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Michigan Poll: Obama and Romney in dead heat (47-47)
My Fox Detriot ^ | 10/24/12 | My fox detriot

Posted on 10/24/2012 4:56:59 PM PDT by barmag25

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92% Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56% another candidate 2.30% Undecided 4.23%

(Excerpt) Read more at myfoxdetroit.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: breaking; deadheat; mi2012; michigan; obama; poll2012; polls2012; romney; tie
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1 posted on 10/24/2012 4:56:59 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: barmag25

Any D/R/I sampling data from this poll?


2 posted on 10/24/2012 4:58:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Perdogg; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi; HamiltonJay; nhwingut

Ping


3 posted on 10/24/2012 4:58:47 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: barmag25

Tied, in Michigan? I’ll take that.


4 posted on 10/24/2012 5:00:55 PM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: cripplecreek

Damn! Ping


5 posted on 10/24/2012 5:01:01 PM PDT by KC_Lion ( Wherever I find myself standing, I forever stand with Israel.)
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To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
Gettin dicey for Bammy.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

World Series thread over here for those who are interested.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2949662/posts
6 posted on 10/24/2012 5:01:25 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Not listed which makes me think it was skewed dem.


7 posted on 10/24/2012 5:01:43 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: barmag25

Haha good ole 47% for obama. That number is like a magnet to him.


8 posted on 10/24/2012 5:02:11 PM PDT by joltman1974
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To: barmag25

9 posted on 10/24/2012 5:02:56 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: KC_Lion

And now the Detroit Free Press has turned on the unionistas.

“Freep Editorial Page Editor Not Going to be Bullied by Prop 2 Supporters”

http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/17772


10 posted on 10/24/2012 5:03:30 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Paradox

Guess saving Detroit isn’t helping the 1


11 posted on 10/24/2012 5:04:17 PM PDT by tndarlin (If only the VRWC had ACORN, SOROS, SEIU, TIDES .....)
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To: barmag25

In a poll of “Hardcore Pawn” customers.....


12 posted on 10/24/2012 5:07:24 PM PDT by 98ZJ USMC
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To: SeekAndFind

http://www.fostermccollumwhite.com/

It may take some digging through their previous polls to find out what breakdown they have been using for Michigan.


13 posted on 10/24/2012 5:07:30 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: SeekAndFind

35k phone calls ... no party ID asked.

Like gallup does


14 posted on 10/24/2012 5:08:49 PM PDT by Principled (Vote Romney to stop Obama. Vote for conservative Reps and Senators to stop Romney. [ZET 7/30/12])
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To: barmag25

Yes! Michigan is “pink.” Union members aren’t as lock step as the leaders believe them to be.


15 posted on 10/24/2012 5:09:20 PM PDT by madison10
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To: barmag25

35000 calls were made to get 1122 participants? That seems like a lot of calls for such a low participation rate.


16 posted on 10/24/2012 5:09:54 PM PDT by rwh
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To: barmag25

Tied in MI, Romney ahead in NH, and tied in OH? I don’t think so. I bet Romney has a comfortable lead in the Buckeye state.


17 posted on 10/24/2012 5:12:57 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: rwh

Not really hard to believe... a huge chunk of the calls will be voicemail/answering machines. And then once they get a hold of a live human, it may be a kid or someone who doesn’t speak English. After that, there’s only about a 10% or less participation rate.

Most people hear “Hi, I am Fred from Gallup...”

The pollster then hears: < Click, Dial Tone >


18 posted on 10/24/2012 5:20:01 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Notice how RCP did NOT include this one in their averages? Their pro-Obama bias in choosing which polls to include is becoming obvious.


19 posted on 10/24/2012 5:22:59 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: rwh
"Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%."

That's about a three (3) percent response rate! Even the 47% slackers can't be bothered to respond to polls!

20 posted on 10/24/2012 5:25:33 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: barmag25

Whoa. Mittens might really win The Mitten. If he’s “tied” in MI no way he’s only “tied” in Ohio.

Excellent if true.


21 posted on 10/24/2012 5:43:31 PM PDT by verum ago (Some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
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To: rwh

Dirty little secret of all pollsters. Sensible people can’t be bothered to be interrogated by strangers on the phone.


22 posted on 10/24/2012 5:51:52 PM PDT by relictele
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To: barmag25

If this is accurate it’s looking like a Romney landslide. I’m going to have some popcorn Election Night to watch Chrissy Matthews getting a thrill up his leg.


23 posted on 10/24/2012 5:58:00 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: barmag25
If it is true that he is tied in Michigan, then Romney is most certainly winning in Ohio.
24 posted on 10/24/2012 6:04:15 PM PDT by eekitsagreek
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To: Arthurio
After that, there’s only about a 10% or less participation rate.

Unless my math is failing on me, that's a 3% participation rate.

