensive near Bakhmut, Donetsk, Kreminna, Avdiivka and Polohy yesterday, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions. Russian shelling returned sporadically onto areas of Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Nikopol and overnight into the Sumy Oblast and north of Kherson.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Reports of Russia busily constructing more defensive lines, primarily along approaches to the Crimean peninsula.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in the rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian power grid have decreased since Tuesday, suggesting that supplies are beginning to run low again.

On the ground, not much change is expected IMHO but there is always a chance that Ukraine may succeed in a breakthrough and things get interesting again. Biggest chance for a break through is the Svatove – Kreminna front.

Russian will continue to beat its head against the wall in Bakhmut. Any breakthrough there will be minor as Ukraine has established a defense in depth across that section of the front and Russian/Wagner group forces are probably not positioned to exploit a breakthrough with enough forces to do anything.

Iran -

Drone that hit Israeli owned tanker according to a Western official cited by BBC, was launched from an IRGC base in the southeastern Iranian city of Chabahar.

OBSERVATION - Iran is getting pretty bold. In the past they’ve used Houthi controlled areas and other proxy locations to launch from. Openly launching from Iranian territory is pretty much in your face.

Protests continue across the country with increased violence between protestors and IRGC/Basji enforcers. The violent response by the govt is increasing the feed back loop of calls for vengeance for those martyred, driving up numbers and push back violence.

Heavy emphasis on the republican infighting ongoing in congress. The swamp rats are thinking its ok to come out of their holes. Bad enough having to fight the democrats, but these rino’s as well . . . .

Globalism / Great Reset –

One of the big things coming out of the COP27 is the renewed push for net zero carbon by 2050. Twenty eight years to eliminate the current fossil fuel based economy. However, these intellectual lightweights are totally ignorant on the vast impacts no more fossil fuels will have. Starvation on a massive scale, massive sickness and death. But remember, they want the population of the earth to be paired down to 500,000 million.

Economy –

Households increased debt during the third quarter at the fastest pace in 15 years due to hefty increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
Total debt jumped by $351 billion for the July-to-September period, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007, bringing the collective household IOU in the U.S. to a fresh record $16.5 trillion. That’s an increase of 2.2% from the previous quarter and 8.3% from a year ago.
The increase follows a $310 billion jump in the second quarter and represents a $1.27 trillion annual increase.

OBSERVATION – Massive debt grows to eventually kill economic growth as lines of credit eventually run out. While the biggest contributors to that debt load came from mortgage an unprecedented amount comes trying to maintain the essentials of living – unprecedented in modern times IRC. People putting food, medical etc on credit instead of ‘toys’ and other items.

Invasion of Illegals –

From October 22 to November 4, the ICE conducted an operation that rounded up 138 “unlawfully present noncitizens convicted of sex offenses” — that is, illegal immigrants who’d already committed sex crimes against Americans — many of whom already had orders for removal from the United States.

OBSERVATION – Must it be asked? With over 5 million illegals pouring into this country - how many more vermin like this are prowling around our neighborhoods.

A handful of Senate Republicans reportedly started talks with illegal aliens enrolled in and eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program as House and Senate Democrats, along with corporate special interest allies, hope to pass an amnesty in the lame-duck Congress.
This week, DACA illegal aliens and open borders activists descended on Washington, DC, in their efforts to lobby ten Senate Republicans to join Democrats in passing an amnesty — before the GOP takes control of the House — that would secure them green cards and, eventually, naturalized American citizenship.

OBSERVATION – Right now it is clear there are 12 Republicans willing to vote with the democrats. Schumer has already called for blanket amnesty for ALL illegals in the country. With the 12, schumer could potentially work past the filibuster limits and move an amnesty package forward to the house while in lame duck session. There are not enough republicans in the house to block it.

CW2/Domestic violence –

More examination of the “Respect for Marriage Act” shows powers given to the state/govt is focused on silencing religious opposition under the force of law and punishment. Liberals intend to redefine the right of religious expression and practice so as to exclude from the public square all of those whose sincere faith requires them to reject same-sex marriage.
With that redefinition, the liberals are saying to millions of Americans that they have no right to disagree in the public square with same-sex marriage and the state can and indeed soon will take their property via taxes and use them to support the enforcement of same-sex marriage as a political right.
That enforcement is the second element of this law commands attention. The bill includes provisions that authorize the IRS to jerk the tax exemption of any church or non-profit that opposes same-sex marriage. The bill also encourages litigation to be brought against those same institutions in the court system to enforce the right to same-sex marriage.

