Here’s a valid question for you:
If Trump has a ceiling of 49%, in a two-man race, does Cruz have a floor of 51%?!? That’s laughable.
We DON’T KNOW what Trump’s ceiling is in a two-way race.
But, for now, it’s a three-way race. As it stands, I could easily see him handing Cruz’s ass to him on a silver platter in the northeast:
NY (proportional, 95 delegates): 65% (based on latest poll) of 95 = 62
NJ (winner-take-all, 51): Trump was crushing it in the polls in a five-way race and still should be, so 51
CT (proportional, 28): no recent poll data, but at least 15
RI (proportional, 19): Trump is killing it in the polls there, at least 10... probably 13-14
DE (winner-take-all, 16): no poll data, but Cruz won’t win here, 16
MD (winner-take-all, 38): not guaranteed, but I’d put money on it, 38
PA (winner-take-all, 71): Trump led in the polls two weeks ago by 17 points with Rubio still in. Rubio had 19 points. I doubt Cruz can take all 19. [Cruz is hated in PA, by the way; I live here, and I feel confident of that.] So, 71.
If my intuition is right, that gives Trump a minimum of 263... and probably more like 270.
I’m pretty sure he’ll take a bunch of other winner-take-all contests:
AZ (58): he leads solidly in two polls, so 58
WI (42): he led solidly in the last polls a month ago, so 42
CA (172): the biggie. He led handily in the polls the four-way race, with Rubio’s share not enough for Cruz to close the gap even if he got all of it. Plus, CA GOP is very heavily anti-Mexican illegals. So... 172
Right there, you have another 272. That’s 535 total. With his current 678, that puts him at 1213... 23 short of 1236.
But wait... I already said that I’m betting he’ll get another 7 out of the Northeast. So, he’d be 16 short.
Then, you have the proportional, direct election and unbound contests:
UT (40)
ND (28)
WV (34)
OR (28)
WA (44)
NM (24): Lots of anti-illegal sentiment in GOP here
Other winner-take-all
MT (27): No idea. No poll data. But I’m guessing that Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric will play well here.
SD (29): Again, no idea... no poll data.
If you can figure out how Trump won’t dig 16 delegates out of that map, be my guest.
Ironically, Kasich may be the spoiler. He’ll not only deny Cruz 3 or 4 contests he might have won one-on-one, but he’ll probably keep him from achieving the 8 state win threshold demanded by the convention rules.
Even if Kasich drops out, Trump should be close or over the required delegate count. And if he’s within 100 or so... it would be DAMN tough for the GOP to broker this without a full-scale revolt.
Plus, I could see Trump and Cruz joining forces... either one at the top of the ticket and the other as Veep.
Let’s see how it goes!