Posted on 11/02/2012 12:01:20 PM PDT by Red Steel
Hope you like this NPR/Democracy Corps poll, because it may be the last national poll we see for a while. With Hurricane Sandy battering the upper Northeast, polling in the region will be impossible until at least the weekend, and possibly through Election Day. Without access to that part of the electorate, national polls will be undeniably incomplete. From here on in, it’s going to be nothing but battleground-state polling.
So why not wrap up national polling on a high note? In this survey conducted at least in part by James Carville’s group, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by a point, 49/48, on a national basis. On the other hand, their survey in battleground states (a subgroup of the overall sample) shows Obama up four, 50/46.
So what gives? The national sample has a D+4 tilt, with a D/R/I of 35/31/34. The battleground sample, however, has a D+9 tilt at 40/31/27. In what reality does the Democratic advantage increase in battleground states to a margin wider than the 2008 turnout advantage? I’m guessing only in NPR/Carville World.
The internals have more bad news for Team Obama. Independents break hard nationally for Romney, 51/39. In fact, only 29% of independents are certain to vote for Obama, a disastrously low number for the incumbent in any election cycle, especially with just seven days to go. Independents are harshly critical of Obama’s job performance, with a 42/54 approval rating that consists of only 17% strongly approving and 44% strongly disapproving. They’re even tougher on his economic performance at 39/60.\
The debates turned out to be Obama’s breaking point. Romney won converts at six points higher than Obama from the debates, 34/28 overall, but won by 16 points among independents at 37/21. Even in the ridiculously tilted battleground sample, Romney won by five at 33/28.
Compare this with Guy’s analysis of the Gallup poll, and this sounds like a recipe for a significant win for Romney in one week.
Oct 30? That’s old.
As my teenage niece would say, “It’s so three days ago”
72 hrs? I don’t think so. Obama is not going to change these internals in just a few hrs to overcome 4 years of failure.
“New” poll addiction syndrome.
It is old as polls go but RCP routinely includes 1 week old polls in it’s avreage. More importantly the point here is with the devastation of NY, NJ, and Conn., ACCURATE POLLING.IS NOT POSSIBLE ON A NATIONWIDE BASIS, and this includes by Rasmussen.
Someody clue me in. What’s that BAT thing they show with the parties?
There is no way the overall can be this close.
With a 12 point lead in independents,
with no McCain voter possibly voting for 0bama,
with 0bama voters staying home or voting Romney,
with “Chick-fil-A” syndrome among conservatives...
It simply can’t be close.
Not only that, but the Hurricane Sandy crisis is beginning to look like Katrina on steroids. I can only imagine some poor Marathoner getting hit with a bottle (<16 oz., naturally) during the race.
It is only a conservative way to look at it. I don't assume that at all. On the contrary, I've heard and seen too much of anecdotal evidence that tells me otherwise. Romney is going to eat into the Obama Dem vote by a significant margin.
It's not. It just means they asked a lot more D's than R's or I's. Of course you are likely to find that people who register as D's are more likely to vote for the D when you go ahead and poll them so that tilts the poll to the dem. If the D's show up on election day in that same proportion than their model was correct. Most are making absurd assumptions about the level of D excitement for this one though. Seriously, D+9 in some polls? There is just no way. None.
While we hear from Rasmussen, if I'm not mistaken, that Romney is only +3 with Independents.
Is it +3 or +12, that is the question. If it's really +12 then Romney gathers up something like 4 percentage points over Obama and should win easily. If it's only +3 ...
Pretty simple:
The “crosstabs” that are published show that something on the order of ~93% of those who declare they are Demodogs also declare that they will vote for -bama.
It appears that most of the Dems who are not going to vote for -bama declare themselves as “independents”
Democrats almost always have an advantage in identification, but Republicans have been competitive in national and state elections over the last three decades because Republicans are usually more likely than Democrats to vote. One’s partisan leaning is not a perfect predictor of voting in a presidential election, in which candidate-specific characteristics can influence a voter’s choice.
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