Replies

Took the day off yesterday. Will catch up today as not too eventful weekend.

Globalism / Great Reset –

“We need a single world order,” Macron told the audience at the ongoing Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok, Thailand. “Are you on the U.S. side or the China side?” Macron asked rhetorically. “Because now, progressively, a lot of people would like to see that there are two orders in this world.”
“A dynamic balance is the best way for nations to avoid being forced to choose between superpowers. Countries have to pursue inclusive, sustainable development to address inequality and instability,” he said. “You compete, all of us want to win. But you have to respect the sovereignty of the other one.”
“I am sure that the only way to have a win-win game is to cooperate and to accept that all the members of the different regions of this world, will make their life easier and better at the end of the day,” he added.

OBSERVATION- Macron is a known WEF/GGR adherent. Here he calls for a global rulership.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out that over $10 billion in arms has been sent to Ukraine, yet only $1.2 billion in funding has been allocated to the Department of Defense to replace those weapons. In fact, the CSIS report adds that moving the U.S. from peacetime arms production to wartime mobilization would take years and that weapons sent to Ukraine may take a decade to replace.

OBSERVATION – Why is this important under GGR? Just like the draining of the strategic oil reserve, this weakens our ability to respond to any direct threat. The delay in shifting to a wartime production may give China the incentive to forcefully retake Taiwan.

Biden says the US will sign-up to a UN-backed fund to pay reparations to developing countries worst-affected by climate change.
The creation of the fund was announced Saturday. It was negotiated at the United Nations’ COP27 Summit in Egypt, was originally known as a ‘loss and damage’ fund and had been blocked by previous American administrations.
The nations who’ll benefit from the funds are largely from Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the South Pacific. They say they’re set to be worst-affected by rising sea levels and other weather extremes blamed on carbon emissions created by wealthier countries.

OBSERVATION – We all recognize this as another vehicle of wealth redistribution that will eventually be reinforced by a global cabal to even a greater extent.

Die Welt, citing the German Meat Industry Association (VDF), reported this week that within the next four to six months Germany will face a meat shortage, and prices will skyrocket.
Hubert Kelliger, a VDF board member and head of group sales at meat seller Westfleisch said, “In four, five, six months we will have gaps on the shelves.”
Pork is expected to experience the worst shortages. The issues in meat supply are due to Berlin insisting on reducing the numbers of livestock by 50% to reduce global warming emissions. Experts are warning this policy will result in mass shutdown of meat-producing companies, and that will produce a 40% rise in the price of meat.

OBSERVATION – levels of starvation are fast approaching as methods of enforcing so called “green” emission controls. Germany is following Netherland’s lead by forcefully reducing herds/flocks. German markets will have to rely more heavily on imported meat, driving costs up further, not only in Germany, but other countries as well as cattle ranching has been hit in other parts of the world – like the US for example. SEE ALSO Economy below.

Economy –

The U.S. government estimates that food prices have increased by 9.5% to 10.5% this year. Cargill CEO David MacLennan predicted that food prices would decline in 2023 but that one bad crop in North or South America could send food prices higher.

OBSERVATION – I’ve been noting a lot here about the multiple threats to the US food supply. Currently the biggest ones are next year’s crops. Lack of fertilizer, questionable rain, continued high fuel prices and the expensive efforts to restore flocks and herds that have been hard hit over the past couple years are just a few of the items that can blow up and continued food inflation.

Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley predicted a prolonged shortage of legacy chips necessary for vehicle manufacturing. A constrained supply of these chips has cost Ford 1.3 million vehicles in lost production. Farley said that growth in demand from carmakers is double the growth of manufacturing capacity by chip makers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung Electronics Company have worked to fill demand from carmakers, but both companies have focused on more profitable advanced chips.

OBSERVATION – High tech is still suffering and manufacturers are slow to bring those processes home - hoping to keep overseas high profits for as long as possible. Semiconductors are necessary across a broad spectrum of products today, not just cars.
NOTE – See China below on semiconductors.

