Free Republic

I got arrested yesterday for walking out of the museum with a painting.
I was so confused. Earlier I had asked a guard if it was OK to take a picture and he told me yes.

What do you get when you cross a polar bear with a seal?
A polar bear.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

Did you hear about the cannibal who passed Uncle Bosey on the beach in New Guinea?

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

A "Broken China" Update.

If you want on or off the ping list send me a FReepMail.

One last update before my shoulder surgery tomorrow morning. I'll let you know how it went when I get back.

Item One:
In advance of the Third Plenum national meeting of the CCP there has been an unprecedented number of arrests and detentions during investigation of CCP officials, industry leaders, and military leaders on corruption charges related to corruption in government and military equipment purchasing. More on this as it develops.

Item Two:
Municipal workers are being forced to accept pay cuts generally around 20%. Workers don't dare quit or they will lose any back pay. I mentioned the other day that things will go down hill fast when they stop paying the police. Well, it has started.

Item Three:
6.5 million migrant workers leave the construction industry amid China's deepening Real Estate crisis. These workers are already at the bottom of China's worker hierarchy and are the hardest hit by the ongoing recession. The lack of workers means the likelihood of unfinished buildings being completed drops even further.

Item Four:
Country Garden, China's largest builder has reported that sales are down 87.3% year-over-year. It has also failed to make interest payment totally ~$4.1 million US. The last day of the grace period is Monday 13 May. They won't make it.

Item Four:
Nicaragua has revoked a century-long canal concession granted to a Chinese firm. The decade long effort has been rife with fraud and was resulting in increasing societal discontent in Nicaragua.

Item Five:
I would like to propose a new name for the People's Republic of China. I think we should now call it West Taiwan.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

Many people will find it hard to forgive you for being right when they weren't.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

If you truly wish to protect minority rights then you must be, perforce, a supporter of individual civil rights. The smallest minority is the individual.

Once you start placing the rights, needs, or wishes of any group ahead of that of the individual the discussion becomes one of just how much tyranny is acceptable to you.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

My advisor in college was Dr. Robert Gallman. He was one of the foremost experts on the economics of slavery. It was not dying as fast as you would believe.

Interestingly enough, the slaves actually received about 40-50% of the value of their labor.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

They aren't man-made. There isn't enough energy in North America in a year to power one of those things for an hour.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

The future belongs to those who show up for it.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

I am torn over this issue. My family were southerners from before the American Revolution.

I am a firm believer in states rights as it was the states that created the federal government rather than the reverse.

On the other hand, I am absolutely and unalterably opposed to slavery in all its forms. Whether chattel, penal, or mental, slavery is utterly evil.

James Madison wrote, “The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite. The former will be exercised principally on external objects, as war, peace, negotiation and foreign commerce. ... The powers reserved to the several States will extend to all the objects which in the ordinary course of affairs, concern the lives and liberties, and properties of the people, and the internal order, improvement and prosperity of the State.”

I think that Mr. Madison would be dismayed to see how his great work, the US Constitution has been misused and misinterpreted.

I think we need a Congress of the States to reign in the Federal Government. The implied powers of the Federal government needs to be sharply curtailed.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

Oh, yes. People like you are absolutely indispensable.

Rarely loved but absolutely indispensable.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

That's some good stuff right from the start. I saved it for background music while putting together puzzles.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

I would think that telling a flag officer what he wants to hear instead of a proper briefing would be bad because our people could get killed if the flag officer is getting his 4 star ego massaged.

It is also a huge career ender. Anyone who is so cavalier as to bodge up a briefing to make themselves look good when lives are on the line is a danger to the country and the command. That is lying by omission. Contrary to popular belief, the Intelligence business is all about truth telling. Lying is for politicians and used car salesmen. We can and will forgive mistakes, professional and personal. We will NEVER forgive lying for personal benefit.

In 2005, a series of issues, mostly personal, led me to drinking far more than I should have. I was working for a 3-letter agency that does NOT begin with 'C'. I reported adverse information on myself and got help. I temporarily lost my access but I kept my clearances. After an investigation I was read back into all my compartments. If I had lied about any part of the situation I would have been out on my ear with no hope of return. And rightfully so.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

You're welcome. I try to explain things in the simplest terms that gets the information across.

The Raison d'Etre (reason for being) for an Intelligence Officer is to give the commanders the intelligence information they need to know to do their job. The WORST sin you can commit is to waste a flag officer's time. They will not forgive you.

You learn quickly that you know the deep background intel and they don't. They don't need to, that's why they have you. You hit the high points in a brief and they ask you questions. And believe me, if they need to know something and you didn't give it to them, they will ask. From this you learn the 'altitude' of the briefing the commander prefers.

A pleasant side effect from standing in front of a 4-star and getting questioned is that you permanently lose your fear of public speaking. I'd much rather deliver a talk on the history of the piccolo to a crowded Rose Bowl than be the focus of an angry flag officer.