OBSERVATION – The Supreme Court’s Obergefell decision in 2015 made same-sex marriage legal across the nation. What we are facing here is a broad elimination of rights to silence further opposition to the LGBT / Progressive tyrants because Christian conservative views are a threat that need to be destroyed by any means necessary. Instead of our rights being guaranteed from intrusion by the govt – as outlined in the Constitution – govt becomes the provider of rights. A concept that has constantly and continually been shown to be used by tyrannical govts around the world throughout history.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitterverse meltdown continues as the twits think the end of the world has arrived. The cry who’s going to protect them from the opposing views they’ve pushed off platform over the years.

POLITICAL FRONT –

SUMMARY –

We all knew this was coming. U.S. Attorney General Garland has appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith to determine if Donald Trump should be charged in the January 6th and Mar-a-Lago probes. In 2018 he was named Chief Prosecutor for the Special Court in The Hague where he investigated war crimes in Kosovo.

On the flip side, indicators that the republican house will investigate hunter biden and biden’s associations with his shady dealings. WH has already established a war room to counter republican efforts.

OBSERVATION – Of course the deck is stacked. It is a given that Trump will be charged with something and taken to court. Biden investigations OTOH have the republicans already behind since biden/demoncrats hold the home field advantage and the DoJ will not prosecute even if there is a smoking gun. Biden also has most of the media on his side as well.

The republican party in congress is seeing a growing internal civil war between the ‘moderates’ (read eGOP/Rinos) and the more conservative MAGA inclined branch. Already the eGOP have maneuvered to keep MAGA out of the senate and house leadership. These rinos have showed us their allegiance boldly with the recent votes on the disastrous “Respect for Marriage Act” - 12 Republican senators and something like 57 representatives voting for it. The 12 in the senate in a flip could help democrat bills beat the filibuster. In the House, those turncoats could flip and support democrat minority bills.

Of course the biggest target of the republican never-trumpers is Trump himself. These rinos will not stand up to the blatant abuse of power the biden DoJ is beginning to use against Trump (as well as anyone on the right – all you domestic terrorists).

Democrats in congress are already beginning to smell the blood and will do all they can to help their fellow republicans in their squabble.

Even more concerning that is bubbling in the background are the reports that McCarthy used FTX cash to defeat conservatives in 2022, as the corrupt, globalist-tied crypto exchange funded the establishment wings of both parties. The Washington Post, reported that McCarthy was using left-wing oligarch money to “sway” the GOP field in favor of his establishment agenda.

McCarthy apparently wasn’t alone in this. Documents show McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund received $2,500,000 from someone at FTX. Again, monies linked to undercutting MAGA friendly republican senate candidates and campaigns.

OBSERVATION – Republican civil war is pretty obvious but If the FTX stories are true this has reached a more sinister level. Infected with liberal, illicit money it wont matter who the republican candidate for president is – he’s already been sold out. The American people - sold out. How this civil war and FTX debacle will go has yet to be seen, but isn’t looking good.

SEE ALSO sell outs for DACA under illegals.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US B-1B bomber was redeployed on Korean peninsula for joint air drill according to South Korean military spokeman.

The American X-37B space finally landed on November 12th after a record breaking 908 days in orbit. This was the sixth orbital mission for the X-37B and it began on May 17, 2020. The previous mission was 780 days and the ones before that 718, 675, 469, and 225.

U.S. aircraft carriers USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) and USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) will exercise with aircraft carriers from France, Italy and the United Kingdom as part of a joint operation across Europe meant to show NATO interoperability, the Pentagon announced Thursday.
The two American carrier strike groups, their embarked air wings and escorts will be operating in the North Atlantic Ocean, North Sea and Mediterranean Sea along with the U.K. Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08), Italian carrier ITS Cavour (CVH 550) and the French FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91), Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters Thursday.

OBSERVATION – This is the first exercise deployment for the USS Ford, the problem plagued supercarrier.

North/South Korea –

NK’s recent rocket test involved the Hwasong-17 ICBM. The weapon is thought to be North Korea’s longest-range missile (15,000 km) , reportedly capable of striking the entire US mainland. Analysts also believe it could carry three to five nuclear warheads.

OBSERVATION - Said this before, the next big step for NK is the development of a warhead to ride on these rockets and then with that the development of a reentry capability for said warheads. These tests may have in part been to test reentry systems for an eventual warhead.

