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For your enjoyment. This is a link to the 2012 results from the LATimes Daybreak poll. 2012 Compared to 2016 2012 --- https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/2012-RAND-Presidential-Election-Daybreak-Poll-e1475424220560.png 2016 --- http://cesrusc.org/election/

The Voters Have Not Been Kind to Pollsters Since 2002 By Jim Geraghty November 5, 2012 7:18 A.M. From the final Morning Jolt before Election Day: A Quick Trip Down the Memory Lane of Recent PollingSo a lot of people who don’t read me that closely are going to look at what follows and interpret it as “Jim’s saying the polls are always wrong.” That’s not what I’m saying, but I’m prefacing all of this with that prediction, because we’ve all seen that when people don’t like what you have to say, they attempt to cut off discussion by calling...

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Updated 10:10 AM ET on Nov. 6 Electoral Vote Barack Obama 313.0 Mitt Romney 225.0 Chance of winning Barack Obama 90.9% Mitt Romney 9.1% ...

For the first time since we started the poll, Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible. Romney continues to hold a significant 6-point advantage with independents and a 14-point edge with investors. Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008. Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll.

If the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and

The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29): Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans. A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls. Tweeters were in a state of disbelief: Jon Ortega @dc_jon I heard CNN's national poll is sampled with D+11. When will this insanity and...

Hope you like this NPR/Democracy Corps poll, because it may be the last national poll we see for a while.  With Hurricane Sandy battering the upper Northeast, polling in the region will be impossible until at least the weekend, and possibly through Election Day.  Without access to that part of the electorate, national polls will be undeniably incomplete.  From here on in, it’s going to be nothing but battleground-state polling. So why not wrap up national polling on a high note?  In this survey conducted at least in part by James Carville’s group, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by a...

New reports indicate that the 2012 presidential campaign is coming to Pennsylvania. After a spate of advertising during the summer, Pennsylvania — in a break from tradition — has largely avoided the volume of campaign commercials that states like Ohio and Virginia have seen. But beginning Tuesday, Restore Our Future, a “super-PAC” supporting Mitt Romney, will blanket Pennsylvania with about $2 million worth of advertisements. President Obama’s advisers greeted that news on Monday by saying that the Obama campaign would also spend advertising money in the Keystone State between now and Election Day. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state...

Click on the link below for the analysis. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/ There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney. It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results. I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political...

Part II – Media Polls – What Are They Good For? Let me start by drawing a quick distinction that I think is important – no one should confuse a public pollster who publishes results like Gallup or Rasmussen with a media sponsored poll that is, of course, made public. So when I’m speaking of media polls here I’m talking about polls paid for by “news” outlets. The first and most salient point is that a news outlet could get private polling data for its own edification about a race – either from a campaign or on their own. But...

Florida and its important 29 electoral votes are all but in the Romney camp, according to Sunshine State News poll of likely voters taken mostly following the third and final presidential debate. But the parties still have a big challenge ahead in their ground games. Early voting begins Saturday in Florida. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pushed above the 50 percent mark in the poll conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24 by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service. Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama. Only 12 percent...

· President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent. · Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent. Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party. · There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women. · Iowans are divided nearly equally on whether they approve of President Obama’s job performance. 47 percent approve of his performance while 46 percent do not...

Part I: Real Pollsters Who Work for Campaigns As we enter the homestretch of this election and we all hang by every thread of polling data, I thought I would share some insights into polling data that I have gleaned from being involved in elections for the past 26 years. Some of this content has been provided by smart posters here, and by other folks like Jay Cost at the Weekly Standard. But some content might surprise you and hopefully allow you to discern between good polls and bad ones, when to be concerned, when to be skeptical and above...

While this topic has been covered, it is now time to put real “meat on the bones” to explain why polling in this year’s presidential contest, not just nationally but in many of the battleground states, may be off when compared to the actual results. Looking at a vast array of polls coming out just two weeks before the presidential election, critically important states such as Florida and Ohio appear to be close and anyone’s guess as to the final result. And while some national surveys, such as Gallup, have shown Republican nominee Mitt Romney running ahead of President Obama...

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election. An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election. Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were...

WASHINGTON | Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:06pm EDT (Reuters) - Republican candidate Mitt Romney was 1 percentage point ahead of President Barack Obama in Wednesday's Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll in a presidential race that is effectively a dead heat less than two weeks before the November 6 election. In a reversal of Tuesday's results, Romney led Obama among likely voters by 47 percent to 46 percent, a statistically insignificant margin, in the four-day online tracking poll.

R-51% O-45%

A newly discovered report from Pew (it was hidden since last winter) contains some interesting data on the veracity of survey respondents. Horror of horrors, Pew has actually said unequivocally that some people who speak to pollsters lie! Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, flatly accuses 60% of those who answer their surveys by saying they are “registered voters” are lying and are falsely claiming to be registered voters. Pew also found that “likely voters” are not always telling the truth and point to the statistical impossibility of more “likely voters” in their surveys than actually recorded...

Since my other thread got deleted, I'll repost. On O'Reily tonight Suffolk University pollster said they will no longer be doing any polls in FL, NC or VA since they're clearly going to Romney. Going to poll in states that are still up for grabs. Interesting stuff.

PPP's first national poll of 2012 finds Barack Obama with his best standing against Mitt Romney since last May, right after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama leads Romney 49-44. It's not as if Obama's suddenly become popular. He remains under water with 47% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. Romney's even less popular, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him. Over the last month Romney's seen his negatives with independents rise from 46% to 54%, suggesting that the things he has to say and do to win the...