Invasion of Illegals –

Warnings of an illegal tsunami following the suspension of Title 42.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Arizona’s AG Mark Brnovich’s election integrity unit has demanded a full report of well-publicized irregularities, and what he claims is evidence of “statutory violations.” The letter, sent late Saturday by Assistant AG Jennifer Wright to the county’s top civil division attorney, Thomas Liddy, is a major escalation over widespread problems with voting tabulators and printers, which delayed the declaration of a winner in razor-thin races in the attorney general’s race and the gubernatorial race.

OBSERVATION- Will this finally be the moment the democrats are caught with their hand in the cookie jar?

China –

See GGR above.
Some analysts view China as taking an intermediate path to the capture of Taiwan now that the US midterms are over. With a split decision in the congress - with the minimal majority of republicans in the house, they think China has gained some breathing space. However, that is forecast to be short lived as Taiwan as well as Japan are working fiercely to ramp up their military preparations for a China conflict. I’ve stated that China, playing a longer game, will at first use non-lethal coercion to gain control, and progressively ramp up the pressure via blockades and if necessary, an actual attack. The risk of an attack is the risk that China will severely damage/destroy much of the coveted microchip industry of Taiwan – technology China is desperate to get their hands on. But China may not be able to wait much past the 2024 election before taking that level of action.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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RUMINT –
“Russian “milbloggers” are circulating claims that general mobilization will begin in December or January, adding that ‘it is evident that Russian authorities never fully halted mobilization efforts.’”

Logistics –
- Moscow has quietly reached an agreement with Tehran to begin manufacturing hundreds of unmanned weaponized aircraft on Russian soil, according to new intelligence.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continued to be fierce around Bakhmut, Soledar and northwest of Donetsk, but the poor weather is now impacting fighting.

Poor weather is also decreasing Russian shelling , now reportedly mostly more sporadic in the impacted regions yesterday. Some intensive barrages continue around Bakhmut and Svatove

Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight were far more limited and mostly in the southeast.

It is estimated that Ukraine’s electrical grid has lost nearly 50% capacity as a result of recent Russian missile/drone strikes.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian sources continue to report localized Ukranian attacks towards the Savtove – Kreminna line. Minor gains being noted.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to transfer some forces from the east bank of the Dnipro River to other operational areas, but still maintain a significant force presence in southern Kherson Oblast.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

Oil depot caught fire in Makiivka overnight

OUTLOOK ——
Deteriorating weather conditions are turning soil into a quagmire, negatively affecting both sides. This results in essentially foot soldier attacks, denying fast armor strikes. Not until the soils freeze will we see the potential for more maneuver warfare.

The assumption that the winter will favor Ukraine still holds.

More waves of Russian airstrikes with missiles and drones targeting energy infrastructure, military installations and weapons movements, and even the political apparatus are still possible and anticipated. However, Russia is running out of stocks and it is taking longer to accumulate the numbers of missiles/droned necessary to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defenses.

Belarus -

According to Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate, Russia is planning on conducting terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure in Belarus in order to bring Belarus deeper into the conflict, and blame NATO/Ukraine for the attack.

OBSERVATION - This rumor has been floating around out there for a while. General consensus is that the military leaders of Belarus’ army do not want to get involved in Ukraine directly.

Belarus’ Border Guard claimed that a Ukrainian serviceman “illegally crossed the border, took photos and videos of the area, and also searched for or installed something in the snow” on Nov. 19.

Russian and Belarus troops continue to conduct exercises in established training areas in central and western Belarus.

Poland -

Poland announces the acceptance of a German proposal to deploy Patriot missile batteries on its soil

Europe / NATO General –

In a publicized statement, Swedish Prosecution Authority Officials confirmed the Nord Stream Gas pipeline leaks were the result of deliberate “gross sabotage.” Saying the investigation was still ongoing, lead prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said an analysis conducted on objects recovered from the blast site had found traces of explosives.

