[M]ost people are reluctant to vote THEIR congressman out of office without a good reason.
Reminds me of a principal known as "Fenno's Law," which states: "Congress stinks, but my Congressman is OK."
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I live in a fairly conservative district, yet throughout the late 80's and all of the 90's we were represented by a moderate Democrat, after his second term the GOP didn't even run anyone against him and that includes 1994.
The bottom line is that the media is acting like this is a "slam dunk" but the reality is that they don't want to acknowledge how difficult it would be.