Probability of easy Bush Win-91%

The Horserace Blog (Jay Cost) ^ | 11/1/2004 | Jay Cost

[KrazyEyezKillah]

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html

Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4% Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2%

Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory.

Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it is indeed Bush 306 or 327 to Kerry 232 or 211.

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html

[KrazyEyezKillah]

Read the whole thing from Jay. He pulls out shady poll numbers (without cherry picking) and comes up with a clear poll snapshot. W. is up big and will win. Don't let MSM spin bamboozle anyone.

It's easy going to the polls knowing that W. is a lock. Remind everyone to be confident, with good reason. Continue to get out the vote and seal the deal.

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html

[trebb]

Sounds good to me - the polls in S. MS open in about an hour and a half and my wife and I will be in line to do our last little part.

God Bless everyone at FR for the awesome job they do.

[agincourt1415]

Fox News and Split Screen of Dan Rather in MELT DOWN about 9 pm EST.

[MEG33]

I enjoy reading his site...Right now all I know to say is don't fail to vote and encourage other supporters to do the same...

http://pages.sbcglobal.net/bommer/W.html

[PilloryHillary]

VOTE!

[Darkwolf377]

I have a feeling that W supporters won't blow off voting due to his popular vote loss last time--they have a stake in getting those numbers up. I think we're gonna see how soft Kerry's support is--if your voters aren't enthused about you they probably won't spend hours online for you...especially seeing the support for W surging.

[LibLieSlayer]

Yep, my wife and I will be voting in S. MS also! See you there! ON TO VICTORY!!!

LLS

[PhotoFixer3]

Watch this new PhotoFixer3 Release of Kerry lies! Video less than 1MB !

[Aussie Dasher]

Comforting, but take nothing for granted.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE GET OUT THE VOTE! RE-ELECT THE PRESIDENT!

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

V-O-T-E VOTE... and make a DUer cry tonight. :)

[Senator Goldwater]

You get the sense that this is 2002 all over again.

[AHerald]

Is your nick taken from Curb Your Enthusiasm?

[garyhope]

I'm voting for Bush today like my life depends on it. I wouldn't miss voting for Bush if I had to crawl on broken glass through a hurricane. I think it's that important.

I want to spit in the face of every single Democrat and European whom I now loathe and despise and regard as insane, cowards, traitors and fruitcakes. It's that bad.

Sorry, but I thin Islam and it's commie allies and 5th columnists is out to destroy America and freedom.

[itsinthebag]

Mom and I are on the way out the door to vote for Dubya here in dem country, Washington, D.C. God bless President Bush!

[StACase]

W. is a lock

Kerry's going to be swept into office on a storm tide of fraud, lawsuits and violence.

[Always Right]

Analysis like this is only as good as the polls that go into them. Unfortunately the polls aren't all that good and there was some bias in the selection of polls used here. This race is way to close to call with Bush having only a slight advantage.

[Stateline]

Good night John and Teresa....Sit still and weep at your passing fame....don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!!!!

[Northern Yankee]

Kerry's going to be swept into office on a storm tide of fraud, lawsuits and violence.

Oh man... go back to bed. Ain't gonna happen!

[SaintDismas]

I really like that guy Jay Cost. He not only knows the poll numbers and which polls are bogus and why, he knows voter registration numbers down to the precinct. Feelin good here. :)

[joeystoy]

We were out at 6AM to vote for G.W. just outside of NYC in Long Island.

Commenting on the weekend polling anomaly: The bedrock of Dubya's support is (intact) families with children.

For us (married for 32 years with an 11 year old daughter and 14 year old son) our weekend, starting Friday and continuing through Sunday night had 6th Grade Girls basketball, GU-12 Soccer, BU-15 Soccer, High School Boys Cross Country, Church services and Sunday Dinner at Grandma and Grandpa, with aunts, uncles and cousins (one more coming soon).

The chances of a pollster contacting us is zero.

Our Sunday dinner poll of RVs had Dubya winning 54.5% to 45.5% going to sKerry. This poll was conducted in Queens, New York and has an MOE of zero. The internals show under 30 voters breaking for Bush by a 2-1 margin with sKerry getting 100% of the Social Security vote. Homeowners also favor Bush by 2-1 while married but living with parents went 100% for sKerry. Voters with Doctoral degrees went 100% for Bush.