Nuts and Bolts in California

ChronWatch (website associated with SF Chronicle) ^ | 12 August 2003 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Congressman Billybob]

You're missing the point. Regardless of turnout, voters are going to have trouble voting in an election of 195 candidates. THAT is the central point. And I am NOT a casual observer of politics -- I've worked for a dozen presidential candidates, among others.

I'll make you these two wagers based on the mechanical difficulty of voting for one of 195 candidates. In both cases, I owe you $25 if I'm wrong. You owe me $1 if I'm right. 1. The total vote on the Davis recall question will exceed the total vote for all candidates running to replace him. 2. The average of the polls for how people will vote, as of the day before the election, will not match the votes cast. Specifically, the totals for Schwarzenegger, Bustamante and Simon together will be higher than poll results predict, and the totals for all other candidates together will be lower than predicted.

Billybob

[sd-joe]

Re #16.

>> "If Davis resigned ... Bustamante does not "become Governor." He only becomes "acting Governor". <<

There seems to be some well informed argument about this. The law does not use the term "acting Governor" just Governor.

I understand and agree that the recall election will still be held if Davis resigns, BUT IF the DemonRats get enough votes and DEFEAT the recall, and Davis has resigned isn't Cruz the Gov. Are you SURE that the yes-no question "would not appear on the ballot"? I don't see any law that states that.

I don't think that any of the court cases have raised the question of whether the yes-no question disappears from the ballot if Davis resigns. This is now the crucial issue.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

While I enjoy a good wager, you are getting off topic. I don't disagree with whatever central point you are making, that not everyone will vote on the 2nd question. I think most will, but you may have some true believers against the recall who will obstain. I don't care, since otherwise those are Bustamante votes, but I agree that will happen.

My point (still) is that the turnout will not be "low" it will not even been "moderate" it will be historic highs.

I've got another wager, that it will be higher than the 32% you mentioned, and I'll gladly give you the 25-1 odds that it exceeds that.

[sd-joe]

Well yes, the resignation concept has been discussed over and over, but there is one technical point that I don't think has been thoroughly looked at.

It is generally agreed that a Davis resignation does not stop the recall.

However, there is not so much agreement on exactly what happens with the recall election if he does resign first. This gets into a somewhat grey area of the law.

Assume he resigns, and the recall goes forward, there are good arguments on the following points:

1. Does Cruz become "acting" gov, or "full" gov in the interim? There are major ramifications in this.

2. Does Question 1 still appear on the ballot, or does it disappear from the ballot. This also has major ramifications.

You assume that Cruz has gone against the power structure of the Demo party. This may be true, or they may be playing a deep game. No one knows what pressure can be brought on Cruz when it is needed. Remember the games played in New Jersey.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

1. Does Cruz become "acting" gov, or "full" gov in the interim? There are major ramifications in this.

No there aren't ramifications, because it still appears on the ballot. We aren't recalling Davis, we are recalling the Governor. Since it has already been certified, the Constitution is quite clear. That is why you aren't hearing about this.

I know you've been burned by the Demo Party many times, but there is a difference between being Suspicious, and making them The All Powerful Boogie Man.

Its on the ballot, Gray's not stepping anywhere but out on Oct 7. The only thing to be frightened about it Cruz somehow coming through, which currently looks unlikely in the polls.

[daviddennis]

People's Rep and I have had our differences, but I have to swing my support solidly behind him in terms of recall turnout. There is an immense amount of interest in this election, and - more to the point - it has compelling candidates people are enthusiastic about going out and supporting. Whether you're for McClintock or Schwarzenegger or even Ariana Huffington, you know that there is at least one person on the ballot who expresses your views in a way that could make you proud.

It's possible that I'm too much of a geek about this, but the ballot is also going to be less confusing than Congressman BillyBob thinks.

The order is going to look like this: (I'm using a random order of letters here, so don't hold me to that being correct):

Edwards
Evans
Santos
Schwarzenegger
Smith
Stevens
McAfee
McClintock
Munoz
(etc)

In other words, only the first letter is scrambled; the ballot is alphabetical past the first letter. So all you need to do is find your favourite letter and slip down the alphabet to your candidate of choice.

If that's reasonably well explained, I don't think it will be all that difficult.

Schwarzennegger does have a huge advantage in the length of his name, which will stand out like a sore thumb no matter what the order is. (I forget who pointed this out, but it's a perfectly valid observation).

D

[ChewedGum]

Schwarzennegger does have a huge advantage in the length of his name, which will stand out like a sore thumb no matter what the order is.

Fascinating observation!

Gum

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Well my whole point is just that I don't want people Out Of State to get the impression that we are getting jaded, or that this is like most elections. Its unlike anything I've ever seen, the mood here is rather intense. (The Demo's talking point of "circus" might give people the impression we are getting disconnected, but as my local friends keep telling me when I was yelling at the TV; I like circuses, they are fun.)

The turn out will be grand, a sight to behold.

