Posted on 08/12/2016 9:13:28 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
Here are the differences between polls of 2016 and previous polls.
Donald Trump is not like Mitt Romney or John McCain; Trump’s candidacy is THE RESULT of Romney and McCain. The level of hatred for Hillary Clinton among Trump supporters is large enough to give pause to Democrats. They have never seen this much vitriol for one of their candidates. In neither 2008 nor 2012 was there such a massive “movement” of people who hate what is happening to their country.
There were no Email leaks showing the DNC working in collusion with CBS and NBC to manipulate the polls. There were no flat out admissions from the New York Times that they are in fact lying to support Clinton.
So why are the polls wrong?
Above all of these factors is the crash in the percentage of respondents to polls compared with the number of people contacted. Pew conducted an extensive examination of the rates of reply to pollsters over the past several years. Pew found that, just in the period of 2012 to 2014, the response rate fell 23 points from 31% to 8 percent. Moreover, at 31% response Pew found a 24% error rate! There is no reason to believe that the rate of response has grown since 2014.
In short, people know the reporting is faked and don’t want anything to do with it.
For example in a new ABC poll Clinton is winning Black voters 92/2 which means she is doing better than Obama did. To put that in prospective a new poll in North Carolina has Trump getting 32% of the likely Black vote in that state. The fact that North Carolina’s Black voter participation in the...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
Forget the polls. Look at the odds. The gamblers are betting against Trump... the drift has increased in the last 2 weeks. If you believe in Trump, you can make your money 400% in less than 100 days!
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
odds here are 4 to 1 that Crooked Hillary will win. I’ve got a grand on Trump. Won’t matter if I lose, because if Trump loses, it’s all over with anyway:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/839/Will-Donald-Trump-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election#data
Did the mainstream media report the rally for Trump last Sunday in an A.M.E. Church in Charlotte?
Thanks for the tip. :)
hahaha! It’s like betting someone a million dollars that the world won’t end tomorrow. If you lose, the loss of money is the least of your worries. :-)
I have seen people going all in. If you have to take a dive, the time might be now. Cash out and go all in. 4x win-win payoff cannot be bad.
Are there multiple betting site that are giving significantly different odds?
Nope. Hillary is basically 4 times the favorite. Trump is 3 to 4 times the underdog.
Not too surprising, because the people with a brain in their name know that the game is rigged!
where can I get a list of all the sites where I can place a bet?
1. What were the odds on Trump a year ago? A lot less, no? So, the odds can change, and the trend is in the right direction.
2. If I am not mistaken, the betting odds on the Brexit vote, even up to the day before the referendum, were that it would fail.
Have to worry about the electoral vote!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
I am alive enough years to remember that it USED TO BE ‘none of your (*) business who I am voting for, and if you insist on asking, I’ll re-arrange your face’!
Now, with all these wanna-know’s busy-bodying into everybody’s everything, should I be honored with receiving such a call, i either tell them, ahem, (bless ‘um you!), or that i am not voting at all, which really gets their goat.
“These kinds of put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is polls are worrisome. However, two things argue that they are not the last word:”
The only “last word” is the election day. In that day, the voters, or the vote counters, decide who wins or who does not. Until then, it is just speculation. There are lousy speculations and there are speculations that are much better.
“1. What were the odds on Trump a year ago? A lot less, no? So, the odds can change, and the trend is in the right direction.”
Trump went from a 350million-to-one to 3-to-one underdog. So, the trend is indeed good.
“2. If I am not mistaken, the betting odds on the Brexit vote, even up to the day before the referendum, were that it would fail. “
The odds were closer, apparently. This article from April (months before the vote). http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160411-brexit:-the-value-may-be-in-a-close-race
Anyway, the point is that the 2016 presidential odds present a fantastic investment opportunity (4-times return) to those that truly believe in Trump’s victory. Much better than anonymous opinionated polls where nothing is at stake and results can be cooked.
