Posted on 10/08/2006 11:26:23 AM PDT by YaYa123
Ten points is still a pretty good gap, and those last few points are hard to come by. Further, this is from a poll commisioned by Irey's campaign. Those are often inaccurate, at least from my experience.
It's good that she's closing, but I'm not sure she can finish it off in four weeks.
Proving the MSM wrong....my pleasure!!
MSM baloney.
The Democrats have convinced their people to vote already. Now they are convincing, through Mark Foley and general Republican incompetence, for core conservative voters not to vote.
The Ds could take all 435 seats in the House. It is possible since all seats are up for election. Don Young will keep his seat, that's one certainty. So 434 seats. Can Don Young, the fourth most powerful Representative in DC combat 434 Ds? YES! One against 434 sounds like steep odds, but that doesn't take the power of Don Young into account.
Despite the Foley matter, I stand by my prediction of Republicans down 7 in the House, and down two in the Senate unless Steele pulls it out against Cardin in Maryland. It is now fairly clear that one of the Republican losses will be here in my District, NC 11th. A 16-year incumbent Congressman (who doesn't belong in Congress) is going to be beaten by Heath Shuler, an inexperienced empty suit who used to play football.
Like Tip O'Neill used to say, "all politics are local." This year, at least most politics will be local at the margins among the voters, which is all that counts on election day.
Congressman Billybob
Latest article: "Sex, Politics, and Hypocrisy"
Please see my most recent statement on running for Congress, here.
It ain't over until it's over.
No fat lady has yet gotten up to sing. There is still the small incidental event of actually having an election, doncha see.
The Dem'crats tripped the flag about three weeks too soon on this Foley deal, so there was time to deconstruct the genesis and the play in the media. The whole story is falling apart.
Since they have essentially wasted this opportunity, the Dem'crats may still have yet another one waiting to drop in the first days of November. But badly timed "news" releases have the unfortunate effect of resulting in diminishing returns. No matter how timely or seemingly plausible the next release is, it will undergo far greater scrutiny, and have far less impact, than the "Foleygate" scare had, beginning from the first hours of its announcement.
The early release of this Foley story was most likely a direct result of the Chris Wallace interview on Fox, when the fit hit the "Shan". That was truly an uncontrolled moment that went badly for the "Shan" (previously known as the "Former Occupant of the Oval Office, 1993-2001). The Foley story release was an effort to distract the public from the really bad performance by the "Shan".
Not just a has-been. He is, and forever shall be, a "never-was".
It is indeed local and there is no Gingrich this time to make it a quasi-national thing. Sometimes the odds break in your favor, and this is one of those times.
There just don't seem to be any smash-mouth fighters on the Republican side.
Rothenberg blew the 2000 and 2002 House control races and is not respected by the Right. I will by days ends give links to Stuies screw ups from Past elections.
Santorum is one of our best senators and needs your support. I know people who are having trouble making ends meet who are scraping together money to send to him.
Without their key constituencies of necro-Americans, felon-Americans, non-Americans, fictional-Americans, and multi-Americans, the Democrats would win many fewer elections.
[M]ost people are reluctant to vote THEIR congressman out of office without a good reason.
Reminds me of a principal known as "Fenno's Law," which states: "Congress stinks, but my Congressman is OK."
es
Here's praying GW finds his VETO pen because he will have to use it OFTEN in the next two years.
I have my hands full with candidates in my own state. I will leave Santorum to the good services of his constituents. I wish them luck.
>Explain Santorum.
This hasn't helped:
http://saova.org/1139opponents.html
http://www.spanieljournal.com/20lbaughan.html
http://www.ncraoa.com/PDF/Rebuttal_SantorumSpeech8_22_05.pdf
http://pet-law.com/paws/ppa3.html
Rick's got people across the nation opposing his "pet" law.
Still waiting for Rove and the Republican October surprise.
Remember how we were dying in late October '04 waiting for Bush to get serious and make his move?
The big coons walk late in this game.
Meanwhile, I'm voting straight ticket Republican and against Sexual McCarthyism.
I live in a fairly conservative district, yet throughout the late 80's and all of the 90's we were represented by a moderate Democrat, after his second term the GOP didn't even run anyone against him and that includes 1994.
The bottom line is that the media is acting like this is a "slam dunk" but the reality is that they don't want to acknowledge how difficult it would be.
This is an understatement, but Like a poster said earlier on this thread - the GOP needs to attack.
If the GOP stakes out a defensive position instead of an offensive one, then I fear that the GOP is doomed on Nov 7.There is enough time left so that the Repubs ought to be able to go on the attack and keep both the House and Senate. This won't be for the weak spitited - and I must admit that I have been cought up in the cycle of doom and dispair - but the more optimistic we all can remain and if we can take the fight to the enemy....then I believe that we can send the DUnnies, once again, down the drain of dispair....and that is a wonderful sight to behold
"the GOP needs to attack.
"
Well, in the Minnesota Senate race, the GOP candidate is attacking, and his strategy is backfiring quite spectacularly.
Despite advice from many, the only ads voters are hearing from him are stupid attack ads with no content. He didn't have much of a chance in the first place, but Kennedy has had exceptionally poor advice.
He will lose, and lose badly. I have washed my hands of him.
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