Free Republic

Wow one boomer,I AM SO IMPRESSED, versus our what two, three dozen or so found the USN inventory. No I don’t have a number. You know guys the more I research what it takes to have a true modern military I find only very few can really afford it. Only the EU, if it ever had a military of its own with all nations contributing, and the USA are the only ones capable of building such a military. China builds up one part of its military and falls behind on other parts, and parity with us still decades away, if achievable at all. Russia is even worse off. Israel has the tech to develop large,medium and small high technology weapons platforms, but not nearly the tax base or the economy to do so. Although it’s worth noting that the US is borrowing it way to a better social safety net and a robust armed forces. We stand at the greatest debtor nation probably of all time, certainly in the world now. Face it guys modern military technology may have become to expensive to afford even by richest nations, war might have just priced itself right out of the market.

As usual, there must be a voice of reason in a sea of nonsensical chatter. It took the US a good part of a century to build a first class Navy, Air force, Marines and Army. We refined doctrine, R&D, procurement practices, industrial production and many other things. These things take along time to do. The Chinese for a long time were a third rate army and yes they have made strides but there remains an enormous gap in nearly every category between us and them. Even by the Chinese own estimate they will be a major power no earlier than 2050.

TRUTH ALERT; IT I TRUE IF THERE IS NO PROCEIVED THREAT EITHER FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC. SOMEONE WILL CREATE IT BECAUSE THERE ARE BILLIONS AT STAKE IN WEAPONS PRODUCTION. DOES ANYONE DISPUTE THAT IF PEACE, REAL PEACE BROKE OUT THAT BOYS IN THE PENTAGON WOULD JUMPING OUT THE WINDOW. DON’T MEAN TO RAIN ON YOUR PARADE GUYS, PEACE ISN’T GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY AND WAR MEANS BUCKS.

The NMD was never design or conceived to counter the threat posed just by Iran and North Korea. To believe that is to be completely foolish, these threats never have risen to the level to require such an investment. NMD is design to end MAD once and for all, and that degree the Russians are right to call Bush’s premise for building it a farce and completely unbelievable. The world at the turn of the century was at a transition point and could have gone to a more health direction. Now it is heading in a disastrous direction: with a arms race already in place in the Southeastern Asia, a could be arms race in Eastern Europe, and the Muslim world continuing to be radicalized. This century is shaping up to be perhaps the last century of the human race. Need I remind every one about the weaponization of space as well. I am not saying things can’t turn around, but the direction of world events is dire in deed.

When I present the population of India as road block to being conquered. Even with technological advancement the Iraq conflict has shown in spades that taking over a country and pacifying it are two completely different things. We have the largest and most tech savie military in the world but we have had and continue to have trouble with a country that has a population less than 1/10 ours. So imagine trying pacify a country with 1.1 or 1.2 billion people.

The reason India and China may always be at odds is their aspirations which they have in common. Each nation wants to be the dominate power in the region and become a dominate power in the world. Each society hasn't evolve very far, and sees military might and economic might a means to become equal to us. India isn't building its military merely to check China's power, example their aircraft carrier program which is designed for force projection not coastal defense. Like the mind set that permeate the world in the 30s, it not about right or wrong it is about power. Each society has a male dominate mind set, and is swimming in nationalistic fever. Take their space programs, do you believe they are interest in the peaceful exploration of space, not likely. They along with us and Russians are going to weaponize space, if hasn't happen already. India and many other nation have a infantile response to trivial matter. Rioting in the street over a kiss is stupid, and killing because of some off color cartoons are just some signs that many nations are overly emotional. They also lack an understanding of what a civil society really is. This particularily true in the Moslim world. Free speech says we can denounce a cultural affront without burning things and rioting.

With all the increase in Chinese defense outlays, they are still dwarfed by the whopping 613 billion dollar US defense budget I just heard about for I think 08 or 09. This is adjusted for inflation as much spent during WWII, and nearly a third of a 2.3 or 2.4 trillion dollar budget. Lets say the Chinese spent 150 billion US they would still less than 20 percent of US defense outlays. Even with more buying power it still wouldn't even come close. At the present growth of defense spending you might see a 1 trillion dollar defense budget by end of this decade or the beginning of the next, which would nearly equal the entire defense outlay of the whole world.

Speaking about the fear of the Chinese buildup, there is some cause for concern, but much of it is overblown by the infantile politics of India and much of Southeast Asia. Example a simple kiss by Richard Gere set the Indian populace off. The lack any understanding that China can care less about them and will never have the power to conquer India, has been lost. India has a population of about 1.2 billion, equal to China. And the fact no one has that power, not even the US.

China has usurped the position of USSR as the world bogeyman, and many people inflate it power and potential to a degree in order to serve political purposes.

I think China is still years away if ever of achieving parity with the US. That being said, they could make any conflict with us a very painful affair. There is also another conclusion you could make, this could be just a scheme to enter the lucrative defense market with product every bit as good as the Western nations, but sold at a bargain. Money more than anything motivates the communist, in name only, apparatchiks in power. A trillion dollar market, they must be salivating. Internal conflict will always be paramount to Beijing, and the use of military might a political tool. China certainly isn't Iran and they are much more practical and Machiavellian in there move across the global stage.