Israel –

Head of Israeli army Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen.Aharon Haliva at INSS conference - “Iran is considering disrupting the World Cup games in Qatar. The only thing preventing them: how the Qataris will react”

Iran –

Reports of an Iranian ballistic missile attack overnight against Kurdish forces in Koysinjaq, Iraq. Air Raid Sirens have also been heard from the U.S Consulate in the City of Erbil. Headquarters of the Kurdish Democratic Party is in the City of Erbil.

Protests continued throughout Iran on Sunday, over nine weeks after Mahsa Amini was killed by Tehran “morality police.” Iranian protesters conducted demonstrations and strikes across Iran on Sunday after regime forces violently cracked down on Kurdish cities in western Iran overnight,
- Iranian security forces firing live ammunition at protesters in Javanrud.
- IRGC SOF forces went into Kurdish areas of western-northwestern Iran and raided homes, killing the occupants in the latest heavy handed attempt to put down protests that have gone on for nearly 60 days now.
- Iranian security forces open fire on protesters in the town of Piranshahr in West Azerbaijan province

OBSERVATION – Iran is focusing on the Kurdish faction of its citizenry for the brunt of its repressive attacks. This continues to set up a spiraling level of violence by the protestors. Kurds have a history of being pretty stout hearted against this action. Other than trying to misdirect other elements in Iran to support the govt against the outside ‘threat’ ie Kurdish nationalists outside Iran, attacks in Iraq are likely to have little effect on stopping the ongoing protests.

Iraq -

Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Shakhwan Abdullah: “The Iranian attacks are an unacceptable transgression and a violation of sovereignty”

Syria -

The Turkish army bombarded with rockets and artillery sites of the Pro-Assad forces forces and the SDF in several areas in the countryside of Kobane and the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.
Turkish warplanes targeted the positions of the SDF militia in the village of Zour Maghara and Jabal al-Shuyukh, east of the Euphrates River, opposite the city of Jarabulus.

OBSERVATION – Kurds facing attacks by both Turkey and Iran.

Turkey -

See Syria above.

Erdogan – “Turkish operations in northern Syria and Iraq are not limited to aerial bombardment, and we are having discussions about ground operations”

Agence France-Presse, quoting a Turkish official: two dead and 6 wounded as a result of missile strikes on the Turkish border from Syria

Central / South America General-

Brazilian federal highway police issued a bulletin indicating protestors had blocked six highways after President Jair Bolsonaro posted a cryptic video of himself driving a truck, bus, and tractor to social media. The video references the agricultural, transport, and public service industries that form Bolsonaro’s support base and has been viewed as encouraging ongoing protests by supporters. Bolsonaro has yet to concede to Lula’s victory in the elections but has largely remained out of public view and refrained from public comment.

This gets uglier – Reports that Brazilian Justice Inspector, Minister Luis Felipe Salomao. who was appointed as a minister by then-President Lula da Silva back in 2008, signed an order allowing child services to take children away from election protesters.

OBSERVATION - It doesn’t appear that these continued protests will gain much more traction. The military is staying out of the mix for now.

Black Swans -

According to NASA’s calculations, asteroid 2005 ED224 could impact the Earth on March 11, 2023. It is estimated to be 54-meters in diameter and normally, an asteroid this size would burn up or explode in the atmosphere. But ED 224 is traveling at 61,000mph and if it maintains this speed, the asteroid could penetrate the atmosphere and reach the ground.
Such an impact would create a crater 1,000 meters wide and release enough explosive energy to destroy an entire city.
If ED 224 misses in March, it is still on track to have four more potential impacts in 2028, 2029, 2030, and 2064. Though it only has a 1 in 500,000 chance of impact, ED 224 has been listed in NASA’s Sentry Earth impact monitoring database that tracks all known asteroids possessing even a slim chance of Earth collisions. To date, NASA has tracked only an estimated 40% of the larger asteroids and there have been several cases in which an undetected asteroid impacted Earth.

