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Posts by drellberg

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  • College Football Playoff updated rankings: Who are the top four teams in the fifth CFP poll of 2019?

    12/04/2019 3:58:30 AM PST · 41 of 43
    drellberg to Clint N. Suhks

    Each year two or perhaps three teams stand well above the rest ... on paper. Then there are four more teams that are not at all far apart but differ on various dimensions (one with better defense, say, and another with few turnovers or better special teams). Add to this that the players are all 19 and 20 years old and you have a mess. The CFP committee resolves this by doing whatever they darn well please, and all of it in smoke filled rooms.

    Add to this a $3B contract between ESPN and the best but most “remote” conference, the SEC, so that the conference’s intrinsic advantage is egregiously overhyped. Then take the two conferences that are most slighted, put all of their teams in the largest markets in the country, and have them care about conference championships and internal rivalries (Buckeye fans would sooner beat Michigan than Alabama) and not really give a flying cig about a CFP that they’re never invited to join (rightly or wrongly, does NOT matter).

    The list of nonsense goes on much longer.

    Who had the idea to introduce this CFP system? It is a slow motion disaster with no way out.

  • It’s real! A third poll reveals 33% nonwhite support for Trump

    12/01/2019 10:14:55 AM PST · 2 of 43
    drellberg to SeekAndFind

    This isn’t dumb luck. It has been PDJT strategy since day 1. PDJT has also been courting Jewish voters. He has one chance to win a majority of course, and so his dim witted adversaries claim that he is wasting his political capital. But if he flips even 5-10% of these demographics he gets > 50.1% of the popular vote and wins an electoral college landslide.

    He also puts these groups indefinitely into play going forward and destroy the Dems whole narrative around having a popular vote mandate.

  • Week 14 winners and losers: Who is best poised to capitalize on Alabama's loss?

    12/01/2019 9:39:46 AM PST · 64 of 95
    drellberg to C19fan

    1) Perennially 2-3 teams stand out while teams 4-8 each year just aren’t clearly better than one another. The CFP committee navel gazes and without setting down any precedent-setting reasons picks their “fave.”

    2) The CFP committee shows no reference to conferences or conference champions. They are wrecking conferences. Look soon for the ultimately much, much stronger conferences soon to turn around and wreck the CFP.

    3) between them the Big 10 and PAC 12 dominate the largest media markets in the US. The SEC and Big 12 markets are tiny in comparison. Do not expect these conferences to roll over so that the SEC can always send 2 of the 4 teams in the CFP.

    4) The CFP committee plays lots of politics — they have both opportunity and motive. Look for them to try to muscle Utah in at #4 if they can. The chance to include the PAC12 happens maybe 2 years in 7. It’s unwise to pass it up.

    5) Look for the Big 10 to go 6-2 or better in bowl games this year.

  • College Football Playoff Rankings: November 26, 2019

    11/27/2019 8:39:12 AM PST · 28 of 35
    drellberg to twister881

    Buckeye AND wolverine fan here ...

    As in most years a couple outliers in the upper tails of the distribution, a drop off to number three — no telling how much — and then only modest differences four through, say, eight. The CFP committee will navel gaze to rationalize and validate what they wanted from the outset and then get blasted from several directions.

    As is the case every year, Alabama has the most talent but not necessarily the best leadership or chemistry. And this year their QB is out, which is too bad. It is a mistake to have an apparatus that rules out a team after one narrow loss to a great LSU team. Too much pressure on too many 19-year olds and profoundly unfair.

    But also unfair to 1-loss and conference champions Utah and Oklahoma. Unfair in the same measure every year since it started. The whole CFP set up is ridiculous (it also denigrates and wrecks the conference infrastructure) and not much longer tenable.

    But looking past the gosh darn stupidity of the CFP it still seems to me that this college football season has been unusually interesting and fun, even if on any given Saturday there have been remarkably few great individual matchups. Clemson has been invisible, which is stunning for an undefeated and defending national champion but understandable given how remarkably weak the ACC is in football. Are Clemson’s wins against high school teams newsworthy? (Yes, I exaggerate.) More important, is Clemson at a marked disadvantage in the CFP for not having had even one worthy opponent since last January? (I say yes.)

