Posted on 02/02/2016 9:20:52 AM PST by jmaroneps37
Last night Texas Senator Ted Cruz won a clear, if small, victory in the Iowa Caucuses. He worked hard and smart to achieve his victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio; hats for off to him.
Iowa is a very different place where different elements add up to victory. At this time it is unclear how Cruz did among the Evangelical voters who turned out in large numbers but they were not the only voters to turn out. Clearly he did well enough with other voters to reach his magic number.
Nevertheless, as the Iowa system works the worst news for both Trump and Rubio will merely be the headline showing them finishing second and third because while Cruz got 8 delegates for his win Trump and Rubio both got 7 delegates for finishing second and third. Now the process moves first to New Hampshire a sharply different type of state where Trump holds a large lead over both Cruz and Rubio.
Trump’s lead is currently larges enough to present a tall order for either or both to overcome and convince voters they deserve to win. The latest average of available polls from New Hampshire, shows Trump with a more than 20 point lead over both men. Can either or both close and beat out Trump in the Granite State? Stranger things have happened but that likelihood is not very great.
Trump ... has amassed a huge fortune during a lifetime of ups and downs. He has apparently been very good at learning from mistakes. He didn’t make too many in Iowa and finished with one delegate less than Cruz.
".. he is a quick study as shown by his ability to come so close on his first try; and a 20 point cushion to enter round two with.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Or Cruz helped create a push toward Rubio for what he said in Iowa.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3391854/posts?page=21#21
No he cannot. Cruz has a better chance of getting hit in a drone strike than winning NH. SC is going to be a climb also. Then Trump will take Nevada and FL. Unless some unknown tsunami strikes.
Yes Trump needs to go after Rubio and hard.
Trump has proven he can learn and adjust...
when Rubio gets his but handed to him in NH he will implode...
I think Cruz will take it better...
but who knows he hasn’t lost yet...
“...while Cruz got 8 delegates for his win Trump and Rubio both got 7. Sort of puts Iowa in perspective. “
Important takeaway is pandering to ethanol isn’t necessary.
Trump was all in on Iowa. His strategy is no different in any other state. Fly in, let the kids walk through the plane and fly out. That was his strategy before this loss.
yeppers that “I’m Ted Cruz and I approve this ad” thingy in his commercials is not going to help him when the info is blatant lies...
Let's see where the polls are by Sunday - there will be some movement, as there always is after the voting actually begins.
I think it is highly unlikely that Trump loses NH. Remember, this is the state that voted for McCain, Romney, etc. They like NE liberals and moderates, so Trump is a natural fit for them. But I expect we will see the gap narrow significantly. I would expect that Trump wins with less than a 10% lead.
Cruz has never counted on a win in NH, but if he can come away with a strong 2nd or 3rd, he goes into SC in good shape.
Which is why Trump is correct in defending himself every chance he is afforded. Unlike W. Trump is an outsider, spent the least amount of money, did not expend energy going to every county and only lost by 3.25 votes per precinct. What he is doing is the only way to beat the two socialists, unfortunately. Cruz worked hard, but Trump brought the voter to vote, which should not be underestimated, nor should the fact that an outsider received the second most votes in Iowa caucus history and spent the least money.
You realize that it will be the same in NH, right? It is also a proportional state. Trump will come out of NH either tied with Cruz in the delegate count, or maybe 1 delegate ahead.
No.
Politics is a complicated tapestry of many things. Winning is clearly a big part, but so is the expectations game. Rubio did well in Iowa by beating expectations. Trump was hurt by not winning, and because he was expected to win, he did not meet expectations.
In New Hampshire, everyone expects Trump to win. He is expected to get between 30 and 35% of the vote. The only way he beats expectations is getting close to the 40% mark, so he will have a win (a very good thing) but he will need to have a huge win to beat expectations.
Cruz and Rubio both need to finish in the top four. Second is a big prize for both of them, because it gives a smaller "win" and if either breaks the 20% mark, they will beat expectations.
We will see in the next few days how the polls are moving, who is sandbagging in order to win the expectations game, and who is going for broke because they need a breakout performance.
My guess is Trump and Cruz both play it safe, they have the most to lose from a big stumble and the least to gain from a big moment. Rubio would love to rally the establishment and drain Bush, Kasich and Christie of votes. That could move him to second place and get him close to the 20% mark.
Bush is going to get desperate. Look for an ill-advised move on his part. Christie will do something that will get attention. Kasich won't, but will try to gain traction at the debate.
Carson is going to hunker down and wait for New Hampshire to blow over. South Carolina will be his Waterloo.
Look for Paul, Fiorina, and Santorum to start dismantling their teams. It's over for them.
And how have the winners of Iowa fared in the past?
Yes, and I did include a caveat about Trump possibly still having a large lead in polling done from today on. He's going to need to be +10 or better to comfortably offset his poor ground game. Will he have it? I have no idea one way or the other.
Yes, and NH has done so well picking conservatives: 1988 and 1992, Bush 41; 1996, Steve Forbes; 2000 and 2008, McCain; 2012, Romney.
And a Reagan channeling conservative to boot! Weird!
He was actually 1 of 3 winners.
DMR’s Seltzer was uneasy with her Trump +4 final - Cruz overperformed by 8 - but I expect she’ll have more confidence with NH.
If Cruz hammers DT with his ‘wasn’t worth it’, that could be good for 3pts, his IA MO should yield 2pts minimum.
What did Seltzer most recently predict for NH?
I think for Cruz it’s a win in Iowa. A respectable showing in New Hampshire. A first or second place finish in South Carolina. And a win in Nevada. That positions him well for Super Tuesday.
It's got the observation I had last night: The Cruz victory was a good one for him, but it may be an outlier in the end. Trump isn't going to stay pat, and he had the best concession speech of them all, showing his acumen.
What I think this blogger doesn't get is how Rubio has the perfect persona for a campaign, telegenic, likable, and speaks well. He also doesn't see the money that Rubio will be awash in for future states. Rubio is the last great hope for the establishment/amnesty/chamber people.
If Rubio gets to second in NH, and then in SC with all that money, I think he'll knock Cruz out before Trump. Rubio is the biggest threat to both candidates (and to conservatives), he's the pretty version of Jeb.
I agree with this guy, that Trump will regroup, and do much better. His ability to see how to change is strong, he's going to try to figure out how to reset on the win track. He only got one less delegate in Iowa where he initially was never supposed to place. New Hampshire, and then South Carolina will give us the true test of the state of the race. They will be key to how the rest will go, not Iowa.
I never thought Cruz stood a chance in the liberal NE.
NH is an establishment state. The establishment choice will likely win.
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