Japan –

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

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Russia continues to press the war while its economy struggles.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.

RUMINT –
Indications that a Ukraine ‘maritime drone’ attacked Novorossiysk´s Sheskharis oil terminal last night. Video shows an explosion against a ship – no details on type of ship or damages.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces made minor gains east of Bakhmut the last 24hrs. Further Russian reinforcements arrived east of Bakhmut yesterday as it relocates further forces from Kherson into this region to try to break through Ukrainian defenses. This region continues to see fierce fighting.

Russian reinforcements were also reported West of Kreminna where fighting intensified in the last 24hrs.

Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were significantly less than

Ukrainian forces continue to successfully target Russian command and control, force concentrations, weapons systems, resupplies and resupply mechanisms with artillery, missiles, airstrikes and sabotage attacks.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.
Russian occupation officials and military leadership are seemingly increasingly concerned about subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine. Based on increased evidence of more extensive defensive lines being constructed Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts as well as in Crimea itself.

Crimean front ———
Russian forces continued to conduct defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on November 18 while Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and concentration areas south of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in the rear areas of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory. Russian forces have increased ‘filtration’ – an effort to identify and capture probable insurgents throughout occupied southern Ukraine.

OUTLOOK ——
Little change from previous postings. It appears that Russian is hurrying the redeployment of forces from Kherson to the eastern front. Given the history of the war so far, integration of these units into any kind of an effective fighting force in such short notice pretty much guarantees that Russia will not be able to effectively gain much, if any, territory in its renewed Donbas campaign. Loss of Kherson has also elevated fears of a Ukrainian push on Crimea. Those fears will cause Russia to commit a sizeable portion of its forces to defend against a Ukrainian offensive from either Kherson (not likely) or Zaporizhia (more likely) pushing to Crimea.

Morale of Russian soldiers is also reportedly deteriorating, as if it could get much worse. New conscripts bring serious issues with them and the onset of winter is making life on the front even more miserable. Reports of ‘second’ defensive lines – Russians shooting any soldiers retreating from the front (tactic used in WW2) as well as numerous jail’s holding those trying to get out of the battle zone.

As a result, there are few units that appear capable of bringing the fight – mainly Wagner Group mercenaries and the few remaining ‘elite’ Russian forces like their airborne units. These have been heavily attritted and to incorporate new soldiers into these units very difficult to say the least.

Poland -

Warsaw has decided to bar the entry of the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Poland for the OSCE ministerial meeting in Lodz on 1-2 Dec. Russia has responded with a furious letter to OSCE.

Israel –

Airstrikes in Syria – see below

Iran -

I’ve mentioned how the murderous response by the regime is only throwing gasoline on the protest fires. Here are some snippets of protest actions depicting that –

iran protesters set fire to ancestral home of islamic republic founder Khomeini

Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province. - An IRGC-affiliated Basij building was captured by the protestors.

Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province. - “Imam of Friday prayers, ‘Jalal Moradi’ was set on fire by the protestors”

Tehran, Tehran Province - Behesht E Zahra cemetery. Burial of “Hamid Reza Roohi” who was killed by the regime. Chanting “Whoever gets killed, a thousand more will avenge them”

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly warned on Saturday that the threat from Iran’s nuclear program is “more advanced than ever before”. “Britain is determined to work alongside our friends to counter the Iranian threat,” he said, addressing the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain

Iraq -

A senior Iranian military official visiting Baghdad this week threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups.

The US Consulate General in Erbil has warned US citizens about possible Turkish military action in northern Syria and northern Iraq, based on “open source reports”. US citizens have been asked to stay away from border areas and crowds.

OBSERVATION – Turkey is ticked at the Kurds over a recent bombing. Iran is blaming Kurds for the continued violent protests against the regime. Both countries have no qualms about territorial ‘integrity’ and have struck at Kurds in both countries. Their ability to do so without consequences shows the weakness of the current Iraqi govt – and Muslims feast upon those who show weakness.

Syria -

US Consulate General in Erbil has warned US citizens about possible Turkish military action in northern Syria
See Iraq above for more.

Israeli strikes on Saturday morning killed four Syrian soldiers in central and western districts, Syrian state media said. SOHR reported that the strikes targeted pro-Iranian groups in Homs and Hama provinces, and a Syrian air defense battery in Latakia - via @AFP