The Frantic Tsunami Warning That No One Ever Heard

An American Expat in Southeast Asia ^ | 27 December 04 | expatguy

[expatguy]

Today in the aftermath of yesterday's catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, it would appear from the following Reuter's news article published yesterday that someone did in fact have ample time to warn people about the tsunami despite the fact that no official warning system is in place.

"In Los Angeles, the head of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said U.S. officials who detected the undersea quake tried frantically to get a warning out about the tsunami."

This presents us all with the obvious disturbing question:

Who were the US officials who tried frantically to get a warning out about the tsunami and how exactly did they do it?

It seems to me that a simple posting on the internet, perhaps a bulletin might have been a step in the right direction, however, the only warning I have been been able to find was the following which stated only that "there is a possibility of a tsunami near the epicenter". Hardly frantic if you ask me.

I have written to both Dr. Laura S.L. Kong and Mr. Charles McCreery asking the question and have yet to hear back.

UPDATE: Since posting this, the original "Tsunami Information Bulletin" has editted and/or changed and no longer has the warning that "there is a possibility of a tsunami near the epicenter". The original warning was on Tsunamil Information Bulletin 01.

[Dog Gone]

Posting tornado warnings in the US on the internet is horribly ineffectual. Perhaps a few folks have programs running on their desktop that will signal an alert while they are busy surfing other sites, but 99.9999% don't.

I used to live in Tornado Alley, and I still live in a tornado-prone area. You get your warnings from TV or radio after you notice the fact that the weather outside looks crazy. Even then, you don't really duck for cover until you hear the sound of a train in the distance.

All of the nations involved with these tsunamis are second or third world countries. A 90 minute warning would never have been conveyed to the people on the coast. A three and one-half day warning might have been helpful.

[Squantos]

Maybe they took the word phuket wrong.......(sorry)

[Drango]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Quake-Warning-System.html?hp&ex=1104210000&en=7c59f9931528faa4&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Officials in Asia Concede That They Failed to Issue Warnings

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 27, 2004

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Filed at 12:12 p.m. ET

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) -- Asian officials conceded Monday that they failed to issue broad public warnings immediately after a massive undersea earthquake in Indonesia, which could have saved countless lives from the subsequent giant waves that smashed into nine countries as far away as Africa.

India said it would consider establishing a warning system, and Australia and Japan said they would help build it. One Australian official said it would take at least a year to set one up. A basic, regional monitoring system would cost tens of million of dollars.

Also, Thailand's Meteorological Department said the country lacked an international warning system and proper coordination to get messages of impending disasters sent across the country.

``If we had the international warning system, we could give real-time warning to people,'' said Seismological Bureau official Sumalee Prachuab.

Governments around the region insisted they did not know the true nature of the threat because there was no international system in place to track tidal waves in the Indian Ocean -- where they are rare -- and they cannot afford to buy sophisticated equipment to build one.

And what warnings there were came too little, too late.

``No one ever told us that these things can be predicted and we can be told about them,'' said Sumana Gamage, a shopowner in Colombo, Sri Lanka. ``Next time I hope our government can do this.''

Retired Sri Lankan air force chief Harry Goonetilleke said, ``There should have been such an arrangement for the region. This is absolutely not acceptable.''

The magnitude 9.0 earthquake -- the largest in 40 years -- shifted huge geological plates beneath the sea northwest of Sumatra island, causing a massive and sudden displacement of millions on tons of water.

Indonesia villages closest to the temblor's epicenter were swamped within minutes, but elsewhere the waves radiated outwards, gathering speed and ferocity until they made landfall. The waves moved at speeds topping 500 mph.

Waves began pummeling southern Thailand about one hour after the earthquake. After 2 1/2 hours, the torrents had traveled some 1,000 miles and slammed India and Sri Lanka. Malaysia, the Maldives, Myanmar, and Bangladesh were also hit. Eventually they struck Somalia, on the east coast of Africa, where hundreds were reported killed.

The death toll Monday topped 22,000, with millions left homeless.

Indonesian officials said they had no way to know that the earthquake had caused the earthquake-driven waves, or tsunamis, or how dangerous they might have been.

``Unfortunately, we have no equipment here that can warn about tsunamis,'' said Budi Waluyo, an official with Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. ``The instruments are very expensive and we don't have money to buy them.''

But Thammasarote Smith, a former senior forecaster at Thailand's Meteorological Department, said governments could have done much more to warn people about the danger.

``The department had up to an hour to announce the emergency message and evacuate people but they failed to do so,'' Thammasarote was quoted as saying in The Bangkok Post newspaper. ``It is true that an earthquake is unpredictable but a tsunami, which occurs after an earthquake, is predictable.''

