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(CBS) Tammy and Troy Renault Look like any middle class couple, but someone else is living what used to be their home. Almost everything they own is in storage, reports CBS News correspondent Seth Doane. Now, home for the Renaults and their four kids is a campsite - a tent and a borrowed trailer. Troy said that how they ended up there is Economics 101. When he lost his job with a construction company and had trouble finding work on his own, the bills piled up, and everything else came crashing down. "You go from 'do you pay your lights...

Hotels in the U.S. posted a 1.4 decline in occupancy to 53.4 for the week of 30 August-5 September 2009 compared to the same period in the previous year. The decline in occupancy was one of three declines in all three key performance measurements during the week according to Smith Travel Research (STR). Average daily rate dropped 8.6 percent to finish the week at US$92.20 whilst revenue per available room for the week decreased 9.9 percent to US$49.28. The market which reported the largest decreases in all three key metrics was Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota-Wisconsin, which hosted the Republican National Convention...

Manufacturing sector expands; pending home sales up more than expectedNEW YORK - The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in August for the first time in 19 months, adding to evidence that the recession is ending. The better-than-expected reading Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management showed the highest number for its manufacturing index since June 2007. New customer orders jumped to a level not seen since late 2004. And in another sign of an improving economy, a gauge of future U.S. home sales rose more than expected in July to the highest point in more than two years.

I can't agree that this report shows "green shoots": . While the rate of decline has slowed the fact remains that we are nowhere near "turning the corner" in terms of job loss, and yet the mantra is "green shoots, green shoots!" Here it is "in pictures": . Note that while goods-producing layoffs have dropped materially, the services side of the economy has basically flat-lined. That is, the goods-producers have drawn down inventory (a cycle that may be nearing completion) and as such their need to lay off people has waned - however, the services side is still seeing contracting...

Recent data suggest that job market conditions are not improving in the United States and other advanced economies. In the US, the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5 percent, is poised to rise above 10 percent by the fall. It should peak at 11 percent some time in 2010 and remain well above 10 percent for a long time. The unemployment rate will peak above 10 percent in most other advanced economies, too. These raw figures on job losses, bad as they are, actually understate the weakness in world labor markets. If you include partially employed workers and discouraged workers who...

That neutral valuation suggests the stock market is likely to resort to its long-term average of 7% annual gains, Shiller says. That sounds great, but the famed professor isn't forecasting that outcome due to one major caveat: The economy is in a "precarious state" and, should it stumble anew, the stock market "could go down a lot," he says. Shiller is clearly dubious of the "green shoots" mentality and believes it will take a very long time for the economy to return to normal growth after the bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.

In a live interview on CNBC underway now, Warren Buffett says there has been little progress over the past few months in the "economic war" being fought by the country. "We haven't got the economy moving yet."

Memo to the CNBC division... GE Jun 19 2009, 06:40 PM EDT 12.10 Change % Change +0.13 +1.09% Maybe this guy could tell his CNBC underlings what he's seeing at the corporate level, rather than the floor of the stock market. B: General Electric Co. Vice Chairman John Rice said he isn’t seeing an increase in orders even as U.S. economic statistics suggest the world’s largest economy may soon shift to a recovery. “I am not particularly of the green shoots group yet,” Rice said today to the Atlanta Press Club, referring to a phrase used by Federal Reserve Chairman...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWu-efNN8PM&feature=player_embedded

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators Chart locations are an approximate indication only 1)"We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes in 1927 2)"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future." - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity." - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 3) "No Congress of...

The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates. "We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."

In January, the phrase "green shoots" began to circulate in the mainstream media. At first, the effect was unnoticed but in the past thirty days, "green shoot" is not only increasing in use but displacing "recession" in internet conversation.