Posted on 05/18/2005 1:08:00 PM PDT by BenLurkin
PASADENA, Calif. - California residents wondering if tomorrow's forecast will be sunny now can find out if there's also a chance of afternoon tremors.
For the first time, they can check a daily earthquake forecast on the Internet just as easily as they check the weather.
The Web site, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey, is updated hourly and calculates the probability of strong ground shaking at specific locations over a 24-hour period. The program is not meant to predict when the "Big One" will occur nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate.
Most of the maps will show that the chances of a significant shaking are pretty slim most of the time. USGS seismologist Matthew Gerstenberger said the site would probably be most useful after a strong temblor that has caused significant damage. Since aftershocks are likely in those situations, residents can log online and check for the possibility of more jolting in their area.
Details appear in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature.
California residents already can view real-time earthquake maps with the click of a mouse, but those are usually posted and updated within minutes of a temblor occurring. Now they can click on real-time, color-coded maps that provide earthquake probabilities in a specific region. Areas shaded in red represent a high chance of strong shaking within the next 24 hours (less than a 1 in 10 chance) while those in blue represent a very remote chance, say, more than 1 in a million.
"If there's a red spot, then make sure you've done what you need to do in terms of earthquake preparedness," Gerstenberger said.
The earthquake forecast maps are created by considering a variety of factors, including monitoring the San Andreas Fault and other active faults in California with seismic instruments. Scientists also factor in any recent history of small and large temblors as well as aftershocks, on those same faults.
In an accompanying commentary, Duncan Agnew of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, noted that the latest forecast maps give earthquake victims a "much more precise answer" about the risk of aftershocks after a strong tremor. Agnew, who was not part of the project, also said he would like to see the same method applied to other earthquake-stricken countries around the world.
Ping
That's like saying a chance of rain in Seattle.
The chances of this setting off a completely unwarranted mass panic are a lot greater than the chances of experiencing "The Big One".
Thnaks for that. Glad to have moved from a deep yellow region to a dark blue area to raise my kids.
I used to think Earthquakes were kind of cool growing up in the San Fernando Valley, but once you've ridden out a 7.0 at the epicenter with a newborn baby in your arms, that all changes.
Shouldn't confuse the map posted on the thread with a long-term earthquake hazard map; being in a blue area on the forecast map for tomorrow doesn't mean there isn't a high risk of a strong quake in the next five years.
Track when Michael Moore is in the area. I'm sure his girth could set off a few tremors.
Yeah I tell my wife that all the time. I majored in geology for the frist three of my many years in college.
There is something called "earthquake weather"...quakes seem to happen when it is a hot day.
Next thing will be the "Earthquake Channel".
Thanks...now how are they doing this...hmmmm?
They are basically predicting quakes where there has been recent activity?
It's kind of a pretty map, though.
Sounds anecdotal to me. I'll tell you what, it was butt-ass cold the morning of the Northridge quake in 1994, as well as the Sylmar quake in 1971.
I've got it bookmarked to favorites!
Where did you get the pic from, mate?
I was visiting for a few weeks, and happened to be in a pub in downtown Los Gatos when The Quake of 89 hit. Not one of My favourite experiences, especially being without power for three days afterwards -and having My-then Cage being unexpectedly 'customised' by a brick chimney collapsing. Fortunately while I was nowhere near it...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.