OBSERVATION – Over the weekend a sub-meter rock was detected hours before it entered the atmosphere above Lake Ontario. An Asteroid strike, though rare, is possible and ED 224 could carry the punch of a nuclear weapon. With all the other problems in the world, if it hit a critical area, the economic repercussions could be substantial, physical damage significant.

Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley predicted a prolonged shortage of legacy chips necessary for vehicle manufacturing. A constrained supply of these chips has cost Ford 1.3 million vehicles in lost production. Farley said that growth in demand from carmakers is double the growth of manufacturing capacity by chip makers. Taiwan Semiconductor

One look at the messes our country's in - constantly in - based on poor information - showcases that 90% of the money we spend on 'intelligence' is a waste. A waste for the country - a waste for our industries and a waste for our taxpayers.

We should have been dealing with the chip problem decades ago. Let's redirected money AWAY FROM FOOLS WHO THINK KNOWING WHO PUTIN AND XI SLEEP WITH matters and give those billions to people who understand OUR COUNTRY MATTERS FIRST.

I’ve been warning of a convergence of factors targeting late fall, around the midterms. So far the bullet has been dodged – in a way and not quite as I was concerned, but to summarize –

1. Red wave – wimpered, giving democrats a ‘win’ on the national level.
2. G20/COP27 documented the globalist goals for a global digital ‘passport’; biometric secured digital currency and global warming agendas/reparations.
3. Economy is still on the sharp edge of disaster
4. Biden et al post midterms is doubling and tripling down on his policies.
5. Fed interest rates hammering the housing/mortgage markets
6. Fuel situation is in a serious state regionally.
7. Illegal immigration gets even worse.

Still pending is the potential rail road strike; more impacts from the Fed rate increases; resumption of conflict in the Balkans; armed conflict against iran (both US and Israel) and internal US political unrest as DoJ weaponized against Trump/conservatives and the republicans ramp up for going after biden graft and corruption.

These factors are all in play and IMHO still very much going into the red zone along with new ones. Serious watch over the next few months.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has been selling dollars in order to try and prop up their bond markets. And realize this. They are not selling USDs as part of some well-calculated plan because they want to. They are selling USDs because they HAVE to.
And it’s not working.
PauloMacro on Twitter referenced it like this:
“They used 7% of reserves to only keep the Yen from depreciating another 2.5% since they last intervened 4 weeks ago. If the same math holds, the BOJ will blow through the other 93% while the Yen depreciates another 33%, which is roughly what the Yen has depreciated since last December.”
“Said differently, the BOJ will have to blow through all its reserves just to keep the Yen at the same depreciation rate it has incurred over the last 12 months if the math on the last 2 interventions are any guide.””

OBSERVATION - ALL nations are facing this same problem. Central banks held rates far too low for far too long. The real issue now is that the entire system has become dependent on central banks to continue doing this and without it they could trigger a global economic disaster.
Some analysts are looking at Europe and warning of significant food shortages and shock in the near and long term. Having lost most of its imported fertilizer from Russia and Belarus, it finds itself incapable of its own production filling the gap given the shortage of and high price of natural gas. Add to the deliberate assault on agriculture by the Netherlands and Germany (against livestock industry) and they find themselves increasingly dependent on external sources of food. Those sources are in turn suffering similar fertilizer and ‘global warming’ issues too, with some countries restricting exports in order to insure its country is able to be fed first.

Fighting another move by the biden regime to kill the petrochemical industry, twelve attorneys general have submitted comments to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan expressing concerns about a new proposed rule they argue will increase energy costs and risk Americans’ safety.

