Posted on 09/02/2003 12:57:02 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob
Congressman Billybob Sez:
[posted 2 September 2003]
This here's the 366th Report ta the Folks Back Home from the (More er Less) Honorable Billybob, cyberCongressman from Western Carolina.
For reasons that will shortly become quite clear, I'm not gonna turn this over ta ma able assistant, J. Armor, Esq. Instead, fer the firs time ever in seven years of rattin, this column has a shared byline tween yer Congresscritter n his assistant.
We Are Running for Congress – Maybe
by John Armor and Congressman Billybob
Ballot issues always begin with a summary, to assist the voters. Here's my summary: My District needs more jobs and better schools. That means applying both book learning and common sense to what the federal government does, and doesn't do, in this District. I think my background qualifies me to be an effective Congressman. Today I announce an Exploratory Committee to find out what the good folks in Western Carolina think about that.
Mark Twain once wrote, "No one but royalty, an editor, or a man with a tapeworm has the right to use the word ‘we.' " His point was that people using the word "we" instead of "I" makes them seem pompous. Politicians seem particularly addicted to that affectation.
Well, we are running for Congress, maybe. First we explain the "we" and then the "maybe."
More than seven years ago, the (More er Less) Honorable Billybob, cyberCongressman from Western Carolina, sprang into existence in a weekly column then on AOL, under the title "Cong. Billybob Sez:"
Being a "cyberCongressman" (a word created by his "able assistant, J. Armor, Esq."), Ol' Billybob just declared himself elected and later reelected on the Internet. No fund-raising. No baby-kissing. No dreadful TV ads.
Though the approach was sometimes humorous, the intent was always serious. Every word written about political and other issues was intended to communicate legitimate analysis to knowledgeable readers. Now the time has come for someone actually to run for Congress. That cannot be Billybob, so it must be his assistant and alter ego, John Armor.
The first question that should be answered by any candidate for any office is, "Why are you running?" Some readers remember that famous Roger Mudd interview of Senator Ted Kennedy; Ted was running against President Carter, trying to take his renomination away. Mudd asked that critical question, and Kennedy hemmed and hawed in response. What little he said boiled down to this: "the nation owes me the Presidency." After that interview, Kennedy's campaign against President Carter crashed and burned.
So why are Congressman Billybob and John Armor running as a team for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina (maybe)? President Teddy Roosevelt answered that question better than anyone else. We agree with what he said. His address, "Citizenship in a Republic," included this well-known passage:
"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again,... but who does actually strive to do the deeds;... and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."
This was a brilliant speech, delivered to the faculty of the Sorbonne, drawing the distinction between academics and critics and those who actually accomplish tasks. Here's a link: http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trsorbonnespeech.html
For forty years I've worked with and for presidential candidates, Senators, Representatives, and hundreds of members of state legislatures. As a lawyer and as a political analyst, I've been deeply involved in other people's campaigns and other people's issues. It's been hard, challenging, and worthwhile work. I was honored to have those opportunities, and don't regret a moment of that (low-paid or volunteer) work.
But I've never been "the man in the arena."
Now it's time to see if the voters agree with my conclusion that I have the skills and background to be a competent Member of Congress, on my own two feet and my own merits. So why do I say I'm running but add the word "maybe"?
One of my books, Why Term Limits?, 1994, recounts the history of House elections from 1790 to 1992. A 2002 article for Contingencies, the journal of the American Academy of Actuaries, brought that research up to date. The article, "Til Death Do Us Part," also contained accurate predictions of the results in the coming House and Senate elections.
To make a very long story very short, there are certain prerequisites for any challenger to be successful in running for Congress. They are: strong personal qualifications, a capable staff, more than 1,000 able volunteers in the District, and $617,000.
Whoa, I hear you cry. That's an awfully specific number. Where'd that come from?
