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The defining moment of my visit to New Orleans a year ago occurred in a gift shop. I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit this, but at least it wasn't the kind that sells feather boas and t-shirts with jazz-playing lobsters. I wasn't a sorority girl nursing my hangover at Café Du Monde during Mardi Gras; I was a tourist visiting what used to be a sprawling, stately slave plantation. I was busy mulling over that subtly troubling experience, browsing through the gift shop's bookshelves, when I came to a curious array of volumes. The title The South Was Right! jumped out...

I've analyzed the pre-election surveys of the 10 major multi-state polling firms. They were: American Research Group (ARG), Fox, Gallup, Quinnipiac (Q), Research 2000 (R2000), Rasmussen (Ras), Strategic Vision (SV) Survey USA (SUSA), and Zogby. I found Survey USA to be the best. Of the 35 states which I researched, SUSA polled in 29 of them. They were correct every time. What was truly astounding was their track record in states where the contest was not close. SUSA was largely on their own polling in these states, and such contests are often very unpredictable since creating turnout models is virtually...

Mason-Dixon Actual EV Bush Kerry Margin Bush Kerry Margin Swing States FL 27 49 45 4 52 47 5 PA 21 46 48 -2 49 51 -2 OH 20 48 46 2 51 49 2 MI 17 45 47 -2 48 51 -3 MN 10 48 47 1 48 51 -3 WI 10 46 48 -2 49 50 -1 IA 7 49 44 5 50 49 1 NM 5 49 45 4 50 49 1 NV 5 50 44 6 50 48 2 NH 4 46 47 -1 49 50 -1 Likely States NJ 15 WA 11 45 50...

Just perused the realclearpolitics state projections. Mason-Dixon just about nailed it...only missed Minnesota (had a 1% Bush lead). This assumes we win NM and IA. I don't think anyone else who projected as many states came anywhere close.

Rush's analysis http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_110104/content/stack_a.guest.html State-by-State Polling Gives Slight Edge to President Bush October 31, 2004 01:18 AM Mason-Dixon Polling and Research had a stellar performance in the 2002 elections missing only 1 poll out of the 23 the firm conducted. Their average error on each candidate was only 1.8%. While past performances hardly guarantee this year’s results, Mason-Dixon has released their latest round (and perhaps their last) list of battleground state polls. They strongly favor the president. Arkansas - Bush, 51-43 (6 EV) Colorado - Bush, 50-43 (9 EV) Florida - Bush, 49-45 (27 EV) Iowa - Bush, 49-44 (7 EV)...

After seeing the flood of poll data that has been rolling in from late last night to early this morning, I wanted to post some brief notes to all of you on this recent news, and in part to clear up some confusion among our members, because I think the weight of evidence provided by the polls taken as a whole is that Bush is going to win.Note: All links in this post are of the "pop up" variety, which you can open without leaving this page.First; to answer a question posed and argued over last night, the Gallup national...

A look at two recent polls of Michigan voters 10/31/2004, 11:33 a.m. ET The Associated Press (AP) — Results of recent polls in Michigan on the presidential race. Listed above each set of results is the name of the organization that conducted the poll, the dates, the number interviewed, whether they were adults, registered voters (RV) or likely voters (LV) and the margin of error (MoE). Results might not total 100 percent because of rounding. Trend, when available from the same polling firm, is in parentheses after the current numbers. An asterisk () indicates less than 1 percent. •__ Mason-Dixon...

Bush hangs on to slim leads in state polls Good news for the president in two states Gore carried, Iowa and New Mexico; virtual tie in Ohio, four-point Bush edge in Florida By Tom Curry National affairs writer MSNBC Updated: 8:01 p.m. ET Oct. 30, 2004 MILWAUKEE, Wisc. - With 48 hours of campaigning left, President Bush is holding on to narrow leads over Democratic challenger John Kerry in two-thirds of states surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, including six of the nine that remain on most lists of crucial "battleground states" that are considered too close to call. In...

