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The revelation of an Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried in a mountain at an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base near the religious city of Qom might seem ominous. If, that is, the Iranians were determined to develop a nuclear weapon. Fortunately, we are advised that they are not. In November 2007, US intelligence agencies wrote a National Intelligence Estimate concluding, “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” The intelligence community appears to be sticking by its judgment, which means — cue the sighs of relief — that the Qom facility may be only...

About that 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran . . . In November of 2007, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) drafted a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program. In its publicly released “Key Judgments,” the IC concluded: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” A footnote at the end of that sentence made it clear just what the IC thought had been “halted” (emphasis added): For the purposes of this Estimate, by “nuclear weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium...

Do you remember that 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate which concluded -- to virtually everyone's astonishment -- that four years earlier Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program? Publication of that NIE cut the ground out from under the Bush administration's efforts to prevent Iran from getting its hands on a nuclear bomb.  After all, why pressure the mullahs in Teheran to stop a program they'd already abandoned?  And, of course, the NIE's conclusion was cited by President Bush's political enemies as (further) evidence that the President and his team were so driven by their hard-line ideology that they (as...

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — A new assessment by American intelligence agencies released Monday concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting a judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.

Al-Qaeda is "less capable and effective" than it was a year ago after a series of damaging blows that have killed key leaders in Pakistan's tribal areas, the new US intelligence chief said. Nevertheless, retired admiral Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, said Al-Qaeda was still planning attacks on the West and is believed to view Europe as a "viable launching point."

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to nominate Retired Admiral Dennis Blair as director of national intelligence, according to media reports Monday

Intelligence: Our spy agencies have taken another look into their crystal ball and see a long period of American decline. We're betting they aren't any more accurate on this prediction than they've been on others in the past. The National Intelligence Estimate put out periodically by the nation's 17 spy agencies is intended to serve as a road map for future policy actions. Unfortunately, the one just released takes a lot of wrong turns. It warns, for instance, of Russia once again rising in global affairs — in part because global warming will be a boon to that nation's sprawling...

The New York Times reported last week that Israel carried out a major military exercise in early June that appears to be a rehearsal “…to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.” More than 100 Israeli warplanes -- including F-16 and F-15 fighters, refueling tankers and helicopters for pilot rescue - participated in the maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean. The message of the exercise, concludes the Times, was that Israel is prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Such an...

For most of 2007, concerns about Iran grew louder. This situation changed dramatically in December, with the release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities. The NIE, which assessed that Iran had ceased its covert weapons program in 2003, was widely interpreted to indicate that Iran was no longer a threat. As a result, questions were raised whether U.S.-led efforts to ratchet up financial pressure against Tehran, through both UN sanctions and unilateral measures, remained either necessary or viable. In reality, even if Iran no longer has an active covert nuclear weapons program, there would...

Washington and Tel Aviv vow to take 'tangible action' to prevent Iran from acquiring 'nuclear weapons', an Israeli spokesman says. Israeli premier Ehud Olmert's spokesman, Mark Regev, said on Friday that the diplomatic efforts to exert pressure on Iran to give up its uranium enrichment have so far been insufficient. "It is clear that additional steps will have to be taken," he continued. "We are on the same page. We both see the threat... And we both understand that tangible action is required to prevent the Iranians from moving forward on a nuclear weapon," said the Israeli spokesman. Regev then...

Democratic leaders called the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq ‘s assessment of President Bush’s “surge” strategy “incredible.” General David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the top U.S. diplomat in Baghdad are said to be facing a tough grilling when they give testimony to key congressional committees this week. “To be blunt, I find the report incredible—as in hard to believe,” Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said. “The claim that there has been significant progress in Iraq directly contradicts what the Democratic leadership in congress and our two presidential candidates have been saying. It...

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Senior Democratic senators challenged a new intelligence report's assessment of President Bush's "surge" strategy Friday, saying the troop increase in Iraq has failed to achieve its strategic goals. The classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which was distributed to key lawmakers this week, sets the stage for the latest public progress report on Iraq that will be delivered Tuesday and Wednesday to congressional committees by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the top U.S. diplomat in Baghdad. "In my judgment, it's too rosy, but there are parts of it that...

When a summary of the N.I.E. on Iran’s nuclear weapons program was released in October 2007, Democrats wasted no time in citing its “findings” that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program. Prominent party members dashed in front of cameras and microphones to bolster their claims that Tehran was ripe for dialogue and the Bush administration was wrong to think otherwise:

WASHINGTON - A new classified intelligence assessment on Iraq says there has been significant progress in security since the last assessment was delivered in August, a senior military official said. In most ways the new National Intelligence Estimate hews closely to the one delivered nine months ago. That document spoke of security gains since the increase in troop levels began in January 2007, the continued high rate of violence and uneven progress on the part of Iraqi security forces. "It does not differ significantly from August's NIE," a congressional official said in describing the document. The officials spoke on condition...

WASHINGTON - A new classified intelligence assessment on Iraq says there has been significant progress in security since the last assessment was delivered in August, a senior military official said. In most ways the new National Intelligence Estimate hews closely to the one delivered nine months ago. That document spoke of security gains since the increase in troop levels began in January 2007, the continued high rate of violence and uneven progress on the part of Iraqi security forces. "It does not differ significantly from August's NIE," a congressional official said in describing the document. The officials spoke on condition...

President Bush said Thursday that Iran has declared that it wants to be a nuclear power with a weapon to "destroy people," including others in the Middle East, contradicting the judgments of a recent U.S. intelligence estimate. The president spoke in an interview intended to reach out to the Iranian public on the Persian new year and to express "moral support" for struggling freedom movements, particularly among youth and women. It was designed to stress U.S. support for Iran's quest for nuclear energy and the prospects that Washington and Tehran can "reconcile their differences" if Iran cooperates with the international...

Old paradigm: Iranian nuclear program no threat to the West. New paradigm: Iran lied about its weaponization and may still be pursuing weapons. The IAEA now wants Iran to prove it isn’t developing weapons, and this time the Europeans have taken the lead in demanding answers: Last Monday, the chief United Nations nuclear inspector gathered ambassadors and experts from dozens of nations in a boardroom high above the Danube in Vienna and laid out a trove of evidence that he said raised new questions about whether Iran had tried to design an atom bomb. For more than two hours, representatives...

Julius and Ethel Rosenberg have gone down in history to stand beside Judas as among the world’s most notorious traitors (it wasn’t fair that the US had the atomic bomb but Soviet Russia didn’t). Perhaps someday soon, the liberal holdovers from the Clinton Administration who strongly influenced the publication of the National Intelligence Estimate that Iran had stopped its efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability will join the Rosenbergs in their special place in hell.

Iran is still not complying with nuclear inspectors sent to examine their nuclear energy programs, according to a report issued by the international Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). The report states that Iran has carried out a series of experiments associated with the production of nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment, including simulations of warhead detonations and tests involving Polonium 210, a material used to develop nuclear weapons.

Unintelligence on Iranian Nukes Appalling gamesmanship at the CIA. by Michael Rubin 02/25/2008 Unintelligence on Iranian Nukes Appalling gamesmanship at the CIA. by Michael Rubin 02/25/2008, Volume 013, Issue 23 During his February 5 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell backpedaled from the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and its claim that, "in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Not only did McConnell testify that the Islamic Republic was working to master the enrichment of uranium--"the most difficult challenge in nuclear production"--but he also acknowledged that, "because of intelligence gaps," the...