Kathawudhi Marlairojanasiri, the department's chief weather forecaster, said it issued warnings through radio and television beginning at 9 a.m. Sunday about a possible undertow along the southwest coast of Thailand, where tens of thousands of foreign tourists were vacationing.

But the warnings came after the first waves hit. A Web site warning went up three hours later -- but by then, at least 700 people had died in Thailand, including a jet-skiing grandson of revered monarch King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra refused to answer reporters' questions Tuesday about tsunami alerts.

But Australian Prime Minister John Howard said he would investigate what role his country could play in setting up an Indian Ocean warning system.

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Continued
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~snip

[KC_Conspirator]

That is hilarious, but seemingly true. Bush is also responsible for the homeless problem, which was solved during the years 1992-2000.

[syriacus]

This seems to be an excerpt from an article written in 1986. It is google-cached at THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM, by George Pararas-Carayannis

(Excerpts from an article published in Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Vol. 18, No. 3,, p. 122-130, 1986 NOTE: Since this article was written a number of changes have taken place. More countries have joined the International Tsunami Warning System and more seismic and tidal stations have been added to the network. Look for Updates.)

Several nonmember states and territories maintain stations for the ITWS. The System makes use of 69 seismic stations, 65 tide stations, and 101 dissemination points scattered throughout the Pacific Basin under the varying control of the member states of ITSU. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center at Ewa Beach near Honolulu is operated by the U.S. National Weather Service, Pacific Region (see adjacent NOAA diagram).

Also, a program of preparedness has been developed alerting coastal populations, industries, and Civil Defense agencies to respond to tsunami warnings. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) has the responsibility of coordinating public educational programs for each participating country. ITIC works closely with government agencies, private institutions, and Civil Defense authorities, developing sound coastal management policies which include zoning and planning for coastal areas, as well as standard operating procedures in case of an actual event.[snip]

Finally, the International Tsunami Warning System is one of the most successful international programs ever undertaken involving a multitude of nations with the direct responsibility of mitigating the effects of tsunamis, the saving of lives, and the preservation of property. It is an effective operational program with a direct humanitarian objective-the protection of human lives in the Pacific Ocean coastal areas. The system has been made possible by the generous contributions and participation of the Community of Nations of the Pacific, by IOC's involvement, and by the active and effective coordination of ITIC and of the International Coordination Group.

[expatguy]

A 90 minute warning would never have been conveyed to the people on the coast

Im sorry, but I disagree. I live in Malaysia and I travel to both Phuket and Penang several times a year and am very familar with the beaches in both places.

While a 90 minute warning would not have cleared everyone, it would have cleared many and saved many lives.

[expatguy]

Sorry, but I did not see the humor at all.

I hate be a spoiled sport here, but I have quite a few friends who live in Phuket including an American friend who owns a small guest house and restaurant.

I feel bad about this whole thing because I was following the live thread here on FReerepublic and there was no tsunami warning. I wish there was, because I could have easily picked up the phone and called a few friends and told them "Hey a tsunami is on the way to Phuket." I didn't have that chance.

[syriacus]

From the UNESCO website

http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=73

This is the ITSU-XIX Action Sheet, based upon the ITSU-XIX Summary report, adopted by the Group on 2 October 2003. It provides an overview of the status of implementation of the ITSU-XIX work plan.

ACTION SHEET ITSU-XIX (LAST UPDATE ON 25 November 2004). Note: status as per 25/11/04 was discussed at 2004 Officers Meeting (6-10 December 2004, ITIC Honolulu)  

6.  REGIONAL AND OTHER TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEMS
6.1   NORTHWEST PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM
190       The Group regretted that there are currently no seismic stations available for tsunami warning close to the Philippines and Indonesia, although data are needed in that region. It was noted however, that there are 2 CTBTO (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization) stations in the Philippines and 6 in Indonesia. The Group requested the countries owning the stations to make them available for tsunami and earthquake warning purposes.
Action: Chair
Deadline: March 2004
Status: No action - 8 April 2004: Chair will send text by endof April. Secretariat to send letter. - 22/9/04: Postponed: Chair will submit text in October.
Status 25/11/04: Chair will report during Dec 2004 Officers Meeting.[snip]

6.3   

215    The Group adopted Recommendation ITSU-XIX.4 (WORKING GROUP ON THE TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEAN)
Action: Working Group
Deadline: ITSU-XX
Status: Ongoing. 8 April 2004: secretariat reminded Mr Ibnu Purwana. 22/9/04: New Indonesia contact is Dr Mastur Masturyono.
Status 25/11/04: To be discussed at Dec 2004 Officers Meeting

[kingu]

FYI - All three warnings are on: http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu/contents.php?id=136

This, however, is the interesting piece from that website.. A graphic of how the waves spread from the epicenter and how most of the waves struck at virtually the same time...