We don't know what they would do if the US really starts a trade war with China. Do you think that America would risk its "Good Faith and Credit" principle, and do something that communist do. Perhaps your right that the market value of the bonds would fall, but that would affect US treasuries more than the investment China has made. I don't know much about debt instruments but I know that face value of the bond is gaurantee along with a coupon rate, which they would lose. In any case, America would have to make good on it debt intruments because if it didn't it would risk losing vastly more cash from other foriegn investors

China is a different country than the Soviet Union. It may generations but it is possible that China may in the distant future become a democracy on its own. As the last adherents of Mao, Dung Xia Ping (I don't know how to spell his name so forgive me) die off. Doesn't any believe that 3rd and 4th generation leaders are going to be even a fraction of the believer in Socialist Doctrine as their predecessors. Not to Mr. Hunter, put punitive sanctions on China, and they will call in there 800 billion dollar marker. They have been buying are Treasuries for years, and then they will stop and start putting their enormous cash reserves into Euro Treasuries and investment vehicles. They might start charging more for exported goods and slap tariffs on any imports from the US. Oh, yeah they might start actively egging on the Iranians, giving them even more sophisticated weapons for which they can kill Americans. Even if they didn't the economic effect of really picking a fight with China would be devastating. Do you think that the Treasury has 800 billion to make good on those notes.

Excuse me everyone, instead of correcting my Latin, you should be commenting on the strength of my arguments. I never receive a classical education, so sue me.

There has been Coses Belli for war with Iran probable since the beginning of the War in Iraq, but the Bush Administration didn't feel it was important. Now with around 20 months left in his administration he going to start another conflict with present on yet to be won. What a moron!! Unless he is willing to institute a draft and put at least two million troops into the region he should just shut up. No it wouldn't take that many troops to conquer both Syria and Iran but they would be needed to a real job of pacification. Not the half-buttock job that has been done so far.

I don't find it very scary that China can hit an aging weather satellite. I don't think it is entirely unwarranted for a country to want to defend it part of space. As far as we complaining about China weaponizing space, I heard it was an earth based weapon. Unlike the hunter killers we are planing or have already deployed in space, which are apart of our massive NMD program. I am in favor of the NMD, but never let anyone tell you it is directed at North Korea or Iran, that is only a side benefit. NMD is design in its practical and evolving forms to eliminate MAD, and make irrelevant China and Russia's arsenal of nuclear weapons. There are other space base weapons on the drawing board at the Pentagon, so the space weaponization horse is already out and has been running wild for years.

I have heard time and time again as evidence continues to come in; such as witness accounts, pictures and home movies, that there is no evidence to support the existence of extrasolar life. Most evidence I have seen and heard is in not totally persuasive to me, but gives some credence that something is going on. However, the media and many people continue to make those like myself who believe life on other planets, at least logically is a certainty given the vast number of galaxies and stars, to feel like weirdos and freaks. There will come an encounter that will completely persuade me and everyone else. Even the skeptic will have a near impossible job denying it. I hope I am alive to see, to see all those who didn't believe eat a big helping of crow. They denied logic, evidence, but they won't be able to deny this. Life is stranger than fiction, and there is more in heaven and earth than can be imagined by man.

I am about sick of hearing people pooh pooh the likelihood of the existence of extra solar life. One scientist said according to his measurement that the universe might be as much as 156 billion light years in diameter. Just one film plate of a cluster of galaxies has hundred, thousands, perhaps millions of galaxies in it. They are called Super Clusters. Our galaxy alone is about 70,000 to 100,000 light years across and filled with 400,000,000,000 stars, and many of them are main sequence stars. Now imagine this one civilization among all those stars has been technologically advance for say 10,000 years. Now tell me it is impossible or likely that there might even be older civilizations, so might even have visit and continue to visit are little back water part of the Milky Way Galaxy. I only entertain the possibility now that some future generation of man, assuming we don't blow ourselves in the interim, will get a real global close encounter of the third kind. For now we are the primitives of the galaxy still clubbing each other over the head because of minor differences in our skin color, religion or the way organize our societies. And of course there is the stupid reasons people find to kill one another. If I were an advance culture, I would toon in on the earthlings and have a good laugh, and be very afraid that their madness might spree across the galaxy.

I believe it the first strike against unrestricted surveillance of a country. Who said that every country should have unrestricted access of the space above a country. We often get mad when another country show the slightest bit of military capability. China from time to time going to have success and failures on its road to military parity. We as America just want to rule all battle spaces unchecked. China is still along ways from this parity, so stop being chicken little America and causing the very arms race you are trying to prevent.