25 posted on 10/24/2012 6:04:23 PM PDT by Big Giant Head
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To: eekitsagreek

Oh Michigan don’t tease me :(


26 posted on 10/24/2012 6:08:20 PM PDT by Michigander222
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To: barmag25

If this is accurate, then bambi is in real trouble


27 posted on 10/24/2012 6:08:57 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GeronL

28 posted on 10/24/2012 6:13:24 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: GeronL

LOL


29 posted on 10/24/2012 6:14:00 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: barmag25

up here in the UP of Michigan, I know for sure Obama is not doing well. Obama is only doing great wherever there is four year college - Marquette (NMU), Houghton/Hancock (MTU) and Sault STe Marie (LSSU). I for one have a sign posted in my yard FLUSH OBAMA right next to a Toilet.


30 posted on 10/24/2012 6:22:55 PM PDT by hondact200 (Candor dat viribos alas (sincerity gives wings to strength) and Nil desperandum (never despair))
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Support Free Republic

31 posted on 10/24/2012 6:31:07 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: hondact200
I for one have a sign posted in my yard FLUSH OBAMA right next to a Toilet.

Perfect. LOL!
32 posted on 10/24/2012 6:32:55 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: KC_Lion
Bump and.....

Grind your teeth Bamster! Marxism alert! Going down, going down.

Great news. The trend is your friend.

33 posted on 10/24/2012 6:37:56 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: barmag25

This is a great result... Can the son of a MI governor win the state? Stay tuned.


34 posted on 10/24/2012 6:44:53 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: barmag25

It was Obama over McCain 57-41 in 2008.


35 posted on 10/24/2012 6:46:29 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: rwh
35000 calls were made to get 1122 participants? That seems like a lot of calls for such a low participation rate.

And that is why the polls are now rubbish: with response rates that low, the conclusions are unstable and liable to be biased (though you can't tell how) due to some systematic cause for non-response. You can't publish a paper based on a survey in any reputable journal in the social or behavioral sciences with a response rate of under 30%.

Of course, it may be that 35K represents the number of digit strings dialed, and that a lot of them were not phone numbers assigned to any users, in which case we don't really know anything about the response rate other than that it was greater than the 3.2% it would have been had all the numbers dialed been valid phone numbers.

36 posted on 10/24/2012 6:53:50 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: barmag25
Undecided 4.23%

Just freakin' unbelievable. Are these folk living in the woods like the uni-bomber, completely removed from society?
37 posted on 10/24/2012 6:53:53 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: barmag25
I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see Michigan go for Romney - 51 to 48.

Take a look at the electoral map here.

Yeah, I know, it's probably highly wishful thinking - but, WHAT IF?

38 posted on 10/24/2012 6:57:39 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: barmag25
Undecided 4.23%

Just freakin' unbelievable. Are these folk living in the woods like the uni-bomber, completely removed from society?
39 posted on 10/24/2012 6:58:20 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: barmag25; All

While interesting....especially that it’s a MICHIGAN pollster polling Michigan....I find this interesting.

The actual response rate for the entire survey was less than 4 percent. 4 percent.......!!!!!

Wow.


40 posted on 10/24/2012 7:00:51 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Cheerio

I’m going to cut a few of the 4.23% undecideds some slack. When I was a new mother and terribly sleep deprived, I couldn’t make up my mind about the ballot initiatives. Heck, I could hardly finish a sentence. Some people just have a lot on their plate.


41 posted on 10/24/2012 7:04:18 PM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks cripplecreek.
42 posted on 10/24/2012 7:08:34 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: married21

I can clearly understand the initiatives and lesser candidates, but for the highest elected position on the planet?


43 posted on 10/24/2012 7:15:18 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: barmag25
WOLVERINES!!!

or, if you prefer,

THIS IS SPARTA!!!

44 posted on 10/24/2012 7:26:59 PM PDT by RPTMS
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for the want of a nail...
another candidate 2.30% Undecided 4.23%

45 posted on 10/24/2012 7:27:27 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: joltman1974

yeah lol!!! too funny!


46 posted on 10/24/2012 7:41:50 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: Ken H

McLame ran out of money and pulled out of MI quite early.


47 posted on 10/24/2012 7:51:18 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: BrianE

Detroit skews everything - its a dying city but still makes the difference in presidential elections.

This poll is a tease - it always looks intriguing and then at the end the D pulls away to win comfortably.

I’m sure what the optimism is about MI... it hasn’t gone R since 1988.


48 posted on 10/24/2012 7:52:49 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Ron C.

Very nice looking electoral map. I agree it is wishful thinking, but who knows?


49 posted on 10/24/2012 7:58:28 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Ken H

That was because McCain quit the state and announced it to the world. He would have lost anyway that year, but not as bad.


50 posted on 10/24/2012 8:15:07 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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