Free Republic

U.S. scientists are predicting we will soon enjoy precision climate modeling, offering detail and scale only imagined a few years ago. John Drake and David Erickson at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's computer science and mathematics division say it's possible for scientists to create meteorological models that take into account such things as the complete carbon cycle, terrestrial biology, El Ninos and hundreds of other factors. The goal is to provide what scientists call a fully integrated Earth system model that can be simulated every 15 minutes for centuries. "Before, we had to make compromises that ultimately limited the resolution...

As many of you here in West Virginia know, Senator Byrd's wife died recently. And that he was married for 55+ years. Which means the 6-month rule may come into play: i.e. with long, stable marriages, spouses often die within 6 months of each other. . . Which, in turn, means we may well be looking at an Open Seat, come November, or, alternately, Senator Byrd dying AFTER filing/nominating dates close: the "Missouri" scenario that bit John Ashcroft. So, putting on my old hat as a contingency planner (acquired while I was in the Air Force). . . . what...

Two days ago, I began to discuss what I believe to be the best way to predict congressional elections. Developed first by Edward Tufte and later refined by Gary Jacobson, the “Tufte/Jacobson theory” is starting point I have chosen. It argues that we can predict the outcome of a congressional election based upon three factors: exposure, presidential job approval and changes in real disposable income per capita (RDI/cap). It is time to supply the details, supplement the theory with some extra concerns, and make a prediction for 2006.Exposure is the extent to which the party of the President is above...

It seems like an attack on Iran is coming soon. Place your bet as to when the attack will begin. Whoever gets closest to the date and time wins. Attack time must be specified in Month, Day, Year, Hour, and Minute For the hour, don't forget to specify what time zone you are referring to. There is no decision on a prize to be awarded yet except for bragging rights.

CIA Leak Will Blow Up in Democrat Faces November 3, 2005 BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: As many of you know, I have been suspicious of this whole Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame Niger CIA story for a long time, and I wouldn't be surprised -- I can't make the allegation but I wouldn't be surprised -- if before this is all over we learn that the whole thing was an attempted coup, if you will, to send this guy Wilson over to Niger to purposely undermine the Bush war on terror and the Bush administration and hopefully have an effect on...

The prophetic prognosticators are at the prediction game again. Greg Laurie, author of Are We Living in the Last Days?,” is peering through contemporary events like Hurricane Katrina, earthquakes, 9–11, and the tsunami that struck Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004 and claiming that these events are a prelude to the “rapture” of the church. George Noory, host of “Coast to Coast AM,” follows a similar line of thought. “I don't think there’s any doubt. I think we’re really in [the end times].” We’ve read about similar predictions for centuries. Nearly 20 centuries of predictions of the end have yellowed...

Where was the Mayor of New Orleans and what was he doing Friday night while the storm threatened the city? The National Hurricane Center issues periodic forcast tracks for tropical storms and hurricanes. By Friday afternoon it became clear New Orleans was in harm's way. And by Friday night a direct hit was likely.Yet the Mayor did very little until Sunday, when he finally ordered a manditory evacuation. Of all the persons most interested in the safety of the people of New Orleans, the Mayor should have been the most interested. Yet Friday night, when he should have been planning...

PASADENA, Calif. - California residents wondering if tomorrow's forecast will be sunny now can find out if there's also a chance of afternoon tremors. For the first time, they can check a daily earthquake forecast on the Internet just as easily as they check the weather. The Web site, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey, is updated hourly and calculates the probability of strong ground shaking at specific locations over a 24-hour period. The program is not meant to predict when the "Big One" will occur nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate. Most of the maps...

Clarion Call To Avert West Coast Disaster Burdell Austin For several years many of you have been getting words of warning, dreams, and visions of an earthquake and tsunami in this region [U.S. West Coast]. I join many who sense it is time to mobilize an army of worshiping warriors, who will go before the Lord in humility for those sins committed on the land that give legal right to the adversary to perform acts of violence. As we hear from the Lord regarding specific repentance needed to cleanse the land, we will then have the blood-bought authority of the...