So will the use of a vote as a referendum against liberal tax-and-spend politics. May it spread across the land like a wild fire.

[Congressman Billybob]

My article would have been the same, even if I'd said nothing about total turnout. Laundry-list and difficult ballots have been researched to a fare-thee-well by people with way too much time on their hands (like my coilleagues in the Ph.D. program at American University).

The bottom line is absolutely established from long, hard, clear examples. The more complicated the ballot is, the less voters will be able to cast their votes successfully in accord with their intentions going into the voting booth. In fact, that's a general truth of human nature -- the harder it is to do anything, the fewer people will succeed in doing it.

The only reason we are not going to see months of litigation by lawyers in $1,000 suits with an ax to grind, after this election, on behalf of allegedly "disenfranchised" voters, is this: Gray Davis will be overwhelmingly recalled. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be overwhelmingly elected to replace him. The quarreled "votes" will be insufficient to change the results even if assumed all to go in the preferred direction.

I hope there is a higher turnout, rather than a lower one. The higher the turnout, the less likely it is that the California "public service" unions can swing the election in favor of Davis remaining, or worst case, Bustamante taking his place. (But the unions will have a tough time doing either, because they are going to suffer massive defections among the rank and file -- there will be "Ah-nold Democrats" just as there were "Reagan Democrats," though for slightly different reasons.)

I emphasize -- again -- that I am dealing with what IS based on facts on the ground, rather than what OUGHT TO BE based on pure theory. I have no objection to theoretical analysis and spend a lot of time on it. But that has nearly nothing to do with this unique election in California.

Billybob

[daviddennis]

That's why I said I might be too much of a nerd to really understand this. To me, the election system is pretty simple and I understood it from the first time it was explained to me. But I notice that many, many people have an exceptionally difficult time figuring it out.

Many people still don't understand clearly that there are two ballots and don't realize that Gray Davis can't be on the second, and the implications this has.

So you are probably right that the non-alphabetical ballot will be too confusing for many, and the conclusions you have taken from it are accurate, even in my view.

If what you say is true, we can prove it by counting the number of people who voted for or against the recall and compare it to the number who voted on the replacement candidate.

D

[caveat emptor]

With all due respect, Sir, both to the time you have spent researching the arcana of the mechanics of the nuts and bolts of the process of the upcoming California gubernatorial recall election as well as similar and dissimilar elections in other jurisdictions and to the extreme frustration likely to be experienced by all those average, and less than, and more than, Janes and Joes (facing the smorgasbord of 195 (or whatever) candidates) not having cards "with easy to-follow instruction(s) ...printed in large black letters (for the vision impaired) that state a simple message: ''VOTE FOR JOHN SMITH ON LINE 72.'', just how difficult do you think it's going to be for even the most somnolent of those who manage to find their way to a polling place to find as well the name "Arnold Schwartzenneger", even if the ballot were to be as poorly formatted as this sentence?

[scan58]

That was a crappy sentence, but you get 10 points for "somnolent".
OK, so I bumped it back to the top. It's not because I'm nice. I just know how it is.

[Congressman Billybob]

Based on experiences in many jurisdictions, not just Florida in 2000, I think the level of "spoiled ballots" on the second question in California (who will replace Davis?) will be higher than Florida and on a par with Chicago as a percentage. In short, I think the physical nature of the cattle-call replacement vote will produce an all-time high in the percentage of people who come in to vote, do vote on the Davis recall, but then fail to cast a valid ballot on the second question.

This is a projection, based on experience. Votes on the two parts of the California ballot will be separately tabulated. For instance, if a voter votes on the Davis question but fails to vote for a replacement -- which is the legal effect of a partially spoiled ballot -- the first vote will nonetheless count.

The press will use exit polls to project the winner. Since I don't think the replacement vote will be close, the winner will be known right after the polls close. But the result will probably not be official until the final results are announced by the Secretary of States office, probably three days after the election. At that point the total voters on the two parts of the ballot will be known, and my projection will be proven or disproven.

(Also, as noted above, the meaningless cases about "disenfranchisement" will follow quickly, and be shortly dismissed.)

Billybob

[gogeo]

Billybob, that was a very cogent analysis.


I'll say that the ballot may not be as complicated as you say. There are only two questions, even if there are 192 candidates.

[supercat]

In other words, only the first letter is scrambled; the ballot is alphabetical past the first letter. So all you need to do is find your favourite letter and slip down the alphabet to your candidate of choice.

Actually, from what I've read, the scrambled alphabet will be used for all letters in the sort, not just the first.

Thus, Mary [Carey] Cook and Gary Coleman come before Todd Carson since "O" comes before "A".

[supercat]

Schwarzennegger does have a huge advantage in the length of his name, which will stand out like a sore thumb no matter what the order is. (I forget who pointed this out, but it's a perfectly valid observation).