[nhoward14]

Understanding the history of the place, where nobody has any written record of anything like this happening before, I am not surprised people in the region didn't think about it.

Civilized countries or not, there is no way that with 2 hours warning they can get the message and implement a plan. If anything, a hastily issued warning would just cause mass panic and likely cause more deaths.

[AlexW]

"Posting tornado warnings in the US on the internet is horribly ineffectual. Perhaps a few folks have programs running on their desktop that will signal an alert while they are busy surfing other sites, but 99.9999% don't."

I use to use "Weatherbug" which did a fabulous job with weather alerts, but I found out that it is one of the most corrupt of all spyware garbage programs, so I deleted it.

[expatguy]

Civilized countries or not, there is no way that with 2 hours warning they can get the message and implement a plan. If anything, a hastily issued warning would just cause mass panic and likely cause more deaths.

I'd like to see you tell someone who lost loved ones or someone that lost their business that they should entrust their lives and their livelihoods to government bureaucracy.

Still, if your life depended on it, would you like to have that two hour notice?

You seem to be suggesting that in retrospect, it was best not to give a bulletin or warning.

[Dog Gone]

Im sorry, but I disagree. I live in Malaysia and I travel to both Phuket and Penang several times a year and am very familar with the beaches in both places.

While a 90 minute warning would not have cleared everyone, it would have cleared many and saved many lives.

I can't speak for the folks at Phuket, but I was at the beach in Mexico when this earthquake occurred. Had a similar warning been sent to Mexico City, I am sure it would have gotten to us at the beach by next weekend.

[x]

How common are these things? I learned about them as a kid, and maybe saw something on a PBS special since then, but haven't heard or seen the word used in years. If I remembered the word, I'd probably have associated it with science fiction, rather than with a real danger.

It seems like it would take a certain about of explaining to make clear to the public just what the danger was. Is this a case of scientists not quite being on the same wavelength as the public?

[nhoward14]

I can't put my life into this. I live in the United States in Texas. I am used to thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes and ice. I've been educated about the dangers these events represent and what to do if threatened by one.

Assuming the statements made on TV over the weekend that tsunamis are not widely known of, nor prepared for, in the region, a broadcast warning to "Move to higher ground. You have two hours to get there and save your life." would incite confusion rather than controlled movement. All you need is a few people to start panicking and the crowd turns into an uncontrollable mob.

Not only do people get hurt and likely killed in the hysteria, you get more people clogging the escape routes and potentially in danger who may have been safer where they were to begin with.

All this is widely known in the emergency response field. The biggest obstacle in a successful emergency plan is educating the public about how to evacuate properly so you don't kill more people than the coming danger would have killed anyway.

Your response is your human instinct to flee when you cannot fight coming through. The problem is when you get 100,000 people running uncontrolled it is just like any other stampede. The minute somebody starts not being able to keep up the pace or falls down, the carnage begins.

[syriacus]

How common are these things?

They do occur in that part of the world.

http://www.worldinfozone.com/facts.php?country=Bangladesh

In 1991 a tsunami wave killed one hundred and thirty-eight thousand people in Bangladesh.

[solitas]

G: wow. that's one hell of an image. I'd be interested if anyone ever puts-up a video of the initial wave landing anywhere.

K: thanks! I was looking-around for something like that - someone said there was a site that computer modeling of wavefronts; but I hadn't found anything.

[solitas]

It's sounds like they are only warning the Pacific, not the Indian Ocean. Sheesh, you'd think before India bought another Russian sub or ran another nuclear test, they'd have some rudimentary system in place, if nothing more than monitoring the USGC website for earthquakes in the "Indian" Ocean.

Why is it the responsibility of the U.S. to warn them anyway?

All they need is an internet connection and to pay someone to look for stuff like this. Also: you should know by now that it's the USA's responsibility to blow noses and wipe @$$e$ for everyone all over the world. We're considered "the great Satan" and "the great Santa" at the same time.

[Jack Deth]

Sorry Guys:

The Pacific SOSUS (Underwater Acoustic Sensor) Line travels only so far. And not that far beyond Peral Harbor. The movie "Around The World Under The Sea" was just a movie. Not reality.

Jack.

[Drango]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/27/science/27science.html

With No Alert System, Indian Ocean Nations Were Vulnerable
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: December 27, 2004

The earthquake that struck northwest of Sumatra, Indonesia, at dawn yesterday was a perfect wave-making machine, and the lack of a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean essentially guaranteed the devastation that swept coastal communities around southern Asia, experts said.

