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I think that we are missing something here. The D+7 is plainly wrong unless you assume that the high Indy number includes many who would identify as Republican tomorrow in final party ID based upon how they vote. This would bring the Indy number down to a reasonable level and close the gap between D and R. It also is consistent with Romney being up big with the Indies. Unfortunately, the top line result thus would not have to change to produce a more reasonable looking party split. In other words, I am no longer convinced that the exclusive focus on the D+ number is enough to rebut all polls where that number appears out of whack. There may be other things to consider.

I am afraid that the tide of support that Romney recently enjoyed is going out and we will not like what tomorrow brings. I hope that I am wrong.

Let’s just hope that Ras and Gallup are right and that Romney pulls this out.

This report is actually very depressing and I fear it may be close to the truth. My nightmare is that the surprise state outcomes that all expect will not be Romney picking off a state but instead will be Obama taking a state we are counting on like Virginia. Sorry for getting pessimistic but there it is. Let’s hope that even the Romney camp is happily surprised by what happens with turnout tomorrow.

Actually Morris no longer makes money helping candidates and the last time he really was a factor was with Clinton as an advisor beginning in 1994. Romney can still win and I would love for the media complex to be deeply embarrassed by a Romney win, but having Morris on our side makes me nervous. He has almost always been wrong ever since he told us that Hillary would not even run for Senate in New York.

I saw on another thread that Pat Cadell reported on FOX that he sees movement towards Romney in the internals of various polls. Did anyone else see that and if so, can you confirm? I trust Cadell to read poll entrails as well as anyone.

As for this CNN poll, the D+11 seems absurd but Romney leading indies by 22 likewise seems too good to be true. The top line is consistent with many other polls. Many polling outfits can’t be trusted - PPP and Marist for example - but I sure would like to see Romney leading in one. maybe Gallup tomorrow.

I’d take WI, MN and MI. I have real hope for WI. As for MI, I grew up there and can remember the first Governor Romney. That was a different time and place. I will be shocked and proud if MI goes Romney.

I am no expert on polling and would welcome any insight re this question: is it possible that all the D+ polls that also show independents heavy for Romney are classifying more soft R’s than soft D’s as independents? The reason I ask is that the polls with the highest D+ also seem to show the highest independents for Romney. I agree that PPP can’t be trusted. The thing that I can’t get is that the breakdowns are all over the map but we can’t seem to get a lead for Romney no matter how the internals break out.

I hold Rove in as low a regard as anybody, but simply pointing out that Democrats have not had to answer questions like those that Bachmannn will be called upon to answer won’t do it. Different rules apply. It isn’t fair but that is just the way it is. Michelle will be hounded by this issue unless she can find a way to address it directly and put it to rest. Does that mean releasing medical records? I don’t know. But she better be brainstorming a more effective response than “where are Barack’s records?”

Funny, my father always said the people get the representation that they deserve.

Anyone who now says that they voted for Obama because Palin was on the Republican ticket is looking for a way to explain what they now recognize as a mistake without saying “I was wrong”. They do not realize that those three simple words can set you free.

You may be on to something.

My own theory is that Kerry's medical records will show that his "wounds" were laughable and, perhaps even more damning (if Kerry received military medical treatment after he returned)they may show that Kerry was treated or counselled for stress related disorders. We know about his regular nightmares(breaking up the furniture and such). Also, I think that in some of his prior interviews (previously posted here)he has dodged the question about therapy for post traumatic stress disorder. (BTW - I am brand new posting, but have been lurking for years.)