At issue is the EPA’s proposed rule, “Accidental Release Prevention Requirements: Risk Management Programs under Clean Air Act; Safer Communities by Chemical Accident Prevention.” (87 Fed. Reg. 53,556), which Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton argues is another attempt by the Biden administration to revive an Obama-era “environmental justice” regulation. If implemented, it would far exceed the statutory authority of the EPA, the attorneys general argue, which was curtailed by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

The rule would require a range of American facilities and industries to implement costly new processes to minimize “climate change risks,” which the EPA hasn’t proved will reduce such risks, they argue. Those impacted by the regulations would include petroleum refineries, chemical manufacturers, water and wastewater treatment systems, chemical and petroleum wholesalers and terminals, food manufacturers, packing plants, cold storage facilities, agricultural chemical distributors, midstream gas plants, among others.

OBSERVATION - Biden, like 0bama before him, continues to use regulatory backdoors to impose its anti-petrochemical / anti-business agenda on the country. History indicates that this will end up tied up in courts for years while the regime will enforce it until an injunction is issued (then to continue to violate the injunction through minor modifications that change the initial regulation).

Eugenicists (like Bill Gates) see growth in Europe with increasing work to abort any child with any genetic shortcomings. In some European nations, there are very few with Downs Syndrome to be found – most being aborted upon detection. That effort is spreading to those who make it out of the womb thru euthanasia.

OBSERVATION – remember- GGR recently came out and called for a 50% reduction in the planet’s population by the year 2050 – numbers wise that is some 4 BILLION PEOPLE. mRNA reactions, abortion, euthanasia and yes, even wars and induced famine are the currently exposed tools, yet even those tools pale at the desired goal.

IIRC, when I was a kid the planet had 4 BILLION. The now destroyed Georgia Guidestones called for a 500 million population. The death and destruction prophesied in the Book of Revelation doesn’t seem to far off now.

Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor at the Bank of England (BoE), said the U.K. may need a digital British pound as he discussed whether the collapse of crypto exchange FTX would influence the country’s decision to issue a government-controlled digital currency.
Although he initially thought there was no connection between the FTX debacle and the central bank’s work on a central bank digital currency, Cunliffe said on Monday that he understands the concerns.
“Over the past few days, I have had a few comments both to the effect that the collapse of FTX shows that we need to get on and issue a digitally native pound – and to the effect that FTX shows that we do not need do so,”

OBSERVATION – The GGR elements moving forward to exploit the FTX debacle to push digital currency.

EPA has proposed a new estimate for the social cost of carbon emissions, nearly quadrupling the $51 a ton to $191 a ton. It has already drawn legal challenges from a host of Republican-led states. It will correspond to a $ 2-a-gallon gas tax. The metric puts a price tag on the alleged damages created by each metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. Agencies can then use it as part of their analyses of the costs and benefits of more stringent climate regulation on sources ranging from power plants and automobiles to the oil and gas sector.

The Biden administration has used the Interagency Working Group’s interim value of $51 per metric ton of CO2. But earlier this month, EPA quietly proposed increasing that number to $190.

The administration’s use of the IWG’s interim social cost of greenhouse gases has been challenged in parallel lawsuits led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, both Republicans.
That document estimates the social cost of carbon as $120, $190, or $340 per metric ton of CO2, using discount rates of 2.5 percent, 2.0 percent, and 1.5 percent, respectively. Such rates reflect the weight given to future impacts of climate change.

OBSERVATION – This is in essence a tax on the economy and will eventually be used in part as a basis to pay reparations to third world countries for global warming impacts.

Economy –

A very slight breather, the national average price of gasoline dropped to $3.662 a gallon, while demand is 5% lower than this time last year. Diesel, however, remains sky high.

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Mike Christie said the push to replace fossil fuel plants with green energy alternatives is creating a crisis for U.S. grids by making energy more expensive, raising concern over the possibility of more frequent blackouts. Christie said he sees renewable energy as critical for cutting emissions, but the speed of transition needs to be realistic to prevent disruptions. (FO)

OBSERVATION – I am convinced, in part, that the great push to replace fossil fuels with “green” solutions is deliberate. You can co-file this under GGR if you want. The goal is to cause the economy to implode and lack of power to run the economy is one way to do it. Europe is the current test bed on a large scale for this disaster - we need to pay attention to the social disruptions that will occur this winter – because we are next.