Although waves swamped parts of the Sumatran coast and nearby islands within minutes, there would have been time to alert more distant communities if the Indian Ocean had a warning network like that in the Pacific, said Dr. Tad Murty, an expert on the region's tsunamis who is affiliated with the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.

Within 15 minutes of the earthquake, in fact, scientists running the existing tsunami warning system for the Pacific, where such waves are far more common, sent an alert from their Honolulu hub to 26 participating countries, including Thailand and Indonesia, that destructive waves might be generated by the Sumatra tremors.

But there was no way to convey that information speedily to countries or communities an ocean away, said Dr. Laura S. L. Kong, a Commerce Department seismologist and director of the International Tsunami Information Center, an office run under the auspices of the United Nations.

Phone calls were hurriedly made to countries in the Indian Ocean danger zone, she said, but not with the speed that comes from pre-established emergency planning.

"Outside the Pacific these things don't occur very often at all so the challenge is how to make people and government officials aware," she said.

Tsunamis, sometimes referred to as tidal waves but having nothing to do with tidal forces, are generated when an earthquake, eruption or landslide abruptly moves the seabed, jolting the waters above.

Resulting waves can cross thousands of miles of deep ocean at near jetliner speeds as near-invisible disturbances before welling up in shallower coastal waters to heights of 30 feet or more.

But even at such speeds, prompt warnings can provide ample time to evacuate people, Dr. Murty and other experts said. The Pacific network of stations gauging wave and earthquake activity is able to alert potential targets within minutes.

Tsunamis have swept the Indian Ocean, as well, oceanographers said yesterday, noting one that killed several hundred people near Bombay in 1945 and another - one of the earliest tsunamis recorded in the region - that ravaged what is now Bangladesh and other parts of the Bay of Bengal in 1762.

With population densities enormously high in many parts of coastal southern Asia, the region should have started setting up such a network long ago, said Dr. Murty, who is originally from India.

Other scientists have voiced similar concerns. At a meeting in June of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, a United Nations body, experts concluded that the "Indian Ocean has a significant threat from both local and distant tsunamis" and should have a warning network.

But Dr. Murty said India, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries in the region "see this as a Pacific problem."

"I have a feeling that after this tragedy that may change," he said.

The earthquake near Sumatra was the fifth most potent in the world in the last 100 years and the worst in 40 years, registering a magnitude of 9.0. It was followed by more than a dozen aftershocks, but none of those were expected to produce dangerous waves, federal geologists said.

The quake occurred at one of the many seams in the ever-shifting crust of the earth where one plate slips beneath another in an incessant, but spasmodic process. In this case, the quake was set off by an abrupt slippage along 700 miles of the seam where the plate beneath the Indian ocean slides under the Indonesian archipelago.

This caused a vast stretch of seabed to shift about 50 feet, said geologists at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colo.

The biggest danger from earthquakes on land tends to come when the earth heaves horizontally, as is the case along the San Andreas fault in California. But faults where earthquakes tend to cause abrupt vertical motion, like the ones along western Indonesia, pose the biggest risk of generating tsunamis because they can act like a giant piston, deforming the sea. In such submarine earthquakes, gravity and the incompressibility of water force the seas above to react immediately to the change thousands of feet below.

"You're taking hundreds of miles of ocean bottom and moving it dozens of feet," said David Wald, a seismologist at the center. "That displaces a huge amount of water. The water at the surface starts to shift downhill and that makes a tsunami."

Most research on such waves and efforts to create warning systems have focused on the Pacific, where the Ring of Fire, a great arcing seam of volcanic and tectonic activity, causes a significant tsunami about once a decade.

One of the first efforts to alert communities to impending tsunamis came in Hawaii in the 1920's, said Dr. George D. Curtis, a tsunami expert affiliated with the University of Hawaii at Hilo.

A geologist at Hawaii's volcano observatory, upon detecting telltale tremors, would call local harbor officials and tell them to have boats moved to safety, Dr. Curtis said. Efforts greatly intensified in 1946, after a powerful earthquake in the Aleutian island chain of Alaska unexpectedly sent waves smashing into Hawaii, killing more than 150 people.

In 1948, the United States created its Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, which has been linked to an international data and warning network since 1965.

Any underwater earthquake with a magnitude greater than 6.5 starts the process, Dr. Murty said, and if a single wave gauge signals that the ocean is reacting, an alert is issued. But there has been little work done outside the Pacific, other than informal discussions, to expand the tsunami monitoring network.

"There's no reason for a single individual to get killed in a tsunami," Dr. Murty said. "The waves are totally predictable. We have travel-time charts covering all of the Indian Ocean. From where this earthquake happened to hit, the travel time for waves to hit the tip of India was four hours. That's enough time for a warning."