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JPMORGAN: The US Recovery Is About To Hit A Pothole Walter Kurtz, Sober LookJan. 6, 2013, 8:43 AM As discussed earlier (see post), US manufacturing sector has begun to recover. Manufacturing orders in the US as well as in Emerging Asia (see post) have diverged from other large economies. This trend is becoming reflected in the broader economic activity. However according to JPMorgan, the result of the latest fiscal negotiations will soon create headwinds for this expansion and dampen GDP growth. The tax increases on higher income households as well as the hike in payroll taxes will crate a drag...

The White House and Congress were close to reaching a deal Monday to resolve the fiscal cliff crisis that threatens the fragile US economic recovery. With only hours left until a midnight deadline for automatic tax rises and spending cuts, Barack Obama said agreement was within sight but discussions were continuing.

It's not just the economic numbers that are looking up for President Obama. A new New York Times/CBS News poll puts his approval rating at 50 percent, his highest mark since May 2010 (except for a brief bump after Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in May). That's a couple of points better than the RealClearPolitics average as displayed in the chart, but the uptrend is clear. Now, let’s assume the economy continues to grow—not gangbusters, but something along the lines predicted by economists in the recent Wall Street Journal survey. We’re talking slow-but-steady 2.5 percent GDP growth and a...