HONG KONG, April 12 (RIA Novosti's Mark Zavadsky) - In the coming three decades, Russia is going to rank third or fourth in the world in terms of the economic growth. The forecast was voiced by Jonathan Anderson, the former IMF representative in Russia and investment research center managing director of Swiss finance group UBS, in his interview with RIA Novosti. In the coming decades, Russia will rival Brazil for the third position in the world as far as the economic growth rate is concerned, trailing only China and India, Anderson said. According to him, Russia can definitely count on...

Eleven days ago, a team of earthquake experts published a scientific paper precisely describing how the titanic tsunami-generating earthquake off Sumatra on Dec. 26 greatly raised risks of a fresh offshore earthquake. The earthquake they described was almost exactly like the one that struck yesterday. The paper's authors and other experts had calculated how the December shock increased stress on the adjacent section of the Sunda Trench, a seam in the earth's crust where one plate dives beneath another. The pressure greatly increased the chance that the seam would fail, they said. The new earthquake was generated when the plates...

Scientist foresaw Sumatran quake Research showed area was ripe for temblor By Kimm Groshong , Staff WriterArticle Published: Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 8:25:08 PM PST PASADENA -- When the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resultant tsunami devastated Sumatra and much of the Bay of Bengal on Dec. 26, Kerry Sieh's premonition became a nightmarish reality. The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict. He had tried to get the word out...

If only people had been warned. An hour's notice for those living and vacationing along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean might have saved thousands of lives. But predictions, and acting on them, are not simple, geoscience experts say. "It's an inexact science now," said Dr. Laura S. L. Kong, a Commerce Department seismologist and director of the International Tsunami Information Center, an office in Honolulu run under the auspices of the United Nations. According to a NASA Web site devoted to tsunamis, three of four tsunami warnings issued since 1948 have been false, and the cost of the false...

Indian scientists recently found a scientific method of predicting earthquakes quite accurately. The great quake of Sumatra along Andaman fault line on December 26th, could have been predicted if the world would have taken these scientists seriously. If this theory is true, we are in for many mega earthquakes soon. When two or more planets, moon and earth and sun come in one line, these mega earthquakes happen. The sun influences the rotation of earth. Now imagine you are in a train or bus. If all on a sudden the driver pushes the brake, you tend to move forward...

Some knew it was comingE SARAVANAN Chennai, Dec 27:   N Venkatanath, research scholar, and N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor, Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.  Photo: A Prathap         The memories and the trauma caused by the tidal wave that washed out parts of coastal Chennai and other parts of the State yesterday will haunt the minds of the people for a long time to come.         It is a tough task to forget the damage left behind by the wave that was triggered by an earthquake in far off Indonesia. The Richter scale recorded the quake to...

Stunned Dems, jubilant GOP look for lessons By Peter Savodnik November 4, 2004 Americans want gutsy, unwavering leadership on the war on terrorism, judges who won’t make laws, energy independence and a government that cuts taxes and spends less of their money. Above all, they want a president and a Congress that will lead the world and not be led by world opinion. Those were some of the lessons an emboldened Republican Party took away from Tuesday night’s election results, as the GOP held on to the White House for another four years and padded its House and Senate majorities....

I posted my state by state election prediction on F R very early the morning (12:24am) of the election. I found a couple of typos and posted the corrections (post #12) before 2am.

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism. For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right. First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and...

I had to add this to the political humor category due to her silly comment: After reviewing the final data from the GW-Battleground Poll, Lake made the following prediction: "If Republicans ARE successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout: 49.9% for Kerry to 49.4% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other. However, if Republicans are NOT successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout, then we would predict a slightly larger margin for Kerry: 50.7% for Kerry to 48.6% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other".

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4% Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2% Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory. Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it...