Posted on 04/12/2005 9:28:41 AM PDT by jb6
HONG KONG, April 12 (RIA Novosti's Mark Zavadsky) - In the coming three decades, Russia is going to rank third or fourth in the world in terms of the economic growth. The forecast was voiced by Jonathan Anderson, the former IMF representative in Russia and investment research center managing director of Swiss finance group UBS, in his interview with RIA Novosti.
In the coming decades, Russia will rival Brazil for the third position in the world as far as the economic growth rate is concerned, trailing only China and India, Anderson said.
According to him, Russia can definitely count on a 4-5% growth rate at the time specified.
"If the government succeeds in creating the conditions favoring small business and the sectors of economy other than raw materials production, the medium-term economic growth rate forecast might be increased to 5-7% per annum," the expert stressed.
Anderson underlined that Russia should not place emphasis on production of raw materials, because according to economic estimates, raw materials prices were to drop soon.
"According to our estimates, oil prices have peaked and will start dropping soon to have reached $40-45 per barrel by the year-end," he said.
Now, a barrel of oil costs more than $53 at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
Anderson is believed to be a top international economy expert in the world. Before taking the job in IMF's Moscow office (1998-2001), he had headed the fund's China office in Beijing for three years. At present, he is the head of UBS's investment outfit for the Asia-Pacific area.
"Anderson underlined that Russia should not place emphasis on production of raw materials, because according to economic estimates, raw materials prices were to drop soon."
Bull! They have VAST resources and they intend to exploit them. All they need is the roads/RR to get to them.
I don't think you can take this at face value. Russia is going to leverage the sale of its pollution credits from Kyoto to increase its economic growth. With a little economic manipulation and mumbo-jumbo, they will suddenly become an "economic growth leader", even though it is unlikely that any real economic growth will occur.
Here Mr. Roulette man ... place this hundred thousand on RED.
Give that man a cigar!
This is just like those ridiculous CIA estimates of USSR economic output that Reagan didn't believe.
After short thought..what do these geeks think makes for economic growth? They tend to think that money comes from nothing. How do they think that Russia is going to expand without any Mining, Logging and Farming? Without any one of those three they will not expand economically. All Russia has to do is create the capitalist atmosphere to get going. Which, it appears they are about to screw up real fast.
The country never ceases to amaze me. They can become the richest country ever on the planet and they continue to mess it all up at very turn.
They have a 13% flat tax on income. Very simple and worker friendly. Also when you start at the bottom of the economic spectrum, it's hard not to have steady growth for the forseeable future. As long as the old guard commie/socialists stay out of the way.
I don't think so.
Losing most of their military on the plain of Megido attacking Issrael should cost them quite a lot. I think they will be one of the most devastated countries on the planet.
They dont have to. Ever check on how many base industry workers have left here and moved operations to over there? I talked to many that say over 200 loggers from the US alone..and more will be leaving soon. Not many I know, but each are big jobbers and produce in excess of 1000 green tons of roundwood a day. Thats a lot of material my friend and it will all come back here to be sold and already is. Then think on this. Russia is aside China which is the prime place to be for exporting raw materials..as far as many are concerned.
Time will tell.
Actually they've been working towards it for a long time: observe: 13% flat tax, 24% corporate tax (14% for IT), no sales tax, 1/3rd off the VAT and 1/2 off the Payroll. They've been trying to streamline government for small business initiation...of course this is turning out to be a lot harder, as bureaucracies are resilient and evil creatures. They have also paid off almost all their external debts and have kept a deficit free government for 5 years.
BUMP
Hay what ever happened to that Jamacan chick? I can't even remember her name but her infomercials were everywhere.
If Russia is going to be a leader in economic growth and development over the next 30 years, they had better get going. Despite the plentiful availability of raw materials and a reasonably well-trained work force, there is insufficient capital concentrated on crucial areas to develop into a real boom economy.
Of course, a little vision and encouragement from the right place could just get this fire lighted.
Unfortunately the George Soros of the world have sucked all the oxygen out of a number of these developing countries, by speculating on, then dumping, large chunks of their currency. Then the proceeds are used to try to throw the Bush Administration out of office and fight efforts to reform the UN.
What's the real Russia? Moscow is 10% of the population. That's like saying: having been to the real America: West Virginia, Arkansas and Mississippi.
I've got news for you, we've already succeeded in our own schools.
You can come back to reality now.
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