    Is the Big10 underestimated? (I say yes. Deepest conference in college football.) For those of us over 50 years old, What the heck is the matter with Texas and USC? Even Michigan’s program has been less AWOL in recent years and these days is at least credible.

    So much more to say but back to work. It’s a great time of year. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!

  • College Football Playoff Rankings: November 19, 2019

    11/20/2019 9:14:49 AM PST · 36 of 44
    drellberg to JohnC2004

    JohnC,

    Thanks for responding. It is growing increasingly evident that the CFP is ruining college football. Alabama has a great football team even without TT — and I “hate” Alabama and the whole SEC. It should not be the case that one close loss against another top 5 team ends their season — no playoff and no playing for the conference championship.

    But more to the point, the playoff is the ruin of conferences more generally. And if I were the conference commissioners of the Big10 and Pac12, I would be talking very seriously about going back to the old Rose Bowl arrangement to pit the two conference champions, and to heck with the CFP. More specifically, I would invite into the Big10 these teams: either Miami or FL (not both), GA Tech, Pitt and one other eastern large market team (Boston College?); and into the PAC12 I would invite: Texas, A&M, Baylor, and Houston. The two conferences would then command >40 of the top 50 metropolitan markets in the country — not just for football of course but across the board. What markets would the SEC have? OKC?

    I guess my point is that this CFP nonsense can go on only so long before common sense prevails. ESPN makes an obscene amount of money off of their relationship with the SEC and so of course they over-hype the SEC. Why does everyone else put up with this foolishness, which isn’t even good for the SEC?????

  • College Football Playoff Rankings: November 19, 2019

    11/20/2019 6:39:59 AM PST · 28 of 44
    drellberg to C19fan

    The week’s rankings don’t matter. Where will these take us? That’s what matters. Georgia lost to a weak South Carolina team and gets dinged using the same logic as was used last year to disqualify OSU (which lost to Purdue). Precedent is a b*tch. Of course, if UGA wins out they go to the CFP but otherwise no.

    What no one acknowledges is the great damage done to college football by the egregious disrespect shown to conferences. If Alabama does not even play for the SEC championship, surely they cannot get picked.

    Meanwhile, either Utah or Oregon is likely to have one loss, the PAC12 championship and a compelling case.

    The reality is that each year there are one or two teams that stand out; and every once in a while a third. Beyond this tail in the distribution there is a big drop off, lots of talent through teams seven, eight, nine, maybe even ten and nothing but navel gazing to draw meaningful distinctions. Each year the choice of team #4 makes the committee look like a bunch of clowns.

  • Nikki Haley: Trump is 'truthful,' and I 'never' doubted his fitness for office

    11/12/2019 1:47:44 PM PST · 86 of 89
    drellberg to Steve1999

    I posted hours ago that I like Haley a lot a lot a lot a lot.

    I’ve closely tracked the comments that have come since. Regarding her being an opportunist:

    1) Coming in as UN Ambassador, I suspect (based on reasonable evidence in the public record) that she had strong differences with the President, which she squelched in order to secure the job. She went along even though she disagreed. Call that opportunism if you want but I think it’s rigor, class, understanding chain of command and being a valued member of the team.

    2) Over time, it became clear that her outlook on foreign policy grew ever closer to the President’s positions, because her rhetoric and tone both became more emphatic and emboldened. And as a few others have pointed out, when she left it was with the President’s high praise and clear affection. If she runs for President in 2024, of course she will chart a different course than President Trump; just not all that much different.

    The mainstream media and Never Trumpers do not realize the extent to which Donald Trump has forever changed the conversation. There is no going back. Nikki Haley is a perfect example of that. Whatever she was in 2014, she is a convert by this day and going forward.