The two largest freight-rail unions, SMART-TD and the BLET, were the last of the twelve unions covered by national bargaining to release the results of their members’ voting on the tentative labor agreement brokered by the Biden administration two months ago. The BLET narrowly voted to approve the contract, but SMART-TD narrowly voted to reject it. Parties will return to negotiation, with a strike first becoming legal on December 9.
Even one union going on strike would mean the entire national freight-rail network would shut down because the other unions would not cross a picket line. Four of the twelve unions have voted to reject the Biden-brokered deal.

OBSERVATION – Oncoming train wreck still on schedule.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A federal judge ruled Monday that former White House press secretary Jen Psaki must comply with a subpoena and offer deposition in a lawsuit that claims the Biden administration colluded with Big Tech to censor speech.
Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana on Monday rejected a motion by attorneys for Psaki to block a court-ordered deposition, and said there is public interest in “determining whether First Amendment free speech rights have been suppressed.”

OBSERVATION – biden administration was very sloppy on this whole censorship issue – thinking they could get away with it scott free. It is becoming apparent that it isn’t so.

Cyber Warfare –

Some nasty group has attacked Comic.com and some affiliated websites – denying Americans their daily dose of humor. Personally, one of the few things that gets me going in the morning (besides a cup of coffee).

China –

Admiral Sam Paparo, Head of the US Pacific Fleet, publicly acknowledged the Chinese military has deployed a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile onboard its nuclear submarine fleet. Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has equipped its 6 Jin-class nuclear missile submarines with the JL-3 ICBM that he described as being “built to threaten the United States.” With an estimated range of 10,000km, the JL-3 can hit the continental U.S. from the protection of the South China Sea, granting China a true strategic deterrence triad. (FO)

OBSERVATION – A true threat, IIRC the South China Sea is relatively shallow and it is hard for boomers to hide very well. Still, six boomers deployed over the large area of the SCS is nearly looking for a needle in the haystack – unless we have (and maintain) a close fix on them.

North/South Korea –

The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States Tuesday that it would face “a more fatal security crisis” as Washington pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test.
“The U.S. should be mindful that no matter how desperately it may seek to disarm (North Korea), it can never deprive (North Korea) of its right to self-defense and that the more hell-bent it gets on the anti-(North Korea) acts, it will face a more fatal security crisis,” she said in a statement carried by state media.

OBSERVATION – This is one mean person and should Kim pass away suddenly, she wouldn’t hesitate taking control and starting a war.

Japan –

See GGR above on bond market blowup.

Over the weekend, Japan conducted two test firing events for the U.S.-Japan jointly produced SM-3 Block IIA missile system. Both tests took place in the vicinity of Hawaii on the Kauai U.S. Navy Missile Range Facility. The missile launches were conducted by two Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) Maya-class destroyers against ballistic missile targets. Maya-class destroyers are the first AEGIS JMSDF destroyers equipped with a ballistic missile defense capability.

OBSERVATION – Japan is trying to quickly close the gap on ballistic missile defenses and procurement of established – almost off the shelf – US AEGIS systems with the SM-3 Block IIA missiles – is a common sense move. Such systems can not only be used to protect the fleet, but parts of Japan proper.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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The Pentagon believes that Russia is trying to secure aerial dominance through missile strikes that drain Ukraine’s air defense capabilities Russian fixed wing jets featured less prominently early in this conflict than in Syria and the Kremlin hopes to change that.

OBSERVATION - Russia has failed to establish air superiority from day one of the invasion. It has largely been relegated to strategic bombers firing cruse missiles with some limited close air support. Meanwhile, Ukraine has gained a multifaceted air defense capability. Efforts to drain Ukranian ADA missile stockpiles is diminishing as Ukraine has transitioned to guns-based systems to shoot down the drone swarms, freeing up missiles to tackle the Russian missiles.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period. First major snowstorm has hit a lot of the country.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
There seems to be further signs of fighting intensity declining as the weather deteriorates in many parts of the country. Fighting continues to be intense around Donetsk and in the villages on the northern side of Bakhumt.