“These kinds of put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is polls are worrisome”
Worrisome that the bettors are correct? Because I think the “common wisdom” in this case is incorrect, hence my bet, and I’m not a betting man. I think the pro-Hillary bettors live in a delusional echo-chamber bubble, particularly the European bettors, which I suspect make up a big chunk of the bettors at predictit.com
I spend WAY more time than I should reading posts at FR, and not just bubble-chamber posts either, but many of the enemedia ones and uber-liberal ones at places like salon and slate, plus reddit, and pretty much just everything else across the spectrum.
Here’s my analysis:
1. It’s my belief that the polls are wrong because the methodology no longer works because most are land-line based, and pretty much anybody remaining with a land line has got every blocker known to mankind. For example, I use voip.ms with noborobo plus a filter for numbers not in my whitelist that hear a recording of my voice saying they must press 1 to reach me. All junk calls have ceased. I occasionally check to see who called, and yesterday one of these blocked calls was from the pollster Marist.
2. People are pissed! And across the political spectrum, too. Large numbers want to blow up D.C.’s insider, politics-as-usual machinations. Therefore 2016 is the ultimate year of the outsider candidate.
3. Not only is Hillary the ultimate insider candidate, she is THE WORST POSSIBLE candidate the Dems could have chosen because of her vast history of criminal conduct for personal enrichment, her inability to personally connect with people on an emotional level, her robotic-like performances, inability to deal with the media in any situation other than one that is nearly 100% controlled by her, and her flagging physical and mental health.
4. I also do feel there’s a groundswell of people who are gonna vote for Trump without talking a whole lot about it beforehand. These include a bunch of Democrats, ranging from pissed Bernie supporters to blue collar Reagan Democrats.
5. Trump supporters are intensely motivated whereas many Hillary supporters are voting for her by default and are simply not very enthusiastic, so voter turnout is likely to favor Trump.
6. While Trump has yet to spend a penny on TV ads, Hillary has spent tens of millions on TV ads already to no avail, has the ultra-rich elite from both sides of the aisle supporting her and opposing Trump, and has the entire enemedia slamming Trump in unprecedented fashion 24x7 in the most blatant and obviously dishonest fashion seen in at least a 100 years, and yet Trump is even in the polls at this point, far better than Reagan polled against Carter at this point in the election.
7. Trump is likely to wipe the floor with Hillary during the debates. I won’t be surprised if she physically collapses or simply refuses to debate.
8. The MANY Hillary scandals are simply not going away, and there’s a VERY high probability that Wikileaks and others will be releasing several more groups of damaging emails stolen from Hillary, the DNC, as well as many as 100 DNC staffers who were directly hacked as well.
9. Economically, this country is not doing well, and LARGE numbers of people have been hurt by Obama polices that have been adopted lock-stock-and-barrel by Hillary, including obamacare (which is a biggie because of the massive new expense for most people combined with the fact that they still cannot receive medical care), trade policies that shoved manufacturing and call-center jobs out of the U.S., and dozens of other job-killing and wage-depressing policies.
10. And speaking of wage-depressing policies, 50 million illegal immigrants are not only taking jobs that citizens could have had, but force the wages down for the remaining employed, as well as getting medical, social, and massive other benefits that even poor citizens cannot obtain.
11. And then there’s the security factor of actively colluding with the Muslim terrorist world instead of wiping them off the face of the planet, and insisting one bring hundreds of thousands of these savages into the U.S. and transplanting them into communities to colonize the U.S. with a savage and foreign religion.
Finally, given all of the above, if the voters of our country DO actually put Hillary in the White House, then our country is too far gone to save it, and losing a bit of money is minuscule compared to the horror that is going to happen to our country in the next four years.
Here’s something else...
Traditional black democrat voters have never had a black man as President for 8 years before. What did it get them? Nothing. It has exposed the Dem lie - that they care for the “poor working person”. No, they just want your votes, that’s all. They never actually DO anything for you.
#BLM is not supporting Hillary. This is not good for her across the black population.
See Brexit odds for context
Betting odds are the most accurate speculation (aka skin-in-the-game) until the election night when the vote counters decide who won.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.