The Varyag is only a training ship. The Chinese, as we all have observed, are very patient. The know very well that they have allot to learn about carrier operations. The Varyag will never see the open seas it will stay within about 200 miles of the Chinese Shores. Now probable in 2020 we will see a series of indigenous Aircraft Carrier being commissioned and put sea in a Chinese version of a Carrier Battle Group with their subs taking the lead. By that time the Pacific will be flooded of super-quiet Chinese submarines both nuclear and diesel. The main fighter on these new carrier I would guess will be a navalized version the J-14 or J-XX. The Chinese military isn't like the Soviet/Russian military the aren't going to rush into costly mistakes like the Kirks and many others. BUT NO OF THIS MATTERS AS OUR NEW GENERATION OF SURFACE SHIPS AND CARRIER WILL BECOMING ONLINE AS WELL THE F-22B RAPTOR. WHICH I GUESS IS ALREADY ON THE DRAWING BOARDS OF BOEING OR GRUMAN. THE CHINESE WILL ALWAYS BE THE TORTOISE TO OUR HAIRE EXCEPT ARE LITTLE BUNNY DOESN'T SLEEP. HE SIMPLE PASSES THE FINISH LINE DECADES BEFORE THE CHINESE WILL. THEY PRODUCE A 4.5 GENERATION FIGHTER WE PRODUCE 5+ GENERATION FIGHTER NAMELY THE F-22A AND F-35 JSF. LIKE FIGHTING THE INDIANS WITH REPEATING RIFLES AGAINST BOWS AND ARROWS. (caps used for emphasis only)

You are wrong about who will fill the void. Imagine this, by end of this century China will be knocking on Europe's Door, assuming that Russia population dwindles to indefensible level. If China is as forward thinking as many believe than you might see them do nothing to stop Taiwan independence and that all this oposition was just bluster. On one hand they could gain an island and other hand they could gain 12 time zones of territory. Which would you want. With all those national resources they could become a legitimate challenger to the US, possible become the dominate power in the world.

I don't think Japan would be the first to strike NK, it might be the Chinese. I think they might be the nation most irked by Kim Jong ILL behavior, and they wouldn't want SK and US troops up against their borders. It will be a race who acts first, but whomever acts Kim Jong and his buddies will assume room temperature with days of any action. It is a good bet that all players are aware of his movements on a minute by minute basis. A nuclear test by North Korea is simply suicide by Kim Jong and his cult of personality.

Most people who make racist comments don't realize that they are racist. If China were a free nation they would be producing as good if not better in some areas technological goods of every kind. Freedom is more than political, it releases the innovative energies of the freed people. Yes, it does take time. America wasn't the technical wizard that it has become, for much of our history we rural and verily backward. Even with position we attained after WWII, it still took more than fifty years for us in the west and the rest of the world to produce the current state of technology. China has freed it economy but not its people, so they will take even longer and may never really reach parity with west or even Russia. It is part of the general blindness many countries and cultures have these days; Russia, China, the Muslim world. They think that progress that we Americans achieve is some how magic or a deal with the devil or something, not an outgrowth of freedom's reign.

Sorry, but that sounds like a racist comment, I know some Chinese students and teachers at my college that every bit as capable as American born students. Innovation isn't in the water we drink in America, it is our free flowing management and R&D structures that enable the best and the brightest to pursue their dreams and flights of fancy. That is why China has such a hard time with great leaps of technological advances. They aren't free or they aren't as free as our scientist, and most of their best science is government run. We have learn from the past that governments are very bad at basic and applied research.

I don't know how far along the Iranians are toward a nuclear bomb or whether they are in fact pursuing a bomb. I am not privy to the intelligence that Israel or the US government has, but I will say this, the leaders of the Soviet Union in the beginning of the Cold War where every bit as fanatical, the Maoist during the Cultural Revolution definitely where fanatical. However, we never saw a nuclear war with them. I say that, to say this, we better have iron clad proof of nuclear weapons program in Iran before we move because if we don't our credibility in the region will be shot for perhaps the next generation or two. This proof better include a deployable nuclear weapon within the next two to five years, if not within a short time span of perhaps 12 to 18 months being an ideal threat level for military action. The world wants nations to defend against immediate threats, not would be could be threats. DON'T GET ME WRONG THE WORLD WOULDN'T MISS THE PASSING OF THE IRANIAN AND SYRIAN GOVERNMENTS. MY POINT IS THAT ARM CHAIR GENERALS WOULDN'T BE THE ONES RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING STABLE GOVERNMENTS IN THESE REPECTIVE COUNTRIES, AND THE COST WOULD BE THROUGH THE ROOF. THE COMMITTIMENT WOULD BE LONG TERM, MORE THAN A DECADE. THERE WOULD DEFINITELY BE UNFORSEEN CONSQUENCES FOR WHICH PERHAPS AMERICAN CIVILIANS FEELING THE BRUNT. ARE WE AS AMERICANS READY FOR THAT? WE ARE AS DIVIDE ON THE ISSUE OF THE TERROR WAR AS WE ARE ON MANY ISSUES. (I use caps only for emphasis of vital points not to scream at anyone.)