Russian shelling yesterday remained mostly more sporadic in the impacted regions. Shelling exchanges occurred north of Kherson and there were some intensive Russian shelling attacks around Donetsk and Bakhmut.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ground conflict northwest of Svatove overnight with scattered artillery along the LOC. Some rumors that Hwy 66 between Svatove and Kreminna has been cut by Ukraine forces – to be confirmed. Likely Ukraine SOF.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut and Donetsk attacks continue.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Scattered Russian artillery attacks.

Crimean front ———
Relatively calm, some Russian artillery striking Kherson city Ukrainian continues deep strikes on Russian CPs, Logistics and troop concentrations.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
As of late, the battlefield seems to have calmed down into a predictable pattern. Russia continues to batter itself via frontal attacks on Ukrainian defenses along the Dontesk-Bakhmut line using a much degraded Russian artillery corps for support. Ukraine makes progression towards cutting off the north of Lutusk oblast via progress along the Svatove – Keminna front.

A lot of dynamics have changed after the now nearly 10 months of conflict. The massive advantage in Russian artillery is nearly gone – lost to attrition from Ukraine fire, lack of replacement gun barrels and loss of ammo dumps making resupply problems even worse. Russian missile/cruse missile fires have dropped considerably from early on and now Russia is looking to Iran for new supplies. Now even more poorly trained and equipped soldiers are manning the Russian lines and they are hoping for a break in the action.

Ukrainian success has come at the cost of a lot of western arms and munitions – a lot. IMHO, Ukraine has to make or break it this winter, else the war will quickly break down into a stale mate.

Belarus -

Belarus is considering turning to Iran to help it produce 152mm and 122mm artillery shells, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported on Saturday.
Furthermore, the country is seeking Iran’s assistance with transitioning to a closed ammunition production cycle.
Additionally, Belarus is assessing the possibility of assembling 122-mm, 220-mm, and 300-mm artillery projectiles using imported components.

OBSERVATION – These rounds will ultimately be used by Russia in Ukraine – but it will take time to get production ramped up and a lot of sanctions to work around.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Talks between Kosovo and Serbian diplomats in Brussels have reportedly failed. Talks were being held to find a solution to the ongoing issue of license plates. Kosovo officials are demanding that all those residing in Kosovo swap Serbian-issued number plates for Kosovo ones. Serbia’s Vucic says absolutely no agreement was reached, and “tough days and sleepless nights await us”.
Kosovo has sent police special forces to northern Kosovo, Serbia’s president Vucic says. “Close to conflict.
Vucic did announce that “his country would stop issuing and renewing license plates in northern Kosovo.”

Kosovo has postponed plans to begin fining drivers with Serbian license plates for another two days. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said on Twitter that he had granted a request from US Ambassador Jeff Hovenier for a 48-hour delay in the imposition of fines for“illegal” license plates. “I am happy to work with the US and the EU to find a solution during the next two days,” he wrote.
Shortly before Kurti’s announcement, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price pointed out that both Kosovo and Serbia “will need to make concessions to ensure that we do not jeopardize decades of hard-won peace in an already fragile region.”

According to Pristina’s plan, drivers who failed to switch from Serbian to Kosovo car plates will be fined €150 (around $154). But after the transition period ends in April 2023, they would have their vehicles seized.

OBSERVATION - Serbia’s offer to end its issuance of license plates in northern Kosovo provides Vucic with a quick PR victory and a moral high ground on which to fuel domestic propaganda narratives to justify military interventions in Kosovo in order to protect ethnic Serbs from “mistreatment.” This mirrors similar narrative techniques utilized by Serbia’s ally, Russia, to justify its war in Ukraine and may indicate Russian attempts to manipulate tensions in the Balkans to draw NATO’s attention away from Ukraine. (FO)

FURTHER – Looking to see available OSINT that indicates if Serbia has postured its miliary for any kind of invasion. Such an invasion would likely result in the invocation of NATO Article 5 response.

