Free Republic

The polling as of late is admittedly fairly bleak for the Trump campaign. The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls has Donald Trump down six points, 41.2% to 47.2%. […] But all is not lost — at least not yet — say experts, who argue the Republican nominee still has time to close the gap on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. […] … (T)wo models, the Time for Change model and Primary model show Trump the odds-on favorite to win in November. The latter model shows Trump winning by a comfortable margin of 5 points, and has an 87% level...

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988. Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton. He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory. “Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to...

One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that. There's just one problem: Its creator doesn't believe his own forecast. Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every...

The Obama wave, which has been building for months, reached the proportions of a tidal wave after Iowa. It is now about to submerge, sink, and drown the Clinton campaign, and with it, the Clinton era will come, finally, to a close.

Those in government tell us exactly what they want us to hear. They often twist the facts, and sometimes even tell outright lies. But, other than the vote, we citizens usually have little recourse. There is, however, a federal law (18 USC 1001), titled "Fraud and False Statements," that is sometimes used against citizens lying to those in government. The full text of the law is short, but rather interesting: "Whoever, in any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States knowingly and willfully falsifies, conceals or covers up any trick, scheme, or device a...