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Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, highlighted that consumer delinquencies are among the most worrisome economic indicators currently being monitored. His concerns now appear prescient as new data reveal a significant uptick in delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2024. "If the delinquency rate of consumer loans starts rising, that is often a leading indicator that things are about to get worse," Goolsbee stated.

Credit card delinquencies are on the rise, as research from the New York Federal Reserve shows nearly a fifth of borrowers are “maxed-out.” According the new report, issued by the bank’s Center for Microeconomic Data, household debt rose by 1.1 percent, or $184 billion, in the first quarter of the year, bringing the total to $17.69 trillion. “In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” Joelle Scally, regional economic principal within the household and public policy research division at the bank, said in a statement....

When the economy is going well, people buy a lot on credit and keep current with their credit card debt. When the economy stinks, people still buy a lot on credit but fall behind in their payments. By that measurement, we're in a lot of trouble. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published a study showing that the rate of credit card delinquencies — 30, 60, and 90 days past due — rose to a level not seen since 2012. And it gets worse. "Fourth quarter 2023 featured the worst card performance in the series," the report said. "All stages...

Delinquency rates among American credit card holders are at an all-time high, while at the same time a record number of “active accounts” have “a balance of over $2,000,” according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report. We’re more than three years into the Biden presidency, so we all know where the blame lies. More from Bloomberg: Almost 3.5% of card balances were at least 30 days past due as of the end of December, the Philadelphia Fed said. That’s the highest figure in the data series going back to 2012, and up by about 30 basis points from...

fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/12/three-measures-of-us-credit-card-debt/#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20outstanding%20credit%20card,for%20consumer%20spending%20going%20forward. From a disposable income standpoint the Fed data agrees that the consumer is better able to service their debt now than they ever have. That peaked during the stimmie checks but that gap has closed from -25% to -5% in the past 2 years. Which is not a promising trend. Adjusting for inflation the debt is equal to pre Covid but 20% higher than post GFC.

Bidenomics is a windfall for the donor class (high rate of return on campaign contributions) while the middle class gets beaten to a pulp. Waiting for Biden to lean over and creepily whisper “It’s working!” Even though it is clearly not working, at least for the middle class. Evidence that Bidenomics is not working and destructive? Try the surging income needed to buy a house under Biden. Home prices are rising faster than median household income. As in $111,000 income needed to buy a house, while median household income is only $78,000. So, housing is simply unaffordable under Bidenomics. The...

The US is experencing a slow down. The massive Federal government and Federal Reserve Covid stimulus has worn out and we are left with a sagging jobs report and soaring credit card delinquencies. After ADP’s reports printed almost perfectly in line with BLS last month (+177k vs +187k), all eyes are on today’s print, which was expected to decline to +150k. Instead it plunged to just +89k – that is the lowest jobs addition since Jan 2021. Credit Card Delinquency rates at small banks have reached 7.51%, the highest level ever recorded.

Thanks to Bidenomics, code for massive Federal spending on green energy initiatives and payoffs fo large donors, we have agonizing inflation and consumers are borrowing more and more to cope with inflation. And with the increased use of debt comes …. drumroll … delinquenices! Let’s start with mortgage loans, the overall delinquency rate is 63bps, near record lows, likely due to the huge home appreciation of the last few years which padded the equity cushion for most homeowners. Even the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) has a delinquency rate only 30bps higher than the aggregate. Unlike the 2007-2011 period, the...

Its not a wonderful world for regional and small banks given the deterioration of office markets. The latest data from Trepp, which tracks commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) securities market data, shows the delinquency rate of commercial property loans packaged up by Wall Street jumped again in July, with four of the five major property segments posting increases. “While the rest of the US economy has seen relief in terms of higher equity prices, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and falling inflation numbers, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to be left behind,” Trepp wrote in the report. Trepp data found the...

The two largest banks in the U.S. have reported rising delinquency rates on their credit cards. Both Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase said in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that their delinquency rates rose in January, two days after Discover Financial did the same. Bank of America reported that from December to January, its Master Credit Card Trust II’s delinquency rate rose from 1.03% to 1.09% and its net charge-off rate increased from 1.43% to 1.50%. JPMorgan Chase said that during those same months, its credit card delinquency rate rose from 0.76% to 0.83% but its...

According to June’s LPS Mortgage Monitor, 6.68% of mortgages were delinquent in June, up from 6.08% in May. The increase was in short term delinquencies, and most of this increase was seasonal (delinquencies usually increase in June). 2.93% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 4.09% in June 2012. 9.61% of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure. • 1,983,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure. • 1,345,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure. • 1,458,000 loans in foreclosure process. LPSJune2013...

Nothing good to see in the credit card arena. Capital One's January annualized net charge offs hit a record 10.41%, while 30-Day delinquencies stayed at the highest of the past 3 months. ---SNIP---

The economy and the stock market may be recovering from their swoon, but more homeowners than ever are having trouble making their monthly mortgage payments, according to figures released Thursday. Nearly one in 10 homeowners with mortgages was at least one payment behind in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in its survey. That translates into about five million households. The delinquency figure, and a corresponding rise in the number of those losing their homes to foreclosure, was expected to be bad. Nevertheless, the figures underlined the level of stress on a large segment of the country, a...

Delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities soared $10 billion in June, hitting a 12-month high of almost $29 billion... California led the nation with the highest amount of delinquent loans, closely followed by Texas and Florida. Late loans across the country are up an “astounding” 585 percent from a year ago when just $4 billion were delinquent... California with almost $3 billion in delinquent loans, or 10 percent of the exposure, and Texas with $2.5 billion, or 9 percent of all delinquencies, "remain a major concern." In California, the delinquent properties are spread across the state, compared to Texas where...

Delinquency rates on prime mortgages, the least risky category, more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to statistics released yesterday by the government. Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31. At the same point last year, 60 day deliquencies were just 1.1 percent of all prime loans. Two thirds of all mortgages in the US are prime mortgages, so any percentage increase in deliquencies represents a huge absolute number of deliquent mortgages. So here are the absolute numbers: 661,914 prime mortgages were at least...