Starting in 1975, all federal candidates had to declare through the Federal Election Commission their total fund-raising and also give certain details on all donations of $200 and up. The average spending for winning candidates for the House in 1976 was $97,700. That number has risen steadily over the years, so the average for winners was more than $900,000 in 2002. But there is a second set of numbers to track – how much money must a challenger raise to have a real chance of defeating an incumbent?
This number also tracks upwards over the decades. It projects to $617,000 in 2004. And this is a workable number in a highly rural District like N.C. 11, with only two TV stations and one daily newspaper, and therefore very low advertising costs compared to most House Districts.
Notice that so far I've said nothing about the interests of the District, or the possible opposing candidates. That is deliberate. Every year there are hundreds of "show the flag" candidates who file to run, raise less than $50,000, and hope that lightning will strike and they will win. Often, such candidates get the nominations of their party against an entrenched incumbent of the other party. And then those hopeless candidates get stomped into the mud in the general election – unless lightning DOES strike and the incumbent gets caught in a nasty scandal or gets convicted of a serious crime.
I refuse to engage in a hopeless campaign. I've already met the first two prerequisites – my own background, and lining up a capable staff. But I shouldn't run, and won't, unless I meet the other two requirements – finding enough volunteers and raising enough money for a competent campaign. I won't make that final decision until January, 2004, just before the N.C. filing deadline of 27 February. (The primary election is now set for 4 May; however, the N.C. Supreme Court has just declared the election law here unconstitutional. If the law remains tied up in court, the primary may be delayed until September, as it was in the last election for state offices.)
The 11th District is Western Carolina, the triangle at the end of the state from Asheville west to Tennessee and Kentucky. The primary industries here are tourism and agriculture. Tourism centers on the Great Smokies National Park. The agriculture is largely tobacco, though of necessity many farmers are moving into other forms of truck farming. The bleeding area of the economy is the loss of manufacturing jobs – a problem common to many parts of the United States. And the two groups who are more prominent here than in most Districts are the Cherokee and retired people.
The Eastern Band of the Cherokee are centered on Cherokee, N.C., on the edge of the Great Smokies. The tribe has done an excellent job of economic development on its own. But it still needs additional help to reach a good standard of living across the board. Retired people are settling in Western Carolina because the climate is excellent, the costs of living are low, and the people here are as friendly as the day is long.
Another factor is the nature of the businesses in Western Carolina. Six of the ten largest employers here are universities or hospitals. In short, there are very few "major" employers. Given the geography and challenges of transportation through the mountains, the heart of employment in Western Carolina is, and will probably remain, tens of thousands of small businesses, family farms, and the like. Small businesses are more susceptible to being shut down by dumb decisions and policies of government, because they lack the clout to defend themselves.
The last major factor is that public education is in a steady and ultimately disastrous decline in Western Carolina. This, too, is common across the country, but the folks of this District will probably be more willing to accept and undertake the kinds of changes like student testing, teacher testing, school choice and charter schools, that more enlightened communities across the nation are already adopting. Also, bureaucrats should help rather than hinder those parents who choose to home-school their children.
What aspects of my background match the needs of the 11th District? I grew up in the 1st District of Maryland, the Eastern Shore. The Eastern Shore is almost as flat as a pool table. It's located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Chesapeake Bay. At first glance, it would seem to have nothing in common with Western Carolina, far from blue water and squarely in the Blue Ridge Mountains (the southern end of the Appalachian chain). Yet appearances can be deceiving.
The Eastern Shore's two main industries are tourism and truck farming. It faces a major challenge to attract and keep manufacturing jobs. And its long term success depends on improving public education. So, whether I knew it or not, I was preparing for this race in this District from my first experiences with the people and economy in Salisbury, Maryland.
What are the background and experiences that I bring to bear for Western Carolina? First of all, I'm "over-educated." I graduated from Yale, from the University of Maryland Law School, and have completed the course work but not the dissertation for a Ph.D. in Public Policy from American University. Along the way, I've met more than a few people who hold a Ph.D., but are dumb as a hoe handle in the real world. Do I share that disability?