Actually, Arnold's Name isn't really that long compared with the others on the list:

DAVID LAUGHING HORSE ROBINSON
NED ROSCOE
DANIEL J. RAMIREZ
CHRISTOPHER RANKEN
JEFF RAINFORTH
KURT E. RIGHTMYER
DANIEL W. RICHARDS
KEVIN RICHTER
REVA RENEE RENZ
SHARON RUSHFORD
GEORGY RUSSELL
MICHAEL J. WOZNIAK
DANIEL T. WATTS
NATHAN WHITECLOUD WALTON
MAURICE WALKER
CHUCK WALKER
LINGEL H. WINTERS
C.T. WEBER
JIM WEIR
BRYAN QUINN
MICHAEL JACKSON
JOHN "JACK" MORTENSEN
DARRYL L. MOBLEY
JEFFREY L. MOCK
BRUCE MARGOLIN
GINO MARTORANA
PAUL MARIANO
ROBERT C. MANNHEIM
FRANK A. MACALUSO,_JR.
PAUL "CHIP" MAILANDER
DENNIS DUGGAN MCMAHON
MIKE MCNEILLY
MIKE P. MCCARTHY
BOB MCCLAIN
TOM MCCLINTOCK
JONATHAN MILLER
CARL A. MEHR
SCOTT A. MEDNICK
DORENE MUSILLI
VAN VO
PAUL W. VANN
JAMES M. VANDEVENTER,_JR.
BILL VAUGHN
MARC VALDEZ
MOHAMMAD ARIF
ANGELYNE
DOUGLAS ANDERSON
BROOKE ADAMS
IRIS ADAM
ALEX-ST._JAMES
JIM HOFFMANN
KEN HAMIDI
SARA ANN HANLON
IVAN A. HALL
JOHN J. "JACK" HICKEY
RALPH A. HERNANDEZ
C. STEPHEN HENDERSON
ARIANNA HUFFINGTON
ART BROWN
JOEL BRITTON
AUDIE BOCK
VIK S. BAJWA
BADI BADIOZAMANI
VIP BHOLA
JOHN W. BEARD
ED BEYER
JOHN CHRISTOPHER BURTON
CRUZ M. BUSTAMANTE
CHERYL BLY-CHESTER
B.E. SMITH
DAVID RONALD SAMS
JAMIE ROSEMARY SAFFORD
LAWRENCE STEVEN STRAUSS
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER
GEORGE B. SCHWARTZMAN
MIKE SCHMIER
DARRIN H. SCHEIDLE
BILL SIMON
RICHARD J. SIMMONS
CHRISTOPHER SPROUL
RANDALL D. SPRAGUE
TIM SYLVESTER
JACK LOYD GRISHAM
JAMES H. GREEN
GARRETT GRUENER
GEROLD LEE GORMAN
RICHARD ANDREW GOSSE
LEO GALLAGHER
JOE GUZZARDI
JON W. ZELLHOEFER
PAUL NAVE
ROBERT C. NEWMAN_II
BRIAN TRACY
A. LAVAR TAYLOR
WILLIAM TSANGARES
PATRICIA G. TILLEY
DIANE BEALL TEMPLIN
MARY "MARY CAREY" COOK
GARY COLEMAN
TODD CARSON
PETER MIGUEL CAMEJO
WILLIAM "BILL" S. CHAMBERS
MICHAEL CHELI
ROBERT CULLENBINE
D. (LOGAN DARROW) CLEMENTS
S. ISSA
BOB LYNN EDWARDS
ERIC KOREVAAR
STEPHEN L. KNAPP
KELLY P. KIMBALL
D.E. KESSINGER
EDWARD "ED" KENNEDY
TREK THUNDER KELLY
JERRY KUNZMAN
PETER V. UEBERROTH
BILL PRADY
DARIN PRICE
GREGORY J. PAWLIK
LEONARD PADILLA
RONALD JASON PALMIERI
CHARLES "CHUCK" PINEDA,_JR.
HEATHER PETERS
ROBERT "BUTCH" DOLE
SCOTT DAVIS
RONALD J. FRIEDMAN
GENE FORTE
DIANA FOSS
LORRAINE (ABNER ZURD) FONTANES
WARREN FARRELL
DAN FEINSTEIN
LARRY FLYNT
CALVIN Y. LOUIE_CPA
DICK LANE
TODD RICHARD LEWIS
GARY LEONARD

[JulieRNR21]

BRAVO BUMP for a most interesting article.

Your analysis makes perfect sense to me.

Moreover I hope that both Simon & McClintock consider withdrawing from the race if they are in single digits after labor Day.

I fear they may syphon votes from Arnold & thus give a win to Bustamonte.

[nopardons]

It doesn't matter if either or both Bill & Tom leave, after Labor Day. WHY ? Because their names will still be on the ballot ... that's the way it is, for this election; unfortunately.

[lepton]

Cruz Bustamante, Bill Simon, and Arnold Schwarzenegger

"Sc" normally comes before "Si"

[lepton]

The day before the election, all candidates with any budget at all will run advertisements emphasizing their ballot positions – ''Vote for John Smith on line 72.''

Won't that number change in each of the 80 districts? Advertising each would be tough.