  • Nikki Haley: Trump is 'truthful,' and I 'never' doubted his fitness for office

    11/12/2019 7:15:05 AM PST · 38 of 89
    drellberg to Steve1999

    I am a Freeper from way, way back.

    I cannot for the life of me understand the vitriol leveled against her. She backed a different candidate in the primaries. So what?!

    Since joining this president, she has been loyal, advanced the president’s agenda faithfully, performed well, shown resilience and resolve, made a difference. She has not defended every statement or action he has made, but I do not recall even one instance where she spoke up against him. Where she does not approve, she seems to demur. I think this is good for her, of course, but it is also good for the President. She comes across as loyal without seeming to be a sycophant.

    I like her a lot a lot a lot a lot.

  • Week 11 winners and losers: Who will move up after Alabama and Penn State's losses?

    11/10/2019 6:01:43 AM PST · 16 of 29
    drellberg to C19fan

    The Committee will go to some lengths not to appear to over-favor the SEC. Watch Oregon move to #4, giving the PAC12 real hope. Either Oregon or Utah is likely to end up with one loss, and the Committee will think long and hard before denying the PAC12 a spot in the playoffs on the one occasion every few years when they have a competitive team to offer.

    By the same reasoning, expect Baylor and to a lesser extent Minnesota to get higher rankings than they deserve ... what’s the cost to the committee? Show some love. Give themselves some room to maneuver if it turns out that (against all odds) these teams finish as undefeated conference champs.

    The SEC is overrated every year. Putting four SEC teams in the top 8 is ridiculous. They’re the best conference in college football, yes, but they are nowhere near as dominant as their homers want everyone to believe.

    Go Buckeyes! Go Blue! Go Big 10!

  • Democrats' new moves show House could wrap up impeachment by Christmas

    11/08/2019 9:23:24 AM PST · 47 of 52
    drellberg to Libloather

    This ends by Christmas only if the Dems censure our President rather than impeaching him, on what would be a straight party line vote. With a censure, they can hold fast to the fabricated and flimsy storyline they have concocted and claim a face-saving victory.

    No one is talking about censure, so I don’t want to predict it. But it seems to me that we are surely on that trajectory; and not on any trajectory that could plausibly lead to impeachment.

  • Michael Bloomberg again eyeing 2020 presidential bid: sources

    11/07/2019 5:12:31 PM PST · 69 of 81
    drellberg to dead

    It’s a mistake to sell Bloomberg short (pun intended).

    He is a quantum improvement over Biden, Warren and Sanders, because that bar is so low. If he runs he will be formidable. In the primaries he will run almost as if he were an independent, going rogue interestingly in ways similar to Trump during the 2016 primaries. He will put great distance between his positions and impeachment, Russiagate, etc. If he enters the race I give him a 70% chance of being the Democratic nominee, largely because by default he is the only credible choice.

    Moving to the general election, the ultra-far left (25% of Dems) would be Never Bloombergers in the same way as Never Trumpers were in 2016. Half might vote for him because they hate Trump so much, but many will stay home. Bloomberg will appeal to independents and RINOs, of which there are many he can peel away from Trump.

    Trump will change demeanor and tactics if Bloomberg is the Dem nominee. He’ll run an entirely different campaign, and so it is impossible to predict the outcome. But it makes no sense to bet against this President. I would give Bloomberg a 40% chance to win but no better.

    Unless some big sh*t hits the fan next summer or fall, I don’t give Biden, Warren or Sanders even a one in three chance of winning the general election. They are impressively weak.

  • Scarborough: DC World Series ‘Lock Him Up’ Chants ‘Sickening,’ ‘It Started with Donald Trump’

    10/28/2019 7:08:52 AM PDT · 20 of 46
    drellberg to ChicagoConservative27

    Turnabout is fair play. Hard to get worked up. But here’s a key difference: it’s one thing for a crowd at a Trump rally to demonstrate their partisanship. It is an entirely different ball of wax for the majority of fans at a Major League Baseball game to do so. For the tens of millions of fans watching, it was a helpful reminder that so much of Washington is in the tank for the Deep State. This can’t help them.