As for getting information you wouldn't see from the LSM, it works both ways. I learn from all y'all. You have experiences and expertise I will never have. I am better for being around y'all.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

A tattoo is a permanent reminder of a temporary feeling.

One of the principles of leadership says: "Until it is necessary to make a decision, it is necessary NOT to make a decision."

This is to remind the young officer that you should always keep your options open and gather as much information as possible before making a decision. In other words, don't go off half cocked.

The trick, taught by experience, and preferably someone else's experience, is to know when it is necessary to make the decision.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

Eastern NC pulled pork and cole slaw is the hands down best combination.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

That's part of the problem. Only about 20% of the new graduates will find teaching jobs.

The number of unemployed and under employed graduates is expected to grow. Part of the reason for this is that their degrees are not good for much more than teaching. This is the reverse of the United States where most of our masters and PhDs don't go into teaching but are gobbled up by industry because they can solve real world problems.

Civil unrest in China is a giant crap shoot for everyone in and out of China.

I want the CCP to hold on for at least several more years. This gives us time to build out industrial capacity in the US. It will reduce the disruption for us (US) when the PRC ultimately collapses.

Every day the PRC doesn't collapse is a blessing. It gives us time to reduce the impact their collapse will cause here. Unfortunately the first warning most people will have of the collapse of the PRC is when stuff simply stops arriving in the US.

This is the "whimper" scenario and is the preferable scenario for everyone involved. What we don't want is the "bang" scenario where the CCP lashes out at Taiwan, or someone else, in a desperate bid to remain in power. The only question then is how many people are going to die and where those people live.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

A "Broken China" Update.

If you want on or off the ping list send me a FReepMail.

A heads up on what's going on in China. Things are getting a lot worse, a lot faster, than I thought they would. The PRC economy is sliding into a deflationary spiral. I warned last October & November that the economic indicators showed this was possible but I didn't think it would be here this soon or this bad.

The biggest problem I have is that I am working from second and third remove news sources. I am trying to make economic sense of the news without original sources. I would LOVE to look at the economic analysis reports from the NSA & CIA China desks. Of course, if I did, I certainly wouldn't be here telling all y'all about it.

Item One:
The PRC economy is rapidly falling into a state that makes the Great Depression in the 1930s look like happy times. In the tier one cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou (Hong Kong area) brick and mortar businesses are looking at an 80-90% closure rate even in what were up-market shopping districts in Beijing three years ago. If things are this dark grey in the tier one cities they must be approaching Stygian blackness in the tier two and three cities.

Business owners are getting hit with a combination of 1) fewer people buying less stuff, 2) short term operating credit has dried up and where it is available the interest charged is rising, and 3) customers have stopped making payments on Accounts Receivable.

Both businesses and individuals are relying on high interest credit cards for every day purchases which they are defaulting on to the banks.

The only businesses that seem to be doing well are new "Three Yuan Breakfast" chains. For three Yuan, about $0.40US, you purchase the use of a smallish cup and may drink freely from a selection of porridges and tea. There are other items, such a fried dough, for sale for a similar low price. The quality of the food is dubious at best but it is considered a good deal for the price. I guess when you are having trouble affording food of any sort this is a good deal. The novelty will soon wear off and it certainly doesn't contribute to societal happiness and contentment.

Item Two:
The resale market for Real Estate has collapsed utterly throughout the PRC. There are 90+% price cuts in unit listings and it is NOT moving the sales needle. The new unit sales are not much better.

Item Three:
Unemployment is surging across all economic strata. The hardest hit are the construction worker. Not far behind them are recent undergraduate, masters and doctorate graduates. Last year the PRC produced about 1.2 million masters and doctoral graduates. This is far in excess of economic demand. Chinese graduate programs focus on producing academics rather than problem solvers. Only about 20% are finding employment in their field of study when they are finding employment at all. This is leading to a large number of Masters and PhDs delivering food and driving ride-shares.

Conclusion:
The combination of numbers one and two are putting extreme financial pressure on the the financial sector and hence the CCP at all levels. Real Estate taxes and land sales make up a large percentage of provincial and municipal government revenues. The revenue crunch is leading to wage payment delays to municipal workers. When they stop paying the police and medical workers, push will come to shove VERY quickly.

The three of these items taken together are a sure fire witch's brew for societal unrest, the one thing the CCP fears the most. I am reluctant to forecast when things will come to a crisis as I am likely to be wrong. I will try to keep you informed and stay at least a few hours ahead of the power curve.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

The best place to stay on top of this is at Space Weather News.

Be warned that unless you deal with this on a regular basis you won't understand most of what they are showing. The YouTube videos they provide are more for the general public.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

We could always hire this hard working French farmer to spread said bulls' waste product on the protestors.

We should remind the protestors that they asked for Vegan meals to be delivered.

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

NEB

OK, now what?

SpyNavy

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)