Iowa: O 50 R 46. (RIDICULOUS D+6 sample)

Gravis Marketing ^ | 10/26/12

[KansasGirl]

· President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.

· Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent. Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party.

· There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women.

· Iowans are divided nearly equally on whether they approve of President Obama’s job performance. 47 percent approve of his performance while 46 percent do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.

[KansasGirl]

Sample. D 41, R 35, I 24 Women 53, Men 47

2008 Exit Poll D 34, R 33, I 33

2004 Exit Poll D 34, R 36, I 30

If these numbers hold, Romney WINS Iowa. I seriously doubt the turnout will be Rat + 6 when even in 2008 it was only D +1!

[KC_Conspirator]

Laughable on its face. So they are telling us that the electorate will be 41% D, when in FACT its never been over 34%?!!! Are you effing kidding me?

[goldstategop]

I agree it makes no sense! Democratic turnout in reality, will either be even or 1+. Romney will win IA.

The MSM has to go to farcical lengths to make O appear still viable.

[apillar]

There is going to be a lot of shocked pollsters and media on election day. They insist on using these models based on 2008 turnout (or in this case much better democrat turnout than 2008), when just about every poll says Republican enthusiasm is much higher and democrat enthusiasm lower than 2008.

[Red Badger]

With a D+6 sample and the best they can pull off is O at 50%, THEY ARE IN DEEP COW PATTIES.........

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Gravis Marketing? Who are they and why does the press even cover them?

[Kharis13]

I was looking over the electoral map yesterday and was convinced that Iowa would go for Romney. After seeing this poll, I’m more convinced than ever. If the MSM has to go to these crazy lengths to keep the race close, that bodes very well for the Governor.

Can anyone answer this (rhetorical) question: Why would Americans, after ALWAYS voting their pocketbook, be any different this time around?

[ScottinVA]

Obama leads by 23 percent with women.

Needy Abused Girlfriend Syndrome (NAGS) again.

[Lazamataz]

If you take the T&A out of GRAVITAS, you get GRAVIS.

[TigerClaws]

Good analysis of thr numbers.

Wisconsin poll coming out later today which will be good news for Romney!

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I don't think these people were Democrats.

And they are all showing up on November 6th.

[MrB]

We’d be better served looking at the 2010 turnout for the corrected sample level.

[MrB]

“Vote like you’re buying chicken sandwiches!”

[ScottinVA]

Is this outfit factoring in early voting? Hasn’t Iowa had a high pro-Obama tilt among the early voters?

[Brent Calvert 03969-030]

I believe Iowa will go R&R.

One big problem in Iowa, though, is all of the satellite voting stations. 53 voting locations will be on college campuses, used by students (many from out-of-state) after celebrity/musician visits. The students will be in large groups subject to peer pressure.

The local news also showed a satellite voting location that was located in a Mexican grocery store.

Only 100 signatures are needed to obtain a satellite voting location wherever the Dems deem one would benefit them.

[Gumdrop]

The two gender gaps alone are enough to throw out this poll.

[Longbow1969]

With a D+6 sample and the best they can pull off is O at 50%, THEY ARE IN DEEP COW PATTIES.........

Rasmussen is using a D+6 sample too. Almost every polling firm is picking up a fairly significant D+ party ID gap.

[kara37]

This is the polling firm that the left brutally attacked, when they were one of the first that showed Romney leading. The company even put out a press release to say that they were not bias toward republicans. Since then, they have released one poll after another favoring democrats.

Of course, to prove they are not bias.

[KansasGirl]

Except when Rasmussen polls specifically for party id, he gets R +2.

The demographics of Iowa haven’t changed that much in 4 yrs. Are you seriously suggesting that since 2010 the electorate has lunged left?

[struggle]

Holy crap. If this kind of self-delusion continues for another 11 days, the schadenfreude generated by the weeping and gnashing of teeth on the Democrat side with be more delicious than the finest steak.

I can’t wait to dig in!