One side of my employment history answers that question. My first real job was working on an assembly line at the Washington Aluminum Company's Westport Plant. I've done door-to-door sales, been a short-order cook, and run a retail business. (That retail business failed, by the way, which taught me two lessons. The first is, "These are the problems that a small businessman faces." The other lesson is, "Don't do that again.")
I've accomplished some fairly difficult tasks. I've published six books (so far). I've published more than 500 articles (so far). And I've filed 17 briefs in the US Supreme Court, with a good track record in victories. I must give up filing Supreme Court briefs after becoming an official candidate for Congress. The reason has to do with the Constitution, and the separation of powers between the branches of government. While there is no legal barrier to a Member of Congress filing a brief in the Court, I don't consider that appropriate and would not do it .
Bottom line, I believe I offer the necessary combination of skills in public policy and law, combined with having my feet on the ground in a common-sense way. The voters in Western Carolina will, of course, decide that issue. Much more information about my District and about me than can be presented in a mere column, appears on my campaign (maybe) website. All readers of this are welcome to click over to that website and see what it offers: http://www.ArmorforCongress.com
Lastly, many readers who've known me for some time will want to help my effort. Here are three steps I'd appreciate your taking:
A. If you live in Western Carolina, sign up as a volunteer. I have a short list of very important actions I'd like you to take, depending on your available time and skills.
B. If you don't live in Western Carolina, but have relatives, friends or colleagues who live here, contact them, give them a link to this column, and suggest that they consider getting involved in this effort. And let me know who they are and where they are, so I can follow up with them.
C. Whether or not you live in Western Carolina, if you believe I will make a capable Member of Congress, send me a contribution. All contributions are welcome, and I expect the average donation for about three-fourths of my supporters to be about $35. It all adds up.
My campaign website shows the e-mail and snail mail addresses to use, along with much other information. When the volunteers and the dollars in hand add up to the practical targets I have set, then I can write another column taking away the word "maybe" from the title. Both of us – Congressman Billybob and John Armor – thank you for your support.
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About the Author: For this column, nothing need be said, here.
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(C) 2003, Congressman Billybob & John Armor. All rights reserved.
List of Zipcodes in the 11th District:
28018, 28019, 28024, 28040, 28043*, 28074, 28139*, 28160, 28167, 28701, 28702, 28704, 28707, 28708, 28709, 28710, 28711, 28712, 28713, 28714*, 28715, 28716, 28717, 28718, 28719, 28720, 28721, 28722, 28723, 28725, 28726, 28727, 28728, 28729, 28730, 28731, 28732, 28733, 28735, 28736, 28737, 28738, 28740*, 28741, 28742, 28743, 28745, 28746, 28747, 28748, 28749, 28750, 28751, 28752*, 28753, 28754, 28755, 28756, 28757, 28758, 28760, 28761*, 28762, 28763, 28766, 28768, 28770, 28771, 28772, 28773, 28774, 28775, 28776, 28778, 28779, 28781, 28783, 28784, 28786, 28787, 28788, 28790, ALL 288 zip codes, 28901, 28902, 28904, 28905, 28906, 28909. * These are only partly in the 11th District. [This list probably contains some inaccuracies, since I have two sources for it and they do not agree.]
Our farmers are more productive than any others in the world, but there aren't many of them. Only a few Districts still have agriculture as a dominant factor. But NC 11 is one of those.
The people and the Districts for which agriculture still is a primary concern have got to stick together.
Billybob
yupper
Cripes - ad exec, lawyer and now Congresscritter. Well, I guess we can support you anyway - there doesn't seem to be any kind of three strikes law in NC.
Not mine to answer, but I'm somewhat familiar with the area and its natural beauty. Y'know, the Mountain and Western states (e.g., Colorado, Montana, Utah, Nevada, et al) are also huge tourist destinations. And, at the same time, they maintain large mining and timber industries (though, admittedly, less large than they used to be).
But the point is: tourism and extractive industries can co-exist. And I wonder why the enviros (and the politicians who respond to the greens) don't believe they can. Could it be because they have another agenda...???
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