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What a difference a news leak from the Federal Reserve makes. Ever since this newspaper ran its December 2 page-one article, "Fed View Shifting on Inflation: Rate Rises Likely," the world's leading indicators of future prices have been heading back down. David Malpass of Bear Stearns points out that gold has since dropped to $434 or so from a peak of $456, oil is back down to $41 a barrel and the dollar has been firmer in currency markets. Amazing how that works: The Fed finally signals that it is going to print fewer dollars, and inflation expectations begin to...

In the fourth tightening of US monetary policy in as many meetings, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the Federal Funds Rate target 25 basis points to 2.00%, as expected. More...

In the second tightening of US monetary policy since May of 2000, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the Federal Funds Rate target 25 basis points to 1.50%, as expected. More...

In the first tightening of US monetary policy since May of 2000, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the Federal Funds Rate target, from its 46 year low, 25 basis points to 1.25%. More...

So why do investors oppose using higher interest rates to battle inflation?PRINCETON, NJ -- Six in 10 investors say inflation is a serious problem and 9 in 10 say the price of energy, including gas and oil, is hurting the investment climate, according to the June UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism survey. Even more significantly, nearly half of all U.S. investors are worried that inflation will hurt their investment portfolios. So, why did June investor optimism reach its highest level in four months? And, why do nearly two in three investors oppose higher interest rates? The answer may be that...

Consumer Spending Increases At Highest Rate Since 2001.  "Consumer spending rose by the largest amount in 2-1/2 years last month but inflation accounted for half the increase, the government said Monday, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week. Personal spending was up 1.0% in May, the Commerce Department said, beating forecasts for a 0.8% gain and the biggest advance since October 2001's 2.4% rise." ("Consumer Spending Surges In May, Prices Up," Reuters, 6/28/04)Personal Income, Wages And Salaries Rise.  "Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, increased 0.6 percent for a second month. Wages...

Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Tuesday indicated that interest rates might have to rise faster than expected to keep inflationary pressures under control. Speaking from Washington via satellite link to a conference in London, Mr Greenspan said he remained confident that the Fed could afford to remove monetary stimulus from the US economy gradually but that he was ready to take stronger action if necessary. Although the reaction in financial markets was muted, economists said the comments marked a significant shift in Fed rhetoric, with inflation starting to take center stage. "The [Fed's] committee is of...

Central bank not seen raising rates Tuesday but FOMC likely to signal that a rate hike is coming. NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Economists will be shocked if the Federal Reserve were to change interest rates Tuesday, but most are convinced the central bank's policy makers will do so soon. The Fed's Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday is its first since recent economic reports showed the highest jobs expansion and inflationary pressure in several years. But even with rates near four-decade lows, economists believe it's too soon to expect the Fed to shake up the market with a sudden rate...

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan At a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 29, 2003Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape. As a consequence, the conduct of monetary policy in the United States at its core involves crucial elements of risk management, a process that requires an understanding of the many sources of risk and uncertainty that policymakers face and the quantifying of those risks when possible. It also entails devising, in light of...

FED WATCH: Wall Street Sticks To Fed Bets Post Greenspan By Michael S. Derby Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Testimony Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan proved to be a big disappointment for economists hoping for new clues on the direction of monetary policy. Both in prepared remarks and through several hours of questioning before the House Financial Services Committee, Greenspan effectively told Wall Street what he's been saying for a long time: while growth should improve later this year, it's still to soon after the Iraq war to get a solid read on the economy's strength....

FED WATCH: Looking For Clues, Just Like Everybody Else By Michael S. Derby of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve officials are finding themselves in the same boat as private sector economists as they try to figure out where the economy's heading. In a limited number of speeches since the conclusion of the major fighting in the Iraq war, several Fed policy makers have said they're hopeful better days lie ahead for the economy. Speaking in New York on Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus and St. Louis Fed President William Poole, the former a voter on the...

FED WATCH: FOMC Closer To Having To Ease After Jobs Data By Michael S. Derby Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The ugliness of the February payrolls data released Friday is the last thing Federal Reserve officials wanted to see at this point. But it's still unclear what Chairman Alan Greenspan and his fellow central bank officials will do about it. A number of economists say the most likely response will be the Fed signaling at its March 18 gathering that downside risks to the economy are rising. But whether the Fed will actually want to ease the overnight...