  • James Comey says he will move to New Zealand if Trump wins in 2020

    10/28/2019 6:16:16 AM PDT · 29 of 44
    drellberg to 2ndDivisionVet

    I don’t get the point. Won’t President Trump’s second term conclude long before his prison sentence?

    Would this be to spite President Pompeo or Haley?

  • McConnell tees off on Democrats over impeachment

    10/16/2019 4:58:30 AM PDT · 15 of 17
    drellberg to pnut22

    “Censure for what offense?”

    Good question. But that’s one part of my larger point. For Pelosi et al to impeach, they must at some point enumerate specific high crimes and misdemeanors. And then they must cede the agenda to the Senate, where the very crafty Mitch McConnell will have a field day.

    A censure ... well ... can be for anything or nothing. McConnell does not get his day. The Dems could probably get 20-30 RINO votes for a censure, making it seem non-partisan.

    I am asserting only that Pelosi is keeping censure as a live option, and that there is reason to believe that this will be a better option for her and for Dems than impeachment in the end.

  • McConnell tees off on Democrats over impeachment

    10/15/2019 7:22:49 PM PDT · 5 of 17
    drellberg to 2ndDivisionVet

    Pelosi is a worthy adversary of the even better PDJT.

    She is keeping her options open. She is doing so because the logical outcome of all of this nonsense is censure rather than impeachment; and if the Dems can’t perform markedly better than they are presently, that is where this will end. Censure. Not impeachment.

  • Trump rips reports of 2nd 'Deep State' whistleblower: 'Keep them coming!'

    10/06/2019 1:46:13 PM PDT · 62 of 64
    drellberg to E. Pluribus Unum

    Everything up to 2 weeks ago was just the orchestra warming up.

    We are now 5 notes into the first scene of perhaps the greatest tragic opera in modern days. President Trump sees this, as evidenced by his take-no-prisoners counter punches.

    The talent, intellect, and resources on both sides are prodigious; not to be underestimated either way. The Democrats, though, have i) a lousy position to defend; ii) been horribly disorganized and scattershot; and iii) already expended a large chunk of their resources and credibility.

    Our side cannot be complacent or overconfident, but the advantages are clearly with us.

  • Google researchers have reportedly achieved “quantum supremacy”

    09/21/2019 4:45:14 AM PDT · 7 of 86
    drellberg to Berlin_Freeper

    Who is going to check their answer to make sure that it’s right?

  • HUGE! President Trump Crushes It – Raises $15 Million in California in ONE DAY!

    09/20/2019 5:27:53 PM PDT · 17 of 25
    drellberg to Conserv

    Trump is raising huge sums and can afford to think big.

    He is likely to spend to win Minnesota and New Hampshire in 2020.

    If he doesn’t win New Mexico, Nevada or Virginia, he will at least force Dems to spend a lot of time and money defending them. He’ll pin them down there.

    I think his goal in CA in 2020 is to reinforce his strong electoral college numbers with a majority of the popular vote. He obviously won’t win the state, but he can narrow the popular vote (relative to 2016) by 3-5 million while he also helps a few Republicans to victory in the House.

  • Ted Cruz recommends strategy for responding to liberal 'rage'

    09/10/2019 10:33:56 AM PDT · 39 of 67
    drellberg to conservative98

    Yes, battle hatred with love. Unconditional love.

    And at the same time, hold fast to core values. Find those few things where there can be no compromise and show no weakness.

  • Trump is coming to the Bay Area for the first time as president in September

    09/03/2019 3:51:02 PM PDT · 65 of 65
    drellberg to 2ndDivisionVet

    I believe that Trump aims this round to win a plurality of the popular vote to go along with his electoral college landslide. The surest way to do that is to get Republicans in CA, NY and IL out to vote even though their (electoral) cause is hopeless. If he energizes just those three states’ Republican voters, he could easily add 2+ million. He had too few resources and not enough time in 2015-2016 to go there; but now he has both in abundance.