World Series thread over here for those who are interested.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2949662/posts
Posted on 10/24/2012 4:56:59 PM PDT by barmag25
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.
An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.
Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.
The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?
President Barack Obama 46.92% Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56% another candidate 2.30% Undecided 4.23%
(Excerpt) Read more at myfoxdetroit.com ...
Any D/R/I sampling data from this poll?
Ping
Tied, in Michigan? I’ll take that.
Damn! Ping
Not listed which makes me think it was skewed dem.
Haha good ole 47% for obama. That number is like a magnet to him.
And now the Detroit Free Press has turned on the unionistas.
“Freep Editorial Page Editor Not Going to be Bullied by Prop 2 Supporters”
http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/17772
Guess saving Detroit isn’t helping the 1
In a poll of “Hardcore Pawn” customers.....
http://www.fostermccollumwhite.com/
It may take some digging through their previous polls to find out what breakdown they have been using for Michigan.
35k phone calls ... no party ID asked.
Like gallup does
Yes! Michigan is “pink.” Union members aren’t as lock step as the leaders believe them to be.
35000 calls were made to get 1122 participants? That seems like a lot of calls for such a low participation rate.
Tied in MI, Romney ahead in NH, and tied in OH? I don’t think so. I bet Romney has a comfortable lead in the Buckeye state.
Not really hard to believe... a huge chunk of the calls will be voicemail/answering machines. And then once they get a hold of a live human, it may be a kid or someone who doesn’t speak English. After that, there’s only about a 10% or less participation rate.
Most people hear “Hi, I am Fred from Gallup...”
The pollster then hears: < Click, Dial Tone >
Notice how RCP did NOT include this one in their averages? Their pro-Obama bias in choosing which polls to include is becoming obvious.
That's about a three (3) percent response rate! Even the 47% slackers can't be bothered to respond to polls!
Whoa. Mittens might really win The Mitten. If he’s “tied” in MI no way he’s only “tied” in Ohio.
Excellent if true.
Dirty little secret of all pollsters. Sensible people can’t be bothered to be interrogated by strangers on the phone.
If this is accurate it’s looking like a Romney landslide. I’m going to have some popcorn Election Night to watch Chrissy Matthews getting a thrill up his leg.
Unless my math is failing on me, that's a 3% participation rate.
Oh Michigan don’t tease me :(
If this is accurate, then bambi is in real trouble
LOL
up here in the UP of Michigan, I know for sure Obama is not doing well. Obama is only doing great wherever there is four year college - Marquette (NMU), Houghton/Hancock (MTU) and Sault STe Marie (LSSU). I for one have a sign posted in my yard FLUSH OBAMA right next to a Toilet.
Grind your teeth Bamster! Marxism alert! Going down, going down.
Great news. The trend is your friend.
This is a great result... Can the son of a MI governor win the state? Stay tuned.
It was Obama over McCain 57-41 in 2008.
And that is why the polls are now rubbish: with response rates that low, the conclusions are unstable and liable to be biased (though you can't tell how) due to some systematic cause for non-response. You can't publish a paper based on a survey in any reputable journal in the social or behavioral sciences with a response rate of under 30%.
Of course, it may be that 35K represents the number of digit strings dialed, and that a lot of them were not phone numbers assigned to any users, in which case we don't really know anything about the response rate other than that it was greater than the 3.2% it would have been had all the numbers dialed been valid phone numbers.
Take a look at the electoral map here.
Yeah, I know, it's probably highly wishful thinking - but, WHAT IF?
While interesting....especially that it’s a MICHIGAN pollster polling Michigan....I find this interesting.
The actual response rate for the entire survey was less than 4 percent. 4 percent.......!!!!!
Wow.
I’m going to cut a few of the 4.23% undecideds some slack. When I was a new mother and terribly sleep deprived, I couldn’t make up my mind about the ballot initiatives. Heck, I could hardly finish a sentence. Some people just have a lot on their plate.
I can clearly understand the initiatives and lesser candidates, but for the highest elected position on the planet?
or, if you prefer,
THIS IS SPARTA!!!
another candidate 2.30% Undecided 4.23%
yeah lol!!! too funny!
McLame ran out of money and pulled out of MI quite early.
Detroit skews everything - its a dying city but still makes the difference in presidential elections.
This poll is a tease - it always looks intriguing and then at the end the D pulls away to win comfortably.
I’m sure what the optimism is about MI... it hasn’t gone R since 1988.
Very nice looking electoral map. I agree it is wishful thinking, but who knows?
That was because McCain quit the state and announced it to the world. He would have lost anyway that year, but not as bad.
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