Israel –

Gen. Aharon Haliva, the head of Israeli military intelligence, warned Monday that Iran could soon approach the 90% uranium enrichment level necessary to build a nuclear weapon, Axios reported.
“We are getting closer to the point where Iran will toy with enriching uranium to 90%, even if it will only be symbolic and in very small quantities at the beginning,” Haliva said at an Institute for National Security Studies conference in Tel Aviv.
The shocking move would still require a “few years or many, many months” to build a capable nuclear device, but suggested “the only thing holding them back” on flirting with the idea is how their Qatari allies would respond.

OBSERVATION – 90% potential ‘red line’ for Israel.

Iran –

The IRGC has attacked the headquarters of Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), an Iranian Kurdish dissident group, in Altun Kupri, south of Erbil province, Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Iranian opposition party headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) was also bombarded in Koya district of Erbil province.

Violence increases as protests continue. The protests are transitioning into an insurrection and the IRGC/regime response is resembling that of counterinsurgency operations. IRGC has been going and arresting/shooting anyone it believes to be an insurrectionist (protestor). This in turn has further inflamed protestor’ s passions for more protests and revenge.

Independent internet monitor NetBlocks announced a major disruption to Iranian internet networks as violent unrest sweeps the nation. NetBlocks said the disruption had severed the mobile internet for many users across the country in an apparent crackdown on the communications networks utilized by protestors and activist groups. The announcement comes as unconfirmed early reports indicate Iranian security forces launched major operations in the country’s western Kurdish-populated regions where open source videos indicate Iranian forces may have fired on protestors with live munitions resulting in casualties.

OBSERVATION – Unlike previous uprisings, this one appears to have the roots necessary to hold out and grow over a long period. Iran’s focus on Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq is valid in part because it is appearing that the protestors are starting to receive more and more support from their fellow kurds. The next level will be the smuggling of weapons and training cells to take the fight to the IRGC.

Iraq -

See Iran above on attacks on kurds.

Lebanon -

The United Nations World Food Program announced earlier today that it has boosted its food assistance to Lebanon and is now feeding approximately one-third of the country’s population. Lebanon has a population of about 6 million people, 1 million of which are Syrian refugees.

OBSERVATION - Now a third world country, Lebanon displays the woes that the wuhan/GGR induced global economic crash are producing. Making it worse are the efforts of Hezbollah to use the crisis to control the population and make them complaint with their preparations for war against Israel.

Syria -

Turkish drones and jets continued to target Kurdish elements in Syria.

There are unconfirmed reports that Kurdish forces have stepped up attacks in southern Turkey in response to the aerial attacks. Syrian oil fields now reportedly being

OBSERVATION – Turks don’t care and their aggression is not solely linked to the Kurds, but pro-Assad forces in the north.

Turkey -

Turkey now also starting to strike oil infrastructure in NE Syria, in particular in this area already faced with severe pollution that is affecting water quality, soil, air and livelihoods of local communities.

Misc of Note -

According to the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the U.S. is experiencing a nationwide shortage of the liquid form of the antibiotic Amoxicillin commonly used in pediatric cases. The shortage is due to increased demand, the FDA said. Three of the top four makers of the antibiotic reported supply issues.

OBSERVATION – I noted this shortage several weeks ago. Only now popping up on national feeds. I expect this to pan out like the ongoing baby formula crisis – shortages for an extended period of time. The liquid Amoxicillin shortage comes at the same time as record RSV and Influenza pediatric cases in the United States. While both are viruses, they can make children susceptible to bacterial infections that would normally be treated with Amoxicillin. A shortage could force medical providers to turn to alternatives or do without.