New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

I can't seem to find a schedule, and they are pretty accurate on state polling.

I once saw two guys having a shouting match over one of the great vexed questions of our time: Is Florida part of the South? This altercation took place, appropriately enough, at the Flora-Bama Lounge, a bar which straddles the border between Florida and Alabama like a drunken colossus. The place is famous for its mullet-tossing competitions.Anyway, one guy (who was from Jacksonville) said Florida was full of old Yankees and new Cubans and so is not Southern. The other guy (who was from Arcadia) said Florida is too Southern - his local Denny's serves two flavors of grits and...

Most political pundits said Senator John Kerry out performed President Bush during their three presidential debates. But talk is cheap at least in the eyes of South Dakota voters. Last week we randomly surveyed 800 registered voters in South Dakota by phone. And judging by the numbers, President Bush will easily win South Dakota's three electoral votes. The last time we took a scientific poll in the presidential race, 11% of the voters were still undecided on who they were going to vote for, President Bush or John Kerry. "Probably because John Kerry is a fairly new commodity, he went...

Jim DeMint's commanding lead the U.S. Senate race has evaporated during the past month, a new independent poll shows. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. poll shows the Republican U.S. House member at 47 percent and Inez Tenenbaum, his Democratic opponent, at 43 percent. That's within the 4 percentage point margin of sampling error for the telephone poll of 625 likely voters statewide interviewed Tuesday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon for The Post and Courier of Charleston. The paper reported on Oct. 3 that a Mason-Dixon poll had DeMint at 50 percent and the two-term education superintendent at 38 percent in...

Nathanael posted a link to another website, where a poster claimed to have some of the Mason-Dixon Gore-state polls that are coming out later. Paleocon has chimed in stating that those numbers are correct, and gave the results for the other states that the other site’s post did not have. Call it a hunch, but something tells me that these are, in fact, the numbers. Let’s see if my radar is good here, and that instead of these posters just making things up they actually have a scoop. The results: PA: K46-B45 OR: K46-B45 WI: K45-B45 IA: B49-K43 NM: B49-K44...

On the eve of the first presidential debate, the race for Pennsylvania's electoral votes was a virtual dead heat. A new Pennsylvania Poll found U.S. Sen. John Kerry with a statistically insignificant lead over President Bush of 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the state.

President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry by 50 percent to 42 percent in Ohio, a state considered crucial by both campaigns, a new poll indicates. Two percent of those surveyed supported Ralph Nader. The poll commissioned by The Plain Dealer for its Sunday edition was conducted from Sept. 10 to Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C. It was based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote Nov. 2. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points.

Bush is running slightly ahead of Democrat John Kerry among registered voters in Colorado, a new poll shows. The president had 48 percent support and Kerry was at 43 percent in the survey, conducted for The Denver Post by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Six percent of voters said they were undecided. The poll, conducted June 15-18, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Colorado was considered safe for Bush, but Kerry recently began competing there although registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 185,000. Bush won the state in 2000 by 9 percentage points over Democrat...

Some of you have been following my constant embattlement with polls. Well, I found a website with state polling data from the 2000 election and compared them results from the election (The site only had data starting with "H", as the page with A-G states was lost from the server apparently) and here are a few observations. ARG - American Research Group was by far one of the worst polling services that covered many of the states. They consistantly and constantly slanted towards Gore, even having Tennessee in the Gore column by 5 percentage points in a poll conducted just...

<p>President Bush leads John Kerry by six percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll. Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent.</p>

Bush Leads Kerry in Ohio, New Poll Shows CLEVELAND (AP) -- President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry in the key swing state of Ohio in a three-way matchup that includes independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader, a new poll shows. Republican Bush was at 47 percent, followed by Kerry at 41 percent and Nader at 3 percent among registered voters surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for The Plain Dealer. Results were released late Saturday. Nine percent of voters were undecided. Bush's lead came although about half in the poll expressed disapproval of his handling of the economy, found to...